They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.