Morning Digest: A friendless DeSantis struggles to find a successor who doesn't hate him

Once the colossus of Florida politics, the lame-duck governor is now under siege by former allies

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (credit: Ron DeSantis campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

FL-Gov

Ron DeSantis is in the unenviable position of watching as two politicians he despises, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Rep. Byron Donalds, emerge as the most likely candidates to succeed him as governor in next year's Republican primary.

The already poor relationship between Simpson and the termed-out DeSantis, whom the Tampa Bay Times' Romy Ellenbogen writes have been locked in a "long-simmering feud," grew still worse this week when the legislature passed a bill to transfer many of the governor's immigration enforcement powers to the commissioner's office.

A furious DeSantis, who has promised to veto the "Tackling and Reforming Unlawful Migration Policy" act (enjoy the unsubtle abbreviation), has responded by savaging his would-be successor.

The governor fired off a tweet Tuesday blasting GOP legislative leaders for empowering Simpson, whom he accused of having once "voted to give drivers licenses and in-state tuition to illegals." Simpson fired back, "I’m not the one who opposed and ran against President Trump."

But while DeSantis and Simpson have long been on the outs, the governor and Donalds were allies until just a few years ago. That started to change in 2023, though, when the congressman supported Trump in the presidential primary, and things only got worse as the contest continued.

Donalds, who is Black, attracted national attention two years ago when he took issue with revisions to Florida's history curriculum, which among other things sought to teach middle schoolers "how slaves developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit." Donalds tweeted that, while he generally approved the new plan, he believed its message about slavery "is wrong & needs to be adjusted."

DeSantis' team responded by labeling Donalds a "supposed conservative" and asking sarcastically, "Did Kamala Harris write this tweet?" The two do not appear to have repaired their once-strong ties in the year since DeSantis' presidential campaign ended, with one unnamed source recently telling The Hill's Julia Manchester, "I don’t think Gov. DeSantis would purposefully do anything to give Byron any favors."

But even though DeSantis would like an alternative to choose from over Simpson and Donalds, whom local observers have long expected will each run, it remains to be seen whether there's anyone he might turn to.

Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, who was DeSantis' running mate during both his 2018 and 2022 campaigns, has been mentioned as a possibility, and Kadia Goba writes in Semafor that donors are waiting to see what she'll do. DeSantis, however, may have other ideas.

NBC's Matt Dixon reported earlier this month that the governor might instead appoint Nunez to serve as president of her alma mater, Florida International University. He would then be able to pick a new lieutenant governor, whom Dixon writes "would be viewed as DeSantis’ preferred pick to run for governor to replace him." Yet despite all these possible machinations, Dixon's sources say that DeSantis doesn't even have a short list of possible contenders.

A new poll from the GOP company Victory Insights indicates that DeSantis has reason to be pessimistic about Nunez's prospects. The survey, which the firm says was not conducted for "any candidate or committee," shows Donalds defeating Nunez 31-4 in a hypothetical primary, with Simpson grabbing just 3%.

The poll did not ask primary voters whether they might back former Rep. Matt Gaetz who—you won't be surprised to learn—also has a frosty relationship with DeSantis and continues to draw national headlines whenever he talks about running for governor. It did, however, ask about his favorability ratings, finding him with considerably higher negatives than any other Republican.

The numbers also aren't inspiring for Simpson, who is largely unknown, but Dixon says that the commissioner has already stockpiled $30 million in his campaign coffers to get his name out.

Donalds, for his part, is close to Trump, who last year asked him if he would run for governor. However, it remains to be seen whether Trump will ultimately intervene in the same way he did in 2018, when his support helped catapult DeSantis past the initial frontrunner, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam.

That endorsement set DeSantis on the path to becoming the most powerful Republican in state politics, but he's entering the twilight of his governorship in an uncharacteristically weak position. On Monday, the GOP-dominated legislature overrode DeSantis' veto on a spending bill, a rejection no Florida governor has experienced since 2010. And while DeSantis appears to have enough support among lawmakers to keep the (sigh) TRUMP Act from becoming law, Republicans have threatened to bypass him on future bills.

"It’s a new day in Tallahassee, and I think the Legislature is going to step up," said state Sen. Randy Fine, who is the GOP nominee for the April 1 special election in the deep red 6th Congressional District. Fine—yet another former DeSantis ally turned detractor—further summed up the governor's with just four words: "Flailing guy losing relevance."

The Downballot Podcast

Special elections are back, baby!

It's only January, but it's been a hell of a week for downballot news, starting with a massive Democratic upset in an Iowa special election. We're covering the astonishing result and all its implications in depth on the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, including what it might mean for upcoming races like the pivotal April 1 showdown for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Michigan Senate race, which was just scrambled by Gary Peters' surprise retirement, and the contest for governor in Arizona, where a far-right congressman's bid could be music to Democratic ears. They wrap up with two new state Supreme Court rulings: one positive in Minnesota, and one very troubling in North Carolina for anyone who believes in democracy.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Governors

NM-Gov

Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland has all but kicked off her campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, with a spokesperson saying on Tuesday that she's "getting ready to run to be New Mexico’s next governor."

A two-month-old poll also shows her far ahead of her likeliest rival in the Democratic primary, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. The survey, conducted in early December by Public Policy Polling for an unknown client and obtained by reporter Joe Monahan, finds Haaland leading by a 50-18 margin.

Republicans, meanwhile, have yet to land a candidate, but Monahan tosses in a new possibility, former Rep. Yvette Herrell. Herrell, who failed to win a second term in 2022 against Democrat Gabe Vasquez and lost last year's rematch, has not publicly expressed interest in a statewide campaign.

OH-Gov

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy holds a wide 52-18 lead over Attorney General Dave Yost in a likely Republican primary matchup for Ohio's open governorship, according to a new survey commissioned by a group supporting Ramaswamy. The poll, which was conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates a few days ago and obtained by Axios, also finds state Treasurer Robert Sprague at 2% and 27% of voters undecided. Axios did not identify the exact identity of the poll's sponsor.

Judges

AZ Supreme Court

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs appointed Arizona Court of Appeals Judge Maria Elena Cruz to a vacant seat on the state Supreme Court on Wednesday, making her both the first Latina and the first Black person to serve on the state's highest court.

Cruz will also be the only justice appointed by a Democrat and the first since Scott Bales, who was named to the nine-member court by Janet Napolitano in 2005 and stepped down in 2019. She'll fill the seat previously held by Robert Brutinel, who was tapped by Republican Jan Brewer in 2010 and announced his retirement last year.

Cruz will serve until 2028, when she'll face a retention election. If she wins, she'd earn a full six-year term.

Hobbs chose Cruz's name from a list of five finalists selected by the state's Commission on Appellate Court Appointments, which is also responsible for choosing members of Arizona's independent redistricting commission. The governor, who's previously named four of the appointment panel's 16 members, will also have a chance to reshape it further, since two seats are vacant and five commissioners' terms have expired.

Democrats had charged that Hobbs' predecessor, Republican Doug Ducey, had sought to stack the commission, which by law is barred from having more than eight members of a single political party. In 2019, however, Ducey chose two nominal independents with close ties to Republicans, including a former GOP precinct committeeman and a son-in-law of a Republican legislator.

Mayors & County Leaders

Northampton County, PA Executive

Amy Cozze, the former director of elections in Pennsylvania's Northampton County, announced Monday that she was joining the May 20 primary to succeed retiring Executive Lamont McClure, a fellow Democrat.

Cozze, who unsuccessfully ran for the state House in 2018, recently served as a senior Senate staffer to Bob Casey, who lost reelection last year to Republican Dave McCormick. She'll take on County Controller Tara Zrinski for the Democratic nomination, while County Councilman Tom Giovanni currently has the GOP side to himself.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Alameda County, CA District Attorney

The Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday appointed Judge Ursula Jones Dickson as district attorney to replace Pamela Price, whom voters ousted in a November recall election by a wide 63-37 margin.

Dickson previously committed to running in the special election that will be held for the remainder of Price's term next year, but whoever wins that contest will be up again in 2028.

That's because the California legislature passed a law in 2022 to require most counties to hold elections for district attorney and sheriff in presidential cycles starting in 2028. To realign the calendar, the legislation added two years to the terms of everyone elected to those offices in 2022, though Price's recall meant she only got to serve a third of that extended term.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

A federal judge sentenced former New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez to 11 years in prison on Wednesday, following the Democrat's conviction last year on 16 counts of corruption.

Menendez has asked the judge to allow him to remain free while he appeals his case, but as one former prosecutor explained to the New Jersey Monitor last year, judges "don't typically wait for appeals to resolve before ordering defendants to report to prison."

The ex-senator, who resigned last year after a jury convicted him on charges that included bribery, has also reportedly sought a pardon from Donald Trump. After his sentencing, during which he shed tears in court, Menendez made an unsubtle plea to the new occupant of the White House.

"President Trump was right," he declared. "This process is political, and it’s corrupted to the core. I hope President Trump cleans up the cesspool and restores the integrity to the system."

Where Are They Now?

Federal prosecutors have dropped charges against former Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who was set to be retried on accusations that he'd lied to federal agents in connection with an effort to funnel $30,000 to his campaign via straw donors.

Fortenberry was convicted by a jury in Los Angeles in 2022, but a federal appeals court overturned his conviction the following year, saying the Department of Justice had tried the Nebraskan in the wrong jurisdiction. To resolve the issue, prosecutors re-indicted Fortenberry in Washington, D.C., last year.

However, Donald Trump had attacked the prosecution, and under his new administration, the Justice Department has abandoned cases against many of his allies. Trump falsely claimed after prosecutors dismissed Fortenberry's case that charges had been brought because of "the illegal Weaponization of our Justice System by the Radical Left Democrats."