Arizona Democrat Amish Shah (credit: Amish Shah Facebook)
Leading Off
AZ-01
Former state Rep. Amish Shah announced Tuesday that he would seek a rematch against Republican Rep. David Schweikert, who defeated him 52-48 in last year's general election for Arizona's 1st District.
This constituency, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, is one of the swingiest in the nation. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump won it by just a 51-48 margin, four years after Joe Biden carried it by an even more slender 50-49 spread.
A message from our sponsor, Campaign Hub:
Tools to Win. A Community That Has Your Back.
Campaign Hub is your go-to platform with trusted tools, expert guidance, and a community of support to help you run a successful campaign. Here’s a snapshot of what’s inside:
Pro Insights – Expert articles with real-world strategies
Action Sheets – Simple, step-by-step guides to help you execute quickly
Guides – In-depth resources on everything from field operations to fundraising
Hub Manuals – Comprehensive eBooks that break down big-picture strategy
Vendor Partners – Vetted tools and professionals you can trust
Conversations – Community forums for shared knowledge and advice
But that's not the only reason why the district will be a key battleground. Our data also shows that exactly half of all House seats in the country voted to the right of the 1st District in the 2024 presidential election, while the other half voted to the left. That puts Schweikert's constituency in the dead center and gives it the unique distinction of being the nation's median House district.
However, before he can focus on Schweikert, Shah, who would be the first Indian American to represent Arizona in Congress, will need to go through a competitive Democratic primary.
Former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who took a close third place against Shah in last year's nomination contest, launched her second campaign back in March, while businessman Jonathan Treble began running the next month. Several other Democrats are publicly or privately considering running as well.
Shah, an emergency room physician, narrowly won the packed 2024 primary by beating businessman Andrei Cherny 23.5-21.3, while Galan-Woods was just behind with 21.2%. The general election soon became one of the most expensive House races in the nation, with the four largest outside groups dumping a combined $23 million into the race.
Schweikert earned unflattering headlines late in the campaign when the Huffington Post reported that he'd told a conservative radio host two years earlier that women who had abortions "hate the country" and "hate that baby." The story wasn't enough, though, to cost the congressman an eighth term on what proved to be a tough night for Democrats nationwide.
Shah launched his second campaign for office by touting his record supporting reproductive rights in the legislature, including his work to ensure access to medication abortions. He also attacked Schweikert's allegiance to Trump and his tariffs in an interview with the Arizona Republic.
"I see a country that is in chaos," Shah told the paper. "I don't think this is what people voted for."
The fight against autocracy is a multi-front battle—and that includes the ballot box. The Downballot arms you with the information you need to be an effective warrior. Please support our mission to shine a spotlight on critical but undercovered elections that will help determine the fate of our democracy by becoming a paid subscriber.
Ewing, who will be Omaha's first Black mayor, overcame a large fundraising disadvantage in his campaign to deny Stothert what would have been an unprecedented fourth term.
We sent a breaking news alert on Tuesday night updating subscribers about Ewing's victory, explaining how he ousted the three-term incumbent—and why it's good news for Democrats hoping to flip Omaha's seat in Congress. Click here for our complete recap.
Governors
IA-Gov
Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra announced Tuesday that he had formed an exploratory committee for a possible campaign for governor of Iowa, though he signaled that he'd already decided to run.
"As Governor, I will stand with President Trump," Feenstra said in a press release, and his social media pages already identify him as a candidate. The office he's seeking is held by GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds, who unexpectedly announced last month that she would retire rather than seek a third full term.
Feenstra, who was first elected to the state Senate in 2008, rose to national prominence in 2020 when he challenged nine-term Rep. Steve King for renomination in the dark-red 4th Congressional District in western Iowa.
King had been one of the most powerful Republicans in the state during his long tenure, especially in the lead-up to the Hawkeye State's quadrennial presidential caucuses, and his fellow Republicans had long tolerated his racist rhetoric and associations with white supremacist groups.
However, that began to change after King's behavior almost cost the GOP control of what should have been a safe seat in 2018, when he held off Democrat J.D. Scholten by just a 50-47 margin.
The next year, just days after Feenstra launched his campaign, King asked a New York Times reporter, "White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization—how did that language become offensive?" Congressional GOP leaders, perhaps sensing that he was much more of a liability than an asset, finally punished King by stripping him of his committee assignments, including his spot on the House Agriculture Committee.
Feenstra and his allies, including the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce, made their case that King was now ineffective and unable to help Donald Trump without his committee posts. Feenstra, campaigning as an ardent conservative who wouldn't be an embarrassment, prevailed 46-36 and had no trouble holding the 4th. (Whether King would have met a similar fate today is up for debate.)
Feenstra is one of several Republicans looking to replace Reynolds in the governor's office. The eventual nominee is likely to face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand, who announced his campaign on Monday.
KS-Gov
Former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer all but confirmed on Monday that he would run to reclaim the job he held for just under a year, though he still didn't quite announce he was entering the Republican primary.
Colyer instead said he had brought on state Rep. Kyle Hoffman to chair his planned campaign and "carry our winning message to every county in Kansas." Hoffman, for his part, predicted the undeclared candidate would "make a great governor." Colyer is hoping to replace Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who cannot seek a third term next year.
Colyer, a state lawmaker from the Kansas City area who became wealthy as a plastic surgeon, was elected lieutenant governor in both 2010 and 2014 on a ticket with Sam Brownback. He was elevated to the top job in early 2018 when the extremely unpopular Brownback resigned to take a Trump administration post, but he faced a difficult primary to remain in office.
The new governor ultimately lost the seven-person nomination contest to Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who had Donald Trump's endorsement, 40.6 to 40.5—a margin of just 343 votes. Colyer then watched from the sidelines as Kelly scored an upset victory over Kobach in the general election to lead this conservative state.
When Colyer launched a comeback bid in 2021, Republicans were prepared for a yet another acrimonious primary, this time between him and Attorney General Derek Schmidt. The former governor, though, unexpectedly announced a few months later that he was dropping out due to a recent diagnosis of prostate cancer. Kelly went on to narrowly hold off Schmidt to win her second and final term.
Colyer, who chaired Trump's 2024 campaign in Kansas, is one of several Republicans who want to claim this open governorship. The field already consists of Secretary of State Scott Schwab, former Johnson County Commissioner Charlotte O'Hara, and conservative podcaster Doug Billings.
The Kansas City Star writes that state Senate President Ty Masterson and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt are both "widely expected to run," while other Republicans are also considering entering the race. Democrats have yet to land a candidate, though several notable names could run.
House
AZ-07
EMILYs List has endorsed former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva ahead of the July 15 Democratic primary in Arizona's 7th District, a vacant seat that will be filled in a special election in September.
Grijalva, the daughter of the late Rep. Raul Grijalva, appears to be the frontrunner. She publicized an internal poll last month giving her a huge lead over former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, and no one has released contrary data.
FL-27
Former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey announced on Tuesday that he'd run against Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida's 27th District, making him the first notable Democrat to enter the race.
He could have company soon, though: Businessman Richard Lamondin previously said he was considering a bid and just filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible campaign.
Davey launched his campaign by blasting Salazar for enabling Donald Trump.
"Under the Trump administration and with Congresswoman Salazar's help, we are witnessing a full-blown assault on the very values that define us as a nation," he said in a statement. "Families are torn apart by heartless deportations and law-abiding residents are swept up in a brutal and unjust system."
For Davey, it will be his second time seeking to challenge Salazar after losing last year's primary to Lucia Baez-Geller by a 54-46 margin. Baez-Geller, however, went down to a 60-40 defeat at the incumbent's hands in November.
While the Miami-based 27th District was competitive turf not that long ago, Democrats have suffered badly there in recent years as their support among Latino voters has cratered. According to new calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the district by a 57-42 margin last year, a huge jump from 2020, when he won the 27th by less than one point.
IL-02
State Sen. Robert Peters on Tuesday became the first prominent candidate to announce a campaign to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly, a fellow Democrat who is giving up the safely blue 2nd District to run for the Senate. Peters, who is both Black and Jewish, would be the first member of Congress to identify this way.
Peters worked as a community organizer before he joined the state Senate in 2019, and he holds the same seat that another local community organizer-turned-politician once held. Party leaders selected Peters to fill the seat that Kwame Raoul gave up to become attorney general; Raoul had been chosen through the same process in 2004 after a Chicagoan named Barack Obama won a promotion from the state Senate to the U.S. Senate.
Businesswoman Sanjyot Dunung announced Tuesday that she was entering the Democratic primary for Illinois' open 8th District, a blue-tilting seat north of Chicago.
Dunung, who is the daughter of immigrants from India, is the founder and head of an education company that the business magazine Fast Company recently featured on its list of "Most Innovative Companies." Dunung also has served on the board of directors for the National Small Business Association.
Dunung launched her campaign one day after Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison became the first prominent candidate to join the contest to replace Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a fellow Democrat who is running for the Senate.
Morrison began his campaign with an endorsement from Rep. Eric Sorensen, who represents the 17th District in western Illinois. Sorensen's 2022 victory made him the first openly gay person to represent the state in Congress, while Morrison would be the second.
ME-02
State Auditor Matt Dunlap said Tuesday that he was interested in seeking the Democratic nomination for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, and he didn't rule out challenging Rep. Jared Golden in a primary.
"Jared has nothing to do with it," Dunlap informed WCSH. "I think there's a lot of frustration in the country right now." He separately told WMTW, "I'm scratching my head not just about what Jared Golden is doing but what Congress is doing." Golden has suggested he might run for governor or Senate rather than seeking reelection.
Golden narrowly won his fourth term last year as Donald Trump was carrying his northern Maine constituency 54-44, but not everyone in his party is happy he's still in office. The congressman was one of the few prominent Democrats who advocated for Trump's massive tariffs last month, telling Axios, "My biggest worry is that they're going to do this and lose faith and political will and back away."
Dunlap, who was elected to his current post by state lawmakers in 2020, argued he could win the 2nd District despite its challenging political lean. He told WCSH, "The 2nd Congressional District is not a hostile wilderness. It's people who are my friends, my neighbors, I know them."
MI-11
Former Republican Rep. Dave Trott says he's interested in running to reclaim his old seat in the House—but he won't do so under his old party label.
Trott told the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke he could instead campaign as a Democrat or independent in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who is giving up Michigan's 11th District to run for the Senate. This constituency, which is based in Detroit's northwestern suburbs, supported Kamala Harris 57-41.
Trott, who made his fortune as a foreclosure attorney, won the previous version of this district in 2014, back when it was still conservative turf. Trott scored a decisive primary victory over freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, a Santa Claus-for-hire who had won two years earlier in what remains one of the strangest accidents in American political history, then prevailed easily in the general election.
But Trott unexpectedly decided not to seek a third term in 2018 at a time when Donald Trump's unpopularity was turning reliably red suburban seats like the 11th into battlegrounds, and Stevens won the race to replace him. (Redistricting later made it much bluer.)
Trott himself was one of those suburbanites repelled by Trump: He endorsed Joe Biden in 2020, and he was part of last year's "Michigan Republicans for Harris-Walz" effort. Burke says that Trott currently divides his time between Florida and his home state, where he owns several businesses.
The item below has a wild twist at the end—and it’s one that we promise you wasn’t included in write-ups at other outlets. Why? Because The Downballot digs deepest to bring you the most comprehensive coverage of House races you’ll find anywhere. If you appreciate our fanatic thoroughness, please consider becoming a paid subscriber today!
Conservative radio host Eddy Aragon this week became the first Republican to announce a campaign against Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico's 2nd District.
Donald Trump scored a small 50-48 victory in this constituency, which is based in the southern part of the state and the western Albuquerque area, while Vasquez won his second term 52-48 last year.
Aragon is a longtime presence on Albuquerque's airwaves, but he's had a tough time breaking into politics, whether among party leaders or at the ballot box.
In 2020, Aragon lost a bid for state party chair to incumbent Steve Pearce, and party leaders passed him over months later when it was time to pick a nominee for the special election for the 1st District. He ran for mayor of Albuquerque later in 2021, but he took a distant third place in the officially nonpartisan race.
During that campaign, Aragon implored voters to "elect Albuquerque's first Black mayor and make Albuquerque great again," though there was one problem with his slogan: Aragon isn't Black.
When asked by KOAT if he would in fact regard himself as the city's first African American leader, he replied, "As part of my history? I don't know. It depends upon whether the community would consider me that."
Aragon's explanation? He said an ancestry test had revealed he was "4.6% Black," which he said was "double the percentage of Black people in Albuquerque." According to Census Bureau data for 2021, 5% of city residents identified as Black.
NY-22
Former Assemblyman John Salka announced late last month that he'd seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. John Mannion in New York's 22nd District, though his launch generated little media coverage.
Salka, who left the legislature in 2022 following redistricting, soon became a congressional aide for GOP Rep. Brandon Williams. Mannion unseated Williams 55-45 last year as Kamala Harris was carrying this Syracuse-based seat 54-46.
Attorneys General
MI-AG
One new Democratic candidate has entered the race to be Michigan's next attorney general while another could hop in soon.
Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit kicked off a bid on Tuesday, joining former U.S. Attorney Mark Totten in the contest to succeed Democratic incumbent Dana Nessel, who cannot run again due to term limits. Meanwhile, Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald, who'd been mentioned as a possible contender, confirmed she's looking at the race and filed paperwork to create a campaign committee late last month.
Savit and Totten—and anyone else who gets in—won't face off in a primary. Rather, the nomination will be decided at a party convention next year. Some 6,700 Democrats participated in 2018 when Nessel was acclaimed the nominee after her top rival dropped out and threw his support behind her.
VA-AG
Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor launched her first TV ad on Tuesday, which came a week after former Del. Jay Jones began airing commercials ahead of their June 17 Democratic primary contest. The winner will face Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares in the fall.
Taylor uses her opening message to pledge to "beat back Musk and Trump," which is similar to Jones' opening pitch. Taylor touts herself as "the only Democrat to have prosecuted a criminal case," though she doesn't directly mention her primary rival.
Mayors & County Leaders
Seattle, WA Mayor
Businessman Joe Mallahan unexpectedly announced Thursday that he would challenge Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell, a development that came just a day before candidate filing closed for this year's election.
Mallahan, a former executive for the communications giant T-Mobile, is waging his first campaign since 2009, when he fell just short of winning the mayor's office. Mallahan was one of seven candidates who challenged Mayor Greg Nickels, a fellow Democrat who wanted a third term despite voter unhappiness with his tenure, in the officially nonpartisan top-two primary.
It was still a surprise, though, when environmentalist Mike McGinn and Mallahan claimed the two spots in the general election while Nickels was consigned to third place. McGinn ended up outpacing Mallahan 51-48 before losing to Democrat Ed Murray four years later.
Harrell, who is seeking to become the first Seattle mayor to win reelection since Nickels did so in 2005, faces six other opponents in the Aug. 5 primary, which will send the two contenders with the most votes to the Nov. 4 general election. However, Harrell's only other notable foe appears to be Katie Wilson, a progressive organizer who launched her campaign in March.
The incumbent has worked to unite business and labor groups, which often support opposing contenders in local elections, behind his campaign. Harrell, a Democrat, was elected in 2021 as the pro-business candidate, but he's earned the support of labor organizations for his reelection. The mayor also enjoys the backing of Rep. Pramila Jayapal, a nationally prominent progressive who had clashed with him in the past.
Harrell, though, attracted unwelcome headlines in March when Monisha Harrell, who is both his niece and a former mayoral staffer, accused him of presiding over an administration where she and other women and people of color were ignored or the target of demeaning nicknames.
A spokesperson for Harrell, who is both Black and Asian American, denied the allegations and said he was "particularly sensitive to bullying and stereotypes given his own personal experiences as a biracial man."
Mallahan, though, called attention to the scandal in his launch, charging that "sexual harassment and marginalization of women at City Hall has seemed to become pervasive in Bruce Harrell's administration."
Obituaries
Kit Bond
Republican Kit Bond, a former governor and senator who spent decades as one of Missouri's most influential politicians when the state was still a national bellwether, died Tuesday at the age of 86.
Bond easily won a promotion from state auditor to governor in 1972, but he narrowly lost reelection four years later to Democrat Joseph Teasdale. Bond, however, wrested his old job back from Teasdale in 1980, and his victorious Senate campaign in 1986 gave Republicans their only pickup on a night that saw them lose control of the chamber.
Bond retired ahead of the 2010 elections as Missouri was still at the start of its sharp swing to the right. The Kansas City Star's Eric Adler has much more on Bond's long career in his obituary.
The survey of Jewish registered voters, conducted by the polling firm GBAO Strategies, found that 52 percent of respondents say the word “antisemitic” describes the president very or somewhat well.
In addition, 74 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 26 percent approve. Close to 70 percent said the words “fascist” and “racist” describe him very or somewhat well.
WaPo: Democrats pull off an upset in Nebraska, electing Omaha’s first Black mayor
Voters denied Republican Mayor Jean Stothert a fourth term in a race overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s agenda in Washington — the latest test of attitudes in a political battleground.
Her endorsement of Trump and focus on trans issues along with Ken Martin's increased investment in red states and Blue Dot organisations seem to have helped a lot. I think Nebraska Dem chair Jane Kleeb has been smart by first tacitly supporting Dan Osborn and not dividing the non republican vote in 2024 and now this.
The survey of Jewish registered voters, conducted by the polling firm GBAO Strategies, found that 52 percent of respondents say the word “antisemitic” describes the president very or somewhat well.
In addition, 74 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 26 percent approve. Close to 70 percent said the words “fascist” and “racist” describe him very or somewhat well.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/half-of-american-jewish-voters-believe-trump-is-antisemitic-poll-finds/
https://archive.ph/hbTRD
WaPo: Democrats pull off an upset in Nebraska, electing Omaha’s first Black mayor
Voters denied Republican Mayor Jean Stothert a fourth term in a race overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s agenda in Washington — the latest test of attitudes in a political battleground.
Her endorsement of Trump and focus on trans issues along with Ken Martin's increased investment in red states and Blue Dot organisations seem to have helped a lot. I think Nebraska Dem chair Jane Kleeb has been smart by first tacitly supporting Dan Osborn and not dividing the non republican vote in 2024 and now this.