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ArcticStones's avatar

Re: The Trump Depression

"Donald Trump is on track to be the first president to deliberately engineer a severe depression."

One of the economics writers I pay attention to is Robert Kuttner. His articles at The American Prospect are admirably clear to a non-economist such as myself. I believe many here may find this to be of interest.

https://prospect.org/economy/2025-03-05-trump-depression/

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Zero Cool's avatar

A severe depression is unlikely as the banking sector is holding up fine and isn’t projected to contract.

That said, a mild depression could happen. 2020 like 1920 had a mild depression.

FYI, technically speaking mild depressions last a shorter time than severe depressions, which usually go on for years.

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Henrik's avatar

The 1920 depression is one that history has sort of forgotten. The pivot to a peacetime economy was very rough

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yeah, when you're talking about the so-called "roaring 20's" that happened after the 1920 depression, they were certainly short-lived. Ever since the Great Depression happened, it's like the 1920 mild depression was by contrast more of a blip or short recession.

Now that I think about it, there are similar dynamics between what happened in 1982 when Ronald Reagan was in his first year as 1981 as far as fighting inflation.

However, the economy was in a recession before Jimmy Carter left office whereas before President Biden left office the economy towards the end of last year was still growing. Reagan not only was handed a recession, he faced a deep recession from July 1981 - November 1982.

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