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Kildere53's avatar

Several times recently, I’ve expressed opposition to Illinois Democrats attempting to squeeze another seat out of their state by drawing a 15D-2R gerrymander. This has been mostly out of concern that such a redraw could jeopardize existing seats, and from the belief that the existing map is already a maximalist gerrymander.

However, I recently took a closer look at the map and found that several Democratic-leaning areas had been excluded from Democratic districts. And the current Illinois map still has one district – the 7th – that is not taking part in the gerrymander at all (at Harris +64), and could be unpacked. Therefore, I decided to see if it actually was possible to draw a 15D-2R map in Illinois where all the Democratic seats are at least as safe as they currently are, if not more so.

And? It actually is possible… but it requires a pretty epic baconmander of Chicago to achieve it. If you haven’t eaten bacon recently, I’d suggest grabbing some before looking at this map, because the map certainly involves a hell of a lot of it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/db4ab6f5-baa8-49c3-ad1e-92a2339db9fc

I was able to slightly shore up some of the closer districts, with Sorenson’s district moving from Harris +5 to +7, Underwood’s district moving from +5 to +10, and Casten’s district moving from +6 to +10. Budzinski’s, Foster’s, and Krishnamoorthi’s districts see very little partisan change.

Darin LaHood’s district, unsurprisingly, is the one that gets shredded on this map. The Republican areas of his hometown of Peoria are mostly added to Mary Miller’s already deep-red district, while a few of them are added to Jonathan Jackson’s district (which now stretches almost to Galesburg). His district is still 50% Black and Harris +24. This is achieved by pushing Danny Davis’s 7th south to take in some heavily Republican suburban areas like Frankfort, Homer Glen, and New Lenox, but it’s still Harris +30. Rockford is added to Krishnamoorthi’s district, while the portion of LaHood’s district along the Wisconsin border is included in Brad Schneider’s Waukegan-based district (which now includes Evanston as well and is still Harris +20). The rest of Chicago’s northern and northwestern suburbs are baconmandered out from the North Side.

Now, I don’t know if Illinois Democrats will have the stomach to draw a map like this. It’s significantly more gerrymandered even than the current map – the current map has Democratic districts stretching from Chicagoland to “only” Danville and Spring Valley, while this map has districts stretching all the way to the Galesburg area and the Mississippi River. But a map like this is clearly possible, and should definitely be considered by Illinois Democrats as a way to counteract Republican gerrymandering in other states.

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Amon Greycastle's avatar

PA-01: D internal for Bob Harvie, 41-41 tie with Fitzpatrick.

https://x.com/riley_rogerson/status/1978595188034375732

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