Morning Digest: The five races to watch tonight in Pennsylvania's primaries

A top question across the state: Can progressives hang on to their recent gains?

Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey faces a tough Democratic primary contest (credit: Ed Gainey campaign X page)

Leading Off

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is not only one of the nation's most closely divided swing states, it's also a non-stop battleground that hosts major elections nearly every year—and 2025 is no exception.

This fall, the battle for control of the state Supreme Court will take center stage, but first, voters will cast ballots on Tuesday in key primaries across the state. In some of these races, those primaries will prove decisive, while in others, they'll set the stage for critical showdowns in November.

Below, we take a look at five of Tuesday's top races.

Pittsburgh

Tuesday's marquee contest is the Democratic primary for mayor of Pittsburgh, where incumbent Ed Gainey is trying to fend off Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor. The winner should have little trouble in the general election in a dark blue city that last elected a Republican leader in 1929.

Gainey generated national attention four years ago following his victory in the 2021 primary over Mayor Bill Peduto, an accomplishment that set him up to become Steel City's first Black leader and marked the start of a strong streak for progressives in local elections. Most notably, Summer Lee won a seat in the U.S. House the following year with Gainey's endorsement, and the two backed Sara Innamorato's successful campaign for county executive in 2023.

O'Connor, who is closer to the local party establishment, has tried to downplay any ideological differences and has instead argued that Gainey has failed to effectively manage the city's finances and police force. Gainey has responded by highlighting financial support that O'Connor has received from major Republican donors, branding him as "someone that serves the power" instead of "the people."

O'Connor, whose father was elected mayor in 2005 but died the following year, spent most of the race looking like the favorite. The challenger has enjoyed a huge cash advantage throughout the race, and an internal poll conducted for him in late March gave him a daunting 18-point lead.

Gainey's side, however, publicized a survey late last month that showed the incumbent ahead by 7 points. O'Connor's team responded by acknowledging the race had gotten closer while still claiming their candidate was ahead. Notably, though, O'Connor did not share any of his own polling, nor has anyone else released any data since then.

Philadelphia

There's another nationally watched Democratic primary on the other side of the state as Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner defends himself against former Judge Patrick Dugan.

Krasner became one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the nation following his initial victory in 2017, and he's since positioned himself as an ardent opponent of the Trump administration's anti-immigration agenda. Dugan, though, has argued the incumbent's criminal justice reforms have undermined public safety.

The challenger, who has the backing of the influential Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council, enjoys a considerable fundraising advantage. The incumbent, however, released a survey last month showing him with a huge 37-point advantage, and neither Dugan nor anyone else has released contradictory data.

No Republicans filed to run in this heavily Democratic city, but earlier this month, the local GOP asked its supporters to write in Dugan's name, which would allow him to serve as the Republican nominee if he were to lose the Democratic primary.

Dugan initially wouldn't say whether he'd accept the GOP nomination, though his campaign later said he'd turn it down. He could, however, always change his mind after the results come in.

Erie, Northampton, and Lehigh

There are also primaries worth watching in a trio of closely divided mid-sized counties that have often served as bellwethers in the Keystone State.

In Erie County in the state's northwest corner, two Democrats are facing off for the right to take on County Executive Brenton Davis, a Republican who won a tight contest to flip the post he now holds in 2021.

Perry Wood, who runs the local Gaming Revenue Authority, has a sizable financial edge over businesswoman Christina Vogel. Erie voted for Donald Trump by a skinny 50-49 margin last year after supporting Joe Biden by that same spread in 2020.

The other two contests to watch are in a pair of counties in the Lehigh Valley region, just north of Philadelphia.

The executive's office in Northampton County is open because Democratic incumbent Lamont McClure decided to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie rather than seek reelection this year.

The Democratic primary pits County Controller Tara Zrinski, who has McClure's endorsement, against Amy Cozze, the former director of elections in Pennsylvania's Northampton County. Cozze, meanwhile, has the backing of former Rep. Bob Casey, whom she used to work for, as well as former Rep. Susan Wild, who lost to Mackenzie last year.

The winner will go up against County Council member Tom Giovanni, who has no opposition in the Republican primary. Like Erie, Northampton also switched sides in the most recent presidential election, backing Trump 50-48 four years after voting for Biden 50-49.

Right next door in Lehigh County, the race to succeed term-limited Executive Phil Armstrong features the lone GOP primary on our list. There, former Allentown City Council President Roger MacLean, who also once served as the city's police chief, faces former Allentown School Board member Mike Welsh.

State Rep. Josh Siegel, who has Armstrong's support, is the only Democratic candidate and has stockpiled $180,000 for the general election. MacLean and Welsh, meanwhile, have raised almost nothing and together have spent less than $8,000. Kamala Harris carried the county 51-48, a decline from Biden's 53-45 win.

Election Night

Special Elections

New York is holding a special election on Tuesday to fill a vacant seat last held by former state Sen. Simcha Felder, a conservative Democrat who resigned after winning a March special election to regain the job he once held on the New York City Council.

The 22nd Senate District, which includes Borough Park, Gravesend, and other nearby Brooklyn neighborhoods with large Orthodox Jewish populations, may be the most conservative legislative seat in America won by a candidate running on the Democratic line in 2024.

According to calculations by The Downballot, relying on data generously provided by data guru Ben Rosenblatt, Donald Trump carried this constituency in a 77-22 landslide last year. That represents a further shift to the right from Trump's already massive 70-29 victory in 2020, per VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App.

Local politics, though, is far more complicated than the presidential toplines suggest. Felder, who was first elected in 2012, spent more than six years caucusing with the GOP while still identifying as a Democrat, and he supplied an important vote that kept Republicans in power in years where Democrats nominally held a majority.

After Democrats finally flipped the chamber in 2018, Felder stopped caucusing with Republicans, but he was not readmitted to the Democratic caucus until the middle of the next year. What never changed, though, was how secure the incumbent was at home: Felder frequently took advantage of New York's fusion voting laws to claim both the Democratic and Republican nominations, and he won his final term last year without opposition.

Both parties, though, are now fielding separate candidates in Tuesday's special election. The Democratic nominee is Sam Sutton, a longtime nonprofit leader who is the co-leader of the Sephardic Community Federation. (Sephardic Jews trace their heritage to Spain and Portugal.) The GOP is fielding real estate attorney Nachman Caller, who has the support of one of Felder's former strategists. Felder himself has not taken sides.

Democrats hold a 40-22 majority in the Senate with only this seat vacant. A victory for Sutton would still leave his party one seat short of a two-thirds supermajority, though Caller's side has argued a GOP victory would still hinder Democrats, who also control the state Assembly and governorship.

Senate

FL-Sen

Alexander Vindman, the former National Security Council advisor whose testimony before Congress prompted Donald Trump's first impeachment, tells CBS News he's considering running against Republican Sen. Ashley Moody.

The Ukrainian-born Vindman, an Army veteran who has lived in South Florida since 2023, has not run for office before, but his twin brother, Eugene, successfully defended Virginia's swingy 7th Congressional District for the Democrats last year.

CBS also reports that public school math teacher Josh Weil, who ran in the special election for Florida's 6th District last month, is also considering. Weil lost that race 57-43 to Republican Randy Fine, but Donald Trump had carried the district by a much wider 65-30 margin. Weil did not confirm his interest to CBS but said he's "now considering how I can take the enthusiasm we generated and best serve Florida moving forward."

IL-Sen, IL-14

Rep. Lauren Underwood announced Monday that she'd seek reelection to the House rather than enter next year's primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, a fellow Illinois Democrat.

Underwood was the last prominent Democrat who appeared to be seriously considering a bid for what's already a busy nomination battle. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton launched her campaign the day after Durbin announced his retirement in April, while Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi joined her a short time later.

Morning Digest: Dick Durbin announces retirement after four decades in Congress

Underwood's plans have been the subject of much speculation over the last few weeks. The New York Times' Reid Epstein recently reported that Gov. JB Pritzker, who supports Stratton, was working hard to dissuade the congresswoman from running statewide.

Epstein said that Pritzker's camp feared that Underwood, who, like Stratton and Kelly, is Black, could harm the lieutenant governor's chances. Underwood, for her part, denied Monday that Pritzker had anything to do with her decision.

Krishnamoorthi, meanwhile, quickly tried to counter the idea that Underwood's choice spelled bad news for him. The congressman, who is Indian American, publicized a late April GBAO poll showing him defeating Stratton 27-18 in a three-way matchup, with Kelly taking 11%. With Underwood included, however, Krishnamoorthi had just a 21-20 edge.

Several Democrats in Chicago's western exurbs, meanwhile, were eager to see Underwood run for Senate so they could campaign to succeed her in the 14th Congressional District. The incumbent's decision to run for a fifth term, though, almost certainly ends any prospects for a crowded primary similar to those shaping up to replace Kelly and Krishnamoorthi.

There likely won't be much action in the general election, either. Calculations by The Downballot show that her constituency, which is based in Chicago's western exurbs, favored Kamala Harris 52-47, which makes it a tough target for Republicans in what's likely to be an unpleasant cycle for the GOP.

ME-Sen

Police arrested Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis last week for drunk driving after a breath test found him driving well above the legal limit. The Bangor Daily News reported last month that Francis was considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, though he has yet to publicly confirm his interest.

TX-Sen

Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson, the subject of years-long talk that he might run for the Senate, doesn't sound eager to join the already bloody primary battle unfolding between incumbent John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

"I'd prefer not to spend a ton of money on a primary, you know, in a race that's going to get really expensive in the general," Jackson told NOTUS. "So I hope the two of them can work it out and figure out what they're going to do."

Suffice it to say, Cornyn and Paxton are in no mood to work anything out—and the conflict might only get messier. Another Republican, Rep. Wesley Hunt, has been eyeing the race for a while, and he informed NOTUS that he's in no hurry to decide, saying there "plenty of time to sit back and see what happens."

Morning Digest: How Senate Republicans are trying to kneecap Ken Paxton

Governors

IA-Gov

Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird's team said Friday that it would be "sharing our plans soon for an exciting 2026," though Bird has already hinted that she's decided to seek higher office.

The attorney general posted a video on social media earlier that day featuring Donald Trump praising her to his supporters and declaring that "she's going to be your governor someday, I predict." Bird's caption merely consisted of the word "Someday…" followed by an "👀" emoji.

ME-Gov

Former state Senate President Troy Jackson announced Monday that he would join the busy Democratic primary for Maine's open governorship, a decision that came more than two months after he formed an exploratory committee.

Jackson kicked off his campaign with a launch video touting him as a "fifth-generation logger" and highlighting how, in the words of a newscaster, he "helped lead the blockade of the Canadian border in 1998 to protect Maine workers."

Jackson rose to prominence during that confrontation as he protested companies hiring Canadian loggers over Mainers, and he soon set his sights on running for office—but not as a Democrat.

In 2000, he narrowly lost an election for a seat in the state House as a Republican, but he decisively won it two years later as an independent. Jackson became a Democrat in 2004, and he stuck with the party for what would be a long career in both chambers.

Jackson was the Senate's majority leader in 2014 when he badly lost the primary for the open 2nd Congressional District, but he won back his old post in the legislature in 2016 even as Donald Trump was carrying his seat. Jackson became Senate president two years later after his party flipped the chamber and still held that title when term limits prevented him from running again last year.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King III were already running to succeed termed-out Gov. Janet Mills, a fellow Democrat, though the field is likely to grow further. Primaries in Maine are conducted using ranked-choice voting, though these rules don't apply to the general election for governor.

MI-Gov

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel's office released a letter on Monday concluding that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a fellow Democrat, had violated the state's campaign finance law in January when she held a press conference announcing her bid for governor at a state government building. Nessel, though, said that this same law doesn't give her any power to penalize Benson.

NJ-Gov

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka has launched the first negative ad of New Jersey's Democratic primary for governor that targets a rival, reports the New Jersey Globe's Joey Fox.

Baraka's spot slams Rep. Mikie Sherrill for previously accepting contributions from the corporate PAC of Elon Musk's SpaceX, as well as for trading stocks while in office.

A spokesperson for Sherrill, who has led in every poll that's been released, pushed back by saying she "divested of all individual stocks in 2020 to avoid even the appearance of impropriety." Her team also criticized Baraka for citing the far-right media outlet Newsmax in its ad.

House

CO-08

State Rep. Shannon Bird announced Tuesday morning that she would seek the Democratic nomination to face GOP Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado's swingy 8th District.

Bird, who was first elected to the legislature in 2018, was characterized as "a moderate voice in the House Democratic caucus, with a focus on business legislation" by Colorado Politics earlier this year. Bird had launched a bid for the state Senate over the winter, but she switched races Tuesday and excoriated Evans and Donald Trump for promoting "an agenda that's making lives harder."

Bird joins a primary that already includes fellow state Rep. Manny Rutinel and former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who narrowly lost to Evans last year.

Morning Digest: Former Democratic congresswoman launches comeback bid after narrow loss

Several other Democrats could also run, but two notable local pols who'd been mentioned as possible candidates, Adams County Commissioner Julie Duran Mullica and her husband, state Sen. ​​Kyle Mullica, both endorsed Bird on Tuesday.

IA-04

State Sen. Lynn Evans said Saturday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential campaign to replace Rep. Randy Feenstra, a fellow Republican who announced days earlier that he was exploring his own run for governor. But while Feenstra has signaled that he's already decided to seek higher office, Evans said he'd take 30 days to make up his mind.

Evans is the first prominent Republican to publicly express interest in campaigning for Iowa's 4th District, which is located in the northwestern part of the state. Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, prevailed 65-34 in this longtime conservative stronghold.

NH-01

Attorney General John Formella is the subject of "rumors" that he could seek the Republican nomination to flip the open 1st District, Michael Graham writes in the conservative New Hampshire Journal. This seat is held by Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for the Senate.

The chatter picked up after an unknown person purchased domain names like "FormellaforCongress.com." A spokesperson for Formella denied that his team had anything to do with securing the domains, though they didn't address whether he was interested in running. Formella has served as the state's top lawyer, which is an appointed job in New Hampshire, since 2021.

Graham also says that state Rep. Brian Cole is "believed to be seriously considering" running for the Republicans, though Cole doesn't appear to have addressed this publicly. Several Republicans who unsuccessfully ran here in 2024 have talked about running, though no one has announced they're in yet.

Marine veteran Maura Sullivan is the only prominent Democrat to enter the race so far, though other prospective candidates have expressed interest. Kamala Harris carried the 1st District by a 51-49 margin last year.

Secretaries of State

IA-SoS

Iowa Democrat Ryan Peterman, a retired Navy pilot, has filed paperwork to run for secretary of state and indicated in a statement that he'd make an announcement about his plans soon. Republican incumbent Paul Pate, who's in his fourth term, has yet to say whether he'll run again. (Pate first won the office in 1994 but left after one term for an unsuccessful bid for governor. He returned as secretary of state 20 years later and has since won three times.)

MI-SoS

Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum has filed paperwork ahead of a possible bid for secretary of state, the Detroit News' Craig Mauger flags. One other Democrat, deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie, is already in the race to succeed incumbent Jocelyn Benson, who is running for governor.

Correction: Our item on the special election for the New York state Senate incorrectly stated that former Sen. Simcha Felder remained a member of the Republican caucus after the 2018 election. Felder did not caucus with either party following the election but was later readmitted to the Democratic caucus.