Morning Digest: This senator was just reelected, so why is she running ads now?

2024 is scarcely in the rearview, but the battle for 2026 is already here

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) may be looking to switch offices soon (credit: Marsha Blackburn Facebook)

Leading Off

TN-Gov

Tennessee Republican Marsha Blackburn just won a new six-year term in the Senate, but her decision to book TV ads to run later this month has intensified talk that she could soon seek a different office.

The ultra-conservative senator, Axios' Nate Rau writes, is the subject of "buzz" that she might run to succeed the Volunteer State's termed-out governor, Republican Bill Lee, in 2026. Blackburn, though, does not appear to have said anything publicly about her interest in becoming the first woman to lead this dark-red state.

And she may not be the only senator interested in entering the contest. Allie Feinberg of the Knoxville News Sentinel last week wrote that Sen. Bill Hagerty has also "been mentioned" as a possible contender for governor. Hagerty, who is up for reelection to his current job in 2026, also has not publicly addressed his interest in such a career switch.

Such a job swap for either Blackburn or Hagerty would be unusual. While many governors go on to serve in the Senate, it's much less common for members of the upper chamber to attempt the opposite move, though one just did so.

Indiana Republican Mike Braun's gubernatorial win last month made him the first sitting U.S. senator to claim his state's governorship since Kansas Republican Sam Brownback in 2010. That victory also made Braun just the fourth incumbent senator to be elected governor during the 21st century.

Prior to Brownback, the other two were Alaska Republican Frank Murkowski in 2002 and New Jersey Democrat Jon Corzine in 2005. New Hampshire Republican Kelly Ayotte also won her state's governorship last month, though that victory came eight years after she lost her Senate seat to Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.

There's a good reason why considerably more politicians try the route Hassan took than attempt to follow Braun's path. While 37 states―including Tennessee and Indiana―have term limits that will eventually force their chief executives out of the governor's office, senators can remain at their jobs for decades as long as voters keep reelecting them.

Still, some senators like the idea of leading their state instead of continuing as just one member of a 100-person body, with a much shorter commute to the statehouse than the endless schlepping to and from their Capitol Hill.

If Blackburn decides to try changing her address to the governor's mansion, it could deter other would-be candidates from joining the race to succeed Lee.

One person who might be impacted is Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, who appears to be actively preparing to run for governor. Feinberg wrote that Blackburn and Jacobs―better known as the former WWE star Kane―are "close," with Jacobs notably starring in a wrestling-themed ad for the senator's reelection campaign. If Blackburn became governor, though, she'd have the ability to appoint Jacobs or another ally to replace her in the Senate.

The Downballot Podcast

The NC GOP's rancid new power grab

It's been a good news/bad news week for Democrats and democracy in North Carolina, so we're diving deep into the muck to explain it all on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. A second recount upheld Democrat Allison Riggs' victory in the ultra-close race for the state Supreme Court, and officials threw out challenges from her Republican opponent seeking to invalidate some 60,000 ballots.

But the GOP also overrode Gov. Roy Cooper's veto to pass an obscene power grab that's as breathtaking as it is blatant. Just one example: They're moving the board of elections from the governor to the state auditor. Why? Simply because Democrats won the former office last month while Republicans won the latter. The rest of the bill is even more atrocious. Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir will tell you all about it.

Senate

IA-Sen

Conservative radio host Steve Deace tells Politico's Ally Mutnick that he's interested in challenging Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst in the GOP primary in 2026, when she'd be seeking a third term.

Deace's comments come at a time when Donald Trump's followers are threatening to destroy the career of any GOP senator who fails to vocally support all of Trump's cabinet picks. He added, though, that he'd stay out of the race if Trump prefers that someone else go after Ernst.

And there may be indeed a bigger name out there. Mutnick writes that Trump's forces have let the senator know that they'd field Attorney General Brenna Bird against her if she stands in the way. Bird recently wrote a post on Breitbart exhorting the Senate to confirm Trump's nominees, though she's said nothing publicly about her interest in being part of such a scheme.

We may never find out, because Ernst seems to have realized it's best for her to stop setting off Mar-a-Lago's Independent Thought Alarm. After initially sounding reluctant to confirm Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense, Ernst pledged Monday to "support Pete through this process."

TX-Sen

While Texas Sen. John Cornyn reaffirmed that he'd seek a fifth term after losing last month's race for majority leader, Jonathan Martin writes in Politico that some Republicans aren't convinced.

Martin says that the senator has made the same reelection pledges behind closed doors, but skeptics note that he may soon have to sweat through a difficult primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Cornyn's allies had also hoped that the senator would be more likely to run again if he were to become chair of the powerful Intelligence Committee, but Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton has made it clear he won't give up his claim to the gavel. And Cotton is likely to get his way: Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune is in charge of choosing who chairs the committee, and he seems set to grant it to Cotton, who both has more seniority on the panel and supported him over Cornyn for leader.

Still, while the 72-year-old Cornyn will almost certainly never achieve his longtime dream of being the first Texan to run the upper chamber since Democrat Lyndon Johnson, he still has an incentive to seek reelection to the very seat that the master of the Senate once held. Martin notes that Cornyn is positioned to take over the finance committee in two years―if he's still in the Senate, that is.

Governors

NJ-Gov

Rep. Mikie Sherrill's allies at the Laborers’ International Union of North America have put out an internal poll showing her leading the pack in next year's Democratic primary for governor, though with a plurality undecided. The numbers from Upswing Research & Strategy, which were first shared by the New Jersey Globe, are below:

• Rep. Mikie Sherrill: 25

• Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: 13

• Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 10

• Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop: 8

• Former state Sen. Steve Sweeney: 8

• New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller: 7

• Undecided: 30

The Globe reported later on Wednesday that a Global Strategy Group survey for Sherrill’s campaign gave the congresswoman a 24-11 advantage against Sweeney, with Gottheimer and Baraka taking 9% each.

These are the first surveys we've seen since Gottheimer and Sherrill launched their campaigns last month.

The Garden State's party primaries are scheduled for June 3, but don't block that date on your calendar just yet. The current date overlaps with the Jewish holiday of Shavuot, a time when observant Jews would be unable to cast ballots. Several candidates from both parties have urged legislative leaders to reschedule the election when they reconvene next month.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

North Carolina's Board of Elections rejected Republican Jefferson Griffin's challenges to 60,000 ballots cast in last month's race for the state Supreme Court, which Democrat Allison Riggs leads by 734 votes. Griffin can appeal those rulings to a state court, but he has not yet announced his plans.

The bulk of Griffin's challenges involved voters whose registrations did not include Social Security or driver's license numbers. While such data is required by state law, registration forms used for many years did not offer a space for voters to provide those numbers, and officials never attempted to gather that information after the fact. The panel's three Democratic members all voted against Griffin's challenges on these grounds while its two Republicans voted in favor.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield became the first major candidate to officially enter what could be a packed 2025 race for mayor when she kicked off her campaign on Tuesday.

Sheffield, who would be the first woman to lead the Motor City, hails from a well-known local family. Her late grandfather, Horace Sheffield Jr., was an influential labor and civil rights leader, while her father, Horace Sheffield III, is a prominent pastor.

Mary Sheffield became the youngest person elected to the City Council when she first won office in 2013 at the age of 26, and she's led the body since 2022. She began raising money even before the current mayor, Mike Duggan, confirmed last month that he wouldn't seek a fourth term and had about $350,000 stockpiled through October. (Duggan has since announced that he's bolted the Democratic Party to run for governor as an independent.)

Sheffield, though, is likely to face serious opposition before long from fellow Democrats. State House Speaker Joe Tate formed an exploratory committee shortly before Thanksgiving, though the news only broke last week. Tate, who will lose his gavel when the new Republican majority is sworn in next month, has not yet publicly committed to a bid, though.

Former Detroit City Council president Saunteel Jenkins, meanwhile, says she'll announce a campaign in early 2025. Jenkins, who left elected office a decade ago to lead a nonprofit, formed an exploratory committee this summer. City Council member Fred Durhal has also created an exploratory committee, though the Detroit Free Press' M.L. Elrick wrote last month that "many local politicos expect" him to stay out of the race.

And there's still plenty of time for other contenders to enter the race to lead this reliably blue city. All the candidates will compete in an officially nonpartisan primary, which usually takes place in August. The top two contenders will advance to the general election in November.

New Orleans, LA Mayor

City Council President Helena Moreno announced on Wednesday that she would run to replace New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell, a fellow Democrat who is termed out of office. Moreno is the first major candidate to enter the October all-party primary but, as we explained earlier this week in our preview of this race, she almost certainly won't be the last.

Moreno was a local TV news anchor before she began her political career in 2008. She was elected to a citywide seat on the Council in 2017 as Cantrell was winning the mayor's office, but the two have frequently come into conflict over the ensuing seven years.

Moreno used her kickoff video to portray herself as a much-needed change from the status quo overseen by the incumbent, who is under federal investigation and has weak approval ratings. After bemoaning the city's high crime rate and notoriously bad infrastructure―the candidate is shown walking around decaying sidewalks―Moreno calls for "rebuilding government from the ground up."

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

Former Rep. TJ Cox has agreed to plead guilty to two charges of fraud next month and pay a maximum of $3.5 million in fines as part of a deal with federal prosecutors, his attorneys said in a plea agreement submitted Wednesday. The government will also drop the remaining 24 charges it leveled against him in 2022.

Cox, a California Democrat, won his only term in Congress in 2018 when he unseated Republican Rep. David Valadao in an astonishing upset, but he lost a tight rematch two years later. Cox had planned to run a third time to reclaim his Central Valley constituency in 2022, but he ultimately sat out the race.

The former congressman soon had bigger things to worry about, though. The FBI arrested him that year for allegedly participating in "multiple fraud schemes" in both business and elections. Prosecutors accused him of breaking campaign finance laws by funneling money to friends and family and having them contribute it to his campaign to make it look like he was raising more from donors than he actually was.