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Kuka's avatar

A 9-10 point swing in one district need not mean a 9-10 point swing statewide. There might be relatively few districts like PA 10: suburbanish district that had not yet swung heavily towards Democrats. Most of the Philly suburban districts have already swung towards the Dems, with Bucks county showing the weakest swing. Parts of PA 10 are somewhat like the Philly suburbs: highly educated voters who might have supported Republicans in the past. If those voters are slower to move than their Philly area counterparts, and there are few if any other districts that are late swinger, then this swing might be somewhat isolated.

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Kuka's avatar

Hence a 9-10 point swing in PA 10 might only translate into a 1-3 point swing statewide, even without any countervailing swing in other areas towards Trump.

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SanJoseAJ's avatar

Yeah, we don't really disagree. I guess what I was saying was PA-10 represents a certain type of geographic/demographic, suburb/exurb. Its significant swing towards the left needs to be offset by the rightward swing in other dems/geographic areas to keep the entire state on the same level of competitiveness as 2020.

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