Morning Digest: Senate Republican who voted to convict Trump faces major reelection test

Bill Cassidy thinks he can chart his own course, but a change in Louisiana law complicates his path

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is preparing for what could be a brutal Republican primary (credit: Bill Cassidy for Senate)

Leading Off

LA-Sen

While Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy is making it clear that he plans to seek reelection, his 2021 vote to convict Donald Trump―as well as a major change in how Louisiana conducts elections―could set him up for a tough primary in 2026.

Cassidy may also draw his first intraparty opponent in this dark-red state before long: Treasurer John Fleming tells the Shreveport Times that, in reporter Greg Hilburn's words, he "likely will run."

However, it's still possible that Fleming, a former congressman who unsuccessfully sought the state's other Senate seat in 2016, won't be breaking out his old campaign swag after all, since he says that Trump's transition team has reached out to him for a possible place in the new administration.

Another Republican politician, state Sen. Blake Miguez, also confirms to Hilburn that he's mulling a bid against Cassidy, though he declined to say more about his interest. Miguez has made a name for himself outside of politics as a competitive marksman, including a 2010 stint on the reality TV show "Top Shot."

Rep. Clay Higgins, meanwhile, did not respond to Hilburn's inquiries about his interest in taking on the incumbent. However, the far-right congressman was more voluble on social media, if not entirely clear.

"Media: 'Cassidy's campaign team notes that no incumbent U.S. senator has lost in a primary in the past 200 Senate elections across the country…,'" he tweeted. "Me: 'Well, you can go ahead and check that box.'"

State Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain, finally, says that he's not ruling anything out, though he adds that "at this point I'm committed to running for reelection" in 2027. 

In a major change, this will be the first election cycle in over a decade that will see Louisiana hold traditional primaries for Congress rather than requiring all candidates, regardless of party, to face off on one ballot in the general election.

Thanks to a bill approved early this year, the state is now set to hold separate primaries for Republicans and Democrats. A runoff would take place in contests where no one earns more than 50% of the vote, which raises the bar for Cassidy since he can't skate through with a plurality.

And he has good reason to worry. Cassidy easily won a second term in 2020 but shocked the political world in early 2021 when he voted to convict Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

"Our Constitution and our country is more important than any one person," he explained as he joined six other Republican senators in the verdict. "I voted to convict President Trump because he is guilty."

That vote immediately made the senator a pariah within his party. The state GOP censured him that very day, while then-Attorney General Jeff Landry tweeted that the senator "has fallen into the trap laid by Democrats to have Republicans attack Republicans."

Cassidy, though, has insisted that these angry critics speak for only "a small group of people" rather than the "broader Republican Party." He maintained that stance well into 2021 when he told Axios that he doubted Trump would be the party's 2024 nominee and said that he wouldn't vote for him. Trump characteristically responded by blasting "Wacky Bill Cassidy" as someone who "could not even be elected dog catcher today, the great people curse him."

As the next few years unequivocally demonstrated that Trump and Landry spoke for far more Louisiana Republicans than Cassidy, the senator began trying to cozy back up to them. While he considered running for governor in 2023, he ultimately backed Landry's successful bid. (Landry's old tweet excoriating his fellow Republican remains up more than a year after he accepted his endorsement.)

Cassidy took a bit longer to attempt to work his way back into Trump's good graces. In March, he told NBC that the contest between Trump and Joe Biden was "why people are considering third parties," dubbing the race "a sorry state of affairs."

And while Cassidy later said he would "commit to working with President Trump if he is the next president," he declined to tell Business Insider whether he'd vote for Trump, only saying that he wouldn't vote for Kamala Harris.

But after Trump won a second term, Cassidy responded by touting himself as a key ally for the incoming administration. The Louisianan is set to chair the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, and he's made it clear he'll use his powerful post to advocate for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

The senator, who finished September with almost $6 million in the bank, is also making sure his potential rivals know that he'll be able to bring in considerably more cash to defend himself.

"I've not announced yet, but I'm obviously working hard toward 2026," Cassidy told Hilburn after unveiling a campaign finance committee that includes many of Louisiana's most prominent GOP donors―plus New Orleans Saints legend Drew Brees.

Governors

VA-Gov

While both Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears appear set to easily capture their respective party's nomination for governor next year, they've each gotten a reminder in recent days that there's still time for someone else to run.

The Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis tweeted Friday that longtime Rep. Bobby Scott "isn't quieting" rumors he could take on Spanberger. However, Jarvis' sources still think it's unlikely the 77-year-old congressman will run.

The speculation comes at a time when, according to Jarvis, state Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas is telling other Democrats that she's unhappy with Spanberger's "outreach to the Black community." Both Lucas and Scott are two of the most prominent Black officeholders in the state.

On the GOP side, former state Sen. Amanda Chase tells WVTF's Brad Kutner she's not ruling out a bid against Earle-Sears if "shenanigans" cost her a chance to return to the legislature. Chase, the self-described "Trump in heels" who had a horrible relationship with her party's leaders, is seeking the GOP nod to replace Rep.-elect John McGuire.

Republicans will choose their nominee for the upcoming special election for McGuire's safely red 10th Senate District at a Dec. 12 mass meeting, a gathering where registered voters publicly declare who they're supporting.

Chase, who narrowly lost renomination last year in the primary for another Senate district, is one of six declared candidates, but she made it clear to the Richmond Times-Dispatch that she's not happy with the party's chosen method for selecting a nominee.

"We need to make this process easier for our constituents to cast a vote instead of more difficult so that only the party loyal can attend these mass meetings," she argued. "It's an outrage."

House

FL-01, FL-Gov

Gov. Ron DeSantis has scheduled a special election for Florida's vacant 1st Congressional District for April 1, with a primary to be held on Jan. 28. Candidates must file by Dec. 6, though current office-holders who want to run must submit an irrevocable letter of resignation no later than today under the state's "resign-to-run" law.

Notably, inhabitants of the conservative 1st District will be without representation in the House for just 139 days. By contrast, when the dark blue (and majority-Black) 20th District became vacant after Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in 2021, DeSantis made its residents wait twice as long until the seat was filled—280 days in total.

Not long before DeSantis' announcement about the special election, and just a day after withdrawing as Donald Trump's nominee for attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz told far-right podcaster Charlie Kirk that he's "still going to be in the fight, but it's going to be from a new perch." In previous comments, Gaetz has hinted that that new perch could be the governorship, which will be open in 2026 when DeSantis is termed out.

The ex-congressman also said that he does "not intend to join the 119th Congress," mirroring language he used in his letter of resignation. That could suggest Gaetz is open to changing his mind about reclaiming his seat, or he might just be trolling.

Mayors & County Leaders

Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors

Election officials in Arizona's largest county will conduct a recount in a race for one of five seats on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, an ultra-close contest where Republican Kate Brophy McGee leads Democrat Daniel Valenzuela 50.02-49.98―a margin of 164 votes. State law requires a mandatory recount in any election where the spread between the candidates is within 0.5%.

If Brophy McGee maintains her advantage, the GOP will keep the 4-1 majority that they went into Election Day with. All five seats will be on the ballot again in 2028.

Correction: The previous Morning Digest incorrectly identified the Georgia governor who first appointed Chris Carr as attorney general. Carr was chosen by then-Gov. Nathan Deal, not current Gov. Brian Kemp.