New Hampshire Republican John Sununu (credit: John Sununu campaign website)
Leading Off
NH-Sen
John Sununu announced Wednesday that he would run to reclaim the Senate seat he lost all the way back in 2008, and prominent national Republicans were quick to consolidate behind him.
“The @NRSC is all-in for @SununuSenator!” tweeted Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator who leads the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. The well-funded Senate Leadership Fund also backed Sununu, who is both the older brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and also the son and namesake of another ex-governor.
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But one vocal New Hampshire Republican wasn’t deterred by the ex-senator’s entry into the race to succeed retiring incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat who unseated Sununu 17 years ago.
“Anyone who thinks that a never-Trump, corporate lobbyist who hasn’t won an election in a quarter century will resonate with today’s GOP primary voters is living in a different universe,” former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who began running in June, told the Washington Examiner just before Sununu’s launch. Brown, whose last victory was in the 2010 special election for Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, has never won office in New Hampshire.
But the former Bay State politician, who lost to Shaheen in 2014 despite a favorable climate for his party, argued that he’s nonetheless the best pick for Republicans in next September’s primary.
“While John was supporting John Kasich in 2016, I was campaigning with Donald Trump,” he argued. “While John was wooing the DC establishment this summer, I have been working with grassroots activists across the Granite State.”
“I stopped one political dynasty before,” Brown added, “and I intend to do the same in 2026.”
Sununu’s backers, though, doubt that Brown can sell himself as a MAGA loyalist. While Brown did serve as ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during the first Trump administration, his intraparty critics haven’t forgiven him for insisting in 2021 that Trump “bears responsibility” for the Jan. 6 riot.
Sununu’s backers also believe he’ll put up a stronger fight against Rep. Chris Pappas, the likely Democratic nominee. Last week, Senate Republicans circulated a memo highlighting polls that show Sununu trailing Pappas by anywhere from 2 to 6 points as Brown loses by double digits. While those surveys agree that Sununu is still losing, the memo argues he’s “uniquely positioned to win.”
But as Brown was quick to point out, it’s been more than two decades since Sununu, who was once one of the most prominent Republicans in the state, won anything.
Sununu emerged on the political scene in 1996 when, at the age of 32, he prevailed in a hotly contested U.S. House race, an outcome that ensured his family’s influence would continue into the next generation. (Sununu is often identified as “John E. Sununu” to distinguish him from former Gov. John H. Sununu, who achieved national prominence as George H.W. Bush’s first White House chief of staff.)
The congressman later waged a successful primary challenge in 2002 against Sen. Bob Smith, who had temporarily abandoned the GOP to run for president as an independent, before he dug in for a tough general election against then-Gov. Shaheen.
George W. Bush’s popularity in the aftermath of 9/11 and the lead-up to the Iraq War helped propel Sununu to a 51-46 victory over Shaheen in what proved to be her only loss at the ballot box during her long career. Multiple Republicans were later implicated for their involvement in a plot to jam Democratic phone lines to disrupt the pro-Shaheen get-out-the-vote operation, with several sentenced to prison.
Bush, though, was anything but an asset for Sununu in his 2008 rematch against Shaheen. Democrats relentlessly tied the senator to the now-reviled president, including a … memorable song dubbing the incumbent “Bununu.”
Shaheen this time prevailed 52-45, a decisive result that appeared to mark the end of Sununu’s political career. Maryland Democrat Barbara Mikulski even used the lame-duck session of Congress to upbraid Sununu for objecting to a bill she proposed by snarking, “Boy, am I sorry that is the last act of John Sununu in the Senate.”
Over the next 17 years, Sununu did nothing to disprove Mikulski’s take. The former senator, who went on to join several corporate boards, kept a relatively low profile as his brother, Chris, became the top Republican in the state and won four straight two-year terms as governor.
On the rare occasions Sununu stepped back into the political world, it was chiefly to endorse presidential primary candidates who wound up losing to Trump. In 2016, he supported then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s doomed campaign, while last year, he backed Nikki Haley’s failed effort to stop Trump and penned an op-ed in the Union Leader titled, “Donald Trump is a loser.”
He wasn’t even the GOP’s first-choice Sununu. Republican power-brokers had long sought to recruit Chris as a Senate candidate, but after he repeatedly turned them down, they instead turned to John.
The ex-senator, though, had nothing at all to say about Trump in his launch video on Wednesday.
“I’d be honored to have your support and return to the Senate to help calm the waters,” Sununu tells the audience. “The New Hampshire way needs to be the American way.”
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The Downballot Podcast
Justin Kanew’s inside scoop on TN’s big special election
Democrats have the chance to pull off a huge upset in an upcoming special election in Tennessee, so we invited one of the best-known political analysts in the state to join us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to give us the inside scoop: Justin Kanew, founder of the Tennessee Holler. Kanew, who ran for the previous version of the 7th District, explains how the district has changed since his campaign and tells us what Democrat Aftyn Behn needs to do to win over the conservative-leaning voters she’ll need in order to prevail.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into North Carolina’s latest Republican gerrymander, which is even more extreme than their last map. Can Democrat Don Davis survive despite the GOP’s effort to target him? Which district might he run for? And why can’t Gov. Josh Stein veto the new map? We answer all these questions and more.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Redistricting Roundup
CA Redistricting
Conservative donors appear to have given up trying to defeat next month’s ballot measure that would redraw California’s congressional map.
AdImpact reported on Wednesday that groups urging a “no” vote on Proposition 50 have spent all of $341,000 on advertising since Oct. 12, compared to $26.8 million for the “yes” side.
Californians may see even less from Republicans before the Nov. 4 vote. AdImpact says that Proposition 50’s opponents have just $9,000 reserved for the remainder of the campaign—and no, we didn’t leave out any zeroes—to counter the nearly $10 million booked by Democrats.
IN Redistricting
Rodric Bray, the top Republican in the Indiana Senate, said on Wednesday through a spokesperson that there’s insufficient support among his caucus to pass a new congressional gerrymander, but Donald Trump continues to push.
“The votes aren’t there for redistricting,” a Bray aide said in a statement first reported by Politico’s Adam Wren.
According to an unnamed GOP source who spoke with Wren, though, the White House “expects it will have the votes as it already does in the House, and it expects it to be put up for a vote.” A different anonymous Republican said the leaders in the lower chamber now have the necessary votes, though House Speaker Todd Huston has not confirmed that publicly.
NC Redistricting
North Carolina’s Republican-dominated state House approved the GOP’s new congressional gerrymander on Wednesday, following the same action by their counterparts in the state Senate a day earlier.
The map makes changes to just two districts: the 1st, represented by Democrat Don Davis, and the 3rd, served by Republican Greg Murphy. The 1st, which voted for Donald Trump by a 51-48 margin under the old lines, would instead have given him a 55-44 win. The 3rd, by contrast, would see Trump’s margin shrink from 60-39 to 56-43. Davis has said he will seek reelection and could run in either district.
Senate
LA-Sen
Republican state Rep. Julie Emerson filed paperwork with the FEC over the weekend to allow her to raise money for a possible primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy. Emerson told NOLA.com in August that she was waiting to see if Rep. Julia Letlow, whom she’s close to, decides to oppose Cassidy before making up her own mind. Letlow still has yet to reveal her plans.
Governors
FL-Gov, FL Agriculture Commissioner
Donald Trump on Wednesday endorsed Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson for reelection, a move that came less than two weeks after Simpson once again declined to rule out running for governor.
Simpson, however, seemed to take Trump’s not-so-subtle hint that he should stay where he is. The commissioner shared Trump’s message on social media and wrote, “I am incredibly honored to have President Trump’s support as we continue working to make Florida safer, more affordable and the envy of the nation.”
IL-Gov
Wealthy businessman Rick Heidner filed paperwork with the state on Tuesday to seek the Republican nomination for governor of Illinois and self-funded $1 million to launch his effort.
Heidner needs to collect 5,000 valid signatures ahead of the Nov. 3 filing deadline to secure a spot on the March 17 primary ballot. Whether or not Heidner makes it, though, the eventual GOP nominee will have a tough time against Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker in this blue state.
WI-Gov
Wealthy Wisconsin businessman Tim Michels remains interested in seeking the GOP nod for a second campaign for governor, conservative radio host Dan O’Donnell said Tuesday. Michels, who met with Donald Trump, according to O’Donnell, has yet to publicly confirm that he might try to succeed retiring incumbent Tony Evers, who beat him 51-48 in 2022.
House
AZ-05
Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced Wednesday that he would run to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs, a fellow Republican who is running for governor, in Arizona’s conservative 5th District.
Lamb starts his new campaign as the favorite. A firm called NextGenP has released multiple polls showing him far ahead of his many opponents in August’s primary, and no one has responded with contradictory numbers.
Lamb also begins with the support of state Sen. Jake Hoffman, the chair of the state’s branch of the Freedom Caucus. Hoffman, one of the Grand Canyon State’s most influential far-right figures, had reportedly considered running himself earlier this year.
Lamb first rose to prominence in 2016 when he was first elected as the top lawman for Pinal County, a reliably Republican bastion between Phoenix and Tucson, on the same evening that Joe Arpaio lost reelection as sheriff in neighboring Maricopa County.
Lamb, who took Arpaio’s place on national TV as an anti-immigration hawk, later reacted to the Jan. 6 riots by telling a pro-Trump rally that took place that same day, “This is about the other issues that have happened—the Hillary Clintons that have gone unpunished.”
The sheriff left office following his loss to Lake, who would lose the general election to Democrat Ruben Gallego, and went on to create a consulting group. The Arizona Mirror writes that Lamb’s new professional activities include “making AI videos of Bigfoot directed at members of law enforcement and the military looking to start their own business.”
Lamb joins a busy GOP primary field that includes former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely, former state Rep. Travis Grantham, and wealthy construction contractor Daniel Keenan. The winner will be favored in the 5th District, a suburban Phoenix constituency that Trump carried 59-39 last year.
AZ-07
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes followed through on her threat last week to bring legal action if House Speaker Mike Johnson persisted in refusing to seat Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva by filing a lawsuit on Tuesday asking a federal court to allow Grijalva to be sworn in.
In her complaint, Mayes argues that Johnson “may not use his statutory obligation to administer the oath” of office “to arbitrarily delay seating a member when there is no dispute as to the election or qualifications and no practical reason why he is unable to administer the oath.”
Johnson’s refusal to seat Grijalva, she says, harms Grijalva by preventing her from doing the job that the people of Arizona’s 7th District elected her to perform. It also injures the state, she adds, by depriving it of the full complement of nine House members to which it’s entitled under the law.
Rather than ask that Johnson be ordered to swear in Grijalva, Mayes wants the court to rule that someone else can do so, arguing that the oath of office may be administered “by any person authorized by law to administer oaths.”
CA-03, CA-06
Democratic Rep. Ami Bera tells Politico’s Lindsey Holden that he’s more interested in running for the proposed 3rd District than the 6th District if California voters green-light a new congressional map on Nov. 4.
Bera, who represents the current 6th District in the Sacramento area, said that such a move would set off a “clash of the titans” between himself and Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley. Two notable Democrats, Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall and former state Rep. Richard Pan, are currently opposing Kiley in the 3rd, which would become much more Democratic if Proposition 50 passes.
Kiley, for his part, told Holden he was focused on defeating the ballot measure and avoided saying where he’d run should his effort fail. The proposed 3rd would have favored Kamala Harris 55-44, which would make it tough for Kiley or any other Republican to defend.
A Bera vs. Kiley battle, though, would set off an open-seat race for the revamped 6th, which would have backed Harris by a similar 54-45 margin. Holden mentions two Democrats, state Sen. Angelique Ashby and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, as possible contenders, though neither has publicly expressed interest yet. Ashby instead told Holden that “[t]he focus should be on Prop 50 right now,” while Ho did not respond.
CA-11
State Sen. Scott Wiener announced Wednesday that he would run to represent San Francisco in the U.S. House rather than waiting for Rep. Nancy Pelosi to reveal whether she’ll seek reelection.
Pelosi, 85, recently told the San Francisco Examiner that she would not disclose her plans until after California holds its Nov. 4 vote on whether to implement a new congressional map. Wiener, though, informed the New York Times‘ Heather Knight that he felt he couldn’t wait on the speaker emerita any longer.
Wiener, 55, avoided criticizing Pelosi or suggesting that his fellow Democrat was too old to keep serving the dark-blue 11th District. He wasn’t so deferential to their mutual opponent, though.
The senator told Knight that Saikat Chakrabarti, a wealthy Democratic activist who began running against Pelosi in February, “has so little connection to San Francisco and really never did anything in San Francisco before he started running for Congress.” He added that Chakrabarti, who self-funded over $700,000 through September, “is trying to buy the seat.”
Chakrabarti, who served as campaign manager for now-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during her 2018 upset victory in New York City, responded by telling Knight that he’d lived in San Francisco since 2009.
Chakrabarti, 39, also argued that Wiener, who has served in the Senate since 2016, was incapable of delivering much-needed change. He argued in a statement that while Wiener “has experience tinkering with regulations in an overwhelmingly Democratic Sacramento,” his time as AOC’s first chief of staff gave him “experience turning big ideas into reality even in a gridlocked Congress.”
Wiener, who would be the first gay person to represent San Francisco in the House, has spent years preparing to run to succeed Pelosi and ended last month with almost $870,000 banked.
Chakrabarti, for his part, had just under $100,000 available, but his fortune gives him the means to replenish his war chest at will. Business Insider said in August that Chakrabarti, an early employee at the payment processing giant Stripe, is worth at least $167 million.
A multitude of other San Francisco Democrats have been talked about as possible candidates to replace Pelosi, though they seem inclined to wait for her to announce her eventual retirement—whenever that might be. Such chatter is sure to intensify after Nov. 4 as just about everyone in politics stands by to see whether the only woman who has ever led the House decides to wrap up her groundbreaking career.
Poll Pile
LA-Sen (R): JMC Analytics and Polling (R) for John Fleming: John Fleming: 25, Bill Cassidy (inc): 23, Others: 17; Fleming: 40, Cassidy (inc): 29
MI-Gov (D): Impact Research (D) for Jocelyn Benson: Jocelyn Benson: 56, Garlin Gilchrist: 17, Chris Swanson: 5
Virginia Democrats considering redistricting in early next year, possibly netting 2-3 seats.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/us/politics/virginia-democrats-redistrict.html
NYC Mayor - Adams endorses Cuomo, a major move in the race that will net him about 10 votes.
https://apnews.com/article/eric-adams-cuomo-mamdani-nyc-mayor-f7f8513ee54575ef82ebc339fb7dab89