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Nov 4
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Kildere53's avatar

This is conspiracy BS from people who don't understand the voting patterns of ultra-Orthodox Jews.

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Tigercourse's avatar

I'm sorry, a 750,000 discrepancy in Rockland County alone? Are they claiming that? Because the total population of Rockland is way under that.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Lmao this is due to Hasidic strategic voting. For example: Kiryas Joel voted for Democrat Pat Ryan for House but Trump for President.

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Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

In Israel, Orthodox Jews there vote virtually monolithically for political parties that specifically cater to Orthodox Jewish voters and no other demographic.

Massive ticket-splitting in U.S. elections by Orthodox Jewish voters here is nothing new and is commonplace, as there aren't enough Orthodox Jews in the U.S. to justify the existence of political parties like the Orthodox parties in Israel, and their political beliefs don't neatly line up with the political mainstream of either major party here.

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michaelflutist's avatar

To clarify, you are talking specifically about Haredim/Chasidim, not Modern Orthodox people, a majority of whom vote Republican in the U.S. but who are not close to monolithic.

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Absentee Boater's avatar

Former vice president Dick Cheney passed away earlier this morning.

The only time I ever saw him in person was when he came to speak at my college, and his car was thoroughly egged on its way out.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

My momma always told me when you can't say something kind, don't say anything at all, so my trap is shut.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Well, I credit him with caring about American democracy in the age of Trump. No further comment.

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Mark's avatar

Very unlikely redemption story. Partial redemption anyway.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yes, and very partial.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

And his endorsement likely hurt us, lol

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ehstronghold's avatar

We live in interesting times when people like Bill Kristol, Dick Cheney, etc. wound up on our side of fighting Trumpism.

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stevk's avatar

Agreed. Sad that that is where the bar is, but he did at least clear it...

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Diogenes's avatar

It will be interesting to see whether he is accorded the usual memorial honors of a former vice president and member of Congress.

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michaelflutist's avatar

From Trump? Not a chance! He's almost guaranteed to symbolically piss on his grave.

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Absentee Boater's avatar

I am very confident that the President will give him all the respect and decorum that is due.

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Zack from the SFV's avatar

Yeah, President Dubya, not President Tr*mp...

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rayspace's avatar

Just FYI--the proper term would be that Garcia was elected to the Cook County Board. It's the Board of Commissioners, not a Commission.

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alienalias's avatar

And that it's really not a substantive legislative body aside from the president. His real teeth-cutting was as a state senator and alder.

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Jeff Singer's avatar

Thank you!

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Marliss Desens's avatar

The Indiana legislature has decided not to meet in a special session in November, citing taxpayer expense for a special session. Instead, they plan to convene in December as an early start to the 2026 legislative session and end the 2026 year early. Re-districting is still on the table.

https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2025/11/03/indiana-lawmakers-set-mid-cycle-redistricting-work-for-december/?emci=bc6b6134-dbb8-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&emdi=d8da26fa-79b9-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&ceid=630426

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Conor Gallogly's avatar

Garcia setting up his preferred candidate is one of those legal, but sleazy moves that drive cynicism. But I’d prefer that to him holding the seat into his 80s like many Democrats do.

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methis's avatar

its a very, very Chicago thing to do... downright Aldermanic!

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PollJunkie's avatar

The only good thing about this move would be that there would be one less primary for AIPAC to meddle in but I don't like this undemocratic move.

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

Happy Election Day!

The final PDI ballot return report shows California Democrats maintaining over 50% of the ballots returned so far--a higher share than past Election Day ballot reports, including 2024 (which was more like 48%). Overall voter turnout so far is 29%.

I posted some screenshots on BlueSky here if folks want to see more detailed data: https://bsky.app/profile/awildlibappeared.bsky.social/post/3m4ssekwhvs2w

I'm scared to say anything positive, but if I had to make a bet, I'd bet on Yes passing with over 60% of the vote.

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Zack from the SFV's avatar

My current guess is 62% YES for Prop 50. It will be interesting to see the difference in turnout between Blue and Red parts of the Golden State.

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stevk's avatar

Yeah, I've been very curious about this too...

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Oggoldy's avatar

I took a year off of politics after 2024, and that one year mark is today. I'm not sure how much I will be active in my return, but we shall see.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Welcome back

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sacman701's avatar

Welcome back. You have nearly a year to gin up your Minnesota legislature preview.

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Oggoldy's avatar

Not even close. I always release my initial one after the filing deadline, and start working on it a month before that. So I have about 6 months until I have to start in early May. The initial one takes way longer than the post-primary and pre-general editions, as the latter are just edits/updates instead of from scratch.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Glad to see you.

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Skaje's avatar

Welcome back! Breaks are so important. I took like a month off this summer, feel like I should have taken more. It's a good time to be back, the mood is radically different and all signs point to Republicans having a pretty bad night. If you had told me a year ago Newsom was going to put forward a measure to intentionally and openly gerrymander the state, and that it would be headed towards an easy passage, I never would have believed you. The context is pretty dire and also not something I would have anticipated, but here we are.

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Kildere53's avatar

Yeah, watching Democrats do a 180 on gerrymandering in the last few months has been a very enjoyable experience.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I would far rather see SCOTUS do a 180 on gerrymandering and essentially ban extreme gerrymandering! It’s a major problem for American democracy that fewer and fewer Congressional races are competitive. Likewise with state legislative seats.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I wouldn't even call it a 180; if a national ban on political gerrymandering came up in the Congress today, pretty much all Dems would vote on it. We're just playing by their rules instead of ours.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

I guess we will see tonight, but I expect I have too much PTSD to ever enter the Discord server again!

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Mark's avatar

Welcome back. I've been known to take some months off from politics but never a full year. I admire your resolve.

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Philip's avatar

Me too OG. Me too.

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bpfish's avatar

I hope Patty Garcia is the very first incumbent to receive a primary challenger next cycle. This anti-democratic bullshit is disqualifying in this era.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Should be, but I don't think it will be if her constituents feel she's done a good job.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Technically it's not anti-democratic because others could have filed but didn't but of course it's sneaky as eff. She's never had to earn her stripes politically so trust she'll have a target on her.

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Techno00's avatar

I’m curious as to exactly who may challenge her. Chuy’s status as a progressive pretty much ensures a challenger from the center will appear (assuming his CoS is one), with Ray Lopez being an obvious centrist pick (he tried to primary Chuy at one point), but from what I’ve seen on Bluesky the left isn’t happy either and is openly threatening a primary challenge.

Does Carlos Ramirez Rosa still live in the district? I know he tried briefly back in 2018 — if he’s still in the district I could see him making another go.

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finnley's avatar

I could see Chicago Councilman Byron Sigcho-Lopez running. He's to the left of Chuy and has endorsed primary challengers to Illinois House members in the past.

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Mike Johnson's avatar

Carlos is in Ramirez's district. Ray Lopez is DOA, considering his support for Trump's raids.

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PollJunkie's avatar

https://x.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1985705206491873731

"SCOOP

@J_Insider

via

@marcrod97

: "Before denouncing AIPAC, Moulton sought group’s endorsement for Senate campaign"

"Moulton turned against the group when it was unable to guarantee him an endorsement upon the launch of his Senate campaign""

Seth Moulton is a JOKE!

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ehstronghold's avatar

I need Ed Markey to smell the coffee and retire instead of open the door for Seth Moulton to being a Senator for the next 20+ years.

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bpfish's avatar

I don't think Moulton has much of a shot, unless Markey has a major health scare in the next year.

That said, the only people he is holding back are other progressives. He is not scaring off the centrists, but he is probably the main thing preventing Pressley from running and likely winning.

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Absentee Boater's avatar

It’s time for that wonderful Election Day tradition: anecdotal turnout reports!!!

It was a 30-minute wait to vote here in bluey-blue DeKalb County, Georgia, with the PSC seats the only things on the ballot. Granted, a big part of the wait was that they have many fewer than normal voting sites since it’s an off-off year election.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say I've seen more grassroots enthusiasm about the PSC race than the POTUS race a year ago. I think we're going to win.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Grassroots needs to get it's priorities straight if true.

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finnley's avatar

I feel like it’s the candidate’s job to win over the grassroots and not the other way around

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michaelflutist's avatar

It's everyone's job!

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axlee's avatar

Nah. The Election Day turnout seems to match the general Election Day. So probably we will see about 1m votes +/- cast today. The early votes however, are only about 640k, not 4m like last year.

Overall it looks like 20-25% turnout rate. Nothing like over 70% for the general election.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Hopefully that bodes well for the more energized side, i.e. us

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

I'm not saying turnout will exceed last November of course, but I'm seeing not just base folks but usually apolitical folks encouraging people to vote for the Ds in the PSC. I didn't see that for Harris last year.

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RL Miller's avatar

purple east Ventura County, CA: hung around the outside of my polling place for about 30 minutes. Steady trickle of voters but no long lines. I'm stereotyping and guessing but I'd say that this group is 2/3 GOP... but I've been knocking doors in the same area the last wknd, and most Dem-ID'd voters have already voted.

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J.'s avatar

I'm hopeful about the VA elections. I was a poll greeter for the morning shift today in a deep-blue chunk of VA. there was a steady trickle of people, a lot of of whom were planning to vote for the democratic candidates, including Jay Jones.

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Kildere53's avatar

I really think there will be a lot of shy Jones voters, and that the gap between his result and Spanberger's will be smaller than the polls are suggesting.

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Mark's avatar

Probably. I'd be pretty shocked if Jones didn't win.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I really wouldn't be.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I won't be surprised either way. There's a credible justification for both outcomes, with the polling being a bit all over the place but largely close between them.

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stevk's avatar

I think he'll likely win, riding on Spanbarger's coattails, but I expect her margin to be in double digits and his to be 1-2 points, tops.

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Alex Hupp's avatar

I always love finding anomalies while doing elections research. The one I'm currently intrigued by is this guy named Gavin Solomon from New York, who runs what seems to be a healthcare supply drop-shipping company. He has filed to run in *74* House seats since July, covering at least one in every state AND territory (and a whopping 12 in New York alone).

https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?q=Solomon,%20Gavin

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finnley's avatar

He's the Rocky De La Fuente of this cycle

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PollJunkie's avatar

Anyone following the Miami mayor race? What about it?

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Gonzalez seems like the candidate to beat

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PollJunkie's avatar

For the love of God, Mamdani cannot turn out to be another Brandon Johnson. The GOP will use him as a cudgel against left-coded populists in every state and Schumer will use him as a cudgel against AOC in 2028. I really hope that he heeds to Obama, Bernie and AOC's advice that there a lot of depends on him and he cannot fail and prove his detractors right.

https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/the-mamdani-effect-democrats-across-the-country-are-running-for-senate-on-radical-socialist-platforms-2025-11-03/

https://x.com/burgessev/status/1985704181517132224

"Starting to get a sense for how Republicans might use Mamdani as an issue"

https://www.nrsc.org/updates/

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Mike Johnson's avatar

Johnson's poll numbers have rebounded significantly (crime being down is helping), and even more so because of his robust opposition to Trump, so he's getting a rally around the flag effect. If this were a year ago, I would say he has no chance at re-election, but now? I'd say its 50/50.

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ehstronghold's avatar

There's some hopium mixed in here, but Mamdani's been talking to people like Rahm Emanuel, current London mayor Sadiq Khan (yeah you read that right), Obama, etc. and others who are closer to the center than he are about governing NYC since he won the primary. The fact Mamdani said he'd keep Jessica Tisch onboard at NYPD commissioner is a welcome tea leaf that he's been listening to the advice he's gotten.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

It doesn't seem like a "vanity run" to me, and good on him for taking responsibility seriously.

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stevk's avatar

I agree with this. Again, I'm not a Mamdani supporter and, if I still lived in NYC, I wouldn't be voting for him, but I do think he's relatively likely to turn out more like AOC (started as left-wing darling, but adapted to the realities of the world and politics) than like, for example, Cori Bush.

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michaelflutist's avatar

You would have voted for Cuomo in the general election, or do you mean you wouldn't have ranked him in the primaries, which is very different?

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stevk's avatar

I wouldn't have ranked Cuomo (or Mamdani) in the primaries, but if I still lived in NYC, I would likely vote for him in the general.

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michaelflutist's avatar

My girlfriend did the same thing. I ranked Mamdani 4th in the primaries, but she voted her convictions, and both of us still have a lot of doubts that he can get things through that require approval from Albany, but we like what he says and hope he's able to make a positive difference for New Yorkers.

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stevk's avatar

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Despite my reservations about him, I actually think he might do a reasonable job.

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Disastermarch17's avatar

While I'm certainly interested in how Mamdani governs and agree that he needs to treat governing very seriously, republicans will always find a boogyman and we can't choose our candidates based on how republicans will frame an issue. They called Joe Biden a socialist/communist/fascist at every turn despute having a multidecade career staying at the very center of mainstream politics in this country.

The democratic party is largely seen as having nothing to stand on except social issues. As a party, we need to embrace people who are making people excited to vote. Enthusiasm for Mamdani brought out over 100k new voters onto the rolls who were excited about his candidacy, many of whom in new constituencies.

Placing affordability as the crux of his campaign was incredibly smart, and there are ways to translate it across the country. You just need candidates who sound like real people and who can interact with people on a human level. I don't expect Idaho to elect a Mamdani-like candidate tomorrow, but we can't keep running the same tired kind of candidate over and over and expecting a different result.

The era of campaigning on incrementalism is over. You need to have ideas that appeal to people and can't be talking about what you cannot do. You need to get people invested in big ideas again. Obama did it. To some expect, Biden did too. We have to be able to stand for something if we want people to vote for us. Having a wishywashy, poll-tested message isn't cutting it. You need to have a vision if you want people to vote for you in an era of total disillusionment.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I support your message, but I do think it overlooks the fact that the incredibly ignorant, stupid, deluded voters swing wildly between the two parties, depending on how they feel about the present. So if voters are currently angry at the incumbents, the Democrats can indeed win for no other reason, and the same was true of the Republicans last year.

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Disastermarch17's avatar

But I think if you're going to build a movement and build political will, which you need to do to successfully govern--you need an affirmative vision. You'll always lose some people on the margins between elections, but if you aren't building towards something, you're standing still, and letting the world/voters pass you by to someone who will appeal to them.

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michaelflutist's avatar

To look at it cynically, if a party stands for something and people vote it into power because they are mad at the incumbent party because of how they feel in the present, the incoming party can claim and delude themselves that they have a mandate to effectuate their vision, when maybe no-one ever does except in extremis.

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Disastermarch17's avatar

Which is why you need to run on something that people can grasp that will also affect their lives. It's hard to argue the Mamdani campaign hasn't captivated a large number of people who are excited about his vision. Translating that into a governing philosophy is going to be a massive test. I keep coming back to the same thing when I hear people arguing against his platform (Not saying you are, but think this is illustrative). I ask people what the Harris campaign stood for, and I keep getting blank faces. You can talk about these bedrock principles like democracy and freedom, but if that doesn't translate into something material, they're just words. Every democratic policy measure coming out of the house and senate over the last few years has been a means tested tax credit that takes forever to phase in. It's hard to get people motivated by that. Even when they manage to do it quickly (See the green energy credits in IFA), they can't sell it to the public.

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michaelflutist's avatar

The Biden Administration was the most progressive one in decades. It produced all kinds of major, important projects and helped loads and loads of people, but because of an obsession with inflation, a fucked up media, and some problems with the messenger, it lost to the worst kind of criminal wannabe dictator. You're right that Mamdani somehow got through that, and it's -that- as much as his message that needs to be studied!

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Matt's avatar

Fox/WSJ/NYT/NY Post/etc. are going to cover him like a disaster no matter what he does. The good thing is that they matter less and less every day. If he can maintain good relationships with state leaders and local power centers (police), I think he'll do fine.

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michaelflutist's avatar

The police are likely to be a problem for any mayor who doesn't support the brutalization of Black, brown and any other people the police want carte blanche to victimize.

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stevk's avatar

I'm no Mamdani fan, but I'm not afraid of the GOP turning him into a bogeyman. It's always someone for them - AOC, Omar, Mamdani etc. So, if not him, they'll find someone else. As an aside, I wonder what all of their selected bogeyman have in common....

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Zero Cool's avatar

Or Mamdani could be another Bernie Sanders in running NYC like Sanders did with Burlington, VT as Mayor back in the 80’s.

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Mike in MD's avatar

MD redistricting: Wes Moore reminds Bill Ferguson that it's the Governor who starts the redistricting process in the state, not the Senate President.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/11/04/democrat-wes-moore-redistricting-maryland/

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bpfish's avatar

But Bill still has to play along, so it's obviously a bit of a pressure campaign. But I have a pretty good feeling Moore's heart is not really in it and that he's mainly just trying to get some pro-democracy street cred in advance of a certain other race 2028.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Bad feeling, you mean?

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Mike Johnson's avatar

Crossover episode?! can't wait!

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