Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Democrats land first major candidate in Arizona's swingiest district

After three tight elections, will this Republican's number finally be up?

Former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods (left), Democratic candidate for Congress in Arizona (credit: Marlene Galan-Woods campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

AZ-01

Former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods announced on Tuesday that she'd once again seek to challenge Republican Rep. David Schweikert, giving Democrats their first major candidate for Arizona's swingy 1st District.

Galan-Woods, who is Cuban American, would be the first Latina to represent the Grand Canyon State in Congress. She launched her campaign with the support of former Gov. Janet Napolitano and state Attorney General Kris Mayes, who occupies the post her late husband, Grant Woods, once held.

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Galan-Woods sought the Democratic nomination last year but fell just short, finishing a close third in the primary. The nod instead went to former state Rep. Amish Shah, who won with 23.5% of the vote; in second was businessman Andrei Cherny with 21.3%, while Galan-Woods was just behind with 21.2%.

But Galan-Woods faced opposition in that race from an unusual quarter: the GOP. While Democrats have frequently intervened in Republican primaries in recent years to boost weaker candidates, the reverse has been less common.

However, in the leadup to the Democratic primary, a mystery group tied to a former treasurer for George Santos began airing ads attacking Galan-Woods as a "political opportunist" who "used to be anti-choice."

Galan-Woods described herself as a "moderate" not long before launching her campaign and had been a Republican until switching parties in the Trump era—much like her husband, who had twice been elected state attorney general under the GOP line in the 1990s but endorsed both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden for president before his death in 2021.

It was never clear how much Galan-Woods' detractors spent, because the group—with the misleading name "Turn AZ Blue"—never filed legally required reports with the FEC. But given the close results in the primary, it could have been the difference-maker.

The outcome in the general election was also tight, as has been the case for years in the 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale. Schweikert emerged with a 52-48 win over Shah, similar to his narrow escapes in both 2020 and 2022.

Democrats will make the 1st a top target again next year, and both parties have good reason to expect another competitive race: According to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the district by a close 51-48 margin.

Democrats could also have another contested primary. According to reports, Shah plans to run again, while Army veteran Jimmy McCain, the son of the late Sen. John McCain, is considering a bid.

Dems who don't stand up to Trump could face an insurgency

Senate

IA-Sen

ProPublica reported on Tuesday that Republican Sen. Joni Ernst had an "inappropriate romantic relationship" with the Air Force officer responsible for the branch's lobbying efforts in Congress, Maj. Gen. Christopher Finerty.

In a statement, Ernst's office did not deny the allegations but said that the senator's "votes and work in the Senate are guided by the voices of Iowans who elected her and her constitutional duty alone."

As ProPublica reporter Robert Faturechi explained, Senate rules do not forbid relationships between members and lobbyists. However, multiple sources warned of the potential for conflicts of interest, with one former military official calling the relationship "severely problematic."

Ernst is up for reelection to a third term next year, though no Democrats have yet expressed an interest in running against her. However, late last year, Donald Trump supporters threatened to back a primary challenger if Ernst—who initially sounded reluctant to confirm Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense—did not get fully on board with all of Trump's cabinet picks. She did.

Governors

AL-Gov, AL-Sen

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville appears to have confirmed his interest in seeking Alabama's open governorship next year, telling Punchbowl's Andrew Desiderio that he'll make a decision by May. Desiderio adds that Tuberville has been informing Senate colleagues and supporters that he "wants to run for governor" rather than seek reelection.

While Tuberville announced back in November that he'd seek a second term in the Senate, he soon began to sound less than committed to remaining in the upper chamber. In comments to reporters in January, he declined to rule out a gubernatorial bid, but he did tip his hand about where his interests lay.

"I can't say that I've enjoyed it up here, but I'm glad I've been in D.C. for the last four years," Tuberville said. "I'm looking forward to the next two years."

CO-Gov

Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet confirmed his interest in running for governor to reporters on Monday, though he did not lay out any timeline for making a decision. Reports that Bennet could seek the governorship first emerged late last week.

TN-Gov

Private prison CEO Damon Hininger, who said last year that he was considering a bid for Tennessee's governor, has reportedly decided not to run and has instead backed Sen. Marsha Blackburn. That, however, is according to an unnamed "source close to Blackburn" who spoke with Sarah Grace Taylor at the Nashville Banner. Hininger hasn't confirmed his stance publicly and did not respond to Taylor's requests for comment.

VA-Gov

A new survey from the Republican pollster Cygnal finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a 46-40 lead over Winsome Earle-Sears, the likely GOP nominee in this year's race for Virginia's open governorship. Cygnal, which did not mention a client, nevertheless argues that the political environment is good for the Republican, including because she has a higher net approval rating than Spanberger.

House

FL-19

Former state Rep. Bob Rommel said Monday that he was taking a job leading a conservative group, a move Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles says "should also end speculation" that he's interested in seeking the House seat that GOP Rep. Byron Donalds is giving up to run for governor. Rommel, who had been running for the state Senate (and dropped that campaign), will work with Erika Donalds, who happens to be the congressman's wife.

FL-23

Former state Rep. George Moraitis announced Monday that he would take on Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz in the 23rd District, a South Florida seat that shifted hard to the right last year.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Anthony Man writes that Moraitis was a loyal Donald Trump backer in 2016, during a period when many Florida Republicans were skeptical of their nominee. Moraitis, who at the time was the only GOP legislator based in Broward County, won his fourth and final term that year and was termed out in 2018. (Now there are two, both in the state House.)

Moraitis joins a Republican primary that already includes Joe Kaufman, a perennial candidate who held Moskowitz to a surprisingly close 52-48 victory last year. Few, though, credit Kaufman's showing to his dogged persistence: According to calculations from the Downballot, Kamala Harris carried Moskowitz's constituency by just a slim 51-49 margin, four years after Joe Biden took it by a far wider 56-43 spread.

Ballot Measures

SD Ballot

South Dakota's Republican-dominated legislature has put a constitutional amendment on next year's general election ballot asking voters whether they want to roll back a 2022 amendment that expanded Medicaid if federal support for the program's expansion falls below 90% of its cost.

By a 56-42 margin, voters approved the previous amendment, which was placed on the ballot by healthcare advocates after Republicans for years refused to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Republicans in Washington, D.C., have recently proposed cutting the federal government's support for Medicaid expansion to pay for tax cuts that favor the wealthy.

Legislatures

CA State Senate

Republican Tony Strickland has declared victory in last week's special election for California's 36th Senate District after further vote tallies showed him holding steady at 51%—enough to avoid an April runoff. His nearest rival, Democrat Jimmy Pham, also conceded while sitting on 28% of the vote.

The 36th is a conservative district in Orange County that went 51-47 for Donald Trump last year, according to calculations by The Downballot. It became vacant after Republican Janet Nguyen won election to the county's Board of Supervisors last year.

Strickland previously served in the legislature, representing the suburbs north of Los Angeles, and twice ran for Congress in the area. He later moved to Orange County and won a spot on the City Council in Huntington Beach in 2022. Even with his victory, though, Democrats hold a 30-10 supermajority in the Senate.