Meanwhile, former mayor Cory Booker is the only Democrat to vote to confirm felon Charles Kushner as ambassador to France. Kushner donated to Booker's campaigns.
Charles Kushner has always been close with Cory and funded his early campaigns. Cory praised Kushner in a letter to the judge in his trial as a selfless man. It's a very personal relationship.
Sure. But shutting the fuck up would be better for him. I’ve already seen some social media posts about this from the same progressives who didn’t like Biden but praised Booker’s filibuster. Just reinforces their beliefs that Democrats aren’t good enough.
On Bluesky there's resentment against him too for what he did to Newark's schools as mayor -- some kind of attempted privatization if what I hear is accurate.
Honestly, I can think of far worse people Trump could have appointed for an ambassadorship to a key ally (for example-He could have appointed Musk after forcing him out of DOGE).
Troy Jackson would have been the best candidate to take on Collins. As was discussed yesterday, it's ridiculous that none of the announced candidates for governor didn't choose to take on Collins instead.
Of all the candidates currently running for Gov, I think I'd like to see Bellows jump over to the Senate race. She lost to Collins (badly) before, but that was during the 2014 red wave, when Collins was more popular and the country was less polarized (more ticket-splitting everywhere, especially in places like Maine). I don't think a race from 12 years prior and (a different era politically) helps us predict all that much.
Bellows worked for the ACLU and fought to keep Trump off the ballot in Maine for his insurrection. That profile seems ideal for a race that (I think) really needs to be nationalized. I don't think we are going to beat Collins by being as "Maine" as possible. Collins has her brand well established, and Mainers have bought what she's selling repeatedly. We defeat Collins by tying her directly to Trump, Musk, RKF Jr., habeas corpus, due process, cancer research, El Salvador, etc. Similar to how Lincoln Chaffee was defeated in Rhode Island during the backlash to Bush's extremism--nice guy, people liked him, but not his party. Maybe I'm wrong and only a locally focused election will work in Maine.
I'd prefer Jackson and maybe one of these candidates will realize they don't have a path to the nomination in this clown car but do have a path against Collins. As long as we get a candidate that is viable and in good physical/mental health to run a statewide campaign i'm happy.
I'd rather anyone who already lost to her in the past stay in the gov primary, if there's any alternatives. Voters apply a "loser" penalty if its something they're made to think about.
Pingree the younger and Jackson haven't faced Collins before and either would make a strong candidate.
Bellows should consider whether it's possible to just throw Collins off the ballot (and obviously she needs to ignore any court orders to put her back on the ballot).
Kirk Francis, the Penobscot Nation Chief, is lucky that he was not caught drunk driving in Norway. Any Norwegian convicted of a DUI (having a blood alcohol level exceeding 0.02%) receives a double punishment:
– 30 days in jail, minimum
– A fine equal to 10% of your gross annual income
– In addition, you risk losing your license for one year
No exceptions! (Or virtually none. Right now the Norwegian Supreme Court is considering the case of a woman in northern Norway, who fled by car from her violent boyfriend. Here’s an article about that, albeit with an incorrect translation of the heading. Also, her blood-alcohol level was 0.136 – almost seven times Norway’s legal max.)
I don’t think Norwegians drink less than Americans. But there will almost always be a designated driver, or people take a cab or bus home. If it’s clear a person who is drunk intends to drive home, someone will almost always step in and try to stop them, whether to call a cab or offer them a couch.
I know people who have spent a month in jail and paid the steep fine, but I don’t know any repeat offenders. Believe me, the threat of those punishments, and the knowledge that there are no exceptions, really does have a preventive effect!
Look, I'm all for Mills getting in but I'd like to see how Jordan Wood can run his campaign. He may be unknown but has connections to the national party. Might work in his favor to be unknown and undefined while Collins is well known and defined. Stay tuned.
Good! As many here have repeatedly pointed out, Jared Golden is probably the best we can do in his Congressional seat, ME-02. But I don’t want to see him in the Senate or as Governor of Maine.
Worth noting: Jared Golden almost lost his last election. Why? Partly because Golden pushed for sensible gun control after the 2023 massacre in Lewiston, Maine, the town where he was born. 18 people lost their lives in that mass shooting!
I really hope we get some candidate who has the guts to gut the great tool of segregation, the filibuster after 2025 elections. A Mark Kelly or Slotkin type moderate loyal to the party would be good enough just not a Sinema.
ME-02 is probably gone in anything that isn't a D wave-even with Golden running (arguably, despite Trump's win, 2024 was basically a D ripple-we actually gained seats in the House and lost the minimum in the Senate-a neutral year or R Wave would have seen Tammy Baldwin, Elissa Slotkin and Jacky Rosen all lose).
Their mission: "This project is committed to providing simplified coverage for the down-ballot races that will take place in the next four years leading up to the next presidential race in 2024. Our goal is to be a one-stop-shop that provides progressive constituents with the resources to make informed decisions on who best represents their core values."
If you want to be taken seriously, then maybe you need to update your mission to 2028? Also referring to "Democrat candidates" doesn't help.
Looking at their "library" it includes videos grouped under headings like 'Conspiracy and Capitalism", "The Fetishization of Nonviolence", and "Dictatorship of the Proletariat". Not exactly stuff aimed at a particularly broad audience even in blue areas like NYC.
There's still a "2022 Midterms" section there, but not one for 2026 (yet). Someone's not minding the store there, but I don't think that hurts the Democratic party much.
Oh my god, this is the kind of batshit crazy agenda crap I am used to seeing being splattered around Berkeley (where I live) on bulletin boards, sidewalks and telephone posts with fliers!
Only a few months into Mayor Adena Ishii’s four year term in leading Berkeley and somehow a flier was thrown out calling for her to be impeached. No evidence whatsoever. Sounds like the crap that the would-be “Downballot” would be in favor of.
I bet you anything David DePape (Paul Pelosi’s attacker) is listed as one of the subscribers. He at one point lived in Berkeley (which I am still rolling my eyes at) and was a pretty weird dude back then from what has been covered about him.
I hope that something changes and either of Jason Carter and Lucy McBath enter the field. They privately launched their campaigns, website and everything but backed out due to personal tragedies.
Has she ever explained why she didn't run for re-election as Atlanta mayor? I recall at the time she seemed overwhelmed by it. There was definitely a lot to deal with--Trump, the pandemic, protests, etc., but welcome to America in 2025.
I haven't seen that bad a map for Trump in a long, long time. Though, I wonder why Ohio has become a more strongly Republican state in contrast to Iowa and Texas? even in this real time poll as well as recent 2026 governor/senate polls. I know polls are just a snapshot in time and an indicator but Ohio's divergence seems interesting.
I think the tariffs and mass deportations are hurting Texas and Iowa pretty hard in their farming and construction areas hence why Trump's down there. In Ohio, he's at 49-47 approval which isn't impressive but still slightly in his favor. My guess is that Ohio, being a manufacturing state that's been hit hard, is still holding up hope that Trump will end up the victor in his stupid trade war against China. Yes, he's given exemptions and he's kicked the can down the road again but it's clear Ohio might still be hoping that Trump delivers for them. If he keeps kicking the can or gets owned by China, which is very likely, we could see his approval dip there. Also, I'm curious to see if he can actually help Ramaswamey's bid for governor. It's clear to me that Mike DeWine knows Ramaswamey is a loser and has been pushing his Lt. Governor.
Ohio has long been one of the most protectionist-friendly states, with even most leading Dems supporting more restrictive trade policies (at least until now.) But even they probably won't be happy with tariffs raising prices without bringing new factories or jobs.
1) Ohio has gone way, way off the deep end. Unless the "mainstream establishment" types (like DeWine) switch sides completely - SPOILER, they won't - the Vance/Ramaswamey lunatic wing is going to run everything there.
2) Iowa and Texas will likely forget their "mile wide, inch deep" anger about the tariffs by voting time.
Like some other commentator also said here, I'd also watch Texas very keenly since 2024 may have been an anomaly or a temporary blip in its long march towards Blexas since 2000.
I’m not convinced 2024 is indicative of very much when it comes to political trends. Hell, I’m not convinced the GOP gains with some voters from 2016-2024 will all hold once Trump is no longer on the ballot.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to be angriest out of the swing states and the Rust belt in this poll with manufacturing heavy South Carolina also disapproving. States except Texas, Florida, SC, Iowa and Alaska seem to be following convention. Texas, Arizona and Florida Latinos have seen a huge swing if you'd filter that option mirroring the nationwide trend of his new coalition breaking.
Alaska has always had a less polarized libertarian culture and recently had a pro-gun elected centrist Democrat and has a liberal Republican Senator. I think Trump's ceasing of IRA grants has had an effect in Iowa's big renewable sector along with its low approval of the current Governor amid the legislature trying another Kansas experiment.
I don't know if he was one of the very worst, but "Iron Stache" probably ranks as Exhibit A in how social media memes do not translate into general election votes.
He was briefly the congressman from WI-1! (Won a special election in 1993, but lost his seat when the Gingrich stole Christmas in 1994.)
But he's better-known for his two long stints in the State Assembly (serving as minority leader during the second), and also served in the Evers Administration.
It seems to me that the Republican Party may as well replace its representatives in the House with bots. After all, Trump wants to dictate who should serve in Congress as well as their every vote.
On Tuesday, Trump said that House Republicans who vote against his "big, beautiful bill" could face primary challenges, and that they would be "knocked out so fast."
The National Republican Congressional Committee has underscored that it will not be intervening in Republican primaries if President Trump tries to knock off incumbents.
If this was the case, Trump would have likely approached the meeting with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas:
“I am going to make you guys an offer you can’t refuse. It’s like butter!”
C'mon now, when he says "wrap it up" (if he did say it), he means it as a mobster would when they say "take care of our little problem" or "finish the job." It is never benevolent.
At least this time Politico isn't puffing up the GOP's prospects, opening the piece with "Virginia Republicans are bracing for November with a growing sense of doom."
Here in Virginia there are three statewide positions: Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. Because Governors are not permitted to serve consecutive terms (unlike LGs and AGs), the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are considered THE top candidates for Governor after four years. Whenever the LG and AG are of separate parties, expect them to face off against one another in the next election for Governor.
Miyares arguably would have been the stronger Virginia Republican (and I honestly think he would have beaten Earle-Sears in the primary if he chose to run).
Based on what you’ve said in your first paragraph, the company opposite effect has happened with Abigail Spanberger as the Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee.
Something that we weren’t used to during Obama’s presidency, which definitely did happen during Biden: The media punditry is adversarial to whoever and whichever party is in office. Now that Trump’s back (which they wanted and helped to make happen), they’ve gone back to reporting on Trump and the GOP exactly as it is instead of Trumpwashing everything and blaming Democrats for everything.
Which in turn will make them more money from liberal clicks looking for every sign of a pending GOP wipeout after they did the same to get the GOP clicks with Biden in office. The media is all about making money and will do whatever that means to ensure the biggest return. Disgusting pervading of so-called “journalism” to not just report the truth at all times, but it’s the world we live in now, sadly.
Less off topic note: If November 2025 elections in NJ/VA are a blue tsunami, I’d expect this to catalyze a stampede of suburban or Biden district Republicans to retire after of course they party line support Trump’s giveaway to the rich again that is rather than running again knowing they’d lose. Similar to what happened in 2017 elections there for those incumbents running in the 2018 midterms.
I don't know lots of coverage about Biden's health this week related to his diagnosis and CNN pushing a book on the subject. I agree on the second point though a big rout in NJ/VA could help push some members to retire.
Hochul almost certainly will lose the general election if she's the nominee-the question is more "has the race swung to such an extent that Hochul retiring or being primaried is completely meaningless?"-which very well could be the case if Lawler or Stefanik is the Republican nominee.
Yeah, I'll believe Hochul losing re-election in a 2026 midterm with Trump in the White House as much as I believe Emerson's garbage poll about Trump having evenly split approval in New Jersey.
Am I missing something? It just says she has a -2 favor ability rating. I that's not that bad. You want to know who would lose a general election campaign? Richie Torres.
I wouldn't say I'm sure, but it is much more likely. From NYC, black, gay, viewed as liberal but many liberals wouldn't like him based on a bunch of his positions. It would be very tough for him to win, unless Trump cratered the general opinion on Republicans.
Again with this nonsense. I will literally bet you any amount of money that Hochul wins the general, unless the national mood somehow turns extremely anti-Dem between now and then.
I didn't know Selzer had ever announced her retirement. And if the Democrats lose the governor's race because of Hochul, that would just be an immense and infuriating own goal!
I see that Lawler would have appeal because of his moderate image but what is so special about Stefanik? I guess she would win the Charedim vote and....? She's fully MAGA.
2002, but Cuomo and Hochul mask the fact that New York is more than willing to elect a Republican Governor if they are socially moderate enough as Pataki was.
Not only that, he was environmentalist and for gay rights by those days' standards, from what I recall. He screwed the cities big-time in funding, but we knew he would do that.
Eh, New York is still *at least* blue-leaning, and this will be a Trump midterm. The GOP nominee will probably be a MAGA freak. We can certainly do better than Hochul, but I don't think she'll be facing an environment as bad as 2022 (and she won then).
With Harris as president? Yes, it could easily turn red. With Trump as president? Not. A. Chance. Regardless of who they nominate. Partisanship is too strong today.
Enough Harris voters would hold their nose for Hochul rather than giving Trump’s GOP a win in a blue state. Harris won New York by 13 points. Even as an underperformance, that’s still a lot of wiggle room for an unpopular Governor of the same party to win again.
MA then (and today) is a decent bit more blue than NY is today.
I think the cycle itself will likely be enough to save Hochul but I'd agree with Michael too. There's enough uncertainty here that she isn't 100% safe.
Yes, sadly so. The divergence between genders is dramatic and, imho, damning. As others have pointed out, if women did not have the right to vote, Trump would have won in a landslide in 2020.
Full disclosure, for those of you who don't know who Tim Dillon is, he is a loud, gay MAGA friendly comic who's podcast I unfortunately had to work on when I was at a terrible management company in early 2024 before I went on to work on the Harris-Walz campaign on the YouTube side towards the end of the campaign. Tim Dillon has Netflix specials, makes the rounds at the comedy clubs and desperately wants to be Joe Rogan. Comedian Anthony Jeselnik has called out clowns like Dillon and Tony Hinchcliffe quite a bit. When I was working on Dillon's podcast, his producer was trying to be the first Podcast to get Trump on as a guest. In the end, Rogan and Schulz and Von got Trump while he had to settle for J.D. Vance.
I think Dillon is bull shitting here because of how well Pete Buttigieg's interview was received on Andrew Schulz's Podcast, who also had Trump on. The most viral clips were Buttigieg perfectly explaining what Democrats stand for and even Schulz was impressed. The comments on YouTube were predominantly well received. But then Schulz brought on Bernie Sanders and he starts off with cheering Sanders for being trashed by Democrats and of course the clips are the parts of the interview that go the most viral are Sanders repeated critiques of the party. Now, whether or not you agree with Sanders' critiques of the Democratic Party, guys like Schulz, Von and Rogan will get Sanders to go off on the party and highlight those parts while underplaying any criticism of Trump and the GOP. Whereas if Sanders were to go on Colbert, they share and emphasize more of his critiques on Trump and the GOP. It's clear Schulz took a chance with Buttigieg and what he proved is these clown comics act all tough but won't bash someone like Buttigieg to his face. They'll just sit there and listen because they aren't smart enough to actually challenge Democrats. I think that Schulz felt he needed to get Sanders on his Podcast because the Buttigieg clips were getting praised by folks who would not listen to Schulz whereas Schulz's more dedicated audience are right leaning males. Guys like Schulz don't want a Democratic or liberal audience because they are lazy shock comics. At this point, Sanders shouldn't be on these podcasts anymore. They don't really care or agree with him, they just want to see him bash the Democrats.
Tim Dillon has a cult following but doesn't have the same reach as Rogan, Von or even Schulz. So to me, it's even more funny to see him try to convince CNN that MAGA friendly comedic Podcasters had no influence in last year's election. I think the extend of the influence can be overblown but it did have an influence. Barron Trump was the one who told his fuck face father to go on Rogan and Von and Schulz. Harris choosing to go on podcasts like Call Her Daddy and not his is not a reflection on the Democratic Party as Dillon likes to claim. The truth is that Democrats didn't go on his Podcast because he's crass, rude, stupid, loud an asshole and loves picking on immigrants. He's the ultimate punching down comic. If anything, Dillon only managing to get Vance and failing to get Trump on his show is a reflection on how limited his reach is in that comedy circle and it's also more of a reflection of how far CNN has fallen that the only one of these Podcasters they could get was Tim Dillon.
I do wish Pete Buttigieg would go on Joe Rogan! That would tempt me to listen to Rogan for the second time. (The first time was Rogan’s interview with Magnus Carlsen, the strongest chess player in the world.)
Supreme Court rules 7-2 that Laurel Libby (R) should have her voting powers restored in the Maine Legislature next session after being stripped of them for anti-trans remarks.
Elena Kagan (the only member of the liberal wing to not dissent) should be ashamed of herself here-ruling in favor of Libby is like ruling in favor of the eugenicists in Buck v Bell in my opinion.
This was injunctive relief, not on the merits. The case raises free speech and separation of powers issues. There may have been some inconsistency in granting the injunction on this one, as Jackson states, but the case is not cut and dry as you appear to imply.
Newark in the news.
Representative McIver charged with assault while trespass charges against Mayor Baraka are dropped.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/nyregion/new-jersey-congress-ice-charges.html
Meanwhile, former mayor Cory Booker is the only Democrat to vote to confirm felon Charles Kushner as ambassador to France. Kushner donated to Booker's campaigns.
https://bsky.app/profile/pasqualena.bsky.social/post/3lplpzj2qtk2v
Cory, you fucking suck man. I'm sorry, Charles Kushner?
Charles Kushner has always been close with Cory and funded his early campaigns. Cory praised Kushner in a letter to the judge in his trial as a selfless man. It's a very personal relationship.
Sure. But shutting the fuck up would be better for him. I’ve already seen some social media posts about this from the same progressives who didn’t like Biden but praised Booker’s filibuster. Just reinforces their beliefs that Democrats aren’t good enough.
The progressives I’ve seen on Bluesky were not fans of Booker even when he did the speech. I don’t know what you’re seeing.
I don't know what Progressives you saw, they hate him because he is very pro Israel.
On Bluesky there's resentment against him too for what he did to Newark's schools as mayor -- some kind of attempted privatization if what I hear is accurate.
Honestly, I can think of far worse people Trump could have appointed for an ambassadorship to a key ally (for example-He could have appointed Musk after forcing him out of DOGE).
"He could appoint far worse people than Kushner" may be accurate, but it's no reason to vote to confirm a crook.
Look on the bright side: This is a deportation of sorts.
/s
Troy Jackson would have been the best candidate to take on Collins. As was discussed yesterday, it's ridiculous that none of the announced candidates for governor didn't choose to take on Collins instead.
Maybe that will change after Nov. 2025.
Of all the candidates currently running for Gov, I think I'd like to see Bellows jump over to the Senate race. She lost to Collins (badly) before, but that was during the 2014 red wave, when Collins was more popular and the country was less polarized (more ticket-splitting everywhere, especially in places like Maine). I don't think a race from 12 years prior and (a different era politically) helps us predict all that much.
Bellows worked for the ACLU and fought to keep Trump off the ballot in Maine for his insurrection. That profile seems ideal for a race that (I think) really needs to be nationalized. I don't think we are going to beat Collins by being as "Maine" as possible. Collins has her brand well established, and Mainers have bought what she's selling repeatedly. We defeat Collins by tying her directly to Trump, Musk, RKF Jr., habeas corpus, due process, cancer research, El Salvador, etc. Similar to how Lincoln Chaffee was defeated in Rhode Island during the backlash to Bush's extremism--nice guy, people liked him, but not his party. Maybe I'm wrong and only a locally focused election will work in Maine.
I'd prefer Jackson and maybe one of these candidates will realize they don't have a path to the nomination in this clown car but do have a path against Collins. As long as we get a candidate that is viable and in good physical/mental health to run a statewide campaign i'm happy.
I'd rather anyone who already lost to her in the past stay in the gov primary, if there's any alternatives. Voters apply a "loser" penalty if its something they're made to think about.
Pingree the younger and Jackson haven't faced Collins before and either would make a strong candidate.
Bellows should consider whether it's possible to just throw Collins off the ballot (and obviously she needs to ignore any court orders to put her back on the ballot).
Kirk Francis, the Penobscot Nation Chief, is lucky that he was not caught drunk driving in Norway. Any Norwegian convicted of a DUI (having a blood alcohol level exceeding 0.02%) receives a double punishment:
– 30 days in jail, minimum
– A fine equal to 10% of your gross annual income
– In addition, you risk losing your license for one year
No exceptions! (Or virtually none. Right now the Norwegian Supreme Court is considering the case of a woman in northern Norway, who fled by car from her violent boyfriend. Here’s an article about that, albeit with an incorrect translation of the heading. Also, her blood-alcohol level was 0.136 – almost seven times Norway’s legal max.)
https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/tromsogfinnmark/promillekjorte-for-a-unnslippe-ekskjaeresten-_-na-tar-hoyesterett-saken-1.17418025?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Makes total sense, Norwegians do seem do know what kind of crimes need tough punishment and what do not. Not to say that I think it will work here.
I don’t think Norwegians drink less than Americans. But there will almost always be a designated driver, or people take a cab or bus home. If it’s clear a person who is drunk intends to drive home, someone will almost always step in and try to stop them, whether to call a cab or offer them a couch.
I know people who have spent a month in jail and paid the steep fine, but I don’t know any repeat offenders. Believe me, the threat of those punishments, and the knowledge that there are no exceptions, really does have a preventive effect!
Jared Golden out for ME Sen, https://x.com/reesejgorman/status/1924775559147528408,
I guess it's Mills or no one of any weight. Maybe they'll let Collins run unopposed.
Look, I'm all for Mills getting in but I'd like to see how Jordan Wood can run his campaign. He may be unknown but has connections to the national party. Might work in his favor to be unknown and undefined while Collins is well known and defined. Stay tuned.
Good! As many here have repeatedly pointed out, Jared Golden is probably the best we can do in his Congressional seat, ME-02. But I don’t want to see him in the Senate or as Governor of Maine.
Worth noting: Jared Golden almost lost his last election. Why? Partly because Golden pushed for sensible gun control after the 2023 massacre in Lewiston, Maine, the town where he was born. 18 people lost their lives in that mass shooting!
He was never running against Collins, who he used to work for.
Another reason is that they have a lot in common ideologically.
I really hope we get some candidate who has the guts to gut the great tool of segregation, the filibuster after 2025 elections. A Mark Kelly or Slotkin type moderate loyal to the party would be good enough just not a Sinema.
I guess the upside is much better chance of holding ME-02.
ME-02 is probably gone in anything that isn't a D wave-even with Golden running (arguably, despite Trump's win, 2024 was basically a D ripple-we actually gained seats in the House and lost the minimum in the Senate-a neutral year or R Wave would have seen Tammy Baldwin, Elissa Slotkin and Jacky Rosen all lose).
David & Jeff: Is someone poaching The DownBallot’s good name?
https://www.thedownballot.org/
https://www.thedownballot.org/about
Their mission: "This project is committed to providing simplified coverage for the down-ballot races that will take place in the next four years leading up to the next presidential race in 2024. Our goal is to be a one-stop-shop that provides progressive constituents with the resources to make informed decisions on who best represents their core values."
If you want to be taken seriously, then maybe you need to update your mission to 2028? Also referring to "Democrat candidates" doesn't help.
Progressive constituents? Sounds to me to be something straight out of what the Green Party would say.
Already, this is asserting that the focus is to appease specific voters instead of trying to really win races with different kinds of voters.
Fail.
Looking at their "library" it includes videos grouped under headings like 'Conspiracy and Capitalism", "The Fetishization of Nonviolence", and "Dictatorship of the Proletariat". Not exactly stuff aimed at a particularly broad audience even in blue areas like NYC.
There's still a "2022 Midterms" section there, but not one for 2026 (yet). Someone's not minding the store there, but I don't think that hurts the Democratic party much.
Oh my god, this is the kind of batshit crazy agenda crap I am used to seeing being splattered around Berkeley (where I live) on bulletin boards, sidewalks and telephone posts with fliers!
Only a few months into Mayor Adena Ishii’s four year term in leading Berkeley and somehow a flier was thrown out calling for her to be impeached. No evidence whatsoever. Sounds like the crap that the would-be “Downballot” would be in favor of.
Hmmm. They have a YouTube channel of 7 subscribers, and some very stale videos.
Their YouTube channel (five videos all from 2020-21) is "thedownballot5350". Not to be confused with "The Downballot".
So they don’t really have ownership ship to a YouTube handle titled “thedownballot.”
Fail once again.
Who are these subscribers?
I bet you anything David DePape (Paul Pelosi’s attacker) is listed as one of the subscribers. He at one point lived in Berkeley (which I am still rolling my eyes at) and was a pretty weird dude back then from what has been covered about him.
WI-SC - Judge Chris Taylor announces for next year's court race - https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/05/20/chris-taylor-to-challenge-rebecca-bradley-for-wisconsin-supreme-court/83728437007/
GA Gov: Lance-Bottoms is in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/us/keisha-lance-bottoms-former-atlanta-mayor-enters-georgia-governors-race.html
I hope that something changes and either of Jason Carter and Lucy McBath enter the field. They privately launched their campaigns, website and everything but backed out due to personal tragedies.
I really want(ed) Jason Carter to run.
Has she ever explained why she didn't run for re-election as Atlanta mayor? I recall at the time she seemed overwhelmed by it. There was definitely a lot to deal with--Trump, the pandemic, protests, etc., but welcome to America in 2025.
No thanks.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
I haven't seen that bad a map for Trump in a long, long time. Though, I wonder why Ohio has become a more strongly Republican state in contrast to Iowa and Texas? even in this real time poll as well as recent 2026 governor/senate polls. I know polls are just a snapshot in time and an indicator but Ohio's divergence seems interesting.
I think the tariffs and mass deportations are hurting Texas and Iowa pretty hard in their farming and construction areas hence why Trump's down there. In Ohio, he's at 49-47 approval which isn't impressive but still slightly in his favor. My guess is that Ohio, being a manufacturing state that's been hit hard, is still holding up hope that Trump will end up the victor in his stupid trade war against China. Yes, he's given exemptions and he's kicked the can down the road again but it's clear Ohio might still be hoping that Trump delivers for them. If he keeps kicking the can or gets owned by China, which is very likely, we could see his approval dip there. Also, I'm curious to see if he can actually help Ramaswamey's bid for governor. It's clear to me that Mike DeWine knows Ramaswamey is a loser and has been pushing his Lt. Governor.
Ohio has long been one of the most protectionist-friendly states, with even most leading Dems supporting more restrictive trade policies (at least until now.) But even they probably won't be happy with tariffs raising prices without bringing new factories or jobs.
1) Ohio has gone way, way off the deep end. Unless the "mainstream establishment" types (like DeWine) switch sides completely - SPOILER, they won't - the Vance/Ramaswamey lunatic wing is going to run everything there.
2) Iowa and Texas will likely forget their "mile wide, inch deep" anger about the tariffs by voting time.
Like some other commentator also said here, I'd also watch Texas very keenly since 2024 may have been an anomaly or a temporary blip in its long march towards Blexas since 2000.
I’m not convinced 2024 is indicative of very much when it comes to political trends. Hell, I’m not convinced the GOP gains with some voters from 2016-2024 will all hold once Trump is no longer on the ballot.
^This. We really don't know how much of the surge in GOP support is durable, and how much of it is tied solely to (highly-personalistic) Trump.
I suspect the gains with rural white voters will have more staying power, since that's a trend that pre-dated Trump's entry into politics.
Rural white voters and WCWs since that's pretty much the standard in every first world country.
I mean, we already have some evidence that it won't in the form of Dems winning senate races in NV, AZ, MI & WI while Trump won those states...
But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to be angriest out of the swing states and the Rust belt in this poll with manufacturing heavy South Carolina also disapproving. States except Texas, Florida, SC, Iowa and Alaska seem to be following convention. Texas, Arizona and Florida Latinos have seen a huge swing if you'd filter that option mirroring the nationwide trend of his new coalition breaking.
Alaska has always had a less polarized libertarian culture and recently had a pro-gun elected centrist Democrat and has a liberal Republican Senator. I think Trump's ceasing of IRA grants has had an effect in Iowa's big renewable sector along with its low approval of the current Governor amid the legislature trying another Kansas experiment.
Very good post, but I quibble with "liberal Republican." We used to have those. Jacob Javits, Murkowski is not!
SC mayors have not been bashful about how the tariffs are/will hurt the state. The mayors are Republicans.
Randy Bryce declares in WI-1
https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2025/05/20/in-wisconsins-1st-cd-ironstache-bryce-decides-to-seek-a-rematch-in-2026/
Bryce was one of the worst candidates dems ran in a swing district in 2018. He should be kept away from any even remotely competitive race.
I don't know if he was one of the very worst, but "Iron Stache" probably ranks as Exhibit A in how social media memes do not translate into general election votes.
I think the union worker history Randy Bryce has is appealing.
But I also think that by default shouldn’t be the only reason to support a candidate.
To be fair the 2018 incarnation of the district was way redder than the current one is.
And it may be even bluer if redistricting happens.
2018 - Randy Bryce got 42.27% of the votes.
2020 - Democratic House Candidate Roger Polack got 40.61% of the votes.
2022 - Democratic House Candidate Ann Roe got 45.14% of the votes.
2024 - Democratic House Candidate Peter Barca got 43.8% of the votes, only 0.1% smaller than Rob Zerban back in 2012.
WI-01 definitely has elements of swinginess.
https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_1st_Congressional_District
I forgot that Barca ran. I've always liked him.
Is Barca a credible candidate? I don’t know much about him to comment.
He was briefly the congressman from WI-1! (Won a special election in 1993, but lost his seat when the Gingrich stole Christmas in 1994.)
But he's better-known for his two long stints in the State Assembly (serving as minority leader during the second), and also served in the Evers Administration.
Thanks for the history!
All I remember for the most part about WI-01 was that Paul Ryan elected to represent it back in 1998 and had served there for two decades.
Since he has left, the influence of Ryan in the district seems to have waned a bit.
Yep, Ryan won the seat after Mark Neumann (the Republican who defeated Barca in 1994) gave it up to run unsuccessfully against Russ Feingold.
Split ticket has him underperforming a generic D by 10 points. That is really bad.
Yeah I was going to ask how does Bryce's performance compares to Baldwin/Evers and/or other statewide Dems in 18.
TRUMP OWNS THE PARTY
It seems to me that the Republican Party may as well replace its representatives in the House with bots. After all, Trump wants to dictate who should serve in Congress as well as their every vote.
On Tuesday, Trump said that House Republicans who vote against his "big, beautiful bill" could face primary challenges, and that they would be "knocked out so fast."
The National Republican Congressional Committee has underscored that it will not be intervening in Republican primaries if President Trump tries to knock off incumbents.
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/20/nrcc-trump-hudson-republican-primaries
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/20/trump-wants-netanyahu-end-gaza-war
So Trump feels empathy for Gazan children but not for the brown American children he's deporting!
It’s impossible for a sociopath to feel empathy. It’s a matter of complicating his pro-Saudi agenda.
I thought trump was going to end the Israeli-Gaza confict within days!
If this was the case, Trump would have likely approached the meeting with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas:
“I am going to make you guys an offer you can’t refuse. It’s like butter!”
C'mon now, when he says "wrap it up" (if he did say it), he means it as a mobster would when they say "take care of our little problem" or "finish the job." It is never benevolent.
Fine with me!
In this case, “Let’s go Trump, let’s go!” /s
VA-Gov: Five and a half months to go and already some Republicans are pulling the fire alarm.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/19/virginia-gop-winsome-earle-sears-worries-00357698
At least this time Politico isn't puffing up the GOP's prospects, opening the piece with "Virginia Republicans are bracing for November with a growing sense of doom."
If politico writes an ''republican in disarray'' article things must be dire.
They say they are neutral and centrist but lean centre-right. Financial Times would be centrist.
Earle-Sears clearing the field never made any sense. She was always a terrible candidate.
Republicans would have been far better off running a(nother) random rich person.
Next in line mentality I guess.
Here in Virginia there are three statewide positions: Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. Because Governors are not permitted to serve consecutive terms (unlike LGs and AGs), the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are considered THE top candidates for Governor after four years. Whenever the LG and AG are of separate parties, expect them to face off against one another in the next election for Governor.
Miyares arguably would have been the stronger Virginia Republican (and I honestly think he would have beaten Earle-Sears in the primary if he chose to run).
Based on what you’ve said in your first paragraph, the company opposite effect has happened with Abigail Spanberger as the Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee.
Something that we weren’t used to during Obama’s presidency, which definitely did happen during Biden: The media punditry is adversarial to whoever and whichever party is in office. Now that Trump’s back (which they wanted and helped to make happen), they’ve gone back to reporting on Trump and the GOP exactly as it is instead of Trumpwashing everything and blaming Democrats for everything.
Which in turn will make them more money from liberal clicks looking for every sign of a pending GOP wipeout after they did the same to get the GOP clicks with Biden in office. The media is all about making money and will do whatever that means to ensure the biggest return. Disgusting pervading of so-called “journalism” to not just report the truth at all times, but it’s the world we live in now, sadly.
Less off topic note: If November 2025 elections in NJ/VA are a blue tsunami, I’d expect this to catalyze a stampede of suburban or Biden district Republicans to retire after of course they party line support Trump’s giveaway to the rich again that is rather than running again knowing they’d lose. Similar to what happened in 2017 elections there for those incumbents running in the 2018 midterms.
I don't know lots of coverage about Biden's health this week related to his diagnosis and CNN pushing a book on the subject. I agree on the second point though a big rout in NJ/VA could help push some members to retire.
Selzer comes out of retirement, lots of new polls dropped today.
Kathy Hochul seems to be in a very bad position in NY.
Is New York turning red?
https://www.racetothewh.com/governor/26polls
Hochul almost certainly will lose the general election if she's the nominee-the question is more "has the race swung to such an extent that Hochul retiring or being primaried is completely meaningless?"-which very well could be the case if Lawler or Stefanik is the Republican nominee.
I don’t think it’s almost certain that she will lose and I’m no big fan of hers. Especially with a Republican in the White House.
Yeah, I'll believe Hochul losing re-election in a 2026 midterm with Trump in the White House as much as I believe Emerson's garbage poll about Trump having evenly split approval in New Jersey.
Emerson's poll is garbage but this is Siena polling.
Sienna has Hochul at -2 approval. Which is not great but totally fine with Trump in the white house.
Partisanship and the midterm backlash has dragged much less popular incumbent governors over the finishing line.
Am I missing something? It just says she has a -2 favor ability rating. I that's not that bad. You want to know who would lose a general election campaign? Richie Torres.
Why are you sure Torres would lose?
I wouldn't say I'm sure, but it is much more likely. From NYC, black, gay, viewed as liberal but many liberals wouldn't like him based on a bunch of his positions. It would be very tough for him to win, unless Trump cratered the general opinion on Republicans.
Again with this nonsense. I will literally bet you any amount of money that Hochul wins the general, unless the national mood somehow turns extremely anti-Dem between now and then.
I didn't know Selzer had ever announced her retirement. And if the Democrats lose the governor's race because of Hochul, that would just be an immense and infuriating own goal!
I see that Lawler would have appeal because of his moderate image but what is so special about Stefanik? I guess she would win the Charedim vote and....? She's fully MAGA.
She's more able to fool the electorate than many Republicans are. Keep in mind that New York LOVES its "moderate Republican" Governors.
But Stefanik is full MAGA!
Voters have to think so.
Really? When’s the last time they elected one?
2002, but Cuomo and Hochul mask the fact that New York is more than willing to elect a Republican Governor if they are socially moderate enough as Pataki was.
Pataki was no moderate. He certainly was no Nelson Rockefeller
Compared to the rest of his party in 1994-George Pataki was definitely a moderate.
(Hell, I don't think his voting record would be that different from Joe Manchin's if both were in the Senate now).
It would be! Pataki is MAGA now!
He's pro choice. Even by 1994 standards that very much qualified as moderate.
Not only that, he was environmentalist and for gay rights by those days' standards, from what I recall. He screwed the cities big-time in funding, but we knew he would do that.
Which is THE reason why Giuliani backed Cuomo over him in 1994.
Absolutely. Giuliani actually gave a damn about New York City, or at least the white parts of it, in those days.
If Hochul as unpopular as the polling is showing neither our nominee nor their nominee will matter-the race is essentially already over.
Eh, New York is still *at least* blue-leaning, and this will be a Trump midterm. The GOP nominee will probably be a MAGA freak. We can certainly do better than Hochul, but I don't think she'll be facing an environment as bad as 2022 (and she won then).
Lol
I’m not sure what poll you’re talking about. The Siena poll? Where’s Selzer poll?
You need to sort by date or scroll it.
I did. And last one I see is a Republican one from a month ago. Siena release a poll today that only had primary numbers.
https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/SNY0525-Crosstabs.pdf
Selzer is there. Sort alphabetically by Pollster and you will see three Selzer polls. By number added, they are at #23, #24 and #25.
With Harris as president? Yes, it could easily turn red. With Trump as president? Not. A. Chance. Regardless of who they nominate. Partisanship is too strong today.
Enough Harris voters would hold their nose for Hochul rather than giving Trump’s GOP a win in a blue state. Harris won New York by 13 points. Even as an underperformance, that’s still a lot of wiggle room for an unpopular Governor of the same party to win again.
Not a chance seems too strong to me, but yeah, pretty much.
If Deval Patrick could win re-election in a landslide in 2010 despite horrendous approval numbers, Hochul can certainly win re-election in 2026
MA then (and today) is a decent bit more blue than NY is today.
I think the cycle itself will likely be enough to save Hochul but I'd agree with Michael too. There's enough uncertainty here that she isn't 100% safe.
Yeah, to me 'not a chance' means the favorite can win easily without campaigning. I don't think this race would be in that category.
A Comprehensive New Data Analysis Into Why Harris Lost in 2024
The Catalist “What Happened” study, finds that Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 loss was due to two key factors.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/comprehensive-new-data-analysis-why-harris-lost-2024
#TooSoon
But I'll probably check it out eventually.
Pretty clear that there are a lot of “persuadable” male voters who don’t want a female president.
Yes, sadly so. The divergence between genders is dramatic and, imho, damning. As others have pointed out, if women did not have the right to vote, Trump would have won in a landslide in 2020.
Right Wing Comic Tim Dillon in April: Democrats are weak for not going on Podcasts like mine and Rogan's in 2024: https://www.outkick.com/culture/tim-dillon-democrats-hiding-podcasts-criticism-video
Right Wing Comic Tim Dillion in May: Podcasts like mine and Rogan's did not help boost Trump and sink Harris: https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/tim-dillon-rejects-crazy-idea-that-podcasters-turned-voters-off-to-kamala-harris/
Full disclosure, for those of you who don't know who Tim Dillon is, he is a loud, gay MAGA friendly comic who's podcast I unfortunately had to work on when I was at a terrible management company in early 2024 before I went on to work on the Harris-Walz campaign on the YouTube side towards the end of the campaign. Tim Dillon has Netflix specials, makes the rounds at the comedy clubs and desperately wants to be Joe Rogan. Comedian Anthony Jeselnik has called out clowns like Dillon and Tony Hinchcliffe quite a bit. When I was working on Dillon's podcast, his producer was trying to be the first Podcast to get Trump on as a guest. In the end, Rogan and Schulz and Von got Trump while he had to settle for J.D. Vance.
I think Dillon is bull shitting here because of how well Pete Buttigieg's interview was received on Andrew Schulz's Podcast, who also had Trump on. The most viral clips were Buttigieg perfectly explaining what Democrats stand for and even Schulz was impressed. The comments on YouTube were predominantly well received. But then Schulz brought on Bernie Sanders and he starts off with cheering Sanders for being trashed by Democrats and of course the clips are the parts of the interview that go the most viral are Sanders repeated critiques of the party. Now, whether or not you agree with Sanders' critiques of the Democratic Party, guys like Schulz, Von and Rogan will get Sanders to go off on the party and highlight those parts while underplaying any criticism of Trump and the GOP. Whereas if Sanders were to go on Colbert, they share and emphasize more of his critiques on Trump and the GOP. It's clear Schulz took a chance with Buttigieg and what he proved is these clown comics act all tough but won't bash someone like Buttigieg to his face. They'll just sit there and listen because they aren't smart enough to actually challenge Democrats. I think that Schulz felt he needed to get Sanders on his Podcast because the Buttigieg clips were getting praised by folks who would not listen to Schulz whereas Schulz's more dedicated audience are right leaning males. Guys like Schulz don't want a Democratic or liberal audience because they are lazy shock comics. At this point, Sanders shouldn't be on these podcasts anymore. They don't really care or agree with him, they just want to see him bash the Democrats.
Tim Dillon has a cult following but doesn't have the same reach as Rogan, Von or even Schulz. So to me, it's even more funny to see him try to convince CNN that MAGA friendly comedic Podcasters had no influence in last year's election. I think the extend of the influence can be overblown but it did have an influence. Barron Trump was the one who told his fuck face father to go on Rogan and Von and Schulz. Harris choosing to go on podcasts like Call Her Daddy and not his is not a reflection on the Democratic Party as Dillon likes to claim. The truth is that Democrats didn't go on his Podcast because he's crass, rude, stupid, loud an asshole and loves picking on immigrants. He's the ultimate punching down comic. If anything, Dillon only managing to get Vance and failing to get Trump on his show is a reflection on how limited his reach is in that comedy circle and it's also more of a reflection of how far CNN has fallen that the only one of these Podcasters they could get was Tim Dillon.
I do wish Pete Buttigieg would go on Joe Rogan! That would tempt me to listen to Rogan for the second time. (The first time was Rogan’s interview with Magnus Carlsen, the strongest chess player in the world.)
Only time I listened to Rogan was his interview with Ms. Pat back in 2019.
Wonder if the folks in Tornado Alley have heard from their exalted leader in DC?
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/politics/maine-laurel-libby-supreme-court
Supreme Court rules 7-2 that Laurel Libby (R) should have her voting powers restored in the Maine Legislature next session after being stripped of them for anti-trans remarks.
Elena Kagan (the only member of the liberal wing to not dissent) should be ashamed of herself here-ruling in favor of Libby is like ruling in favor of the eugenicists in Buck v Bell in my opinion.
This was injunctive relief, not on the merits. The case raises free speech and separation of powers issues. There may have been some inconsistency in granting the injunction on this one, as Jackson states, but the case is not cut and dry as you appear to imply.