Morning Digest: How Senate Republicans are trying to kneecap Ken Paxton

They're also hoping to stop two House members from seeking a promotion—one of whom could open up a potentially competitive open seat

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) (credit: Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA 2.0)

TX-Sen, MI-Sen, MI-04

A top official at the Senate GOP's campaign arm told donors interested in next year's races in Texas and Michigan that they should only open their wallets for two candidates: Sen. John Cornyn in the first case and former Rep. Mike Rogers in the second.

The message from the NRSC, reports Axios, was aimed at deterring two members of the House from running for Senate, Bill Huizenga in Michigan and Wesley Hunt in Texas, and was also intended to undermine state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who's already challenging Cornyn.

Paxton is of particular concern to Republicans, since he could put the Lone Star State in play in a way Cornyn might not—and a newly publicized poll shows how.

The mid-April survey, from a firm owned by one of Donald Trump's former campaign managers, finds former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred with a 52-37 lead on Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton—the first public data on such a matchup.

The same poll, first obtained by the Houston Chronicle, also shows Paxton defeating Sen. John Cornyn 50-33 in the GOP primary, similar to what other polling has found. The Chronicle's report did not include any information, however, on how Cornyn might fare against Allred, who has yet to announce a bid.

Brad Parscale, whose firm conducted the research, ran Trump's losing effort in 2020 until he was sacked in July of that year. Two years ago, he was connected to a campaign to pay social media influencers to post in support of Paxton, who had been impeached by the legislature on corruption charges. State regulators later issued rules requiring anyone receiving such payments to disclose them.

It's not clear what Parscale's rationale for polling the race might have been, or whether he wanted the results to become public. On the one hand, the poll is good news for Paxton in the primary, but on the other, it's alarming for the general election—though considerations about electability have often been secondary at best in MAGAworld.

Huizenga could pose a problem of a different sort—as much for the NRSC as for their House counterparts at the NRCC. While Republicans gerrymandered Hunt's Houston-area district to be safely red, Huizenga's seat in southwestern Michigan could be at risk, particularly if it comes open.

According to new calculations from The Downballot, Trump carried the 4th District by a relatively slender 52-46 margin last year. Huizenga won reelection by a much wider 55-43 spread, so Democrats would be delighted to see him move on. They might, however, try to flip his seat no matter what he does: An early target list of 35 GOP-held districts released by the DCCC last month included Huizenga's name.

GOP implosion in Virginia

Senate

GA-Sen

A new poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shows Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in a tight race against Gov. Brian Kemp but with much more comfortable leads against other potential contenders.

The survey, conducted by the University of Georgia, gives Kemp a 49-46 edge on Ossoff, but the governor is the only Republican who keeps it close. Ossoff enjoys a wide 54-37 advantage over Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; a 51-38 lead on state Insurance Commissioner John King; and a 48-39 margin over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

None of these Republicans, however, has entered the race, and Kemp, the GOP's top recruit, has so far resisted all entreaties. Last month, Kemp said, "I don't really have a time frame" for making a decision, even though the legislative session had already ended. The AJC's Greg Bluestein reported at the time that "many of Kemp's closest friends doubt he'll run," though he noted that "some say the odds have ticked up."

Ossoff, however, has been taking full advantage of the cryogenically frozen GOP field: In the first quarter of the year, he raised $11 million, four times as much as the next-closest Senate candidate, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner.

NC-Sen

Democrat Dan McCready, who lost a close special election for the House in 2019, is "[p]oking around" North Carolina's Senate race, says Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin.

McCready, a Marine Corps veteran, came close to flipping the old 9th Congressional District in 2018, but the election was never certified after officials uncovered a wide-ranging conspiracy to rig the race by a consultant working for Republican Mark Harris. Instead, a special election was held the following year, but McCready lost by a 51-49 margin to Republican Dan Bishop.

Former Rep. Wiley Nickel is already seeking the Democratic nod to take on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, though party leaders are still hoping to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper.

NH-Sen

Former Rep. Annie Kuster, who had said she might run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat if Rep. Chris Pappas did not, has now endorsed Pappas in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas appears to be on a glide path to the Democratic nomination, with top party leaders all rallying around him and no other contenders in sight.

Governors

GA-Gov

Former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond, whom we hadn't heard much from since last year, now sounds much more interested in joining the Democratic primary for Georgia's open governorship.

Not long after Election Day, Thurmond would only say that he was "going to leave all options open." And last week, he still seemed uncertain, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that "it's a very narrow path for a Democrat in 2026," leading the paper to rate his likelihood of running as "iffy."

But in new remarks to the National Journal's Mary Frances McGowan, Thurmond said he's been traveling across the Peach State to speak with voters, who are "helping me to better understand how to move the state forward as a candidate for governor."

"I'm very familiar with Georgia and Georgians, and I will bring that knowledge and expertise," he added, sounding like someone very close to declaring a campaign.

So far, just one Democrat, state Sen. Jason Esteves, has joined the race, though several others are considering.

RI-Gov

Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes swamped Gov. Dan McKee in fundraising during the first quarter of the year even though she has yet to launch a campaign, new disclosures show.

In the first three months of the year, Foulkes raised $610,000 and finished with $1.6 million on hand. McKee, meanwhile, brought in just $260,000 and had $750,000 in the bank.

Three years ago, McKee fended off Foulkes by a narrow 33-30 margin in the Democratic primary. It's not clear when Foulkes might announce a second bid, but WPRI's Raymond Baccari characterizes her as an "all-but-announced" candidate.

WI-Gov

Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, who's been considering a bid for governor, has now created a campaign committee and will likely announce a kickoff on Sunday, reports the AP's Scott Bauer. Schoemann would be the first notable Republican to enter the race. Democrats, meanwhile, are waiting to hear from Gov. Tony Evers, who said he'll decide on whether to seek a third term after the state's biennial budget process wraps up, which is typically in July.

House

CO-03

Private equity investor Alex Kelloff, who also founded a ski equipment company, announced he'd run against first-term Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd this week, making him the first Democrat to enter the race for Colorado's 3rd District.

Last year, Hurd defeated Democrat Adam Frisch 51-46 after the district's former representative, Lauren Boebert, fled eastward in pursuit of a safer seat. Hurd ran well behind the top of the ticket, as Donald Trump carried the 3rd District by a 54-44 margin, according to new calculations from The Downballot.

CO-08

Former Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who's running to reclaim her seat in Congress after a close loss last year, "twice appeared to attempt suicide in situations witnessed by staffers," reports the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul.

Aides were so alarmed by her behavior, says Paul, that they proposed a "safety plan" so that they would not have to counsel the congresswoman while in crisis. That proposal, however, was rejected. Instead, staff were told to "either commit to contending with Caraveo's mental health challenges or resign within a day," writes Paul.

Caraveo had discussed her struggles publicly in the runup to her campaign launch last month, but Paul's story, which he says was based on "nearly a year of reporting and conversations with more than 20 people," brings to light the toll she took on her employees.

Caraveo's congressional staff experienced unusually high rates of turnover, notes Paul, and some aides said they sought therapy as a consequence of their mistreatment. Caraveo declined to be interviewed for the story and did not respond to written questions. Instead, she released a statement.

"I was in a dark place when I was suffering from depression and I know the disease led me to treat my friends, family and my staff in ways that I regret," she said. "I'm deeply sorry."

Caraveo lost Colorado's swingy 8th District to Republican Gabe Evans by a 49-48 margin in 2024 while Donald Trump carried the district by a slightly larger 50-48 spread. She joined the race in mid-April, several months after state Rep. Manny Rutinel had already entered the Democratic primary. At least half a dozen other Democrats are also weighing campaigns.

MN-02

Democrat Dan Feehan, a former Defense Department official who lost two close races in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, is considering a bid for the open 2nd District, says Cook Political Report's Erin Covey.

In 2018, when then-Rep. Tim Walz ran for governor, Feehan sought to succeed him but fell just short against Republican Jim Hagedorn, who beat him by a 50.1 to 49.7 margin. Two years later, the two met again, with Hagedorn prevailing by a slightly larger 49-46 spread.

The two districts in question, however, share little in common. The 1st is a heavily rural area that sprawls across Minnesota's entire southern border with Iowa, though it also includes Rochester—the third-largest city in the state and home to the Mayo Clinic. The neighboring 2nd, by contrast, is largely suburban turf south of the Twin Cities.

NE-02

Businesswoman Denise Powell, the founder of an organization aimed at helping women candidates, launched a bid against Republican Rep. Don Bacon on Thursday.

Powell has not sought public office before but has been involved in politics through her PAC, Women Who Run. It's not clear, though, whether she'll have the chance to face Bacon, since the congressman recently acknowledged that he is considering retirement.

Other Democrats are also eyeing the race for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, which is the bluest House seat in the nation held by a Republican. And should Bacon call it quits, there will likely be great interest among Republicans who'd like to succeed him.

NJ-01

Democratic Rep. Donald Norcross, who'd been in the hospital for several weeks due to an infection, has been released, according to a statement from his office. There's no word, however, on when the 66-year-old Norcross, who spent time in the intensive care unit, might return to work.

PA-07

Former congressional aide Carol Obando-Derstine joined the race for Pennsylvania's swingy 7th District on Thursday with an endorsement from the last Democrat to hold the seat, former Rep. Susan Wild.

Wild had been talked up for a potential rematch after her close loss last year to Republican Ryan Mackenzie but said last month that she'd instead support a different candidate that she wasn't yet ready to name.

Obando-Derstine, who was born in Colombia, served as Latino affairs advisor to former Sen. Bob Casey a decade ago, then worked at a local utility company as an engineer. Before she can take on Mackenzie, though, she must first contend with a contested Democratic primary against Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, who launched a bid at the end of February.

As it was last year, the Lehigh Valley-based 7th District is sure to be an expensive battleground. Donald Trump carried the district by a 51-48 margin while Mackenzie unseated Wild by just a single percentage point, 50.5 to 49.5.

PA-08

Former Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who's been considering a comeback bid after his narrow loss last year, is "not a done deal" to face off against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan again, reports Axios, but he's "targeting an early May announcement if he runs."

Mayors & County Leaders

San Antonio, TX Mayor

A whopping 27 candidates are competing in Saturday's officially nonpartisan race to succeed San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, an independent-turned-Democrat who is termed out of office.

The sheer number of choices means it's all but certain that no one will earn the majority necessary to avert a June 7 runoff. However, no one's sure who they'll be or what party they'll hail from.

Four candidates have far outspent the rest of the field. Three of them are Democrats: Councilman Manny Pelaez, who has been self-funding much of his campaign; former Biden administration official Gina Ortiz Jones, who lost a pair of competitive races for the 23rd Congressional District in 2018 and 2020; and Beto Altamirano, whom the San Antonio Report last year described as "a longtime Democratic staffer who now owns a technology company."

On the Republican side, the lone standout remains Rolando Pablos, who served as Texas' secretary of state (an appointed post) from 2017 to 2018. Pablos has unsurprisingly downplayed his party affiliation in a city where, according to the San Antonio Express-News, Donald Trump won just 40% of the vote last year. The Bexar County Democratic Party, though, has sought to connect Pablos to GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who appointed him.

The field also includes three other Democratic members of the city council: Melissa Cabello Havrda, John Courage, and Adriana Rocha Garcia. Former City Councilman Clayton Perry, finally, is a rare notable Republican. This group, though, has struggled to compete financially.

An early April poll from the University of Texas at San Antonio found Ortiz Jones taking 13%, which made her the only contender to hit double-digit support. Courage and Altamirano were tied for second with 7% apiece, while everyone else took 5% or less.