The poll, which was conducted from Feb. 20 to Feb. 27, found that 53% of voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president compared to only 44% of voters who approve of his job so far.
The poll, which was conducted from Feb. 20 to Feb. 27, found that 53% of voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president compared to only 44% of voters who approve of his job so far.
If we see more polling like that, it might turn out that the pro-republican snapback in Texas last year was an aberration and the slow but steady trend towards competitive is still real. Would be great if that's the case — putting Texas on the board in the 2030s would be a huge benefit for us.
It can be real competitive in 2026 with a blue wave. Even more if Democrats can get James Talarico, a Christian Democrat firebrand to run against Ken Paxton in the Senate race. I bet that Ken wins against Thune easily with a Trump endorsement. He would easy to brand as an extremist with swing voters.
Do you buy it? Remember the polls before the election were showing Texas to be a five-point race. Trump won by 14. My skepticism about polls ticked up another notch after this cycle...especially Sun Belt State polls.
Yeah I'd take this poll with a humongous grain of salt. At best national polling is showing him underwater by a few points . . no way is Texas currently to the left of the country.
I'm always skeptical of the polls! Turned out there was a huge gap last year between the big online polls heavily weighted to partisanship and recalled vote, who unsurprisingly found a pretty similar 2020 result in most states, versus pollsters like NYT/Siena who allowed their samples to diverge and correctly saw the looming double digit shifts in states like TX, FL, and NY.
UT Tyler unfortunately looked more like the former than the latter in 2024, finding Harris only down 5 points in TX a couple weeks before the election. Totality of polling today (what little is still being conducted at a rigorous level) shows results more or less unchanged from last November. No surprise, most new presidents don't see their numbers sink until the end of summer. Although Trump is doing his best to speed up that process.
What a strange poll. Trump is underwater, but voters approve of him on the economy and the border.
Also, more Dems were born in the state than Republicans. 62% vs 50%. Looks like all the recent migration to Texas has helped Republicans maintain their hold on the state.
Someone noted awhile ago that Texas polls struggle with accurately describing the born in TX vs transplant thing. A better estimate of what's going on is that people who moved to TX in the 80's through 2000's tend to lean pretty red, but recent transplants to TX (who are of course really outnumbered by the former group in poll samples) are much bluer. It is not a good assumption to make that if TX had barred all new transplants over the past 15 years that it would somehow be a bluer state.
Interesting. The poll seems to suggest the opposite, with a higher percentage of Republicans having moved to the state for the first time in the past 10 years than Dems (15% vs 8%). Not really sure what to make of it.
If polarization in movers caused TX and FL to surge to the right, then I'm trying to figure out why IL, NY, NJ, MA, CA, etc., also moved pretty far right, some in the same ballpark as the first two. I don't deny that partisanship drives some domestic migration but it seems like it must play a pretty small role given that we're generally not seeing red states get redder and blue states bluer, at least in recent years (there is a longer running trend back to the 1960s/1970s of the number of swing states reducing and safe states increasing but there's other reasons for that than migration).
We were seeing it till 2020 but since then Democrat turnout decreased due to inflation and the border crisis along with swing voters shifting to the GOP.
Migration would only explain states where substantial chunk of electorate being new arrivals.
Also you can see the trend in areas gaining or losing population or higher turnover rate. The fast growing exurbs of central FL and two coasts, as well as the shrinking SEFL with a lot of moving in and out, are turning red in lightning speeds. I do buy the newcomers are R+40.
Skaje, what about generational renewal? Any thoughts on the proportion of R to D that die, and R to D amongst the youth turning 18 and added to the voter rolls? Do you see any net partisan movement in this?
https://archive.ph/nDa4p : Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action, NYT Upshot Voter analysis 2020-2024
Texas movers leaned +20R and Florida +40R. Blue states movers leaned democrat and vice versa.
Also, where do we think folks move from Arkansas, Louisiana, Missisippi, Oklahoma etc? It's Texas and Florida. These states have declining or stagnant populations despite having a high fertility rate 20-30 years ago whose effects would have been seen today. In addition, the article says that California has mass exported republicans to Texas, Arizona and Nevada.
I really can't buy that Trump is that low in Texas, at least not yet. That's actually worse than his average national numbers.
I can see Dems making gains in the state in 2026, particularly at the state and local levels (not sure if any GOP congressional districts are flippable yet).
Averages have a lag, especially during a time of rapid change in opinion – which I believe we are seeing. It would be interesting to plot the time interval during which each poll was undertaken, and in addition take into account the historical bias / quality of each pollster.
UTyler Texas poll:
The poll, which was conducted from Feb. 20 to Feb. 27, found that 53% of voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president compared to only 44% of voters who approve of his job so far.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ut-tyler-poll-measures-voters-020718617.html
A mere 44-percent approval of Trump in Texas is very good for Democrats and pro-democracy Texans – and the country.
Given that Trump is trying to speedrun us into a recession I imagine that those numbers would be even worse for him today. Nice to see.
Whoa, in Texas? During an ostensible political honeymoon?
If we see more polling like that, it might turn out that the pro-republican snapback in Texas last year was an aberration and the slow but steady trend towards competitive is still real. Would be great if that's the case — putting Texas on the board in the 2030s would be a huge benefit for us.
We’re gonna need it if certain census projections from 2020-24 wind up being correct about reapportionment
It can be real competitive in 2026 with a blue wave. Even more if Democrats can get James Talarico, a Christian Democrat firebrand to run against Ken Paxton in the Senate race. I bet that Ken wins against Thune easily with a Trump endorsement. He would easy to brand as an extremist with swing voters.
Do you buy it? Remember the polls before the election were showing Texas to be a five-point race. Trump won by 14. My skepticism about polls ticked up another notch after this cycle...especially Sun Belt State polls.
Yeah I'd take this poll with a humongous grain of salt. At best national polling is showing him underwater by a few points . . no way is Texas currently to the left of the country.
I'm always skeptical of the polls! Turned out there was a huge gap last year between the big online polls heavily weighted to partisanship and recalled vote, who unsurprisingly found a pretty similar 2020 result in most states, versus pollsters like NYT/Siena who allowed their samples to diverge and correctly saw the looming double digit shifts in states like TX, FL, and NY.
UT Tyler unfortunately looked more like the former than the latter in 2024, finding Harris only down 5 points in TX a couple weeks before the election. Totality of polling today (what little is still being conducted at a rigorous level) shows results more or less unchanged from last November. No surprise, most new presidents don't see their numbers sink until the end of summer. Although Trump is doing his best to speed up that process.
i believe Trump. is def dropping in overall approvals(not commenting on this specific poll)
It's mostly sentiment at this point but sentiment can in fact change any way it can with voters, especially with TX voters.
What a strange poll. Trump is underwater, but voters approve of him on the economy and the border.
Also, more Dems were born in the state than Republicans. 62% vs 50%. Looks like all the recent migration to Texas has helped Republicans maintain their hold on the state.
Someone noted awhile ago that Texas polls struggle with accurately describing the born in TX vs transplant thing. A better estimate of what's going on is that people who moved to TX in the 80's through 2000's tend to lean pretty red, but recent transplants to TX (who are of course really outnumbered by the former group in poll samples) are much bluer. It is not a good assumption to make that if TX had barred all new transplants over the past 15 years that it would somehow be a bluer state.
Interesting. The poll seems to suggest the opposite, with a higher percentage of Republicans having moved to the state for the first time in the past 10 years than Dems (15% vs 8%). Not really sure what to make of it.
https://archive.ph/nDa4p : Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action, NYT Upshot Voter analysis 2020-24.
Texas movers leaned +20R and Florida +40R. Blue states movers leaned democrat and vice versa.
If polarization in movers caused TX and FL to surge to the right, then I'm trying to figure out why IL, NY, NJ, MA, CA, etc., also moved pretty far right, some in the same ballpark as the first two. I don't deny that partisanship drives some domestic migration but it seems like it must play a pretty small role given that we're generally not seeing red states get redder and blue states bluer, at least in recent years (there is a longer running trend back to the 1960s/1970s of the number of swing states reducing and safe states increasing but there's other reasons for that than migration).
We were seeing it till 2020 but since then Democrat turnout decreased due to inflation and the border crisis along with swing voters shifting to the GOP.
https://www.270towin.com/states/california
California has gone bluer and bluer from 1990s till 2020.
Migration would only explain states where substantial chunk of electorate being new arrivals.
Also you can see the trend in areas gaining or losing population or higher turnover rate. The fast growing exurbs of central FL and two coasts, as well as the shrinking SEFL with a lot of moving in and out, are turning red in lightning speeds. I do buy the newcomers are R+40.
Texas, not so sure.
Skaje, what about generational renewal? Any thoughts on the proportion of R to D that die, and R to D amongst the youth turning 18 and added to the voter rolls? Do you see any net partisan movement in this?
Bright spot: movement to GA, MI, WI, and PA were all +12 to +17 D. Those four states are going to be the next blue wall.
https://archive.ph/nDa4p : Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action, NYT Upshot Voter analysis 2020-2024
Texas movers leaned +20R and Florida +40R. Blue states movers leaned democrat and vice versa.
Also, where do we think folks move from Arkansas, Louisiana, Missisippi, Oklahoma etc? It's Texas and Florida. These states have declining or stagnant populations despite having a high fertility rate 20-30 years ago whose effects would have been seen today. In addition, the article says that California has mass exported republicans to Texas, Arizona and Nevada.
I really can't buy that Trump is that low in Texas, at least not yet. That's actually worse than his average national numbers.
I can see Dems making gains in the state in 2026, particularly at the state and local levels (not sure if any GOP congressional districts are flippable yet).
this is kinda my take also; i def think that Trump is dropping in overall approvals
Averages have a lag, especially during a time of rapid change in opinion – which I believe we are seeing. It would be interesting to plot the time interval during which each poll was undertaken, and in addition take into account the historical bias / quality of each pollster.