Morning Digest: House Democrat launches bid for 15th term despite four primary challengers

"Generational change is fine, but you've got to earn it," says embattled incumbent

Democratic Rep. John Larson is seeking another term in the House seat he first won in 1998 (credit: John Larson Facebook)

Leading Off

CT-01

Democratic Rep. John Larson kicked off his campaign for a 15th term on Friday, an event he's hoping will silence any lingering chatter suggesting he might retire.

The 77-year-old Larson, who was twice filmed this year freezing mid-sentence, faces multiple challengers in the Aug. 11 primary in Connecticut's safely blue 1st District. But the congressman, who hasn't faced any serious opposition since he was first elected in 1998, believes he remains the best person to represent the Hartford area.

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"I'll let the people decide whether or not they think age is a factor," he told reporters at his launch. "I think people do think experience matters. It isn't the time you're there, it's what you do while you're there, and what you produce for the district."

But Larson's intraparty opponents—who are all decades younger—believe that the 1st District needs new representation.

"I'm not running for Congress as a referendum on John Larson—I'm running because Congress as a whole isn't listening to the voices of everyday people and has failed to deliver the change families need," state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest said in a statement following Larson's event. "We can't keep expecting the same people to do better next time."

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin was more pointed.

"While I have an enormous amount of respect for John Larson, I don’t think John Larson recognizes the moment that we’re in," Bronin told reporters after the congressman's kickoff. "Voters don’t want empty promises. They don’t want to be misled. Voters want to see that we recognize that if we’re going to deliver the things that our country needs, we have to build a different kind of political movement."

Two other notable Democrats are also hoping to unseat the incumbent: Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune, whose July announcement made her the first to join the race, and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry, who has pledged to self-fund $500,000.

Larson's primary battle comes at a time when other Democratic elected officials in their 70s and 80s are facing renewed pressure to retire.

Several have opted to move on, announcing that they would leave office and make way for younger figures. New York Rep. Jerry Nadler, 78, told the New York Times earlier this month, "Watching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that."

Larson, though, believes his situation is different.

"Generational change is fine, but you've got to earn it," the Connecticut Democrat argued to Axios. "It's not like, 'Oh geez, you know what, why didn't I think of that? Now's the time for me to step down because, well, it's generational change!'"

The presence of so many challengers will likely make it easier for Larson to win renomination with just a plurality of the vote, even if a majority of primary voters think it's time for someone new. The state's difficult ballot access rules could, however, yield a smaller ballot.

Candidates need to win at least 15% of the vote at next year's party convention to ensure they have a spot in the primary.

Anyone who fails to hit this threshold can forge ahead by collecting signatures from 2% of the district's registered Democrats. However, that amounts to around 4,000 signatures, and campaigns would have just 42 days to gather them—a major logistical challenge that not every contender may be able to meet.

If any of Larson's opponents make it through this gauntlet, though, the incumbent will be in for a new experience. Connecticut Public Radio writes that Larson has never had an opponent on the primary ballot in any of his reelection campaigns.

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Redistricting Roundup

IN Redistricting

Far-right U.S. Sen. Jim Banks is trying to ratchet up pressure on fellow Republicans in the Indiana legislature to pass a new congressional gerrymander by invoking the death of Charlie Kirk, though they seem to be unmoved.

"They killed Charlie Kirk—the least that we can do is go through a legal process and redistrict Indiana into a nine-to-zero map," Banks told Politico's Adam Wren at a political gathering he hosted over the weekend. "And I sense it in this crowd, in a big way. And I sense it from supporters all over the state; that now's not the time to back off. Now's not the time to be nice. Now's the time to engage in a peaceful and political way."

The senator did not specify an antecedent for "they," but Republicans across the country have sought to blame Democrats and the left broadly for Kirk's killing, even though the motives of his shooter remain opaque. Banks may, however, be the first to call for gerrymandering as a response.

But other Republicans still remain reluctant. According to Wren, House Speaker Todd Huston and Senate President Rodric Bray "have been holding behind-closed-doors caucuses to take the temperature of their members," and the reading appears to be cool. Unnamed sources tell Wren that "Huston hasn't taken a vote on the matter and Bray's Senate is said to have not made much headway."

A wide array of GOP lawmakers of varying stripes previously came out against a mid-decade redraw, despite an aggressive White House push.

Election Night

Special Elections

Three months after Democrat Melissa Hortman's assassination, her seat in the Minnesota House will be filled in a special election on Tuesday night that Democrats are heavily favored to win.

The race for District 34B in the Minneapolis suburbs pits former Brooklyn Park City Councilmember Xp Lee, the Democratic nominee, against Republican Ruth Bittner, a real estate agent. Lee is a member of the Hmong people who was born in a refugee camp in Thailand after his family was forced to flee Laos following the Vietnam War. He handily won the Democratic primary last month while Bittner was unopposed.

"No one's gonna be able to fill her shoes," Lee told MPR News, referring to Hortman. "People are calling her the most consequential speaker in Minnesota history. I look at it as trying to just pick up her legacy and try to follow in her footsteps."

According to data compiled by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the district 63-35, and Hortman won reelection last year by a similar 63-37 spread. Should Lee prevail, he'd restore the 67-67 tie between the parties that led to an unusual power-sharing agreement.

In June, Hortman and her husband, Mark, were slain by a gunman who also shot state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. (The Hoffmans survived.) Democratic Gov. Tim Walz called the attacks "an act of targeted political violence." According to prosecutors, the alleged shooter, Vance Boelter, had a further hit list that included the names of dozens of other Democratic officials and abortion rights supporters.

Senate

AL-Sen

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall leads the May 19 Republican primary for Senate with 37% of the vote, according to a newly released poll, while Rep. Barry Moore outpaces Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson 16-7 for second place. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a June 16 runoff.

This survey by The Alabama Poll is the first we've seen since Moore announced last month that he was joining Hudson and Marshall in the race for this open Senate seat. The poll is from a subscriber-funded survey run by Michael Lowry, a longtime state GOP insider.

NC-Sen

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper enjoys a 48-41 lead over former Republican National Committee head Michael Whatley, according to a Change Research survey for the progressive group Carolina Forward.

The poll was released a month after the GOP firm Harper Polling gave Cooper a similar 47-39 advantage in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

Governors

GA-Gov

Businessman Clark Dean says he'll enter the Republican primary for Georgia's open governorship, joining two better-known intraparty opponents: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, and Attorney General Chris Carr.

Dean, an executive at the real estate company Transwestern, tried to distinguish himself from those rivals as "an outsider and business leader." There is no word yet on whether the newcomer might be able or willing to self-fund.

WI-Gov

State Sen. Kelda Roys announced Monday that she was entering the race to succeed Gov. Tony Evers, a fellow Wisconsin Democrat who is not seeking reelection next year.

Roys, who was first elected in 2008 to represent the Madison area in the state Assembly, has unsuccessfully sought higher office twice before. Roys sought the Democratic nomination for the open 2nd Congressional District in 2012 but badly lost 72-22 against fellow state Rep. Mark Pocan, who still serves in Congress.

Roys set her sights higher in 2018 when she competed in a 10-person primary for the right to take on Republican Gov. Scott Walker. Evers, who was the state's superintendent of public instruction at the time, ended up beating his nearest opponent 42-16, while Roys took third with 13%; Evers went on to narrowly unseat Walker that fall.

Roys, though, got the chance to return to office in 2020 when state Sen. Fred Risser, who holds the record as the longest serving state legislator in American history, decided to retire after 64 years in office. This time, Roys prevailed 40-27 over a packed primary field, and she went on to easily win the general election.

Roys, who declared that "[w]e are in the fight of our lives for our democracy and our kids' future" in her launch video, enters what could be another busy nomination contest. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez were already competing in the Democratic primary, and several others are contemplating joining them.

House

KY-04, KY-Sen

Unnamed "[h]igh level Republicans" are trying to convince former Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie for renomination rather than continue with his bid for the Senate, Jonathan Martin writes in Politico. Cameron, though, insists he's not interested in making any such switch.

"I’m staying in the Senate race," Cameron, who is running to replace retiring incumbent Mitch McConnell, told Martin. "I’m still leading in all the polling and will continue to do so." Cameron's consultant also took to social media to call the piece the "[d]efinition of fake news."

The so-far unsuccessful recruitment drive comes at a time when Donald Trump and his allies are still trying to enlist a credible primary opponent for Massie, whose iconoclasm has made him an outcast in MAGAworld.

State Sen. Aaron Reed expressed interest in opposing Massie in the 4th District earlier this summer—just a few months after he had dismissed such talk by tweeting, "Fake news." But while Reed said in July he'd make up his mind "[w]hen God tells me," MAGA's master hasn't decided if he wants to anoint him.

Trump, Martin writes, felt that Reed sounded "too extreme on abortion" in a recent meeting the two had. It is not clear why Trump, who has surrounded himself with anti-abortion extremists, would see that as a potential deal-breaker in this dark-red northern Kentucky constituency.

Trump, according to Martin, shares that concern about Cameron's views, but the former attorney general also has some extra political baggage standing in his way.

Trump reportedly remains angry that Cameron, whom he backed in the 2023 primary for governor, went on to lose 53-47 against Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear. Trump wrote the morning after that election, "Daniel Cameron lost because he couldn't alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell."

Kentucky's candidate filing deadline is Jan. 9, and the primary will take place on May 19.

NY-12

Assemblymember Micah Lasher announced Monday that he would run to succeed his mentor, retiring Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, in New York's safely blue 12th District.

Lasher, who used to work for Nadler, has long been talked about as the congressman's preferred successor. Nadler has not yet made an endorsement, though observers took note when his chief of staff recently signed on to serve as Lasher's campaign treasurer.

Lasher joins Liam Elkind, a nonprofit executive who began running more than a month before Nadler announced his retirement, in the June 23 primary. Numerous other Manhattan Democrats are also considering entering this rare open-seat race to represent the Upper East Side and Upper West Side.

TX-35

Businessman Christopher Schuchardt exited the Republican primary to represent Texas' revamped 35th District on Monday, a decision his consultant says came about because of unspecified business and family concerns.

State Rep. John Lujan is the only notable Republican who was running before Schuchardt's departure, though several others have been eyeing a San Antonio-area constituency that GOP mapmakers dramatically overhauled.

VA-01

As prosecutor Shannon Taylor continues to hoover up major endorsements, one rival in next year's Democratic primary for Virginia's 1st Congressional District has decided to bow out.

Amanda Pohl announced on Monday that she was dropping out of the race to take on Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, saying in a statement, "I've come to the decision that my efforts will be best focused on continuing my service to constituents as the Chesterfield County Circuit Court Clerk."

The news came the same day that EMILYs List, the influential abortion rights group, gave its backing to Taylor, who'd previously earned the support of Sen. Tim Kaine and former Govs. Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe.

Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, still faces several other opponents for the Democratic nod, though, including attorney Andrew Lucchetti, activist Lisa Vedernikova Khanna, attorney Melvin Tull, and meteorologist Sean Sublette.

Mayors & County Leaders

New Orleans, LA Mayor

A new poll shows New Orleans City Council member Helena Moreno taking 51% in the Oct. 11 race for mayor, which would give her just enough support to secure the majority necessary to win outright.

Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of WVUE-TV, also finds fellow City Council member Oliver Thomas edging out state Sen. Royce Duplessis 16-11 for a second spot in a potential Nov. 15 runoff to succeed termed-out Mayor LaToya Cantrell. (All four are Democrats.)

Moreno, who was born in Mexico, would be the first Hispanic person to lead majority-Black New Orleans, and she's rolled out endorsements from several high-profile local Black figures.

Rep. Troy Carter, who represents most of the city in Congress, backed Moreno on Monday. She also recently received support from District Attorney Jason Williams, Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis, and former Rep. Cedric Richmond, who is Carter's immediate predecessor.

Duplessis and Thomas, who are both Black, are hoping to force Moreno into a runoff.

Duplessis used his opening TV ad earlier this month to argue that the frontrunner is to blame for "the chaos in City Hall that's held us back." The narrator goes on to praise Duplessis as "one of us," calling him a candidate who has "the vision to get New Orleans back on track and the receipts to back it up."

Thomas, by contrast, did not mention either of his major opponents in his first spot, which also debuted in September. He instead touted his successes on the City Council, including how "[c]rime is down over the last three years."

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Wake County, NC District Attorney

Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel announced on Tuesday that he would run for district attorney in Wake County, the largest county in North Carolina and home of the state capital.

"With Donald Trump and right-wing extremists trying to take away our freedoms, the threats to our democracy have never been more urgent," Nickel said in a statement. "Yet, at every turn, we see our courts stepping in to try and stop the chaos and defend our constitution. Our rights are under attack and that's why I'm running."

Nickel joins two other candidates in the primary: Melanie Shekita, a longtime prosecutor in Wake County, and Sherita Walton, an attorney for the city of Raleigh. All three are seeking the post held by Democratic incumbent Lorrin Freeman, who said in May that she would not seek a fourth term.

Prior to entering the state legislature in 2018, Nickel practiced criminal defense law at a firm he founded. After four years in the state Senate, he flipped the prior version of the 13th Congressional District, which had been drawn as a swing district under a court-ordered map.

But that same night, Republicans took back control of the state Supreme Court, which had imposed that map after determining that GOP-drawn lines violated the state Constitution as an unlawful partisan gerrymander.

The new-look court swiftly overturned that ruling, giving Republicans in the legislature the go-ahead to draw a new gerrymander. They did, targeting three Democrats, including Nickel—all of whom opted not to run again.

Earlier this year, Nickel launched a bid for the U.S. Senate but ultimately deferred to former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Thanks to the profile he's attained over the years, though, he starts off his latest campaign as the likely favorite in both the primary and the general election in Wake County, which voted for Kamala Harris by a 62-36 margin last year.

And as the top prosecutor for the seat of North Carolina's government, Wake County's district attorney has jurisdiction over political corruption cases involving lawmakers and state officials.

Local Democrats will be particularly glad to turn the page on Freeman, who alienated just about her entire party in 2022 after she launched a bizarre criminal investigation targeting then-Attorney General Josh Stein, a fellow Democrat who is now governor.

Freeman had once been viewed as a possible successor to Stein, but she threw that all away when she sought to charge Stein for violating a disused, nearly century-old law seeking to criminalize alleged false statements about political opponents. (Stein had run an ad claiming that his Republican rival in 2020, Jim O'Neill, had allowed a backlog of rape kits to build up as district attorney in Forsyth County.)

Democrats across the state lambasted Freeman—including Cooper, who was governor at the time.

"The idea that the government can criminally prosecute a person for expressing a legitimate political opinion runs counter to the First Amendment and threatens anyone who wants to criticize a public official," Cooper said in a statement. "This is an unprecedented repression of free speech that should trouble everyone."

The courts agreed. A panel of federal appellate judges ruled in February of the following year that the law Freeman was seeking to deploy was likely unconstitutional. The next day, she dropped the case.