Morning Digest: After Tina Smith's surprise retirement in Minnesota, one major name has already stepped up

But there's tons of interest in the state's first open Senate race in 2006

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (credit: Tina Smith campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

MN-Sen

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith unexpectedly announced Thursday that she would not seek reelection, setting off Minnesota's first open Senate race since 2006.

Smith's move instantly prompted one major Democrat, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, to declare that her "intention is to run," promising a "formal announcement later this month." Flanagan, who is a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would be the first Native American woman to ever serve in the Senate.

Flanagan's nascent campaign, though, could put her on a collision course with Gov. Tim Walz—her longtime, but perhaps former, ally. An unnamed Walz confidante tells Politico that the governor is interested in running for Smith's seat, though he has yet to confirm anything publicly. Walz is eligible to seek a third term in his current office, though he's said he hasn't decided if he'll do so.

It once seemed unthinkable that Walz, who chose Flanagan to be his running mate for his 2018 campaign, would face off against his number two. For a time last summer, in fact, it appeared the two might be headed on very different paths: After Kamala Harris picked Walz to be her vice presidential candidate, a Democratic victory would have sent Walz to D.C. while Flanagan would have become the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state.

Donald Trump's win, however, meant that Flanagan would remain the state's second-in-command, and multiple media outlets have since reported that there's "tension" between her and Walz. The Minnesota Star Tribune wrote that the governor's team was "especially irked because Flanagan had tapped Walz’s gubernatorial campaign fund without authorization for some work." Walz, though, has downplayed the reports of friction.

Several other members of the state Democratic Party—known in Minnesota as the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party—are also considering running for the Senate.

Rep. Ilhan Omar's team says she "will be talking with Minnesotans about the future of the Senate seat and DFL party in Minnesota." Omar would be the first Muslim to serve in the upper chamber.

Politico adds that two of her House colleagues, Reps. Angie Craig and Kelly Morrison, are each being encouraged to run. Neither has publicly expressed interest, though, with Craig avoiding the question when the Minnesota Star Tribune inquired. Secretary of State Steve Simon, meanwhile, "is definitely interested," an unnamed source tells MinnPost.

Multiple outlets also mention Attorney General Keith Ellison as a possible contender, though there's no word if he's thinking about running. The former congressman made history in 2006 when he became the first Muslim elected to Congress, and his successful campaign in 2018 for his current post made him the first Muslim elected to statewide office anywhere in the country.

Some Democrats, by contrast, have already taken their names out of contention. Both St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, who is running for reelection this year, and former Rep. Dean Phillips say they won't run for Smith's seat. Phillips also preemptively said he would not run for governor.

Former Sen. Al Franken, who is Smith's immediate predecessor, likewise appeared to close the door on a comeback. In a social media post, he wrote, "I look forward to supporting the candidate we nominate to work on behalf of Minnesotans in Washington."

On the GOP side, former NBA player Royce White announced he'd run in November just two days after getting crushed by Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the race for the state's other Senate seat in a 56-41 landslide. Few prominent Republicans want White, who has a long history of bigoted comments and scandals, as their standard-bearer again.

A few other Republicans with less dramatic pasts are starting to surface, though. State Sen. Julia Coleman, who is the daughter-in-law of former Sen. Norm Coleman, informed WCCO that she's thinking about running. State Sen. Karin Housley, who lost to Smith 53-42 in 2018, also tells Axios she hasn't ruled out another try.

Rep. Tom Emmer, for his part, notably didn't foreclose a bid with a statement saying he was "focused on" his duties in the House. Fellow Rep. Pete Stauber kept his own name in contention with his call for Republicans to "nominate someone who will fight for all Minnesotans and our way of life." Stauber did not say whether or not he was interested in being that nominee.

State Rep. Kristin Robbins is thinking about running, Punchbowl News says, but she's made some major enemies in the recent past. An unnamed Republican operative tells Fox News, "Robbins chaired Nikki Haley’s America Last campaign in Minnesota. Her candidacy is dead on arrival."

The Associated Press further name-drops a pair of attorneys, Ryan Wilson and Chris Madel (Wilson lost a tight 2022 race for state auditor). We're still awaiting word if either of them are thinking about running.

Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, finally, says he'll stay out of the contest.

Republicans were already talking about targeting Smith's seat just days before the senator's surprise retirement, and her departure could give them a larger opening in what's long been a light-blue state. But while Minnesota has long preferred Democrats, it backed Harris by a tight 51-47 margin last year, and neither side thinks this 4-point spread is insurmountable.

Republicans, though, have a long history of falling short in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Minnesota famously hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since President Richard Nixon carried it in 1972 as part of his 49-state landslide—the second-longest Democratic winning streak in the country. (Washington, D.C., which gained its electoral votes in 1964, has never backed a Republican.)

Democrats have also been a formidable force in state-level contests. The GOP last won a statewide election in 2006, when Gov. Pawlenty narrowly secured a second and final term. Republicans, however, have come very close to breaking their long losing streak several times since then, including in 2022, when Ellison won a tight race for reelection as attorney general, as did Auditor Julie Blaha.

Smith's departure will end a long career in Minnesota politics, with much of it taking place behind the scenes. Long before she became a senator, Smith worked on Democratic campaigns in the 1990s, including as campaign manager for former state Sen. Ted Mondale's unsuccessful primary campaign for governor.

She was advising state Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe’s gubernatorial campaign in October of 2002 when Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash just 11 days before Election Day. Former Vice President Walter Mondale—Ted Mondale's father—became the DFL's replacement nominee, and Smith was charged with jumpstarting his campaign.

While Mondale ultimately lost to Republican Norm Coleman by a 50-47 margin, Smith was credited with taking charge during a difficult situation. (Moe also lost to Pawlenty in what proved to be a tough year for Minnesota Democrats.)

Smith went on to serve as executive director of Planned Parenthood's regional affiliate before becoming chief of staff to Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak. It was in that capacity that she earned the nickname the "velvet hammer" for her ability to calmly but firmly resolve problems. Rybak was a fan of her approach and said that Smith "deserves a lot of credit for things that I’ve gotten credit for."

Smith took on the same role for Mark Dayton after his narrow victory in 2010 made him Minnesota's first Democratic governor in 20 years, and she was soon talked about as a candidate. While she turned down the chance to succeed Rybak when he retired in 2013, she signed on to become Dayton's running mate the next year after Lt. Gov. Yvonne Prettner Solon chose not to run again.

The ticket prevailed in 2014, and most insiders anticipated that Smith would be a contender to replace Dayton four years later. The lieutenant governor, however, surprised Minnesota politicos in early 2017 when she announced she'd stay out of the race, a decision that seemed to mark the end of her brief time in elected office.

Everything changed later that year, though, when Franken resigned after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. Dayton, who was charged with picking a new senator, wanted Smith, but she signaled that she preferred to be a caretaker and would not compete in the 2018 special election for the remaining two years of the term.

That was unwelcome news to Senate Democrats, who urged Dayton—himself a former senator—to pick someone who would run. Ultimately, though, Smith changed her mind and accepted the appointment and as well as the task of keeping Franken's seat in Democratic hands.

State and national Democrats quickly consolidated behind the new senator, and she had no trouble winning the primary. Republicans also failed to make a serious play for the seat at a time when Trump's unpopularity was dragging the party down nationwide, allowing Smith to easily beat state Sen. Karin Housley.

However, Smith's 2020 campaign for her first—and ultimately only—full term was more competitive. Republicans nominated former Rep. Jason Lewis, a longtime conservative radio shock-jock who'd spent his career firing off racist and misogynist tirades. The one-term congressman, who was coming off a tough loss to Angie Craig in 2018, was by no means a top-tier recruit, but he hoped that a strong performance by Trump would give him a lift.

It didn't pan out. Smith led in every single poll, though a few conducted late in the campaign showed her in danger. The senator, though, prevailed 49-43 as Joe Biden carried Minnesota 52-45.

Dave Weigel on surviving the news onslaught

Election Night

DE State Senate

Delaware will hold two special elections on Saturday—yes, Saturday—for a pair of vacant seats in the state Senate, offering election watchers another opportunity to compare the results to each district's typical lean.

The two seats up for grabs are based in adjacent districts in the Wilmington area, both of which are safely blue. They include the 1st District, which Democrat Sarah McBride previously represented before her election to the U.S. House last year, and the 5th District, which Democrat Kyle Evans Gay vacated last month to become the state's new lieutenant governor.

According to new calculations from The Downballot, the 1st voted for Kamala Harris by a 73-26 margin, little changed from Joe Biden's 74-25 edge four years earlier. The 5th, meanwhile, backed Harris 65-33, again very close to Biden's 67-32 win.

Democrats hold a wide 15-6 advantage in the Senate, and they're favored to keep both districts. In the five prior special elections other states have held this year, Democratic candidates have all outperformed the 2024 presidential results by anywhere from 2 to 25 points.

Governors

AK-Gov, AK-Sen, AK-AL

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is "likely" to run for governor of Alaska, the Cook Political Report says, following her unsuccessful campaign for reelection last year.

A Peltola bid would give Democrats a top-tier candidate for an office they last won in 1998, when Tony Knowles secured his second and final term.

But if Peltola runs to succeed Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who is termed out next year, she would, of course, be unavailable to compete for the Last Frontier's other two statewide offices that will also be on the ballot: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is up for reelection, while Republican Rep. Nick Begich is seeking to hold the House seat he narrowly wrested from Peltola last year.

Peltola herself has joked about how in-demand she is in a state where her party has a small bench.

"In 2026 I intend to run for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House," she said in December. "All at the same time."

NJ-Gov

Rep. Mikie Sherrill has picked up the support of former Gov. Jon Corzine ahead of the June Democratic primary for Corzine's old job. While Corzine hasn't been on the ballot since his 2009 loss to Republican Chris Christie, the former Goldman Sachs executive remains a well-connected Democratic fundraiser.

NM-Gov

Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland continues to consolidate support from fellow Democrats for her recently launched bid to serve as New Mexico's next governor, with four of the state's five members of Congress endorsing her campaign. The list includes Sen. Ben Ray Lujan as well as Reps. Melanie Stansbury, Gabe Vasquez, and Teresa Leger-Fernandez. Only Sen. Martin Heinrich, who had considered a gubernatorial campaign of his own, has yet to get behind Haaland.

House

NY-21

The Senate is delaying confirming Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations because of the party's tiny edge in the lower chamber, multiple media outlets report. The GOP currently sits on a narrow 218-215 majority, though it should add to its ranks after a pair of special elections in two deep-red vacant seats in Florida conclude on April 1.

"We’re kind of taking our direction from the White House in terms of who they want to move and when," Majority Leader John Thune tells NBC. "But my assumption is it probably has to do with the majority, the margin they have in the House right now."

Stefanik, though, isn't happy with the situation, the network says. When NBC asked her Thursday when she anticipates being confirmed she merely replied, "​​Soon."

Republican leaders in upstate New York's conservative 21st District have yet to pick a candidate for the special election that would be necessary to replace Stefanik if her nomination ever moves forward. Democrats, however, have rallied around dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who's been able to focus on fundraising while the GOP dithers.

OH-13

Republican state Sen. Kristina Roegner, who had been considering a bid against Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in Ohio's swingy 13th District, has instead announced she'll run for state treasurer, a post that will be open next year. So far, no Republicans have stepped up to challenge Sykes, though former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, who lost by a 51-49 margin last year, is reportedly likely to try again.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Interim U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon resigned her post on Thursday rather than acquiesce to a directive from the Department of Justice that she abandon her office's prosecution of New York City Mayor Eric Adams on corruption charges.

In a letter she sent to Attorney General Pam Bondi a day earlier, Sassoon, an appointee of Donald Trump and a member of the Federalist Society, sharply criticized the instructions to drop the case she received on Monday from acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove. Adams, a Democrat, was indicted last year for allegedly accepting bribes from the Turkish government in exchange for luxury travel and other benefits.

Sassoon also revealed that she was preparing to bring new charges against Adams alleging that he had destroyed evidence and told other individuals to lie to federal investigators.

"In the event you are unwilling to meet or to reconsider the directive in light of the problems raised by Mr. Bove's memo," Sassoon concluded in her missive to Bondi, "I am prepared to offer my resignation."

The fate of Adams' case is not immediately clear. The New York Times reported that after Sassoon quit, the Justice Department sought to transfer the matter from Manhattan prosecutors to its public integrity section in Washington, D.C. But two top attorneys in that department, John Keller and Kevin Driscoll, also tendered their resignations.

Trump previously nominated Jay Clayton, who chaired the Securities and Exchange Commission during his first term, to permanently run the office Sassoon had run on a temporary basis. Clayton's nomination has yet to receive a vote in the Senate.

Adams has insisted he'll continue to seek another term, though a new report in the Times says he's considered switching parties and spoken with local GOP leaders about the possibility. Adams responded to the report with a statement saying, "I am not running as a Republican."

Prince George’s County, MD Executive

Prince George's County Council Chair Jolene Ivey ended her campaign for county executive on Wednesday with less than three weeks to go before the March 4 special Democratic primary.

Ivey's departure leaves eight candidates in the race to succeed Angela Alsobrooks, who resigned after winning last year's Senate race, as leader of this reliably blue community. The main contenders appear to be Councilmember Calvin Hawkins, who has Alsobrooks' endorsement; former Executive Rushern Baker; State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy; and state Sen. Alonzo Washington.

This piece has been corrected to include Prince George's County State's Attorney Aisha Braveboy as one of the top contenders in the race to succeed Angela Alsobrooks.