The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasi…
The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasive flips with the exception of Haredi Jews
And yes I do think that Obama might have landed more 95-96% sans the 2008 crash. IIRC he dropped off a bit with black voters by 2012, though by only a small amount
Hochul and Adams are so terrible for the NY dem party we'd be forgiven for thinking they're deliberate saboteurs. Adams, at least, seems reasonably capable of being tossed in a primary next year. Not guaranteed but not a stretch, either. Hochul needs a serious opponent to show up first for me to feel that way.
Possible, I think he'd get absolutely clobbered as a non-dem though. Maybe if he was better liked and had some core constituencies locked down. I'm not super familiar with NYC politics though so what do I know?
The sorry state of local governance in NYC (starting with De Blasio and Cuomo and accelerating remarkably with Adams and Hochul) is, I think, a big part of this. There’s a key part of the coalition that simply has tuned out of what the party is selling in that area. Everything there seems to point to turnout collapse rather than persuasive flips with the exception of Haredi Jews
And yes I do think that Obama might have landed more 95-96% sans the 2008 crash. IIRC he dropped off a bit with black voters by 2012, though by only a small amount
Hochul and Adams are so terrible for the NY dem party we'd be forgiven for thinking they're deliberate saboteurs. Adams, at least, seems reasonably capable of being tossed in a primary next year. Not guaranteed but not a stretch, either. Hochul needs a serious opponent to show up first for me to feel that way.
Adams may not run as a Democrat. Assuming he runs.
Possible, I think he'd get absolutely clobbered as a non-dem though. Maybe if he was better liked and had some core constituencies locked down. I'm not super familiar with NYC politics though so what do I know?
He’s going to be clobbered anyway; he’s toast