I'd love to imagine Abbott getting what he dreamed of -- the private school voucher scam into law -- but then he loses re-election because of angry rural and suburban parents.
I just wish the voters would FINALLY tire of this guy. At the end of his fourth term he will have been in charge of Texas nearly as long as Pinochet was in power in Chile.
That's true, but since then, he blew a lot of his cachet on a quixotic POTUS run (and the gubernatorial runтАФalways likely to fail in a Democratic midtermтАФdidn't do him any favors either).
In 2020, the White House was an open seat, and the Democratic primary attracted more than two dozen candidates. It was not inevitable, or even likely, until the end, that Joe Biden would emerge victorious. If Beto had won or even ended up being the loser chosen as vice president, we would be in a very different position today. John Hickenlooper was not disqualified from running for the Senate because he, too, was one of the losing candidates in the Democratic presidential primaries.
Are the reports of Colin Allred polling with a two-digit lead over Paxton credible? Should Allred run again? Is he our best shot? (IтАЩm wary of Beto, fear he may be used up.)
Texas has always shifted blue each election even in midterms since Dubya ran for President, one election doesn't mean the trend will reverse. Did you guys see Trump's negative approval in Texas and his polling with Latinos now?
Even 2022 Gubernatorial election results were closer than the 2018 one.
Seems highly unlikely. Most pollsters sucked in figuring out Texas in 2020 and 2024 and I suspect they're still way off. But even if we assume the poll is 10 points off, it's still a good number.
I dunno...I think our chances in Texas really come down to whether or not Tejanos have really left the Democratic party or if they just liked Trump (for some inexplicable reason). If they come back home (or even mostly do), we could actually have a shot in a Trump midterm. I've long been a Texas skeptic, but if the demographic breakdowns return to what we're used to, this could actually be doable...
Right. Any scenario where Allred was competitive meant that the Tejanos had already "come back home" to the Democratic side. A Democratic win. let alone a double-digit landslide, would require more than getting back to 2018 numbers with Tejanos.
I mean...a double digit landslide is silliness - no one really expects that. What seems possible is recreating Beto's 2018 coalition with a slightly lower Tejano vote share, a higher college white vote share and a slightly more beneficial midterm electorate mix. Someone should run the math, but it seems like that could be enough to overcome Beto's 3 point loss....
I mean, it's crazy that the co-founder of Code Pink, Medea Benjamin, was cheering Trump when he went after Jeb Bush. She was the same persistent protestor in Congress against the Iraq War and in front of President Obama during his time over the wars.
True although Democrats really have nothing to lose here by bringing it up in the narrative of government overspending and the debt (the Iraq War as well as Afghanistan War blew up the debt). Cornyn did nothing to stop this debt is what the Democratic Senate Candidate can argue, not just the bankrolling the wars. It's so obvious.
Cornyn can still be tied to the dysfunctional system the GOP makes Congress as although it depends on how the Democratic Senate campaign sells this message.
To your point on the last sentence, yes, I agree that making the argument on balanced budgets is not the most productive way to win elections in this environment. Democrats can worry about balancing the budget when they have power. The Democratic Party agenda is bigger than this.
I was just pointing out the hypocrisy side of Cornyn as a rhetorical argument.
(She also ran much more standard, black-and-white attack ads against Akin's main rivals, John Brunner and Sarah Steelman; sadly, those ads don't seem to be available online anymore.)
Don't listen to Cornyn, TX Republicans! Listen to Trump and elect Paxton!
This TX Senate race is going to be a hoot if Paxton unseats Cornyn.
Yep, we have absolutely nothing to lose here.
Best case scenario: Paxton loses to his Democratic opponent.
Worst case scenario: Paxton wins and votes the same way Cornyn would.
Does anyone think having Paxton on the ticket with Abbott will drag down Abbott or will there be ticket splitters?
There will be ticket splitters.
If only reverse coattails were a thing. SighтАж
I'd love to imagine Abbott getting what he dreamed of -- the private school voucher scam into law -- but then he loses re-election because of angry rural and suburban parents.
I just wish the voters would FINALLY tire of this guy. At the end of his fourth term he will have been in charge of Texas nearly as long as Pinochet was in power in Chile.
Hopefully Texas MAGA will up their game тАУ Mothers Against Greg Abbott!
https://mothersagainstgregabbott.com/
The Democratic opponent could be Beto O'Rourke, who says he is thinking about entering the race.
Nope he won't be, the primary is going to be crowded with Allred, Nirenberg, Nathan Johnson and Astronaut Virts.
No thanks. I like the guy, but we have other options (and heтАФlike Stacey Abrams in GeorgiaтАФseems better-suited to organizational roles).
I would not dismiss him peremptorily. He has come closer to winning a Senate seat from Texas than any other Democrat since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
That's true, but since then, he blew a lot of his cachet on a quixotic POTUS run (and the gubernatorial runтАФalways likely to fail in a Democratic midtermтАФdidn't do him any favors either).
If he hadn't run for governor, he would have been dismissed as a has-been who let his party down in a time of need.
No one would have blamed him for not taking on a campaign that was likely doomed from the start.
But heтАЩd already damaged himself by running for POTUS.
In 2020, the White House was an open seat, and the Democratic primary attracted more than two dozen candidates. It was not inevitable, or even likely, until the end, that Joe Biden would emerge victorious. If Beto had won or even ended up being the loser chosen as vice president, we would be in a very different position today. John Hickenlooper was not disqualified from running for the Senate because he, too, was one of the losing candidates in the Democratic presidential primaries.
Are the reports of Colin Allred polling with a two-digit lead over Paxton credible? Should Allred run again? Is he our best shot? (IтАЩm wary of Beto, fear he may be used up.)
For me, it sounds too good to be true. But then again, Ken Paxton is Mark Robinson-levels of toxic.
Texas has always shifted blue each election even in midterms since Dubya ran for President, one election doesn't mean the trend will reverse. Did you guys see Trump's negative approval in Texas and his polling with Latinos now?
Even 2022 Gubernatorial election results were closer than the 2018 one.
https://www.270towin.com/states/texas
Seems highly unlikely. Most pollsters sucked in figuring out Texas in 2020 and 2024 and I suspect they're still way off. But even if we assume the poll is 10 points off, it's still a good number.
I dunno...I think our chances in Texas really come down to whether or not Tejanos have really left the Democratic party or if they just liked Trump (for some inexplicable reason). If they come back home (or even mostly do), we could actually have a shot in a Trump midterm. I've long been a Texas skeptic, but if the demographic breakdowns return to what we're used to, this could actually be doable...
Right. Any scenario where Allred was competitive meant that the Tejanos had already "come back home" to the Democratic side. A Democratic win. let alone a double-digit landslide, would require more than getting back to 2018 numbers with Tejanos.
I mean...a double digit landslide is silliness - no one really expects that. What seems possible is recreating Beto's 2018 coalition with a slightly lower Tejano vote share, a higher college white vote share and a slightly more beneficial midterm electorate mix. Someone should run the math, but it seems like that could be enough to overcome Beto's 3 point loss....
There are more naturalised Tejanos in Texas today than 2018 and the cities have grown with snowbirds since then.
Hoffman, Soros, Gates, Jamie should fund this guy Paxton through their dark money groups just like they did for Kari Lake in the 2022 primary.
I am still mystified as to why all of the Democratic challengers to John Cornyn in previous Senate races don't bring up his pro-Iraq War votes.
If I were any of them, I'd give Cornyn the same treatment that Trump gave Jeb Bush over Dubya.
Probably the one thing I ever agreed with Trump on.
I mean, it's crazy that the co-founder of Code Pink, Medea Benjamin, was cheering Trump when he went after Jeb Bush. She was the same persistent protestor in Congress against the Iraq War and in front of President Obama during his time over the wars.
Sadly, that's an old issue for Americans now and very unlikely to garner any appreciable number of votes.
True although Democrats really have nothing to lose here by bringing it up in the narrative of government overspending and the debt (the Iraq War as well as Afghanistan War blew up the debt). Cornyn did nothing to stop this debt is what the Democratic Senate Candidate can argue, not just the bankrolling the wars. It's so obvious.
Cornyn can still be tied to the dysfunctional system the GOP makes Congress as although it depends on how the Democratic Senate campaign sells this message.
Nobody really cares about overspending or the debt.
If the GOP wants to claim they care, we use their arguments against them.
That would be getting sidetracked. Democrats should not campaign on balanced budgets, etc.
To your point on the last sentence, yes, I agree that making the argument on balanced budgets is not the most productive way to win elections in this environment. Democrats can worry about balancing the budget when they have power. The Democratic Party agenda is bigger than this.
I was just pointing out the hypocrisy side of Cornyn as a rhetorical argument.
That wouldn't fly with Texas Republicans the way it would in a national primary.
Well, either way, Democrats should have a better strategy than having to wait for Ken Paxton to primary John Cornyn out of office.
Democratic groups should secretly intervene and label Paxton "too conservative for Texas" and call him "Ted Cruz's political twin"!!
"Texas's TRUE conservative is just TOO conservative."
(Apologies to Claire McCaskill)
I didn't get the reference?
Claire McCaskill wanted Todd Akin to be her opponent in 2012, so she ran this "attack" ad before the Republican primary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec4t_3vaBMc&list=UUh-9jmww2oKE-ObzNmZ4m3w&index=2
(She also ran much more standard, black-and-white attack ads against Akin's main rivals, John Brunner and Sarah Steelman; sadly, those ads don't seem to be available online anymore.)