Are the reports of Colin Allred polling with a two-digit lead over Paxton credible? Should Allred run again? Is he our best shot? (I’m wary of Beto, fear he may be used up.)
Are the reports of Colin Allred polling with a two-digit lead over Paxton credible? Should Allred run again? Is he our best shot? (I’m wary of Beto, fear he may be used up.)
Texas has always shifted blue each election even in midterms since Dubya ran for President, one election doesn't mean the trend will reverse. Did you guys see Trump's negative approval in Texas and his polling with Latinos now?
Even 2022 Gubernatorial election results were closer than the 2018 one.
Seems highly unlikely. Most pollsters sucked in figuring out Texas in 2020 and 2024 and I suspect they're still way off. But even if we assume the poll is 10 points off, it's still a good number.
I dunno...I think our chances in Texas really come down to whether or not Tejanos have really left the Democratic party or if they just liked Trump (for some inexplicable reason). If they come back home (or even mostly do), we could actually have a shot in a Trump midterm. I've long been a Texas skeptic, but if the demographic breakdowns return to what we're used to, this could actually be doable...
Right. Any scenario where Allred was competitive meant that the Tejanos had already "come back home" to the Democratic side. A Democratic win. let alone a double-digit landslide, would require more than getting back to 2018 numbers with Tejanos.
I mean...a double digit landslide is silliness - no one really expects that. What seems possible is recreating Beto's 2018 coalition with a slightly lower Tejano vote share, a higher college white vote share and a slightly more beneficial midterm electorate mix. Someone should run the math, but it seems like that could be enough to overcome Beto's 3 point loss....
Are the reports of Colin Allred polling with a two-digit lead over Paxton credible? Should Allred run again? Is he our best shot? (I’m wary of Beto, fear he may be used up.)
For me, it sounds too good to be true. But then again, Ken Paxton is Mark Robinson-levels of toxic.
Texas has always shifted blue each election even in midterms since Dubya ran for President, one election doesn't mean the trend will reverse. Did you guys see Trump's negative approval in Texas and his polling with Latinos now?
Even 2022 Gubernatorial election results were closer than the 2018 one.
https://www.270towin.com/states/texas
Seems highly unlikely. Most pollsters sucked in figuring out Texas in 2020 and 2024 and I suspect they're still way off. But even if we assume the poll is 10 points off, it's still a good number.
I dunno...I think our chances in Texas really come down to whether or not Tejanos have really left the Democratic party or if they just liked Trump (for some inexplicable reason). If they come back home (or even mostly do), we could actually have a shot in a Trump midterm. I've long been a Texas skeptic, but if the demographic breakdowns return to what we're used to, this could actually be doable...
Right. Any scenario where Allred was competitive meant that the Tejanos had already "come back home" to the Democratic side. A Democratic win. let alone a double-digit landslide, would require more than getting back to 2018 numbers with Tejanos.
I mean...a double digit landslide is silliness - no one really expects that. What seems possible is recreating Beto's 2018 coalition with a slightly lower Tejano vote share, a higher college white vote share and a slightly more beneficial midterm electorate mix. Someone should run the math, but it seems like that could be enough to overcome Beto's 3 point loss....
There are more naturalised Tejanos in Texas today than 2018 and the cities have grown with snowbirds since then.