Morning Digest: What does the first-quarter fundraising data tell us? Quite a lot!
Dive into the numbers with our comprehensive new charts
Leading Off
1Q Fundraising
With the first fundraising quarter of the year now in the books, The Downballot is pleased to present our comprehensive charts rounding up financial disclosures for every notable candidate for Congress.
It goes without saying that money isn't everything in politics—if it were, rich self-funders would win every time—but no campaign can function without it. Not only is cash essential for communicating with voters, fundraising strength sends important signals to future donors and major institutional backers, who will base their decisions on whether to get involved in part on whether a candidate is doing what they need to do to win.
This early data, therefore, gives us insight into who's off to a hot start and who still has something to prove—and much more. Just before the end of the quarter, we posed five questions we were eager to answer once new fundraising reports came in.
Now that we have the data in hand, we can start answering those questions. But as with everything in politics, sometimes the answers aren't clear-cut—and sometimes, those answers change as an election cycle progresses.
1) Which Democrat in Illinois' House delegation starts off ahead in the Senate primary?
Three Illinois Democrats in the House could all run to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin if he retires—or primary him, if they have the courage: Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Lauren Underwood.
Krishnamoorthi, though, would begin the race with a massive fundraising advantage. In the first quarter, he brought in almost $2.9 million and has stockpiled $19 million to date—numbers that make him look more like a candidate for the Senate than the House.
His two potential rivals raised much more modest sums: Underwood took in $380,000 and had $1.1 million banked, while Kelly raised just $180,000 but had $2 million on hand.
Several other Illinois Democrats, including Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, could also run. But unlike House candidates, state and local officials cannot transfer funds to a Senate account, so she'd be starting from scratch. (Such candidates can, however, issue refunds to previous donors and ask them to give to their federal accounts instead.)
2) Do early launches set two Minnesota Democrats above the rest?
A pair of Minnesota Democrats quickly jumped into the race to succeed Sen. Tina Smith after her surprise retirement announcement in February, but neither raised the kind of money that might keep potential rivals out of the race.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who launched her bid the same day Smith said she would not run again, took in $450,000 and finished the quarter with $370,000 available. Former state Sen. Melisa Lopez Franzen, who joined the contest a month later, raised $160,000 from donors but wound up with $250,000 left over thanks to $100,000 in self-funding.
But the top Democrat still weighing the race outdid them both. Rep. Angie Craig, though still not a declared candidate, hauled in $1.2 million and had $1.1 million in her war chest. Craig previously said she'd decide whether to run sometime this month.
3) Will a Louisiana hardliner scare off other primary challengers to a GOP incumbent?
State Treasurer John Fleming has his sights on unseating Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary, but he hasn't sold donors on his vision just yet.
Cassidy, despised by the MAGA faithful for his occasional apostasies, raised $1 million in the first three months of the year and concluded the quarter with $7.5 million stashed away.
But Fleming, a physician and former congressman who's also a Subway franchisee, pulled in just $260,000. Keeping him afloat is $2 million in self-funding, leaving him with a balance of $2.2 million. His soft haul from donors, however, is unlikely to deter other Republicans eager to knock off the incumbent.
4) Does fundraising back up an ailing Democrat's claim he'll seek reelection?
Well, we just couldn't wait to answer this one—it was our lead story in yesterday's Morning Digest. The very short answer is "no," but if you missed our complete take, read on to find out why we think Georgia Rep. David Scott looks particularly vulnerable.
5) How are House candidates doing early in top-tier races?
It'll be a while before most House races come online, but a number of candidates have already launched aggressive early challenges to potentially vulnerable incumbents. In competitive races, though, Democrats are off to a far better start.
Thirteen Democrats in 10 different Republican-held districts that are likely to be contested in 2026 raised six figures in the first quarter, with nine bringing in more than $300,000.
At the top of the list was dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who hauled in a giant $3 million for a special election that never happened after Donald Trump withdrew Elise Stefanik's nomination as UN ambassador. Gendebien says he'll still run for New York's conservative 21st District next year, and he starts off well-positioned, with $2 million in his account. (Stefanik doesn't seem inclined to seek reelection, though she has $8.5 million saved up in case she does.)
These include hopefuls like Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza, who brought in $810,000 for her campaign against GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's swingy 6th District, finishing with $730,000. Ciscomani, meanwhile, raised $1.2 million and had the same amount on hand.
By contrast, just two Republicans seeking to flip Democratic seats broke into six-figure territory. The best showing came from San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who raised $420,000 for his bid to defeat Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in California's blue-tilting 49th District and ended with $390,000 banked. During the same timeframe, Levin took in $670,000 and had a comparable sum left over.
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Senate
ME-Sen
Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood plans to seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins next year, Politico reports.
Wood served as an official at End Citizens United, a prominent progressive organization with a history of spending significant sums in both Democratic primaries and general elections. He later became chief of staff to then-Rep. Katie Porter of California in 2020 but moved back to Maine the following year. Woods has not spoken publicly about his plans for 2026.
Democrats plan to target Collins, who has spent the last six years as the lone Republican representing any of New England's six states in either chamber of Congress, but no heavyweight names have announced yet. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is termed out of her current post, has not ruled out running, though the 77-year-old Democrat also doesn't appear to be preparing for a campaign.
MI-Sen
Abdul El-Sayed, who recently finished a stint as Wayne County's health director, announced Thursday that he was seeking the Democratic nomination for Michigan's open Senate seat. El-Sayed quickly earned an endorsement from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who previously supported his unsuccessful 2018 campaign for governor.
El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim to serve in the Senate, launched his new effort weeks after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow kicked off her campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, a fellow Democrat. Several other Democrats are also eyeing this race, and Politico's Nicholas Wu anticipates that Rep. Haley Stevens and state Rep. Joe Tate will both announce "in the coming weeks." Former Rep. Mike Rogers currently has the GOP side to himself, though he could also face intraparty opposition.
El-Sayed is making his first run for office since losing the 2018 gubernatorial primary 52-30 to Gretchen Whitmer, who went on to win the general election months later. The candidate, who stepped down as head of Wayne County's health department earlier this month, told the Detroit Free Press, "I wanted to be a doctor but discovered pretty quickly that it was our political system that was making people sick in the first place and making it so hard to provide them the care that they needed."
El-Sayed also contrasted himself with McMorrow, who has called for Chuck Schumer to step down as minority leader. He argued in a separate interview with Wu, "Anybody who tells you that they're going to unilaterally oppose one potential candidate without knowing who the alternative is, is either unnuanced or unsophisticated."
NH-Sen, NH-02
Rep. Maggie Goodlander told WMUR on Thursday that she's decided not to run for New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat and will support fellow Rep. Chris Pappas instead.
Goodlander was the only prominent figure who had talked about opposing Pappas in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, so her decision likely means that he won't face any serious intraparty opposition.
Goodlander also used her interview to announce she'd seek a second term in the 2nd District. Kamala Harris carried this constituency, which includes the western and northern portions of the state, 51-48.
Governors
SD-Gov
State House Speaker Jon Hansen will announce next week that he's running for governor of South Dakota, the Dakota Scout reports. Hansen, who posted on social media that he has an "Announcement for the future of South Dakota" set for April 24, did not dispute the report when the site contacted him.
The governor's office is currently occupied by Larry Rhoden, a fellow Republican who was elevated from the lieutenant governorship in January. Rhoden has not yet said if he'll seek a full term next year, and several other prominent Mount Rushmore State Republicans are also eyeing this race.
WI-Gov
State Sen. Pat Testin did not rule out seeking the Republican nomination for governor when asked by WISN. Testin, who took second place in Wisconsin's 2022 primary for lieutenant governor, said, "There's a lot of speculation, a lot of names being thrown around, and so keeping options open, but right now the focus is the budget."
WisPolitics also mentions state Senate President Mary Felzkowski as a possible GOP candidate, though she doesn't appear to have publicly expressed interest.
Want early access when we release our calculations of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 House districts next week? Upgrade your subscription to paid and get your hands on the data first!
House
CA-03
Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall said Thursday that she'd challenge Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, which makes her the first notable Democrat to enter the race for California's 3rd District. Hall, a former environmental program manager, unsuccessfully challenged GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa in 2014 in the conservative 1st District.
Kiley's constituency favored Donald Trump by a small 50-47 margin last year, though the incumbent won his second term by a larger 55-45 spread. Kiley finished last month with over $900,000 banked to defend his sprawling 3rd District, which includes Sacramento's northeastern suburbs as well as California landmarks like Lake Tahoe and Death Valley.
CA-41
Bassist Tim Myers, who is best known as a former member of the pop-rock band OneRepublic, said Thursday that he would challenge longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert.
Myers is the most prominent Democrat to announce a campaign against Calvert in California's 41st District, a competitive seat that includes Palm Springs, Corona, and other communities in the Coachella Valley. The Associated Press says that the new candidate grew up in Corona but currently lives to the west in Los Angeles County.
Myers, who is 40, argued it was "time for a change" from the 71-year-old Calvert. The Republican was first elected in 1992—a campaign that Myers said took place while he was in second grade—and has represented many different communities in Southern California during his long tenure as redistricting has reshaped the state's congressional map.
The current incarnation of his seat favored Donald Trump 52-46 last year, while Calvert won his 17th term 52-48. The congressman is preparing for another tough battle: He raised $1.3 million during the first three months of the year and concluded March with a similar amount in the bank.
If Myers wins, he won't be the first celebrity musician to represent Palm Springs in the House. Republican Sonny Bono served as the city's mayor shortly before he was elected to Congress in 1994; Bono, who served with Calvert, died in office following a 1998 skiing accident.
IA-02
Former U.S. Attorney Kevin Techau announced Thursday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa's 2nd District, a former swing seat that has moved hard to the right over the last decade. Techau, who served as the top federal prosecutor for northern Iowa from 2014 to 2017, is the first prominent Democrat to enter the race.
It's possible Hinson, who declined to rule out a bid for governor last week, won't stick around to defend this constituency in the northeastern corner of the state. But if she does seek reelection, the congresswoman would begin with a huge head start in fundraising: Hinson ended March with over $2 million on hand.
Hinson was a local TV anchor before she was elected to the state House in 2016, and she earned a promotion in 2020 by narrowly unseating Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the old 1st District. Hinson, whose constituency was renumbered the following cycle after redistricting, had an easier time in 2022 in what proved to be a strong year for Iowa Republicans.
Democrats didn't seriously target her last year, and the incumbent prevailed 57-42. Donald Trump also carried the 2nd District 54-44, an increase from his 51-47 win here in 2020.
Techau, however, is hoping that anger at Elon Musk will prompt voters to take a second look at Democrats. He launched his campaign by casting Hinson as "an unabashed rubber stamp for an unelected, unaccountable, reckless billionaire" who "marches in lockstep with Elon Musk and his reckless, ruthless war on the middle class."
IL-07
Businessman Jason Friedman, who is the former head of a prominent development company, announced Thursday that he would challenge Rep. Danny Davis in the Democratic primary for Illinois' safely blue 7th District.
No one's sure, however, if the 83-year-old Davis will seek a 16th term next year. The congressman raised a mere $8,000 during the first three months of the year and finished March with about $50,000 in the bank. Davis, however, sounded all but certain to run last month when he told Politico, "I'm going to be in the fight for a long time."
NH-01
Portsmouth Assistant Mayor Jo Kelley tells the Portsmouth Herald's Jeff McMenemy she's "looking at forming an exploratory committee" for a potential campaign for the Democratic nomination. When McMenemy asked Kelley, who would be New Hampshire's first Black member of Congress, when she would make her final decision on a bid for the open 1st District, she replied, "[N]ot for a little bit."
NJ-07
Businessman Michael Roth said Thursday he would enter the busy Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey's 7th District. Roth, whom Politico previously described as a "top official" in the U.S. Small Business Administration early in the Biden administration, is seeking to flip a longtime battleground that Donald Trump carried 50-48 last year.
A trio of Democrats were already campaigning for this seat in the northwestern part of the state: Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett, former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan, and businessman Brian Varela. Others are still looking at the race.
SUCCINCT EXPLANATIONS
“Trump’s policies are not good for American businesses or high income earners. His policies are for the specific benefit of his inner circle – which just happens to include America’s foreign adversaries.”
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The Electoral College is DEI for Red States.
https://marginaliamagazine.com/the-electoral-college-is-d-e-i-for-red-states/
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QUOTE OF THE DAY?
“The American electoral system is basically 500,000 information-resistant people across a handful of states taking a guess and then going “Haha! Oops!" every two to four years. This process takes 18 months and costs four trillion dollars every time.”
– Patrick Cosmos, lawyer and perplexed election observer
I know NY AG James' mortgage issue was brought up here a couple of days ago. I personally wouldn't have cared even if there had been some light fraud - the world had changed, the rule of law is almost dead and it would laughable to look down on one of our own for something like this while Trump runs around free - but it's also looking like even that was exaggerated. She was cosigning for a family member.