Morning Digest: Join us for our election night livestream at 7 PM ET!
The Downballot partners with G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers for top-notch coverage
Leading Off
Tonight, starting at 7 PM ET, we invite you to tune into The Downballot’s livestream for our coverage of all of the top elections of 2025!
David Nir and David Beard, the co-hosts of our weekly podcast, will be joined by G. Elliott Morris of the essential data and polling site Strength In Numbers to discuss and analyze the returns as they come in.
You’ll find our livestream at this link, or you can download the free Substack app either for iOS or for Android to get notified the moment we go live. We’ll be answering questions from paid subscribers, so if you’d like to participate in our Q&A, now is an excellent time to upgrade!
We’ve also published a number of additional resources to help you make the most of election night.
First, you’ll want to check out our preview of all the key races—some 40 in total in 16 different states.
The Davids also ran down the most notable contests on the most recent episode of The Downballot podcast, and Nir took questions from viewers on his weekly live video show with Aaron Rupar.
You’ll also want to bookmark our live tracker of all the top elections, which we’ll keep updated throughout the night—and beyond, if needed!
If you want to keep close tabs on the most competitive legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia, we have a tracker with complete details on each seat (note that each state has its own tab).
Of course, there’s our famous Big Board for following special elections. There are several dozen on the ballot Tuesday, including 16 featuring Democratic vs. Republican matchups.
In addition, you can join in the conversation with The Downballot’s phenomenal community on our private Discord server, which is always a ton of fun. We’ll also have an open thread on our site for those who want to follow the results in comments.
And finally, if you haven’t yet entered our annual election prediction contest, time is running out! All entries must be received by 5 PM ET if you want a shot at winning delicious babka from our sponsor, Green’s Bakery.
See you tonight!
Senate
AK-Sen, AK-Gov, AK-AL
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola narrowly edges out Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 46-45 in a hypothetical matchup, the Democratic pollster Data for Progress finds.
The results of this poll, which DFP tells Alaska Public Media was not done for a client, are a mirror image of the 46-45 lead for Sullivan that the firm found in August. An October survey from Alaska Survey Research, which is run by Democratic pollster Ivan Moore, placed Peltola ahead 48-46.
DFP, meanwhile, continues to show her far better positioned ahead of a potential race for governor.
The firm’s new survey initially sees Peltola taking 41% in a packed race to succeed Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy; operative Bernadette Wilson narrowly outpaces former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, a fellow Republican, 10-9 for second, while six other GOP candidates each take 6% or less. The survey did not include former state Sen. Tom Begich, a Democrat who launched his campaign in August but says he’d drop out if Peltola runs.
The pollster, which also asked respondents to rank their choices, finds Peltola clearing a majority with 51% in a hypothetical fourth round of tabulations, with Bronson and Wilson respectively taking 14% and 13%. Peltola also outpaces Bronson 67-33 after all the other candidates are eliminated from contention and their supporters’ votes are redistributed based on how they ranked the finalists.
(Alaska’s election system works somewhat differently. Only the four candidates who win the most votes in next August’s primary will advance to the general election, and voters will only then be asked to rank those finalists.)
These new numbers come as Peltola continues to keep everyone guessing whether she’ll run against Sullivan or campaign to succeed Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who cannot seek a third term next year. The Last Frontier’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 1, so it may be a while yet before she makes her plans known.
But while DFP shows Peltola in a far better position if she enters the gubernatorial race, Moore doubts she’d so easily bypass her many GOP opponents after they have time to get their names out.
“[T]he idea that this is going to be a cake walk and she can just stroll into the governor’s office is misguided,” he told Alaska Public Media. “She’s just streaks ahead of everyone else because she’s built this following, but it’s not going to be the same in a year.”
DFP, finally, finds GOP Rep. Nick Begich with a 48-37 edge over pastor Matt Schultz, a Democrat who announced his campaign last month. Begich, who unseated Peltola last year, is Tom Begich’s nephew.
GA-Sen, GA-Gov
While far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said earlier this year she wouldn’t run for Senate or governor, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that some Republican activists think she might wind up seeking a promotion after all.
Greene, who did not respond to the paper’s request for comment, has not publicly indicated that she’s rethinking her decision to eschew a challenge to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff or pass on the open race to lead Georgia. The AJC, though, writes that “buzz is growing anyway, fueled by her increasingly sharp attacks on fellow Republicans” like Speaker Mike Johnson.
MA-Sen
Sen. Ed Markey leads Rep. Seth Moulton 51-28 in next September’s Democratic primary for Senate in Massachusetts, according to a new poll from YouGov and UMass Amherst. This survey, which was conducted on behalf of WCVB-TV, is the first poll anyone has released since Moulton launched his campaign last month.
The poll also finds Rep. Ayanna Pressley in third place when she’s included as an option. Markey leads Moulton by a smaller 35-25 spread in this scenario, with Pressley taking 21%.
The congresswoman has not ruled out challenging Markey, but she’s taken no obvious steps toward running.
House
AZ-05
Donald Trump on Monday evening endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who already was favored in next year’s Republican primary for Arizona’s open 5th District, a conservative constituency outside of Phoenix.
Trump also used his Truth Social post to urge Jay Feely, a former Arizona Cardinals kicker who is campaigning here, to “run in a different district, or for a different office.” Trump, though, did not elaborate on where he hopes Feely winds up.
CA-11
A number of Democrats in California and Washington believe that Rep. Nancy Pelosi will retire after almost four decades representing San Francisco in Congress, NBC reports.
The network says that Pelosi, 85, intensified the chatter recently when she joked to her colleagues that she’d like to be able to watch Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries be sworn in as speaker in 2027—”if she’s still allowed on the floor” of the House.
Not everyone, though, believes that the speaker emerita is about to end her groundbreaking career.
“My sense is she runs again for many reasons. She should hang it up, but I think she thinks the caucus needs her,” an unnamed former leadership aide said. “I also think she wants to be part of history if Leader Jeffries rises to become the first Black speaker of the House after the midterm election.”
A Pelosi spokesperson responded to NBC’s story by reiterating that the former speaker “is fully focused” on Tuesday’s election to pass a new House map, adding that “discussion of her future plans beyond that mission is pure speculation.” The same aide also quoted the Taoist proverb, “Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.”
CO-08
Amie Baca-Oehlert, who is the former head of Colorado’s largest teachers union, said Friday that she was dropping out of the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Gabe Evans.
Baca-Oehlert, who struggled to raise money, left the race weeks after former Rep. Yadira Caraveo ended her own campaign to retake the swingy 8th District. The Democratic field now consists of four notable candidates: state Reps. Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel, Marine veteran Evan Munsing, and state Treasurer Dave Young.
IA-01
Donald Trump on Saturday endorsed Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an Iowa Republican who faces the same pair of opponents who gave her a tough time in last year’s primary and general elections.
Miller-Meeks won renomination by an unimpressive 56-44 margin against David Pautsch, a conservative Christian activist whom she outspent by a wide margin. Pautsch, who launched his second effort by blasting the incumbent as a “Trump hater,” ended September with just $9,000 available, compared to $2.6 million for Miller-Meeks.
The congresswoman’s main Democratic rival, meanwhile, is once again former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who held the Republican to a 50.0 to 49.8 win as Trump was carrying the 1st District 54-45. (Miller-Meeks previously beat Bohannan 53-47 in 2022.)
Bohannan finished the most recent fundraising quarter with $1.6 million, which was more than four times the $350,000 that her nearest primary foe, attorney Taylor Wettach, had on hand. Wettach is arguing that Democrats would benefit from having a new nominee.
IL-04
In a move apparently designed to pave the way for a top aide to enter Congress with minimal opposition, Democratic Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia will reportedly end his reelection campaign, the Chicago Sun-Times reported shortly after candidate filing closed in Illinois on Monday evening.
Garcia, 69, had shown no indication that he was looking to leave after four terms and even filed petitions last week to appear on the March 17 primary ballot for the safely blue 4th District.
Political observers were therefore surprised when Patty Garcia, who is the congressman’s chief of staff, filed her own petitions at the very last possible moment on Monday at 5 PM local time. (The two Garcias are not related.)
The Sun-Times soon reported that the incumbent would move to keep his name off the ballot, leaving Patty Garcia with no opposition for the all-important Democratic nomination. The congressman himself benefited from similar maneuvering at the start of his own House career, though neither Garcia commented publicly after Monday’s news broke.
This is far from the first time, though, that an incumbent has timed their retirement to ensure that a preferred successor avoids serious opposition.
In one recent example, Republican Rep. Bill Posey of Florida ended his own reelection campaign last year immediately after former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos filed paperwork right at the deadline. The two did not deny colluding, and Haridopolos, as planned, easily won both the GOP primary and general election.
A few states have laws in place that try to prevent this sort of collusion. In Nebraska, for example, all incumbents are required to file two weeks before everyone else, even if they’re running for a different office than the one they currently hold. Just last year, Oregon adopted a similar law mandating that incumbents seeking reelection file a week earlier.
California, meanwhile, automatically extends the candidate filing deadline by five days in races where an incumbent chooses not to run for reelection. Missouri, similarly, reopens its filing period in contests where any candidate, incumbent or otherwise, withdraws within two business days of the original deadline.
There’s no such provision in Illinois, though, and Patty Garcia is now all but assured election in a Chicago-area constituency that, according to calculations by The Downballot, backed Kamala Harris 63-35.
And while Chuy Garcia may have just pulled the ultimate backroom maneuver, he became a force during his decades-long career in Chicago as an opponent of the old-line establishment.
Garcia, who immigrated from Mexico as a child, got involved in local politics in the 1980s as an ally of Harold Washington, the city’s first Black mayor.
He later rose to become a member of the Cook County Board of Commissioners and attracted national attention in 2015 when he unexpectedly forced Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who was the heavy favorite to win a second term, into a runoff. Garcia rallied national progressives who had long distrusted the more centrist incumbent, but Emanuel ultimately won 56-44.
Garcia got another chance at a promotion three years later when longtime Rep. Luis Gutierrez announced his retirement less than a week before filing closed and endorsed the commissioner as his successor. Gutierrez’s declaration left his would-be successors with barely enough time to get on the ballot, but Garcia had no trouble replacing Gutierrez.
In 2023, Garcia waged a second campaign for mayor, this time against embattled incumbent Lori Lightfoot. But while he initially looked like a favorite to at least move on to the second round, neither he nor Lightfoot ended up advancing. Garcia ultimately supported progressive Brandon Johnson ahead of his tight victory in the general election over a more moderate opponent.
TN-07
Another Democratic poll of the Dec. 2 special election for Tennessee’s conservative 7th District finds Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn, but this one comes with a plea asking Behn supporters to help boost a different candidate.
The survey, conducted by Impact Research for an obscure group called Your Community PAC, gives Van Epps a 52-44 advantage—very similar to a recent Behn internal from Workbench Strategy that put Van Epps up 51-41.
At the end of its memo, though, Impact adds, “Elevating an Independent candidate with contrast makes Behn more competitive.” The pollster specifically highlights Jon Thorp, an Army veteran who originally launched a bid as a Republican before dropping out of the primary to run in the general election as an unaffiliated candidate.
Thorp, says Impact, currently received just 1% of the vote, but the firm argues that elevating his profile would eat into Van Epps’ share. Democrats have occasionally tried such gambits in other difficult races and have sometimes succeeded (former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, for instance, benefited from efforts to promote Libertarians). For such an effort to work, though, Behn would likely need a deep-pocketed third-party group to step in.
WI-07
State Rep. Calvin Callahan has announced that he will not run to succeed Rep. Tom Tiffany, a fellow Republican who is running for governor of Wisconsin, in the conservative 7th District.
I took a year off of politics after 2024, and that one year mark is today. I'm not sure how much I will be active in my return, but we shall see.
It’s time for that wonderful Election Day tradition: anecdotal turnout reports!!!
It was a 30-minute wait to vote here in bluey-blue DeKalb County, Georgia, with the PSC seats the only things on the ballot. Granted, a big part of the wait was that they have many fewer than normal voting sites since it’s an off-off year election.