Someone yesterday (Mark?) asked what kinds of places Harris was making gains this cycle. This is precisely the kind of place where you might expect that.
Someone yesterday (Mark?) asked what kinds of places Harris was making gains this cycle. This is precisely the kind of place where you might expect that.
If you look at the swings towards Dems from 2016 -> 2020 that are over 5% they are all small to mid-sized states: (In order from highest swing to lowest): VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA, ME, NE, KS, MN, GA, RI, OR. I'm still skeptical it's anything but noise but states like the above might account for slippage in FL/NY.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.
Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldnтАЩt there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.
The places Dems have been gaining lately tend to be ancestrally GOP, relatively white, and relatively well educated. I think PA10 fits the bill on all three of those.
TBH, ancestrally is probably used too loosely and there are few places where political traditions go back to ancestors. The only one that comes to mind is Eastern TN defying all Southern logic and being Republican.
The realignment of the 1900тАЩs means few regions have political traditions that go back far enough. And then, the early 2000тАЩs have only solidified that. No more liberal Republicans representing New England or conservative Democrats representing the South.
Someone yesterday (Mark?) asked what kinds of places Harris was making gains this cycle. This is precisely the kind of place where you might expect that.
Could be wrong, I think he meant by demographic segments.
Yeah, there could be places with movements across all segments. The swing state level polls sometime miss these movements.
If you look at the swings towards Dems from 2016 -> 2020 that are over 5% they are all small to mid-sized states: (In order from highest swing to lowest): VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA, ME, NE, KS, MN, GA, RI, OR. I'm still skeptical it's anything but noise but states like the above might account for slippage in FL/NY.
They might, but we should also look at the 2020 -> 2022 swing. Nate Cohn says that his polling data makes him think some of those patterns from the midterms may continue into 2024. That would mean relative gains for us in, well, exactly the right places: PA, MI, WI. Maybe AZ as well. And Midwest suburbs such as NE-02, Des Moines (IA-03), and KS-03. Offset by biggish losses in FL and NY.
In those states I listed Democrats generally outperformed expectations in the midterms too so I think both could be true. It may just be some shitty outliers in FL/NY or something else too though.
By "account for," do you mean counter? I certainly don't think swings toward the Democrats in other states cause losses for Democrats in New York.
Unless the swing state is exactly the major destination of the blue exodus from NY
What blue exodus? I don't think there's any such exodus, and there are undoubtedly also liberal folks moving in to New York.
I was talking about the hypothetical, how you can have a causal relationship of NY red turn and swing states bluing.
That's why I didn't mention Florida.
Yeah. FL vs NY case is kinda interesting as well. NY is the top source of transplants into FL, and obviously the transplants are quite red. So everything being equal, shouldnтАЩt there be a red exodus (this is not hypothetical) that turns NY further bluer?
In theory, but there could be countervailing trends by remaining residents in places like Long Island.
Yea. Exactly my point. There is likely not a causal relationship. But some other things caused the movements in FL, swing states, and NY.
Account for the popular vote polls to make them work with the polls showing a drop in FL/NY. I'm skeptical of all of it but for the sake of the exercise, those states I mentioned may account for it.
The places Dems have been gaining lately tend to be ancestrally GOP, relatively white, and relatively well educated. I think PA10 fits the bill on all three of those.
Perhaps a na├пve question, but what do you mean by "ancestrally GOP"? Republican since the time of Lincoln?
TBH, ancestrally is probably used too loosely and there are few places where political traditions go back to ancestors. The only one that comes to mind is Eastern TN defying all Southern logic and being Republican.
The realignment of the 1900тАЩs means few regions have political traditions that go back far enough. And then, the early 2000тАЩs have only solidified that. No more liberal Republicans representing New England or conservative Democrats representing the South.