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axlee's avatar

I bet the D friendly upscale electorate is not constant either. Would be a realignment further to D?

You might be correct that the downscale realignment Redding is bigger than the upscale realignment bluing, in the rust belt. I am not sure it is the case in GA/NC/TX where the downscale already went thru southern realignment but the upscale realignment is ongoing.

BTW, if there is no realignment, just pure migration redistribution, then a constant country level, some states Redding doesn’t mean there is always another state bluing. Think if we had only two states CA/TX, and the net migration CA->TX being redder than CA but bluer than TX. A static country level means both CA and TX getting bluer.

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Mark's avatar

Right. I should have clarified that I was talking mostly about Pennsylvania in that response. It tracks some nationally as well, but not nearly as much in Texas or certainly Georgia, where the D-friendly upscale electorate is experiencing constant growth compared to those in the Rust Belt.

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