The survey of Jewish registered voters, conducted by the polling firm GBAO Strategies, found that 52 percent of respondents say the word “antisemitic” describes the president very or somewhat well.
In addition, 74 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 26 percent approve. Close to 70 percent said the words “fascist” and “racist” describe him very or somewhat well.
I'm bewildered by how much of a grip the religious right has politically in Israel. It seems counterproductive to the concept of Judaism in general, at least compared to here in America.
Is this a relatively recent phenomenon? Diaspora returning from the US and Europe were more pluralistic and willing to make peace. Diaspora from Russia, northern Africa, and Western Asia tended to be much less so.
Makes sense. From what I’ve read, Putin’s push over loyalty and arguing Russians don’t need change was the final straw for Russian Jews to flee to Israel.
I wouldn’t imagine any Reform or Secular Jews would have lasted long in Russia. In the U.S., it’s much easier being in this denomination of Judaism than in countries where there’s no form of democracy.
What I am arguing has less to do with the denomination of Judaism and more to do with trying to understand why in this whole time Putin has been President of Russia that more Jews remained even well into the 2010’s to then finally leave? In Putin’s rule, you cannot criticize him or you get punished (imprisonment, murder, etc.). This isn’t an environment I’d imagine any Jew wanting to live in. Of course, growing up in Russia I would understand it’s where their home is.
When I say I can’t imagine Reform Jews and Secular Jews lasting in Russia, it has to do with me thinking as an American Jew and realizing some of the most liberal and non-religious types of Jews I have come to known are Reform and Secular. Perhaps Secular Jews from Russia are different but the ones I have known over the years so not like Putin.
My grandfather left the Russian Federation in the early 1900’s and was more Reform Jewish although he, his wife and my father lived in an Orthodox Jewish household for a period of time in the 1940’s. M
Yeah, being secular does not mean that you oppose authoritarianism, and keep in mind that most Soviets were atheists or at least irreligious. I also think you're incorrect that most Russian Jews have not left Russia, but many of those who have and for example went to Israel still support him.
In case it matters, I wasn’t referring to most Russian Jews leaving Russia. I was just reading a story years ago how Russian Jews were leaving the country because of Putin but I also have not looked at the current population of Jews living in the country. If there are Russian Jews who have left to Israel and still support Putin, then they are not the ones I am referring to as discussed in the article.
Thanks for the insight on Secular Judaism. Being that I have primarily met Jews in the U.S., I have to admit I ought to meet them elsewhere in the world to get a better perspective on what they believe in.
14% of Israel's population are Haredi Jews (i.e. ultra-Orthodox). The only counties in America whose percentages of ultra-Orthodox Jews are even close to that are Rockland (NY) and Ocean (NJ), and those populations are a major issue in the local politics there just as they are in Israel. Plus, ultra-Orthodox Jews usually have very large families, so their population is also growing rapidly.
In addition, Israeli politics is heavily divided and factionalized anyway, so the ultra-Orthodox parties have frequently acted as kingmakers in governing coalitions, which makes it difficult for the other parties in those coalitions to actively oppose the ultra-Orthodox parties.
As a Jew who is obviously not ultra-Orthodox, I agree that much of their social policy agenda is terrible. The sad fact is that there's always going to be a faction of the religious majority that wants to impose its views on the minority. It's up to the other members of the religious majority to promote religious tolerance and oppose extremism.
In Brooklyn, I believe Borough Park and neighborhoods to the east have about 100,000 Haredi Jews, and Williamsburg has about 40,000 to 50,000. There aren't too many who live in Crown Heights anymore. That's about 150,000, which is only about 6% of Brooklyn's population. But there could be more in other neighborhoods that I'm not aware of.
In Manhattan, Haredi Jews don't dominate anywhere. Haredim voted almost unanimously for Trump last year, and Harris won every precinct in Manhattan (and the only precinct that went less than 60% for her is heavily Asian, so not Haredim). So I don't think there are a particularly large number who live there - I believe the Jews in Manhattan are more Modern Orthodox, Conservative, or Reform.
And it's only going to grow, just check the birth rates of different Jewish groups by religiosity there. The gap is so huge that it isn't compensated by Jews that choose to change lifestyles after growing up. The religious right in Israel has kept on increasing unemployed childcare support since it came to power.
Franco was fascist but not antisemitic, and several of Mussolini's top generals were not only not Jew-haters but saved the lives of thousands of Jews in southern France and in and near other Italian-occupied areas, as well as by telling Mussolini that if he handed Jews over to the Nazis, they would overthrow him. It wasn't until the Nazis occupied Italy that Italian Jews were marked for death and murdered just for being Jews, and I understand that some important early supporters of the Italian Fascist Party were Jews.
Yeah, the relationship of Mussolini’s Italy and its Jewish community was quite complicated. Mussolini wasn’t even particularly fond of the Nazis until the UK sanctioned him over Ethiopia; before that, he viewed Dollfuss’s Austria as more of a kindred spirit than Hitler’s Germany (Austrofascism was explicitly anti-Pan-Germanism, for starters)
He was a student of Karl Lueger to an extent, and his whole schtick was that Austria’s identity was inseparable from its Catholicism and the role of the Habsburgs as *the* Catholic dynasty, so I’d say he was at least quite adjacent to anti-Semites and their thought processes.
But a Hitler he was most certainly not - more of a Mussolini, and indeed his most direct ideological inspiration was probably Salazar’s Portugal
There is no increasing level of anti-Semitism on the left. That is a canard used by the right, and others, to weaponize anti-Semitism against universities and free speech generally in this country.
Out of respect for the limits of a certain topic, I will let the discussion be with my comment. If this topic wasn’t so sensitive, I could, without any reference to university protests, provide overwhelming evidence of my claim that the level of antisemitism is increasing – also on the left.
Actually, and much to my surprise, Laura Loomer has recently also come out with a strong defense of Medicaid. Pinching my arm: I never thought I would agree with Loomer on ... anything.
Hmm, interesting. Known Peters for over 10 years and he's never mentioned being Jewish. Mentioned many times that he was raised Catholic by an Irish Catholic adoptive father.
Whatever works, but if he starts to say he's always considered himself Muslim-adjacent, that might be a little too much.
"I’m an adopted child. Last year, I found my Jewish biological father. In my 20s, I considered converting to Judaism, and so this discovery only confirmed something I had always known about myself on some level. I began the process of formally converting to Judaism, and joined my local congregation. I learned about the history of my ancestors, and their escape from Ukraine and Lithuania to settle here in North Lawndale. For this adoptee, I had found another home."
WaPo: Democrats pull off an upset in Nebraska, electing Omaha’s first Black mayor
Voters denied Republican Mayor Jean Stothert a fourth term in a race overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s agenda in Washington — the latest test of attitudes in a political battleground.
Her endorsement of Trump and focus on trans issues along with Ken Martin's increased investment in red states and Blue Dot organisations seem to have helped a lot. I think Nebraska Dem chair Jane Kleeb has been smart by first tacitly supporting Dan Osborn and not dividing the non republican vote in 2024 and now this.
Hell, between Stothert's weak showing in the primary and the crappy environment for Republicans, I thought Ewing was going into the election slightly favored.
It's still pretty red from the outset. Statistics from the Independent Voter Project (as of October 2024):
Democrats: 1,052,495 (29.61%)
Republicans: 1,589,115 (44.68%)
Third Party/Other: 42,234 (1.19%)
Unaffiliated: 870,982 (24.51%)
That unaffiliated bloc is pretty significant. Without Trump on the ballot, plus new registered voters from up north migrating down South, it could go the way of Georgia in the future.
South Carolina's numbers in Civiqs massive real time Trump poll has been pleasant surprise, it's consistently been +0 to +2 Trump and to the left of Florida which has also seen a huge swing and Ohio.
Only time will tell whether this translates onto the ballot.
I recently read a news article which said that many young remote workers who came to Florida during the Pandemic are moving to the Carolinas and Georgia, leaving the state which also had huge outmigration last year.
Is Myrtle Beach still a big deal in that regard? It used to be all people talked about when I was growing up on the border of PA and OH in the '90s. At least one of my schoolteachers retired there.
Presidential margins starting from 2012: R+10, R+14, R+12, R+18.
Even treating 2024 as an outlier, there's no pattern of it moving towards us. Nationally 2012-2016-2020 were all reasonably close in the popular vote margin so we cannot discount the state results based on any national variance either.
Wouldn’t that make 2012 informative bc it was the beginning of the end? 2010 is when the South finally realigned completely and voted out several Dem Congressmembers representing red districts that benefited from split ticket voting.
The shift started in 2010 with the Tea Party uprising caused by us having a black POTUS. 2010 was a terrible election everywhere but it was very unique in that the Dems lost a Congress member in damn near every Southern state not just bc it was a wave, but bc it was the final realignment for them. Longtime Dem seats went down bc ticket splitting was over with for the South bc of black Obama.
To ignore 2012 is such folly. How do you explain the ending without the beginning? It started in 2010 with the Obama birth certificate crap and here we are, way too many years later still asking for that.
How did Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Georgia and others vote in 2012 compared to 2016 and 2020. The inner suburbs hadn't shifted blue and the working class hadn't left the party totally in presidential elections.
I’m not talking about the suburban/rural realignment, I’m talking about the Southern realignment that began back in 1964 and concluded in 2012. Lots of action going on in the South but down ballot.
Which, I spose that helps your point that 2012 doesn’t matter when comparing 2016, 2020 and 2024. But if we’re going to talk about South Carolina, well the steadiness of their electoral history the past few decades just goes to show how the realignments have done very little to the top lines. Lots of shifting but not much budging.
Didn't the southern realignment begin in 1964 federally, accelerate in the 1994 Republican revolution and 2000 Presidential election. By 2010, Democrats lost control of all state legislatures in the South. The tea party was the final nail in the coffin, yes.
I think the biggest factor in 2012 wasn't WCW realignment, it was the wildly outsized turnout advantage of black voters compared to white that year. It wasn't that white conservatives voted Obama in 2012....they just didn't show up to vote at all.
I think another which was stated by some analysts was that Mormonism and being a part of the coastal elite among other reasons isn't looked favourably among those voters. Mormonism has one of the least national favourability among other religions.
Agreed, it’s not. 2 equal trends causing a stasis. Rurals, exurbs and conservative retirees moving the state right with the cities, suburbs and minorities moving the state left. Until Democrats hit rock bottom or reverse the trend and go up in the exurbs/rural areas it’ll be very difficult for the party to win statewide.
Is SC-01 being where the changing purple trends are happening?
I know Jim Clyburn has the bluest district of SC and SC-01 is a Lean GOP district. As far as everywhere else in the state, last I checked it’s red to the core.
What is going on with Keisha Lance Bottoms? She is apparently producing a TV show for Tyler Perry but is also saying she will announce for Governor soon. Is she serious about running or is this talk of running just publicity for her show?
Here's hoping Matt Dunlap follows through with running for ME-2, regardless of what Jared Golden does-we really don't need people like Golden in Congress-he's literally no better than a Republican.
Campaign literature may tell you what the politician wants to tell you and exclude other things you should know, but it can be a damn good way to find out that you don't support someone. Case in point: a volunteer for Zohran Mamdani's campaign for Mayor of New York came to my building to canvass. I didn't have time to talk to him, but he put a flyer under my door. Here's what it says:
"As mayor, he will:
*Freeze the rent for rent-stabilized tenants & stand up to bad landlords
*Build 200,000 new affordable homes
*Deliver universal, no cost childcare
*Make buses fast and free"
Now, like Mamdani, I am a democratic socialist. However, unlike him, I am a realist, and I don't fall for promises of pie in the sky. I'm a rent-stabilized tenant, but realistically, since landlords have much greater expenses as a result of inflation, freezing rent is absurd! And with that policy, you are going to build 200,000 new affordable homes how? Making buses free is a great idea, though subways should then be free, too, but with what money does he think he'll do that and also pay for childcare for every child who needs it?
To sum up, Mamdani is not going to get one of my top votes (I have up to 5 in this ranked-choice primary). His heart seems to be in the right place, but to put it bluntly, my brain is in my head, not my ass. If he really turns out to be the main opposition to Adams and Cuomo, New York City is in deep shit, because a wild-eyed extremist like this is not going to win.
I said he won't get one of my top votes. Somewhere between 3 and 5 might be possible for him, but I'd rather not vote for this guy. Cuomo and Adams won't get a vote from me at all.
Adrienne Adams? I presume Eric Adams doesn't reappear until the general election.
And ideologically, while Mamdani may talk a big game that may earn him plaudits and votes from the left, most recent elections (primary and general) don't suggest that most NY voters are particularly eager for "democratic socialism" or left/progressive experiments, however worthy the goals.
Face it, a competent not-very-left candidate like Kathryn Garcia, who almost won last time, is much more likely to win than a pie-in-the-sky guy pretending he can square circles and that NYC has an unlimited budget. NYC is just not very leftist.
Perhaps a dumb question, but why didn’t she run again this time? She seemed like a near guarantee “not Cuomo” solidified vote consolidator in this primary as the “good enough vote” from moderates to progressives had she run again. Whereas this split field is a disaster waiting to happen.
To be clear: I don’t think Cuomo would do a terrible job as mayor, he’s definitely got the experience to run such a complex city (even though I will very much disagree with many of his policies), but I REALLY don’t like Democrats setting the same expectations for the party as the Republicans where sexual violence/assault/harassment isn’t an automatic disqualifier. Once that can is opened, we can’t ever seal it back up.
I absolutely don't trust Cuomo to do a good job. I certainly don't think he would serve the average New Yorker well. Remember that he worked to weaken the Democratic Party and prop up the Republicans. As for why Kathryn Garcia didn't run again, I have no idea, and I don't know why no-one seems to have asked her. I've heard absolutely nothing about her during this election season.
The survey of Jewish registered voters, conducted by the polling firm GBAO Strategies, found that 52 percent of respondents say the word “antisemitic” describes the president very or somewhat well.
In addition, 74 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 26 percent approve. Close to 70 percent said the words “fascist” and “racist” describe him very or somewhat well.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/half-of-american-jewish-voters-believe-trump-is-antisemitic-poll-finds/
I'm bewildered by how much of a grip the religious right has politically in Israel. It seems counterproductive to the concept of Judaism in general, at least compared to here in America.
Many of the Americans who moved to Israel and Israeli settlements on the West Bank are religious extremists.
Is this a relatively recent phenomenon? Diaspora returning from the US and Europe were more pluralistic and willing to make peace. Diaspora from Russia, northern Africa, and Western Asia tended to be much less so.
No, it goes back to the 1980s at least.
On the other hand, Russian Jews who have fled Russia to escape Putin and the Kremlin’s rule may not be extremists themselves.
But naturally, feeling the U.S. is a different affair than fleeing Russia.
The former Soviet Jews tend to vote right-wing, but mainly based on security concerns. Most of them are irreligious.
Makes sense. From what I’ve read, Putin’s push over loyalty and arguing Russians don’t need change was the final straw for Russian Jews to flee to Israel.
I wouldn’t imagine any Reform or Secular Jews would have lasted long in Russia. In the U.S., it’s much easier being in this denomination of Judaism than in countries where there’s no form of democracy.
I'm very confused by your remark about secular Jews in Russia. Russian Jews are overwhelmingly secular, are they not?
What I am arguing has less to do with the denomination of Judaism and more to do with trying to understand why in this whole time Putin has been President of Russia that more Jews remained even well into the 2010’s to then finally leave? In Putin’s rule, you cannot criticize him or you get punished (imprisonment, murder, etc.). This isn’t an environment I’d imagine any Jew wanting to live in. Of course, growing up in Russia I would understand it’s where their home is.
When I say I can’t imagine Reform Jews and Secular Jews lasting in Russia, it has to do with me thinking as an American Jew and realizing some of the most liberal and non-religious types of Jews I have come to known are Reform and Secular. Perhaps Secular Jews from Russia are different but the ones I have known over the years so not like Putin.
My grandfather left the Russian Federation in the early 1900’s and was more Reform Jewish although he, his wife and my father lived in an Orthodox Jewish household for a period of time in the 1940’s. M
Yeah, being secular does not mean that you oppose authoritarianism, and keep in mind that most Soviets were atheists or at least irreligious. I also think you're incorrect that most Russian Jews have not left Russia, but many of those who have and for example went to Israel still support him.
In case it matters, I wasn’t referring to most Russian Jews leaving Russia. I was just reading a story years ago how Russian Jews were leaving the country because of Putin but I also have not looked at the current population of Jews living in the country. If there are Russian Jews who have left to Israel and still support Putin, then they are not the ones I am referring to as discussed in the article.
Thanks for the insight on Secular Judaism. Being that I have primarily met Jews in the U.S., I have to admit I ought to meet them elsewhere in the world to get a better perspective on what they believe in.
14% of Israel's population are Haredi Jews (i.e. ultra-Orthodox). The only counties in America whose percentages of ultra-Orthodox Jews are even close to that are Rockland (NY) and Ocean (NJ), and those populations are a major issue in the local politics there just as they are in Israel. Plus, ultra-Orthodox Jews usually have very large families, so their population is also growing rapidly.
In addition, Israeli politics is heavily divided and factionalized anyway, so the ultra-Orthodox parties have frequently acted as kingmakers in governing coalitions, which makes it difficult for the other parties in those coalitions to actively oppose the ultra-Orthodox parties.
As a Jew who is obviously not ultra-Orthodox, I agree that much of their social policy agenda is terrible. The sad fact is that there's always going to be a faction of the religious majority that wants to impose its views on the minority. It's up to the other members of the religious majority to promote religious tolerance and oppose extremism.
Do you have the Chasidic percentage of Kings County (Brooklyn) handy? I'm curious about New York County (Manhattan), too.
In Brooklyn, I believe Borough Park and neighborhoods to the east have about 100,000 Haredi Jews, and Williamsburg has about 40,000 to 50,000. There aren't too many who live in Crown Heights anymore. That's about 150,000, which is only about 6% of Brooklyn's population. But there could be more in other neighborhoods that I'm not aware of.
In Manhattan, Haredi Jews don't dominate anywhere. Haredim voted almost unanimously for Trump last year, and Harris won every precinct in Manhattan (and the only precinct that went less than 60% for her is heavily Asian, so not Haredim). So I don't think there are a particularly large number who live there - I believe the Jews in Manhattan are more Modern Orthodox, Conservative, or Reform.
My impression is that Midwood has many non-Chasidic Orthodox Jews but also many Chasidim.
And it's only going to grow, just check the birth rates of different Jewish groups by religiosity there. The gap is so huge that it isn't compensated by Jews that choose to change lifestyles after growing up. The religious right in Israel has kept on increasing unemployed childcare support since it came to power.
As they say, Demographics is destiny.
What you're saying is interesting. My understanding is that in the U.S., it _is_ compensated by people leaving Chasidic communities.
I read a research paper which had the calculations by a secular Israeli prof., I'll try to find it.
There are at least 18% of them who think Trump is fascist but not antisemitic. I wonder how they square that circle.
Franco was fascist but not antisemitic, and several of Mussolini's top generals were not only not Jew-haters but saved the lives of thousands of Jews in southern France and in and near other Italian-occupied areas, as well as by telling Mussolini that if he handed Jews over to the Nazis, they would overthrow him. It wasn't until the Nazis occupied Italy that Italian Jews were marked for death and murdered just for being Jews, and I understand that some important early supporters of the Italian Fascist Party were Jews.
Yeah, the relationship of Mussolini’s Italy and its Jewish community was quite complicated. Mussolini wasn’t even particularly fond of the Nazis until the UK sanctioned him over Ethiopia; before that, he viewed Dollfuss’s Austria as more of a kindred spirit than Hitler’s Germany (Austrofascism was explicitly anti-Pan-Germanism, for starters)
That's interesting. I am not familiar with Dollfuss. Was he antisemitic?
He was a student of Karl Lueger to an extent, and his whole schtick was that Austria’s identity was inseparable from its Catholicism and the role of the Habsburgs as *the* Catholic dynasty, so I’d say he was at least quite adjacent to anti-Semites and their thought processes.
But a Hitler he was most certainly not - more of a Mussolini, and indeed his most direct ideological inspiration was probably Salazar’s Portugal
There is no circle square. Fascists are not necessarily antisemites; and there are plenty of antisemites who aren’t fascists.
The increasing level of antisemitism on the left does not mean leftists are becoming fascists.
There is no increasing level of anti-Semitism on the left. That is a canard used by the right, and others, to weaponize anti-Semitism against universities and free speech generally in this country.
Out of respect for the limits of a certain topic, I will let the discussion be with my comment. If this topic wasn’t so sensitive, I could, without any reference to university protests, provide overwhelming evidence of my claim that the level of antisemitism is increasing – also on the left.
Hmm I wonder why the Jewish community has such a low view of Trump...
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/an-afrikaner-refugee-south-africa-has-thoughts-about-jews-antisemitism-trump
Laura Loomer of all people isn’t happy with Trump either.
She's only unhappy with Trump taking a $400 million 747 sized bribe from Qatar.
Actually, and much to my surprise, Laura Loomer has recently also come out with a strong defense of Medicaid. Pinching my arm: I never thought I would agree with Loomer on ... anything.
Hmm, interesting. Known Peters for over 10 years and he's never mentioned being Jewish. Mentioned many times that he was raised Catholic by an Irish Catholic adoptive father.
Whatever works, but if he starts to say he's always considered himself Muslim-adjacent, that might be a little too much.
There's a good reason why! From a 2023 article:
"I’m an adopted child. Last year, I found my Jewish biological father. In my 20s, I considered converting to Judaism, and so this discovery only confirmed something I had always known about myself on some level. I began the process of formally converting to Judaism, and joined my local congregation. I learned about the history of my ancestors, and their escape from Ukraine and Lithuania to settle here in North Lawndale. For this adoptee, I had found another home."
Also interesting. Wait until he figures out there's a mosque in IL-2.
https://archive.ph/hbTRD
WaPo: Democrats pull off an upset in Nebraska, electing Omaha’s first Black mayor
Voters denied Republican Mayor Jean Stothert a fourth term in a race overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s agenda in Washington — the latest test of attitudes in a political battleground.
Her endorsement of Trump and focus on trans issues along with Ken Martin's increased investment in red states and Blue Dot organisations seem to have helped a lot. I think Nebraska Dem chair Jane Kleeb has been smart by first tacitly supporting Dan Osborn and not dividing the non republican vote in 2024 and now this.
Why does WaPo think this is an upset? I don't think most of us expected this kind of margin, but we knew he had a shot.
They're pandering to Trump.
It's Omaha, so this isn't really an upset but if the Wapo wants to make it look like dems pulled off some huge upset then fine by me.
She was Omaha's Susan Collins, and perceived as unbeatable.
Susan Collins doesn't appeal to anti-trans prejudice, does she?
I’ve never seen any evidence of that.
Exactly. She pretends to be as moderate and unbigoted as a June day in Aroostook County is long.
Maybe also some fatigue since this would be her 4th term if she won?
Yeah, I think that was one of many factors. Sometimes voters just decide it's time to impose a non-statutory term limit!
Hell, between Stothert's weak showing in the primary and the crappy environment for Republicans, I thought Ewing was going into the election slightly favored.
Clickbait. An upset sounds more surprising, more likely to draw engagement.
I think you're right. It's irresponsible journalism, but considering how bad they've been in much more serious ways, I guess it's not that important.
Democratic candidate Lee Johnson has announced he will run against U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham next year.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/upstate-democrat-to-challenge-sen-lindsey-graham-in-2026-senate-race/ar-AA1ELOOg?ocid=BingNewsVerp
I wish him luck. SC is slowly turning purple but probably not fast enough to unseat Trump's prized butt kisser.
I didn't realize it was turning even slightly more Democratic. What are the relevant figures?
It's still pretty red from the outset. Statistics from the Independent Voter Project (as of October 2024):
Democrats: 1,052,495 (29.61%)
Republicans: 1,589,115 (44.68%)
Third Party/Other: 42,234 (1.19%)
Unaffiliated: 870,982 (24.51%)
That unaffiliated bloc is pretty significant. Without Trump on the ballot, plus new registered voters from up north migrating down South, it could go the way of Georgia in the future.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&annotations=true&map=true
South Carolina's numbers in Civiqs massive real time Trump poll has been pleasant surprise, it's consistently been +0 to +2 Trump and to the left of Florida which has also seen a huge swing and Ohio.
Only time will tell whether this translates onto the ballot.
Where did they get these numbers? SC has NO party registrations.
Oh, checked their website. From L2 modeled party. If you just switch to search their list on Georgia
D 3236594 (43.25%) R 2088321 (27.90%) O 2159395 (28.85%)!!!
Total BS.
The gem is Texas. 1.5m more democrats than republicans!
https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/tx
I don't get the sense it's trending in our direction especially now that's it's turned into a big retire spot. Adding red on top of red.
The airports in Charleston and Greenville/Spartanburg are seeing incredible growth. Not just retirees.
So more direct impact on SC-01 then, which as it so happens is more of a coastal district.
I recently read a news article which said that many young remote workers who came to Florida during the Pandemic are moving to the Carolinas and Georgia, leaving the state which also had huge outmigration last year.
Is Myrtle Beach still a big deal in that regard? It used to be all people talked about when I was growing up on the border of PA and OH in the '90s. At least one of my schoolteachers retired there.
It’s growing still just not quite at its previous pace
I'm not sure SC is trending towards us.
Presidential margins starting from 2012: R+10, R+14, R+12, R+18.
Even treating 2024 as an outlier, there's no pattern of it moving towards us. Nationally 2012-2016-2020 were all reasonably close in the popular vote margin so we cannot discount the state results based on any national variance either.
We can leave out 2012, it was before the end of the realignment of WCW voters.
Wouldn’t that make 2012 informative bc it was the beginning of the end? 2010 is when the South finally realigned completely and voted out several Dem Congressmembers representing red districts that benefited from split ticket voting.
Obama was on the ballot in 2012 while 2010 was generally a bloodbath everywhere, the shift was much more pronounced in 2016.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/County-level-changes-in-party-vote-share-in-2012-and-2016_fig2_332216797
The shift started in 2010 with the Tea Party uprising caused by us having a black POTUS. 2010 was a terrible election everywhere but it was very unique in that the Dems lost a Congress member in damn near every Southern state not just bc it was a wave, but bc it was the final realignment for them. Longtime Dem seats went down bc ticket splitting was over with for the South bc of black Obama.
To ignore 2012 is such folly. How do you explain the ending without the beginning? It started in 2010 with the Obama birth certificate crap and here we are, way too many years later still asking for that.
How did Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Georgia and others vote in 2012 compared to 2016 and 2020. The inner suburbs hadn't shifted blue and the working class hadn't left the party totally in presidential elections.
I’m not talking about the suburban/rural realignment, I’m talking about the Southern realignment that began back in 1964 and concluded in 2012. Lots of action going on in the South but down ballot.
Which, I spose that helps your point that 2012 doesn’t matter when comparing 2016, 2020 and 2024. But if we’re going to talk about South Carolina, well the steadiness of their electoral history the past few decades just goes to show how the realignments have done very little to the top lines. Lots of shifting but not much budging.
Didn't the southern realignment begin in 1964 federally, accelerate in the 1994 Republican revolution and 2000 Presidential election. By 2010, Democrats lost control of all state legislatures in the South. The tea party was the final nail in the coffin, yes.
I think the biggest factor in 2012 wasn't WCW realignment, it was the wildly outsized turnout advantage of black voters compared to white that year. It wasn't that white conservatives voted Obama in 2012....they just didn't show up to vote at all.
I think another which was stated by some analysts was that Mormonism and being a part of the coastal elite among other reasons isn't looked favourably among those voters. Mormonism has one of the least national favourability among other religions.
Hovering around 16-17pt to the right of the whole country?
Agreed, it’s not. 2 equal trends causing a stasis. Rurals, exurbs and conservative retirees moving the state right with the cities, suburbs and minorities moving the state left. Until Democrats hit rock bottom or reverse the trend and go up in the exurbs/rural areas it’ll be very difficult for the party to win statewide.
Is SC-01 being where the changing purple trends are happening?
I know Jim Clyburn has the bluest district of SC and SC-01 is a Lean GOP district. As far as everywhere else in the state, last I checked it’s red to the core.
What is going on with Keisha Lance Bottoms? She is apparently producing a TV show for Tyler Perry but is also saying she will announce for Governor soon. Is she serious about running or is this talk of running just publicity for her show?
https://www.wabe.org/former-atlanta-mayor-keisha-lance-bottoms-producing-netflix-political-comedy-series-with-tyler-perry/
Here's hoping Matt Dunlap follows through with running for ME-2, regardless of what Jared Golden does-we really don't need people like Golden in Congress-he's literally no better than a Republican.
You keep saying this absurd bullshit, but repeating an untruth over and over again with great conviction doesn't make it one iota truer.
Oh please, he’s way better than a Republican.
Get back to us if and when Golden votes for the GOP's "big, beautiful" reconciliation bill. Until then, piss off with this crap.
Campaign literature may tell you what the politician wants to tell you and exclude other things you should know, but it can be a damn good way to find out that you don't support someone. Case in point: a volunteer for Zohran Mamdani's campaign for Mayor of New York came to my building to canvass. I didn't have time to talk to him, but he put a flyer under my door. Here's what it says:
"As mayor, he will:
*Freeze the rent for rent-stabilized tenants & stand up to bad landlords
*Build 200,000 new affordable homes
*Deliver universal, no cost childcare
*Make buses fast and free"
Now, like Mamdani, I am a democratic socialist. However, unlike him, I am a realist, and I don't fall for promises of pie in the sky. I'm a rent-stabilized tenant, but realistically, since landlords have much greater expenses as a result of inflation, freezing rent is absurd! And with that policy, you are going to build 200,000 new affordable homes how? Making buses free is a great idea, though subways should then be free, too, but with what money does he think he'll do that and also pay for childcare for every child who needs it?
To sum up, Mamdani is not going to get one of my top votes (I have up to 5 in this ranked-choice primary). His heart seems to be in the right place, but to put it bluntly, my brain is in my head, not my ass. If he really turns out to be the main opposition to Adams and Cuomo, New York City is in deep shit, because a wild-eyed extremist like this is not going to win.
Then you won’t like the results of the Marist poll released today, which shows Mamdani in a solid second place, though nowhere near overtaking Cuomo.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/nyc-mayors-race-may-2025/
I know about that poll. I want to say it's still early, but the primary is next month.
think andrew will be in mayor cuomo's cabinet?
You mean Chris?
yes...a senior moment!
A Democratic Socialist and he doesn’t make your top 5? Does Cuomo? I guess it depends on your definition of democratic socialist.
I said he won't get one of my top votes. Somewhere between 3 and 5 might be possible for him, but I'd rather not vote for this guy. Cuomo and Adams won't get a vote from me at all.
Adrienne Adams? I presume Eric Adams doesn't reappear until the general election.
And ideologically, while Mamdani may talk a big game that may earn him plaudits and votes from the left, most recent elections (primary and general) don't suggest that most NY voters are particularly eager for "democratic socialism" or left/progressive experiments, however worthy the goals.
Hence the crooks and mediocrities they’ve elected city and statewide.
Face it, a competent not-very-left candidate like Kathryn Garcia, who almost won last time, is much more likely to win than a pie-in-the-sky guy pretending he can square circles and that NYC has an unlimited budget. NYC is just not very leftist.
Kathryn Garcia would have made an excellent Mayor, even by NYC’s abysmal standards
Yes, she would have been so much better! I think she might have actually done a good job!
Perhaps a dumb question, but why didn’t she run again this time? She seemed like a near guarantee “not Cuomo” solidified vote consolidator in this primary as the “good enough vote” from moderates to progressives had she run again. Whereas this split field is a disaster waiting to happen.
To be clear: I don’t think Cuomo would do a terrible job as mayor, he’s definitely got the experience to run such a complex city (even though I will very much disagree with many of his policies), but I REALLY don’t like Democrats setting the same expectations for the party as the Republicans where sexual violence/assault/harassment isn’t an automatic disqualifier. Once that can is opened, we can’t ever seal it back up.
I absolutely don't trust Cuomo to do a good job. I certainly don't think he would serve the average New Yorker well. Remember that he worked to weaken the Democratic Party and prop up the Republicans. As for why Kathryn Garcia didn't run again, I have no idea, and I don't know why no-one seems to have asked her. I've heard absolutely nothing about her during this election season.