Morning Digest: Paul LePage is mulling a comeback—and Republicans have reason to fear him

But the ex-governor isn't exactly known for his follow-through

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (credit: Paul LePage campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

ME-02

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage is considering challenging Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, the Bangor Daily Press' Michael Shepherd reports. However, while the self-proclaimed "Donald Trump before Donald Trump" would give Republicans a well-known contender for Golden's competitive constituency in northern Maine, his unexpected interest could freeze the GOP's recruitment efforts as everyone waits to see what the 76-year-old ex-governor will do.

One person who might not appreciate LePage's newest deliberations is former state Rep. Austin Theriault, who narrowly failed to unseat Golden last year. While Theriault has not yet revealed his plans, Shepherd characterizes him as "likely to run again." Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart also hasn't tamped down on speculation that he could campaign for Congress, though he's been talked about as a possible candidate for governor as well.

Golden could also seek LePage's old job rather than run for a fifth term in the 2nd Congressional District, a constituency that Trump carried 54-44 last year. LePage himself carried the district by a small 50-47 spread in 2022 during his failed campaign to regain the governorship from Democratic incumbent Janet Mills, but that slender win was far from enough to offset his blowout loss in the 1st District to the south.

Republicans will target Golden's seat no matter what he does, but there was no indication that LePage was in the mix to replace him before Thursday. That changed, though, when Shepherd relayed that his sources "have heard from those in the former governor's inner circle that he is seriously considering a run." A longtime LePage advisor didn't deny those reporters, merely saying, "People know Paul LePage cares deeply about Maine jobs, the economy, families and way of life."

Mainers, however, may also remember how LePage twice flirted with running for Congress only to back down. The first of these teases came in 2013, shortly after Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud, who represented the 2nd District, started raising money to challenge the governor the following year.

LePage surprised reporters by telling them he was "considering running for Mike Michaud's seat if you want to know the truth because it can't be any worse in Washington than it is here." The governor added that he didn't "take myself as seriously as all you do"—and demonstrated why just a week later when he announced that he wouldn't run for the House after all. LePage instead went on to win reelection against Michaud.

Four years later, when LePage was prohibited from seeking a third consecutive term, there was chatter he could instead take on Sen. Angus King. LePage gyrated wildly throughout 2017, first saying—seemingly definitively—that he wouldn't oppose the Democratic-aligned independent only to backtrack before once again declaring he wouldn't go for it.

LePage, who admitted that he "wouldn't make a very good legislator" and fretted that "[i]f I run for U.S. Senate, I will be a single man," ultimately turned down Trump's recruitment pitch and kept his marriage intact.

The former governor, though, has had a tough time sticking with whatever his current job—or even state—happens to be. In 2016, LePage threatened to resign from the governorship only to characteristically reverse himself just hours later. While he did serve out the remainder of his second and final term, he registered to vote in Florida the day Mills succeeded him.

"I'm done with politics," LePage said in early 2019. Less than two years later, he declared he'd challenge Mills with a defiant maxim of, "If I'm breathing, I'm running." It was the rare threat the former governor did indeed make good on, but his comeback ended in a stinging 56-42 defeat. LePage re-registered in Florida not long after, and Shepherd says he's spent most of the last two years in the Sunshine State.

But while LePage may have one more relocation left in him, Republicans would have good reason to fret that the truckload of baggage he'd haul back north could damage him even in the conservative 2nd District. While in office, LePage regularly made headlines as an unfiltered proto-Trump with a penchant for commentary that was both offensive and untrue.

In 2016, for instance, LePage blamed the state's opioid epidemic on "guys with the name D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty" who "come from Connecticut and New York" to "sell their heroin" then "go back home." He added, "Incidentally, half the time they impregnate a young white girl before they leave, which is a real sad thing because then we have another issue we've got to deal with down the road."

Public records were later released that showed that most drug arrests in Maine involved white suspects.

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Governors

CA-Gov

Kamala Harris will decide on a bid for governor by "the end of the summer," reports Politico, according to two unnamed sources. (For those marking their calendars, the Farmers' Almanac says that autumn begins on Sept. 22 at 2:19 PM ET.) Most other California Democrats appear prepared to defer to her, and even allies of the lone holdout, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, "have shared doubts" about his plans to stay in the race should Harris get in.

ME-Gov

Former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who previously had deflected questions about running for Maine's open governorship next year, said Friday that he was creating an exploratory committee as he considers a bid. Jackson, who left office at the end of last year due to term limits, is one of several notable Democrats angling to succeed Gov. Janet Mills, but he's the first to publicly acknowledge his interest.

House

FL-19

Jim Oberweis may now be a Florida Man, but unlike most septuagenarians who flee south from colder climes, he's not retiring. Far from it: The former Illinois state senator and frequent candidate for office is once again running for the House.

An astonishingly large number of washed-up Republican pols from other states have their eyes on Florida's open 19th District, but Oberweis, a wealthy dairy magnate, is the first to take the plunge into the warm waters off Fort Myers.

Morning Digest: Like snowbirds, pols from across the country are eyeing this Florida district

Back in the Land of Lincoln, though, he experienced far more failure than success: Oberweis lost two races for the Senate, two races for the House, and one race for governor (some in primaries, others in the general election) before finally securing a seat in the state Senate in 2012.

He managed to wage yet another losing campaign for the (U.S.) Senate in 2014 before winning reelection two years later. But rather than seek a third term in the legislature, he again ran for the House in 2020, losing to Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood.

That last defeat seems to have turned Oberweis into an election denialist. After that loss, he challenged his defeat before the House of Representatives, claiming without evidence that thousands of mail ballots were improperly counted. The rejection of that challenge, he now says, came about because the House "was controlled by Democrats," but in reality, a bipartisan report recommended it be dismissed.

Only his personal fortune keeps Oberweis from being relegated to the perennial candidate pile; his fellow Republicans, meanwhile, are likely to keep him from Congress. In addition to all the out-of-staters, a passel of local politicos also have their eyes on the safely red 19th District—and some have actually won more often than they've lost.