Morning Digest: Seattle's mayor hopes to be the first to win reelection in two decades
But a new poll suggests an insurgent challenger poses a threat
Leading Off
Seattle, WA Mayor
A new poll shows Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell unexpectedly trailing progressive organizer Katie Wilson in the November general election as he tries to become the first incumbent in two decades to win reelection as the leader of Washington's largest city.
The survey, conducted by the Democratic pollster Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute, shows Harrell and Wilson—both Democrats—advancing out of next week's officially nonpartisan top-two primary with 33% and 31% of the vote, respectively. Businessman Joe Mallahan, a fellow Democrat who came close to winning this office in 2009, is far back with 3%, while five other candidates trail still further.
Respondents, though, favor Wilson 43-39 over Harrell when they're asked whom they prefer in the general election. Another 15% say they're undecided, while the remaining 4% won't back either candidate.
NPI, which hasn't taken sides in the race, noted that its survey sampled "likely August voters," so the electorate could look different in the fall. Harrell has reason to be optimistic about such a turnaround: In 2021, he led his opponent, Lorena Gonzalez, 34-32 in the first round before beating her in a 59-41 rout three months later.
The mayor, though, didn't look like he'd have much to worry about just months ago. While Harrell was elected four years ago as a pro-business candidate, he's since earned the support of labor organizations as he seeks a second term. The mayor also has the backing of Rep. Pramila Jayapal, a nationally prominent progressive who had clashed with him in the past.
Wilson, though, is arguing that Harrell, a longtime fixture in local politics, represents a failed status quo. She's faulted him for not doing enough to address the rising cost of living or homelessness, saying voters "are tired of weak, ineffective leadership from the mayor's office."
Wilson also believes that national issues will give her an opening.
"Part of the reason why we have Trump at the White House is the failure of a certain brand of Democratic Party leadership," she recently told David Kroman of the Seattle Times. "And frankly, I don't think that Harrell breaks that mold."
Mallahan, meanwhile, has focused on allegations leveled by Monisha Harrell, who is both the incumbent's niece and a former mayoral staffer, that the mayor presided over an administration where she and other women and people of color were ignored or the target of demeaning nicknames.
The incumbent, who has denied the allegations, says the city has made great progress during his tenure. He's argued that crime has fallen under his watch as police hiring has risen, and he's warned that replacing him would lead to dangerous backsliding.
Harrell also says that his opponents are too inexperienced to deal with the Emerald City's challenges, telling Kroman, "Now is not the right time for somebody to learn on the job."
Harrell is hoping this argument will help him become the first Seattle mayor to win reelection since Greg Nickels, a fellow Democrat, did so in 2005.
Nickels, though, was consigned to third place when he tried to claim a third term four years later, while Mallahan and environmentalist Mike McGinn claimed the top two spots. McGinn ended up losing reelection in 2013, and none of his successors have served more than one term during the ensuing time.
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Senate
NC-Sen
Former North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for Senate and endorsing former Gov. Roy Cooper.
Nickel did not directly address reports that he plans to run for Wake County district attorney, though he hinted he'd be on the ballot next year. In a statement, the former congressman said, "Public service is a part of who I am and you'll hear more from me soon."
TX-Sen, TX-Gov
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico tells CNN he'll decide whether to run for the Senate after an ongoing special session of the Texas legislature ends next month. Under state law, the session, which started on July 21, can run for no more than 30 days.
Talarico would join former Rep. Colin Allred and retired astronaut Terry Virts in the primary, though it's possible he'll seek a different office.
CNN writes that unnamed "officials and donors" have tried to convince Talarico to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott instead. These power brokers also reportedly want Rep. Joaquin Castro, who has talked about running for Senate or governor, to instead campaign for attorney general. CNN, though, says that "it's not clear that Talarico or Castro are moving toward those races themselves."
Talarico has occasionally discussed running for governor, though he seems far more interested in joining the Senate. The gubernatorial race didn't come up during Talarico's recent two-and-a-half-hour sitdown on Joe Rogan's podcast, nor did it get a mention in a subsequent Talarico interview with Politico.
Castro, for his part, has shown no obvious interest in running to replace Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is giving up his post to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary.
Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson, meanwhile, hasn't ruled out waging his own campaign against Cornyn, though CNN's sources doubt he'll leave the House. Rep. Wesley Hunt, meanwhile, is reportedly trying to pressure Cornyn to drop out so he can run in his place—an effort that so far seems to have only antagonized his fellow Republicans.
Governors
GA-Gov
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said Tuesday that she won't enter the Republican primary for governor of Georgia next year, though the far-right congresswoman held out the possibility she'd wage such a campaign "one day."
Greene's decision not to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp is welcome news for Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, as she might be the one person in Georgia whom Jones can't out-MAGA. Jones faces Attorney General Chris Carr in next year's primary.
NJ-Gov
Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli 45-37 in this fall's race for governor of New Jersey, according to a new poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
The only other independent survey we've seen since the primaries came from Rutgers University last month, and it gave Sherrill a much wider 56-35 advantage. Republicans have publicized their own polling that shows Sherrill's lead ranging from 3 to 7 points.
WI-Gov
State Sen. Chris Larson has yet to say anything publicly about his plans for next year, but Fox 6 lists him as a potential candidate considering running to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers, a fellow Wisconsin Democrat.
If Larson seeks the state's top job, he'd likely be in for a rematch against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley, who won his post in 2020 by narrowly defeating Larson, said last week he would "be taking steps toward entering" the Democratic primary for governor.
WY-Gov
Most Wyoming Republicans looking to run for governor are in a holding pattern as incumbent Mark Gordon and Rep. Harriet Hageman continue to deliberate, but one wealthy businessman is just about done waiting.
Reid Rasner, whom NBC identified as a billionaire in March, quietly filed paperwork last month for what he now tells Cowboy State Daily's Clair McFarland is an "exploratory committee." Rasner doesn't sound like he'll be exploring for much longer, though, as he anticipates "a decision in the coming weeks."
Rasner may still not know by then, though, whether there will be an open-seat race to lead America's reddest state.
While Gordon—who beat Hageman in the 2018 primary—is currently prohibited from seeking a third consecutive term, he could challenge that ban in state court. Such a suit, as The Downballot explained in December, would likely succeed, but Gordon is still keeping everyone guessing whether or not he'll attempt to overturn the law.
At least one Wyoming legislator hopes that Gordon, who has clashed with Hageman's allies in the state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, will take the matter to court.
"He's experienced, he's a very popular governor," state Sen. Cale Case, who also found himself on the outs with the ascendant Freedom Caucus, informed McFarland. "And I don't think any of the alternatives will measure up."
Hageman, who is the most prominent of those alternatives, has yet to announce what she'll do. An adviser confirmed that the congresswoman, who first showed interest nearly six months ago in another run for governor, remains interested, but he didn't indicate when she might decide.
But Rasner, who paused his high-profile effort to buy the social media giant TikTok earlier this month, may not be inclined to defer to anyone. Last year, he self-funded over $1 million for a no-hope primary campaign against Sen. John Barrasso, losing 67-24. But the wealthy businessman, who would be the state's first gay governor, could gain more traction in a busy race without a frontrunner.
That's exactly the kind of race he could get if neither Gordon nor Hageman runs.
Both Secretary of State Chuck Gray and state House Speaker Chip Neiman tell McFarland they'd only seek the state's top job if Hageman stays out of the primary. The two would-be candidates, like Hageman, hail from the far-right wing of the party.
State Sen. Eric Barlow, state Senate President Bo Biteman, and Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder also each expressed interest in the governor's office, though none mentioned either Gordon or Hageman. Barlow added he'd decide "fairly soon."
State Sen. Cheri Steinmetz and University of Wyoming trustee Paul Ulrich additionally didn't rule out anything when asked by McFarland. State Sen. Ogden Driskill, Treasurer Curt Meier, and Senate Majority Floor Leader Tara Nethercott didn't respond to McFarland's inquiries, though Meier didn't rule out the idea last year.
It's possible that if Hageman, who is Wyoming's sole House member, runs for governor, some gubernatorial hopefuls might try to succeed her. No one, though, appears to have mentioned the possibility.
House
AZ-06
Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza has picked up an endorsement from EMILYs List, the influential Democratic group devoted to electing pro-choice women, for next year's primary to take on Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani.
Mendoza's only serious intraparty opponent is Mo Goldman, an immigration attorney who is also running to flip Arizona's 6th District in the southeastern part of the state. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried this constituency 50-49 last year.
GA-10
Republican Rep. Mike Collins' decision to run for the Senate has set off an open-seat race to replace him in Georgia's 10th Congressional District, a conservative constituency that stretches from the eastern outskirts of the Atlanta area to the South Carolina state line.
State Rep. Houston Gaines has "quietly worked to rack up endorsements" as he prepares to seek the Republican nomination, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Gaines does not, however, appear to have publicly expressed interest in running yet.
Former Rep. Paul Broun, meanwhile, tells the AJC he's thinking of attempting yet another comeback. Broun, who declared in 2012 that "evolution, embryology, Big Bang theory" are all "lies straight from the pit of hell," unintentionally exiled himself to The Bad Place in 2014 when he gave up a previous version of the 10th to wage an ill-fated Senate bid.
But while the ex-congressman has repeatedly tried to make like Orpheus and return from whence he came, Republican primary voters have rejected all three of his subsequent House campaigns. Broun most recently took fourth place against Collins in the 2022 contest for the 10th.
Other Republicans are sure to take a look at this seat, but state Sen. Brian Strickland will not be one of them. Strickland's team tells the AJC he'll continue his campaign to replace Attorney General Chris Carr, who is leaving to wage his own bid for governor.
Whoever wins the GOP nod is likely to succeed Collins in the House. While the 10th includes Athens, the liberal college town that's home to the University of Georgia, as well as Democratic-leaning areas around Atlanta, rural conservative communities cast far more votes.
Trump carried this constituency 60-39 in both 2020 and 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot. However, his margin dropped slightly last year, making the district one of just 19 nationwide to move leftward between the last two presidential elections.
IL-07
Democratic Rep. Danny Davis will announce if he'll seek reelection on Thursday, reports NBC5's Mary Ann Ahern, and there's good reason to think the 83-year-old will say he's retiring from Illinois' safely blue 7th District.
Former Cook County Commissioner Richard Boykin, who spent nearly a decade as Davis' chief of staff, said this week that he was running for this Chicago-based constituency. Both the congressman and Boykin previously said that Boykin would not challenge Davis should he seek a 16th term.
Boykin, who worked for Davis from 1997 to 2006, went on to win a spot on the Cook County Commission in 2014, but he wasn't there long. He narrowly lost renomination in 2018 to Brandon Johnson, who went on to be elected mayor of Chicago in 2023.
Boykin hasn't had any better luck at the polls since then. He took third place in a busy 2020 primary for county circuit clerk, and his 2022 primary challenge to County Chair Toni Preckwinkle ended with him on the wrong side of a 76-24 blowout.
MN-05
Rep. Ilhan Omar this week publicized endorsements from a quartet of the most prominent Democrats in Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz; Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith; and Attorney General Keith Ellison, who preceded Omar in the House.
The foursome backed Omar just days after labor leader Latonya Reeves publicly expressed interest in challenging the congresswoman for renomination in the safely Democratic 5th District. Other Minneapolis-based Democrats, though, aren't eager to take on the outspoken incumbent.
Former City Council Member Don Samuels told the Minnesota Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi that he would not wage a third campaign against Omar. Samuels, who narrowly lost in 2022 before falling short 56-43 last year, argued, "Whoever thinks that Ilhan should not be elected, whether they be passive voters or big movers and shakers, they really lost a couple opportunities."
Kashiwagi also writes that former state House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler, who had reportedly been considering a campaign, informed her that "he has no plans to run."
NE-02
State Sen. John Cavanaugh has publicized an internal poll giving him a 36-15 lead on his nearest Democratic primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, in what's currently a five-person field. The survey from GBAO comes with the better part of a year to go before the May primary for Nebraska's open 2nd District.
NY-19
Congressional staffer Haris Alic, who heads communications for the GOP on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, tells Punchbowl News he's considering challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York's competitive 19th District.
Alic, who is 31, says he left southeastern upstate New York "as a young man" and "had to move six hours away just to find work—a choice too many New Yorkers still face." One of Alic's previous jobs was working for the white nationalist site Breitbart.
No prominent Republicans are currently running against Riley in the 19th, which favored Kamala Harris by a tight 50-49 spread. Last year, Riley unseated GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro 51-49 two years after falling just short in their first bout; Molinaro has since become a senior advisor to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy as he waits for the Senate to confirm him as head of the Federal Transit Administration.
OH-09
Air Force veteran Wayne Kinsel announced this week that he was joining the Republican primary to oppose longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio's 9th District.
The current incarnation of this constituency in the northwestern part of the state favored Donald Trump 53-46, and the state GOP has the chance to make the lines even tougher for Kaptur this year.
TX-18
Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards lead in the first poll we've seen of the Nov. 4 all-party special election for Texas' 18th District, an outcome that would result in an all-Democratic runoff election in this reliably blue seat.
The University of Houston shows Menefee and Edwards tied with 19% apiece in the first round of the race to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, a first-term Democrat who died in March at the age of 70 following a cancer diagnosis. Democratic state Rep. Jolanda Jones and Republican Carmen Montiel, a realtor who unsuccessfully ran for Congress twice before, are not far behind with 14% each.
The survey shows none of the other candidates within striking distance of advancing to the second round. The nearest with just 4% is teacher George Foreman IV, an independent who is the son and namesake of the late boxing legend.
Texas requires all special election candidates to face off on a single ballot rather than in separate party primaries. A runoff would take place unless one of the candidates wins a majority in the first round, a tall order in a field this crowded.
Legislatures
MN State Senate
Gov. Tim Walz has scheduled a pair of special elections to fill vacant seats in Minnesota's closely divided state Senate for Nov. 4, with party primaries to take place on Aug. 26.
Neither district is likely to change hands: The 29th, which was held by Republican Bruce Anderson until his death earlier this month, is safely red, while the 47th, which Democrat Nicole Mitchell resigned from after her recent conviction on burglary charges, is solidly blue.
Before the two seats became vacant, however, Democrats held just a 34-33 edge in the chamber, so observers will be watching to see whether the party maintains its small advantage. All 67 seats in the Senate will be up next year.
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Mayors & County Leaders
New York, NY Mayor
Democrat Zohran Mamdani leads all comers—in all configurations—in a new poll of November's race for New York City mayor from Zenith Research.
In a five-way contest including all candidates on the general election ballot, Mamdani holds a wide 50-22 lead over Andrew Cuomo, with Curtis Sliwa taking 13% and the incumbent, Eric Adams, grabbing just 7%. Attorney Jim Walden brings up the rear with 1% of the vote, while 6% are still undecided. (Sliwa is the lone Republican in the race; the other three are all running as independents.)
While it's no longer possible for Mamdani's opponents to remove their names from the ballot, if you remove any of them as options for respondents, the Democratic nominee still enjoys majority support.
With Cuomo gone, Mamdani crushes Sliwa 55-16 with Adams at 14. Alternately, with Adams out of the picture, Mamdani leads Cuomo 51-25. And in one-on-one matchups, Mamdani beats Adams 59-32 and Cuomo 52-40. (All three also-rans have said, in one manner or another, that they have no intention of dropping out.)
Zenith is a new firm recently established by pollster Adam Carlson, an election analyst well-known for his commentary on X. Carlson has used his platform to explicitly advocate for Mamdani.
Zenith's client for the survey was Public Progress Solutions, a consulting firm run by Amit Singh Bagga, who is a former aide to Gov. Kathy Hochul. According to the New York Times, Bagga donated to multiple candidates in the Democratic primary, including Mamdani (but not Cuomo).
Danny Davis thankfully seems to be hanging it up
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/30/congress/danny-davis-retiring-00483259
Ok California, get to work on that redistricting initiative.