Morning Digest: Detroit's mayor quits Democratic Party to run for governor as an independent

But Mike Duggan faces many obstacles, including just getting on the ballot

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running for governor as an independent (credit: Mike Duggan Facebook)

Leading Off

MI-Gov

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his long-expected bid for governor of Michigan on Wednesday, but with a very unexpected twist: Despite serving as a Democrat during his decade in office, Duggan said he'd campaign as an independent.

Duggan's move could upend the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and if he pulls votes disproportionately from the left, that could undermine Democrats' hopes of winning a third straight gubernatorial election.

But Duggan's nascent campaign faces many obstacles, not the least of which is simply making the ballot. Duggan must collect 12,000 valid voter signatures, along with at least 100 in half of the state's 13 congressional districts—a task that has vexed many statewide hopefuls in the past.

Just two years ago, five of the 10 candidates competing for the GOP nomination for governor, including the nominal frontrunner, saw their campaigns come to a premature end after they submitted tens of thousands of invalid signatures, including forgeries, duplicates, and signatures from dead people.

Even if Duggan avoids ballot access pitfalls, his odds remain low. Just half a dozen candidates have won races for governor without major-party support over the last half-century, and none have ever been elected in Michigan since it gained statehood in 1837.

As the Detroit News also notes, Michigan has a robust tradition of straight-ticket voting, which allows voters to vote for a party's entire slate of candidates just by checking a single box. In Wayne County, where Detroit is situated, 64% of voters chose that option in the last election for governor, the paper points out.

Duggan, though, defied the odds once before, when he won his first campaign for mayor in 2013 running as a write-in candidate in the primary after getting tossed off the ballot because he didn't meet the city's residency requirements. The victory made Duggan the first white mayor of majority-Black Detroit since the 1970s.

That same year, however, Detroit became the largest city in American history to file for bankruptcy, though it emerged the next year. Duggan has generally won high marks for leading the city through its recovery, and voters rewarded him with two more terms in landslide victories.

A statewide campaign in a swing state, however, is a very different creature from one in a dark-blue city. While Duggan will likely have access to large sums of money (Bill Ford Jr., the executive chair of the Ford Motor Company, endorsed him out the gate), he'll face attacks at a level of intensity far beyond any he's previously endured—not only from Democrats but possibly from Republicans as well.

And though Duggan is the first major name to join the race, he won't be the last. Though the Democratic jockeying appears to be further along, some Republicans are starting to make moves.

Former Attorney General Mike Cox recently told Detroit News columnist Nolan Finley that "the only thing he's interested in" is the governorship. Cox finished third in the 2010 GOP primary for governor, but as Finley notes, he was the lead attorney in the lawsuit brought by victims of serial sexual abuser Robert Anderson against the University of Michigan, which ended with a $490 million settlement two years ago. He could therefore potentially self-fund another bid.

Finley also reports that former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, who lost a campaign for attorney general in 2018, is considering the contest. So is wealthy businessman Perry Johnson, who was one of the Republicans who got kicked off the ballot in the governor's race two years ago.

The Downballot Podcast

How EMILYs List's candidates won in a tough year

The last unresolved House race of 2024 is finally in the books, giving Democrats a victory that will narrow the GOP's already precarious margin even further. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of Republicans' tiny majority, which will either result in gridlock or further dependence on Democratic votes. The Davids also discuss Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's decision to abandon the Democratic Party and run for governor as an independent—though it might not prove to be a catastrophe for Democrats.

Joining us for our deep dive this week is Jessica Mackler, president of EMILYs List, a political mainstay that's been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for nearly 40 years. Mackler highlights endorsees who overperformed to win tough races, like Michigan's Elissa Slotkin, while noting that vocal support for abortion rights is only one part of a winning campaign. She also looks toward upcoming races EMILYs is focused on and shares some thoughts on top-shelf candidates who could run again after falling just short in 2024.

Senate

GA-Sen, GA-Gov

Donald Trump on Wednesday named former Sen. Kelly Loeffler to lead the Small Business Administration, a Cabinet-level post. Loeffler recently declined to rule out a campaign for governor of Georgia or a bid against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, though she didn't indicate how interested she was in either post.

LA-Sen

Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming on Wednesday became the first major Republican to announce a primary campaign against Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot.

Cassidy's new challenger put that heresy front and center in his launch, declaring, "[T]hose who turned their backs on him and America First were not committed to his fight to make America great again."

Fleming is hoping to return to Congress a decade after he gave up his place in the House to wage a failed campaign for the Pelican State's other Senate seat.

Fleming, who was first elected to represent the Shreveport area in 2008, was a favorite of anti-establishment groups like the deep-pocketed Club for Growth during his time on Capitol Hill. He was also one of the founders of the far-right Freedom Caucus, which he saw as a bulwark of resistance to then-Speaker John Boehner.

"We were irritations for Boehner," Fleming told 538 last year, "and Boehner was an irritation for us."

Fleming went on to campaign to replace retiring GOP Sen. David Vitter, but he lost out on his chance to antagonize Mitch McConnell in the Senate. The congressman, despite the Club's support, struggled to stand out in a packed Republican field dominated by the eventual winner, Treasurer John Kennedy.

Louisiana, under the rules in use at the time, required all the Senate candidates to face off on a single ballot, and Fleming's 11% was only good for fifth place. His campaign had one surprising effect, though, since the man elected to succeed him in the House was none other than Mike Johnson.

Fleming stayed in the nation's capital after he was appointed to various posts in the Trump administration, but he wasn't done with politics at home. The former congressman campaigned for Kennedy's old job last year after the incumbent treasurer, Republican John Schroder, left to wage a failed bid for governor. This time, he decisively won.

Several other Republicans have also expressed interest in challenging Cassidy in a race that, thanks to a state law approved early this year, will operate under different rules than Fleming's 2016 effort. Louisiana will now hold separate primaries for Republicans and Democrats, with a runoff taking place in contests where no one earns more than 50% of the vote.

Governors

MN-Gov

Republican Rep. Pete Stauber "seems to be eyeing" a bid for governor, reports the Minnesota Reformer's J. Patrick Coolican, noting that he's "been regularly attacking Gov. Tim Walz ever since the election." Walz could seek a third term in 2026 but has yet to announce his plans.

TN-Gov

A whole host of Republicans are hovering around the race to succeed Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who will be termed out in 2026, including Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs—better known to many as the former WWE star Kane.

Jacobs, who calls himself a "Ron Paul Republican," has long been taking steps toward a run for governor, reports Allie Feinberg of the Knoxville News Sentinel. Those include stumping for candidates across the state and setting up a PAC, though he has yet to confirm his plans publicly.

With his long career in the ring winding down, Kane ran for county mayor in 2018 and won the GOP primary in an upset, in part thanks to campaign trail appearances by other wrestling stars like Ric Flair. He secured a second and final term four years later, though his 55-45 win in the general election was much narrower than his 66-34 romp in his first race.

Republican Rep. John Rose has also been traipsing across Tennessee with his eyes on the governorship and was "expected to announce shortly after" last month's election, according to a late October report from Andy Sher of State Affairs. A month later, though, Rose has not kicked off a campaign.

House

ME-02

Republican Austin Theriault conceded to Democratic Rep. Jared Golden on Wednesday and said he was ending the recount he sought after preliminary results showed no major changes in the candidates' totals. Golden prevailed 50.3-49.7 even as Donald Trump was carrying Maine's 2nd District 53-44.

Mayors & County Leaders

Minneapolis, MN Mayor

Minneapolis City Councilmember Emily Koski on Wednesday announced that she would challenge Mayor Jacob Frey, a fellow Democrat, in next year's ranked-choice contest. Koski is campaigning for the post that her late father, Albert Hofstede, held in the 1970s.

Koski, as The Downballot detailed earlier this week, is a former Frey ally who has repeatedly broken with him over the last year. Our in-depth overview also covered the other candidates running to lead this reliably blue city, including state Sen. Omar Fateh and pastor DeWayne Davis.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

The U.S. Senate confirmed former Rep. Anthony Brindisi on Wednesday to serve as a federal district judge in northern New York. Brindisi represented the old 22nd District in the Utica and Binghamton areas for one term after narrowly ousting Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2018, but Tenney defeated him in a 2020 rematch by a tiny 109-vote margin even though Donald Trump decisively carried the district.

Politico's Anthony Adragna notes that it's unusual, but not unheard of, for former members of Congress to become federal judges. One notable example is the late Abner Mikva, an Illinois Democrat who served as a mentor for both Barack Obama and Justice Elena Kagan.