Morning Digest: A powerful office is now open for only the third time this century

The race could attract several rising stars, and maybe even a few fallen ones

Former Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, a once and potentially future candidate for state attorney general (credit: George P. Bush campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-AG

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's decision to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn for renomination has also set off the race to succeed Paxton in one of the most powerful posts in America's second-largest state.

Paxton, who first won this seat in 2014, spent the following decade advancing his far-right agenda by waging high-profile lawsuits against the Obama and Biden administrations. The attorney general also attracted national attention by trying to overturn the 2020 election, a failed effort that nonetheless firmly established him as a vital Donald Trump ally. Paxton himself has remained a force in state politics despite numerous scandals, including a 2023 impeachment that ended with his acquittal in the state Senate.

He's also only the latest attorney general to try to use his post as a springboard to higher office. Cornyn, whose 1998 election made him the first Republican to hold this office since Reconstruction, easily secured his Senate seat four years later.

Greg Abbott, who succeeded Cornyn in 2002, became such a prominent force in state politics during his three terms that he deterred any serious opponents from challenging him in the 2014 primary for governor—a difficult task in a state with no shortage of ambitious Republicans. Paxton's own attempt at a promotion means that there will be an open seat race for attorney general for only the third time in the 21st century.

Republicans got their first candidate Wednesday when John Bash, who served as U.S. attorney for West Texas during Trump's first term, announced he was in. Bash, Bloomberg's Ryan Autullo highlights, is currently defending Elon Musk in a defamation case.

There's a long list of potential candidates who could join Bash in the primary. Gromer Jeffers of the Dallas Morning News identified several possible candidates late last month before Abbott made his plans official, and Pluribus News added several names Wednesday:

• Former Land Commissioner George P. Bush

• State Sen. Brandon Creighton

• Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman

• State Sen. Bryan Hughes

• Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson

• State Rep. Jeff Leach

• State Rep. Mitch Little

• Rep. Chip Roy

• Federal Elections Commissioner Trey Trainor

• Federal Judge Don Willett

Roy, who is a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, is arguably the most prominent member of this group, though that's not necessarily a good thing for him. Trump last year expressed his wish for someone to wage a primary campaign against the congressman, a hardliner who remains a difficult vote for the administration's priorities. No one has taken up this call yet, but there's still plenty of time for Trump to exact vengeance on Roy no matter what office the congressman decides to pursue.

Bush and Guzman can attest to just how tough it is to win a Republican primary against a Trump-backed foe. In 2022 the pair challenged the scandal-ridden Paxton, who maintained Trump's enthusiastic support. Bush, who is the son of Jeb Bush and the nephew of George W. Bush, still tried to win over Trump fans. His efforts included distributing a beer koozie depicting the two shaking hands above a Trump quote reading, "This is the only Bush that likes me! This is the Bush that got it right. I like him."

But while Bush, who used to be nicknamed "47," was able to beat out Guzman to win a spot in the runoff, Paxton crushed him in the second round. (Bush, whether he runs again or not, will presumably avoid associating himself with the number 47.)

Other Republicans on this list have also generated notice. Johnson is a former Democrat who switched parties in 2023, which makes Dallas the largest city in the country with a Republican mayor. Leach was in the news that year for serving as an impeachment manager in Paxton's trial before the state Senate, and the state representative went on to win renomination against a Paxton-backed primary foe.

Democrats are sure to also eye the race to reclaim an office they last won in 1994, though we haven't heard any prominent names mentioned yet. Democrats came close to beating Paxton during the 2018 blue wave when attorney Justin Nelson held the incumbent to a 51-47 victory. Paxton won his third and final term four years later by defeating former ACLU attorney Rochelle Garza by a wider 53-44 margin.

The Downballot Podcast

The Dem pollster who nailed Wisconsin

Liberals won a massive victory in last week's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the public saw precious little polling data that projected a blowout. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is pollster Margie Omero of GBAO, whose internal polling nailed Judge Susan Crawford's 10-point margin. Democrats hedged their bets, though, by modeling two different electorates—one redder and one bluer. Omero tells us why the latter won out, including the role that Elon Musk played in motivating Crawford's supporters.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explain why everyone needs to be prepared for a Senate map that winds up a lot more competitive than it might look on paper. With that backdrop, the Davids dive into a trio of major developments on the Senate front over the last week, including a notable Democrat jumping in in North Carolina; a MAGA favorite challenging a Republican incumbent in Texas; and the GOP's best recruit declining a bid in North Carolina.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

1Q Fundraising

• VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R-inc): $1.16 million raised

Senate

OH-Sen

Sen. Jon Husted received an endorsement from Donald Trump on Wednesday ahead of next year's special election for the Senate term that J.D. Vance won in 2022. Husted has not attracted any serious GOP primary opposition in the three months since Gov. Mike DeWine picked him to replace Vance.

Morning Digest: How the pick to replace Vance in the Senate upends Ohio's race for governor

Governors

FL-Gov

Rep. Byron Donalds publicized endorsements this week from seven members of Florida's GOP House delegation for his campaign to replace termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis. Four others were already backing their colleague, so Donalds now has 11 of his 19 fellow Sunshine State Republican representatives in his corner.

Florida Politics notes that one of Donalds' new supporters is Rep. Laurel Lee, who is a longtime DeSantis ally. The governor himself is no fan of Donalds, and there's still talk that his wife, former TV anchor Casey DeSantis, will challenge the congressman in next year's primary.

Morning Digest: Ron DeSantis uses 'officially nonexistent' clout to tout wife as successor

NY-Gov

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler will decide by July whether to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul or defend his competitive House seat, the Journal News' Chris McKenna reports.

The Democratic firm Data for Progress, meanwhile, finds Hochul taking 51% in next year's primary as two of her potential intraparty challengers, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres, tie for second with 11% each. The results are similar to what Siena College found in its recent poll.

WI-Gov

Rep. Tom Tiffany tells Punchbowl News he'll decide this summer if he'll seek the Republican nomination for governor of Wisconsin. In 2023, Tiffany spent almost half the year flirting with a bid against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, but he ultimately opted to remain in the House.

House

FL-27

Businessman Richard Lamondin tells Florida Politics he's considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in the 27th Congressional District, a seat that has dramatically moved to the right in recent years. Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried this Miami-area constituency 57-42 last year after taking it just 49.9-49.6 in 2020.

Lamondin, who co-founded an environmental services company, says he'll spend "the coming weeks" mulling a bid.

IA-02

State Rep. Lindsay James informs The Gazette's Erin Murphy that she doesn't plan to challenge Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa's 2nd District, while former U.S. Attorney Kevin Techau did not respond to the reporter's inquiries. Inside Elections reported last month that both Democrats were considering taking on Hinson in a constituency that Donald Trump carried 54-44 last year.

IN-07

Democratic strategist George Hornedo announced Wednesday that he would challenge Rep. Andre Carson in next year's primary for the Indianapolis-based 7th District, which is the only safely Democratic House seat in Indiana. Hornedo, who is 34, is one of several Democrats waging intraparty challenges against what he characterizes as the party's "old guard," though at 50, Carson is several years below Congress' median age.

Hornedo, however, says that the congressman's problem is his effectiveness rather than his age. The challenger claimed Carson "is just holding the office and not actually doing anything with it." He also criticized the party's House leadership for not doing enough to combat Donald Trump, telling Punchbowl News last week he'd "love to see a little bit more blood lust" from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Hornedo, who worked for Pete Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign and is a member of the state party's Latino Democratic Caucus, does not appear to have run for office before challenging the veteran incumbent. Carson, who is Black, was first elected in 2008 to replace his late grandmother, Julia Carson. The only time Carson ever faced a serious intra-party race came a few months later during the regular primary for a full term, but he turned aside his closest opponent 47-24.

The incumbent defended his effectiveness as Hornedo began flirting with challenging him, saying, "My office brings millions of dollars directly back to Indianapolis residents in lost or delayed benefits each year." He also said that he's been active in combatting the Trump administration "[w]ith a strategy of legislation, litigation, and activism."

MI-04

Attorney Jessica Swartz said Thursday that she would seek a rematch against Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga in Michigan's 4th District, which is home to Kalamazoo and other communities in the southwestern part of the state. Huizenga defeated Swartz 55-43 last year as Donald Trump carried this constituency 52-46.

Swartz, who raised just over $1 million for that effort, argues things will go differently the second time around. The Democrat tells the Detroit News that "we spent the last two years basically learning how to be a candidate," and that "this time, I have all that under my belt, and we're ready to hit the ground running."

Huizenga, though, might be more interested in seeking a promotion to the upper chamber than in facing Swartz for a ninth term. Politico reported in January that Huizenga was considering a Senate campaign, and Detroit Free Press columnist M.L. Elrick wrote this weekend that the Republican remains interested. Huizenga, Elrick believes, "is almost certainly just waiting to hear who President Donald Trump prefers before making a decision."

MI-10

Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel announced this morning that he's entering the Democratic primary to flip Michigan's 10th District, which Republican Rep. John James is leaving behind to run for governor.

Greimel is a former state representative who served as the chamber's minority leader from 2013 to 2017. Greimel ran for Congress under the last map in 2018 when he pursued what was then numbered the 11th District: He ultimately lost a close five-way primary to Haley Stevens, who went on to win the general election.

Morning Digest: Michigan Republicans get a big candidate for governor, but it's not all good news for GOP

Greimel, who went on to work for the local affiliate of the public employee union AFSCME, returned to elected office in 2021 by decisively winning the mayor's office in Pontiac, a 60,000-person city in the Detroit area.

He announced in January that he would not seek a second term this year in order to "focus on future endeavors," and he was soon mentioned as a prospective candidate for James' seat. Pontiac is still part of Stevens’ 11th District, but Greimel tells the Detroit News he will be "moving back to the [10th] District where I was born and raised well before the election."

Greimel joins Army veteran Alex Hawkins and former prosecutor Christina Hines in the Democratic nomination contest for the 10th District, which includes most of Macomb County. Republicans are waiting for their first candidate to announce a campaign to replace James in this constituency, which favored Donald Trump 52-46 last year.

NH-02, NH-Sen

Businesswoman Lily Tang Williams announced Wednesday that she would wage a third campaign for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District rather than enter the Republican primary for the state's open U.S. Senate seat.

Williams, who twice ran for Congress in Colorado as a Libertarian, lost the 2022 Republican nomination for this House seat in 2022 before securing it in 2024. Williams' general election against Democrat Maggie Goodlander did not attract any serious outside spending, and Goodlander went on to win the open seat 53-47 as Kamala Harris was carrying the 2nd District 51-48.

NY-17

Attorney Mike Sacks, who is a former local TV reporter, said Wednesday that he would compete in the busy Democratic primary for New York's 17th District, which GOP Rep. Mike Lawler might leave behind to run for governor. (See our NY-Gov item above.)

Sacks, however, didn't let this uncertainty deter him from opening his launch video with a clip of the Hudson Valley congressman parodying the Beach Boys song "Kokomo" with a Donald Trump impression. The audience is treated to Lawler joking about Trump's expansionist fantasies on comedian Roy Wood Jr.'s CNN program, with Lawler haltingly saying, "Aruba. Jamaica. Panama, I'm gonna take ya … Bermuda, Bahama, Greenland come home to your momma."

An unimpressed Sacks responds, "That's our congressman, Mike Lawler." The new candidate decries the incumbent for "playing moderate up here while voting MAGA down there, rubber stamping this administration, thinking we won't notice." Sacks, after talking about his journalism career, declares that he's running "to fight for New York and to unf*ck our country."

Three Democrats were already running here: Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, nonprofit head Jessica Reinmann, and former National Security Council official Cait Conley. The 17th District is one of just three GOP-held House seats in the nation to back Kamala Harris last year.

Morning Digest: Democrats land a major name in one of the few 'Harris-Republican' House districts

Mayors & County Leaders

Albuquerque, NM Mayor

Albuquerque City Councilor Louie Sanchez announced Tuesday that he would take on Mayor Tim Keller, a fellow Democrat, in this fall's nonpartisan primary.

While Sanchez and Keller share a party affiliation, the two have long been at odds. Sanchez, who is a former police officer, unseated a Keller appointee in 2021 after campaigning on what the local alt-weekly The Paper characterized as "a conservative platform that was pro-law enforcement, tough on crime and pro-small business."

Sanchez joins a field that already included a few Republicans, including former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. All the candidates will face off on one ballot on Nov. 4, and it takes a majority of the vote to avoid a December runoff.

San Diego County, CA Supervisor

Republican John McCann and Democrat Paloma Aguirre will face off in the July 1 special election Democrats need to hold to restore their 3-2 majority on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.

McCann, who is the mayor of Chula Vista, leads Tuesday's nonpartisan primary with 44% of the vote with 57,000 ballots tabulated as of Wednesday afternoon. (Voice of San Diego says that another 11,000 ballots still need to be counted, so each candidate's percentage could shift.) Among the three Democrats, Aguirre, who leads Imperial Beach, holds a 32-13 advantage over San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno, with 7% going to Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez.

Altogether 52% of voters favor one of the Democrats, while McCann and two minor Republicans secure 46%. The balance goes to Elizabeth Efird, a little-known contender who responded to the San Diego Union-Tribune's question about her party affiliation by saying, "While I respect the values and goals of the Democratic Party, my approach to leadership is driven by the needs of the community."

​​The 1st District, which is based in the southern portion of the county, favored Kamala Harris 67-31, but Tuesday's results underscore how competitive the general election could be. Aguirre began the second round by arguing McCann is part of "a Trump Republican agenda that would be a complete disaster for all of San Diego County." McCann focused on his time leading the county's second-largest city and did not mention national politics.