Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldnтАЩt there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.
By "account for," do you mean counter? I certainly don't think swings toward the Democrats in other states cause losses for Democrats in New York.
Unless the swing state is exactly the major destination of the blue exodus from NY
What blue exodus? I don't think there's any such exodus, and there are undoubtedly also liberal folks moving in to New York.
I was talking about the hypothetical, how you can have a causal relationship of NY red turn and swing states bluing.
That's why I didn't mention Florida.
Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldnтАЩt there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
In theory, but there could be countervailing trends by remaining residents in places like Long Island.
Yea. Exactly my point. There is likely not a causal relationship. But some other things caused the movements in FL, swing states, and NY.
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.