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ArcticStones's avatar

Simple fact: I don’t know a single intelligent, sensitive person who is *not* suffering mental distress or depression knowing what voters chose and now witnessing what the Trump Regime is doing to this country!

Americans have so many misconceptions about mental health. I sincerely hope Yadira Caraveo does not suffer a fate similar to Senator Tom Eagleton. Older members of the DownBallot community will remember that he was George McGovern’s vice presidential nominee – until his struggles with depression emerged.

I wish the former, and hopefully future, Congresswoman the very best of luck with her campaign!

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Zero Cool's avatar

Oakland Mayoral Special Election

I know there are more votes yet to be counted. However, my gut feeling is that Loren Taylor may end up winning the election.

The problem is, while Taylor's margin of lead over Barbara Lee has dropped from 2.5% in the First RCV Round to 2.4% in the 9th RCV Round, his overall voting percentage during the time has increased 3% from 48.2% to 51.2%.

Back in the 2022 Mayoral Election, Taylor did lead Sheng Thao by 1.28 in the first RCV round. However, in the 7th RCV round Thao ended up overtaking Taylor by 0.6% points with a narrow lead of 50.3% points vs. Taylor who had 49.7% of the votes at the time. Such movement has not happened this time around and turnout is substantially lower than it was in 2022.

Taylor currently leads with 24,347 votes compared to back in 2022 when he was barely trailing Sheng Thao with 56,529 votes cast for him at the time of the 9th RCV Round. Unless the additional votes yet to be counted are going to make a substantial difference for both Taylor and Lee, I don't see how there's going to be much movement in this election.

Maybe there's something I'm missing but right now, I don't see how the math is leaning in Lee's direction.

2022 Mayoral Election

https://www.alamedacountyca.gov/rovresults/rcv/248/rcvresults.htm?race=Oakland%2F001-Mayor

2025 Mayoral Special Election

https://alamedacountyca.gov/rovresults/rcv/257/rcvresults.htm?race=Oakland%2F001-Mayor

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