the decadence of nj one party rule cannot be overstated. Micah Rasmussen, head of the institute for politics at rider university has given many talks about how in a one-party state, that's highly educated but also dependent on a multi-racial coalition, you cannot afford to ever rest on your laurels...(looking at you new york). Contrast that with one party rule in states that are not highly educated with coalitions that do not rely on more than one racial group, i.e., the deep south
you're correct. Minnesota seems to be the exception when it comes to ethics in state politics (just on our side, ethical and norm coleman are words not meant to be associated)
worked a shift at the Essex County Courthouse this morning, as a lawyer volunteer for the ECDO, it was a beautiful thing to see, god how I wish these numbers were coming in last year instead, but as ted kennedy said "the cause endures"
everyone at my firm is buzzing about who's going to win, but @umichvoter as you indicated has shown it seems knock on wood, we are looking ok in the garden state
Hard to give a precise number for this, but yeah 5+ would certainly do it. That said, the current results give pretty strong credence to the idea that Spanbarger is going to (barely) carry Jones across the line.
To clarify, you are talking specifically about Haredim/Chasidim, not Modern Orthodox people, a majority of whom vote Republican in the U.S. but who are not close to monolithic.
The Indiana legislature has decided not to meet in a special session in November, citing taxpayer expense for a special session. Instead, they plan to convene in December as an early start to the 2026 legislative session and end the 2026 year early. Re-districting is still on the table.
Garcia setting up his preferred candidate is one of those legal, but sleazy moves that drive cynicism. But I’d prefer that to him holding the seat into his 80s like many Democrats do.
The final PDI ballot return report shows California Democrats maintaining over 50% of the ballots returned so far--a higher share than past Election Day ballot reports, including 2024 (which was more like 48%). Overall voter turnout so far is 29%.
Not even close. I always release my initial one after the filing deadline, and start working on it a month before that. So I have about 6 months until I have to start in early May. The initial one takes way longer than the post-primary and pre-general editions, as the latter are just edits/updates instead of from scratch.
Welcome back! Breaks are so important. I took like a month off this summer, feel like I should have taken more. It's a good time to be back, the mood is radically different and all signs point to Republicans having a pretty bad night. If you had told me a year ago Newsom was going to put forward a measure to intentionally and openly gerrymander the state, and that it would be headed towards an easy passage, I never would have believed you. The context is pretty dire and also not something I would have anticipated, but here we are.
I would far rather see SCOTUS do a 180 on gerrymandering and essentially ban extreme gerrymandering! It’s a major problem for American democracy that fewer and fewer Congressional races are competitive. Likewise with state legislative seats.
I wouldn't even call it a 180; if a national ban on political gerrymandering came up in the Congress today, pretty much all Dems would vote on it. We're just playing by their rules instead of ours.
I hope Patty Garcia is the very first incumbent to receive a primary challenger next cycle. This anti-democratic bullshit is disqualifying in this era.
Technically it's not anti-democratic because others could have filed but didn't but of course it's sneaky as eff. She's never had to earn her stripes politically so trust she'll have a target on her.
I’m curious as to exactly who may challenge her. Chuy’s status as a progressive pretty much ensures a challenger from the center will appear (assuming his CoS is one), with Ray Lopez being an obvious centrist pick (he tried to primary Chuy at one point), but from what I’ve seen on Bluesky the left isn’t happy either and is openly threatening a primary challenge.
Does Carlos Ramirez Rosa still live in the district? I know he tried briefly back in 2018 — if he’s still in the district I could see him making another go.
I could see Chicago Councilman Byron Sigcho-Lopez running. He's to the left of Chuy and has endorsed primary challengers to Illinois House members in the past.
I don't think Moulton has much of a shot, unless Markey has a major health scare in the next year.
That said, the only people he is holding back are other progressives. He is not scaring off the centrists, but he is probably the main thing preventing Pressley from running and likely winning.
It’s time for that wonderful Election Day tradition: anecdotal turnout reports!!!
It was a 30-minute wait to vote here in bluey-blue DeKalb County, Georgia, with the PSC seats the only things on the ballot. Granted, a big part of the wait was that they have many fewer than normal voting sites since it’s an off-off year election.
I'm not being hyperbolic when I say I've seen more grassroots enthusiasm about the PSC race than the POTUS race a year ago. I think we're going to win.
Nah. The Election Day turnout seems to match the general Election Day. So probably we will see about 1m votes +/- cast today. The early votes however, are only about 640k, not 4m like last year.
Overall it looks like 20-25% turnout rate. Nothing like over 70% for the general election.
I'm not saying turnout will exceed last November of course, but I'm seeing not just base folks but usually apolitical folks encouraging people to vote for the Ds in the PSC. I didn't see that for Harris last year.
purple east Ventura County, CA: hung around the outside of my polling place for about 30 minutes. Steady trickle of voters but no long lines. I'm stereotyping and guessing but I'd say that this group is 2/3 GOP... but I've been knocking doors in the same area the last wknd, and most Dem-ID'd voters have already voted.
I'm hopeful about the VA elections. I was a poll greeter for the morning shift today in a deep-blue chunk of VA. there was a steady trickle of people, a lot of of whom were planning to vote for the democratic candidates, including Jay Jones.
I won't be surprised either way. There's a credible justification for both outcomes, with the polling being a bit all over the place but largely close between them.
I always love finding anomalies while doing elections research. The one I'm currently intrigued by is this guy named Gavin Solomon from New York, who runs what seems to be a healthcare supply drop-shipping company. He has filed to run in *74* House seats since July, covering at least one in every state AND territory (and a whopping 12 in New York alone).
Awful, just a terrible senator for New York.
Schumer’s losing it.
Sooner he gets primaried out of office, the better.
the decadence of nj one party rule cannot be overstated. Micah Rasmussen, head of the institute for politics at rider university has given many talks about how in a one-party state, that's highly educated but also dependent on a multi-racial coalition, you cannot afford to ever rest on your laurels...(looking at you new york). Contrast that with one party rule in states that are not highly educated with coalitions that do not rely on more than one racial group, i.e., the deep south
NJ has also had severe problems with corruption.
you're correct. Minnesota seems to be the exception when it comes to ethics in state politics (just on our side, ethical and norm coleman are words not meant to be associated)
that said I think NJ can be brought back under the leadership of Chairman Jones. He seems to get "it" more than any of his recent predecessors.
Chaz Nuttycombe is saying on X that rural counties are not showing up and the Operation 2021 ones aren’t either.
Virginia may get a clean sweep after all.
In NJ turnout is running better than in 2021. Maybe 20% better.
UPDATE: Essex County (Mikie Sherrill's home county) crosses 2021 turnout at 4pm update
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1985816680535376145
worked a shift at the Essex County Courthouse this morning, as a lawyer volunteer for the ECDO, it was a beautiful thing to see, god how I wish these numbers were coming in last year instead, but as ted kennedy said "the cause endures"
everyone at my firm is buzzing about who's going to win, but @umichvoter as you indicated has shown it seems knock on wood, we are looking ok in the garden state
@umichvoter indicated that Essex County has hit 105% turnout already compared to 2021, which was 10 min ago.
I really want to see Miyares lose. That's all I'm rooting for.
Virginia deserves an AG that'll fight against a lawless president, not kiss his ass.
I think ultimately that will be what carries Jones over the line
I think it'll be the size of Spanbarger's victory that carries him over the line.
Hard to give a precise number for this, but yeah 5+ would certainly do it. That said, the current results give pretty strong credence to the idea that Spanbarger is going to (barely) carry Jones across the line.
I think those two things kind of go hand in hand lol
I'm sorry, a 750,000 discrepancy in Rockland County alone? Are they claiming that? Because the total population of Rockland is way under that.
Lmao this is due to Hasidic strategic voting. For example: Kiryas Joel voted for Democrat Pat Ryan for House but Trump for President.
To clarify, you are talking specifically about Haredim/Chasidim, not Modern Orthodox people, a majority of whom vote Republican in the U.S. but who are not close to monolithic.
Former vice president Dick Cheney passed away earlier this morning.
The only time I ever saw him in person was when he came to speak at my college, and his car was thoroughly egged on its way out.
My momma always told me when you can't say something kind, don't say anything at all, so my trap is shut.
Well, I credit him with caring about American democracy in the age of Trump. No further comment.
Very unlikely redemption story. Partial redemption anyway.
Yes, and very partial.
And his endorsement likely hurt us, lol
We live in interesting times when people like Bill Kristol, Dick Cheney, etc. wound up on our side of fighting Trumpism.
Agreed. Sad that that is where the bar is, but he did at least clear it...
It will be interesting to see whether he is accorded the usual memorial honors of a former vice president and member of Congress.
From Trump? Not a chance! He's almost guaranteed to symbolically piss on his grave.
I am very confident that the President will give him all the respect and decorum that is due.
Yeah, President Dubya, not President Tr*mp...
Just FYI--the proper term would be that Garcia was elected to the Cook County Board. It's the Board of Commissioners, not a Commission.
And that it's really not a substantive legislative body aside from the president. His real teeth-cutting was as a state senator and alder.
Thank you!
The Indiana legislature has decided not to meet in a special session in November, citing taxpayer expense for a special session. Instead, they plan to convene in December as an early start to the 2026 legislative session and end the 2026 year early. Re-districting is still on the table.
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2025/11/03/indiana-lawmakers-set-mid-cycle-redistricting-work-for-december/?emci=bc6b6134-dbb8-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&emdi=d8da26fa-79b9-f011-8e61-6045bded8ba4&ceid=630426
Garcia setting up his preferred candidate is one of those legal, but sleazy moves that drive cynicism. But I’d prefer that to him holding the seat into his 80s like many Democrats do.
its a very, very Chicago thing to do... downright Aldermanic!
The only good thing about this move would be that there would be one less primary for AIPAC to meddle in but I don't like this undemocratic move.
Happy Election Day!
The final PDI ballot return report shows California Democrats maintaining over 50% of the ballots returned so far--a higher share than past Election Day ballot reports, including 2024 (which was more like 48%). Overall voter turnout so far is 29%.
I posted some screenshots on BlueSky here if folks want to see more detailed data: https://bsky.app/profile/awildlibappeared.bsky.social/post/3m4ssekwhvs2w
I'm scared to say anything positive, but if I had to make a bet, I'd bet on Yes passing with over 60% of the vote.
My current guess is 62% YES for Prop 50. It will be interesting to see the difference in turnout between Blue and Red parts of the Golden State.
Yeah, I've been very curious about this too...
I took a year off of politics after 2024, and that one year mark is today. I'm not sure how much I will be active in my return, but we shall see.
Welcome back
Welcome back. You have nearly a year to gin up your Minnesota legislature preview.
Not even close. I always release my initial one after the filing deadline, and start working on it a month before that. So I have about 6 months until I have to start in early May. The initial one takes way longer than the post-primary and pre-general editions, as the latter are just edits/updates instead of from scratch.
Glad to see you.
Welcome back! Breaks are so important. I took like a month off this summer, feel like I should have taken more. It's a good time to be back, the mood is radically different and all signs point to Republicans having a pretty bad night. If you had told me a year ago Newsom was going to put forward a measure to intentionally and openly gerrymander the state, and that it would be headed towards an easy passage, I never would have believed you. The context is pretty dire and also not something I would have anticipated, but here we are.
I would far rather see SCOTUS do a 180 on gerrymandering and essentially ban extreme gerrymandering! It’s a major problem for American democracy that fewer and fewer Congressional races are competitive. Likewise with state legislative seats.
I wouldn't even call it a 180; if a national ban on political gerrymandering came up in the Congress today, pretty much all Dems would vote on it. We're just playing by their rules instead of ours.
I guess we will see tonight, but I expect I have too much PTSD to ever enter the Discord server again!
Welcome back. I've been known to take some months off from politics but never a full year. I admire your resolve.
Me too OG. Me too.
I hope Patty Garcia is the very first incumbent to receive a primary challenger next cycle. This anti-democratic bullshit is disqualifying in this era.
Should be, but I don't think it will be if her constituents feel she's done a good job.
Technically it's not anti-democratic because others could have filed but didn't but of course it's sneaky as eff. She's never had to earn her stripes politically so trust she'll have a target on her.
I’m curious as to exactly who may challenge her. Chuy’s status as a progressive pretty much ensures a challenger from the center will appear (assuming his CoS is one), with Ray Lopez being an obvious centrist pick (he tried to primary Chuy at one point), but from what I’ve seen on Bluesky the left isn’t happy either and is openly threatening a primary challenge.
Does Carlos Ramirez Rosa still live in the district? I know he tried briefly back in 2018 — if he’s still in the district I could see him making another go.
I could see Chicago Councilman Byron Sigcho-Lopez running. He's to the left of Chuy and has endorsed primary challengers to Illinois House members in the past.
Carlos is in Ramirez's district. Ray Lopez is DOA, considering his support for Trump's raids.
https://x.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1985705206491873731
"SCOOP
@J_Insider
via
@marcrod97
: "Before denouncing AIPAC, Moulton sought group’s endorsement for Senate campaign"
"Moulton turned against the group when it was unable to guarantee him an endorsement upon the launch of his Senate campaign""
Seth Moulton is a JOKE!
I need Ed Markey to smell the coffee and retire instead of open the door for Seth Moulton to being a Senator for the next 20+ years.
I don't think Moulton has much of a shot, unless Markey has a major health scare in the next year.
That said, the only people he is holding back are other progressives. He is not scaring off the centrists, but he is probably the main thing preventing Pressley from running and likely winning.
It’s time for that wonderful Election Day tradition: anecdotal turnout reports!!!
It was a 30-minute wait to vote here in bluey-blue DeKalb County, Georgia, with the PSC seats the only things on the ballot. Granted, a big part of the wait was that they have many fewer than normal voting sites since it’s an off-off year election.
DeKalb has this real time waiting/turnout map.
https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/4c790bbc7bca4d748a71d69429904d6c
I'm not being hyperbolic when I say I've seen more grassroots enthusiasm about the PSC race than the POTUS race a year ago. I think we're going to win.
Grassroots needs to get it's priorities straight if true.
I feel like it’s the candidate’s job to win over the grassroots and not the other way around
It's everyone's job!
Nah. The Election Day turnout seems to match the general Election Day. So probably we will see about 1m votes +/- cast today. The early votes however, are only about 640k, not 4m like last year.
Overall it looks like 20-25% turnout rate. Nothing like over 70% for the general election.
Hopefully that bodes well for the more energized side, i.e. us
I'm not saying turnout will exceed last November of course, but I'm seeing not just base folks but usually apolitical folks encouraging people to vote for the Ds in the PSC. I didn't see that for Harris last year.
purple east Ventura County, CA: hung around the outside of my polling place for about 30 minutes. Steady trickle of voters but no long lines. I'm stereotyping and guessing but I'd say that this group is 2/3 GOP... but I've been knocking doors in the same area the last wknd, and most Dem-ID'd voters have already voted.
I'm hopeful about the VA elections. I was a poll greeter for the morning shift today in a deep-blue chunk of VA. there was a steady trickle of people, a lot of of whom were planning to vote for the democratic candidates, including Jay Jones.
Probably. I'd be pretty shocked if Jones didn't win.
I really wouldn't be.
I won't be surprised either way. There's a credible justification for both outcomes, with the polling being a bit all over the place but largely close between them.
I think he'll likely win, riding on Spanbarger's coattails, but I expect her margin to be in double digits and his to be 1-2 points, tops.
I always love finding anomalies while doing elections research. The one I'm currently intrigued by is this guy named Gavin Solomon from New York, who runs what seems to be a healthcare supply drop-shipping company. He has filed to run in *74* House seats since July, covering at least one in every state AND territory (and a whopping 12 in New York alone).
https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?q=Solomon,%20Gavin
He's the Rocky De La Fuente of this cycle