I'm increasingly convinced that it's wishful thinking that the 2022 electorate is gonna show up, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Midterm turnout has always skewed upscale and highly educated. In the past, that's meant Republican-leaning, but especially after Dobbs, it meant an electorate disproportionately friendly to Democrats in the new…
I'm increasingly convinced that it's wishful thinking that the 2022 electorate is gonna show up, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Midterm turnout has always skewed upscale and highly educated. In the past, that's meant Republican-leaning, but especially after Dobbs, it meant an electorate disproportionately friendly to Democrats in the new coalition. If more downscale and less educated voters show up in 2024, I suspect it cancels out the midterm turnout model and looks more like the 2016 and 2020 electorates that were much more Republican. Sure, Biden still won with the 2020 electorate, but after four years of additional downscale, less-educated voter realignment, I'm increasingly suspicious we'll look back on swing state polling as being too generous to Trump.
I bet the D friendly upscale electorate is not constant either. Would be a realignment further to D?
You might be correct that the downscale realignment Redding is bigger than the upscale realignment bluing, in the rust belt. I am not sure it is the case in GA/NC/TX where the downscale already went thru southern realignment but the upscale realignment is ongoing.
BTW, if there is no realignment, just pure migration redistribution, then a constant country level, some states Redding doesn’t mean there is always another state bluing. Think if we had only two states CA/TX, and the net migration CA->TX being redder than CA but bluer than TX. A static country level means both CA and TX getting bluer.
Right. I should have clarified that I was talking mostly about Pennsylvania in that response. It tracks some nationally as well, but not nearly as much in Texas or certainly Georgia, where the D-friendly upscale electorate is experiencing constant growth compared to those in the Rust Belt.
I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.
I'm increasingly convinced that it's wishful thinking that the 2022 electorate is gonna show up, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Midterm turnout has always skewed upscale and highly educated. In the past, that's meant Republican-leaning, but especially after Dobbs, it meant an electorate disproportionately friendly to Democrats in the new coalition. If more downscale and less educated voters show up in 2024, I suspect it cancels out the midterm turnout model and looks more like the 2016 and 2020 electorates that were much more Republican. Sure, Biden still won with the 2020 electorate, but after four years of additional downscale, less-educated voter realignment, I'm increasingly suspicious we'll look back on swing state polling as being too generous to Trump.
I bet the D friendly upscale electorate is not constant either. Would be a realignment further to D?
You might be correct that the downscale realignment Redding is bigger than the upscale realignment bluing, in the rust belt. I am not sure it is the case in GA/NC/TX where the downscale already went thru southern realignment but the upscale realignment is ongoing.
BTW, if there is no realignment, just pure migration redistribution, then a constant country level, some states Redding doesn’t mean there is always another state bluing. Think if we had only two states CA/TX, and the net migration CA->TX being redder than CA but bluer than TX. A static country level means both CA and TX getting bluer.
Right. I should have clarified that I was talking mostly about Pennsylvania in that response. It tracks some nationally as well, but not nearly as much in Texas or certainly Georgia, where the D-friendly upscale electorate is experiencing constant growth compared to those in the Rust Belt.
Of course, the downscale electorate is also disproportionately non-white...
I probably didn't make clear enough that my comment was primarily focused on Pennsylvania rather than nationally. But even as it applies to the nonwhite working-class, plenty of tea leaves are pointing to an education-based realignment in every racial category. We'll have to wait four weeks to find out if that materializes, but it's baked into my theory that higher Hispanic turnout in Reading and Allentown than in the midterm will at this point probably net votes for Trump.
Yes, you and I fundamentally disagree on how much nonwhite working class realignment is going on, but I'll admit some swing that direction from 2020 is possible. I'll also point out that the presidential year electorate pulls in a lot of younger voters, including college students.