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Kildere53's avatar

So somebody imported a dataset into DRA of the precinct-level election results from this year's election in New York City. And I've been looking through that.

Frankly, it's really kind of appalling how terribly Harris did in NYC. Neighborhoods like Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst are almost uniformly 60%+ for Trump. The entire Flushing area of Queens is now purple, if not red in some areas. Ozone Park, Woodhaven, and Richmond Hill are now less than 60% Democratic. Precincts in Corona that are heavily Hispanic and gave Biden 70% now voted for Trump. And the South Bronx, once home to the bluest congressional district in the entire country, is now only 70% Democratic. In some precincts, Harris got less than half of the votes that Biden did. (And Hillary generally did even better than Biden in those precincts.) What happened?!?!?

Another thing I noticed is that Harris got only about 92-93% in the heavily African-American precincts. She clearly didn't receive any sort of bump in support from them due to her own African-American heritage. And yet Obama generally got >99% of the vote in those same precincts. Did African-Americans not consider Harris's candidacy historic since she wasn't the first Black presidential nominee? Or, I can't help but wonder if the reason why Obama won almost unanimous support from African-Americans wasn't just because he was Black (as many people claimed after the 2008 election), and that the economic crash just before the 2008 election that happened on Republicans' watch (a factor that Harris didn't have) was also a major factor (meaning that Obama might have only got 96% or so of the African-American vote if the economy had been doing fine).

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Henrik's avatar

The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasive flips with the exception of Haredi Jews

And yes I do think that Obama might have landed more 95-96% sans the 2008 crash. IIRC he dropped off a bit with black voters by 2012, though by only a small amount

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Hochul and Adams are so terrible for the NY dem party we'd be forgiven for thinking they're deliberate saboteurs. Adams, at least, seems reasonably capable of being tossed in a primary next year. Not guaranteed but not a stretch, either. Hochul needs a serious opponent to show up first for me to feel that way.

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Paleo's avatar

Adams may not run as a Democrat. Assuming he runs.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Possible, I think he'd get absolutely clobbered as a non-dem though. Maybe if he was better liked and had some core constituencies locked down. I'm not super familiar with NYC politics though so what do I know?

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Jonathan's avatar

He’s going to be clobbered anyway; he’s toast

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Andrew's avatar

I think we should take Trump’s campaign strategy seriously. When he said Harris just turned black yesterday, there was a reason for that. The smarty pants people calling it racist aren’t who that message was for. The Trump campaign pretty much did everything they said they would do when it comes to how he’d win.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

It wasn't a strategy, that was just Trumps racism and he dropped it pretty quickly because it wasn't working.

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