Morning Digest: Fresh off a landslide, Wisconsin liberals land their next Supreme Court hopeful

Lyndsey Brunette could give progressives a giant 6-1 majority in 2027

Clark County Circuit Court Judge Lyndsey Brunette, liberal candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. (Credit: Lyndsey Brunette campaign)

Leading Off

WI Supreme Court

Wisconsin liberals landed their first major candidate for next year’s state Supreme Court race on Thursday when Lyndsey Brunette, a judge on the Clark County Circuit Court, announced she would run to replace a retiring conservative justice.

“Whether it’s protecting personal healthcare rights, safeguarding voting rights, or supporting public safety, we need to protect a majority on our state Supreme Court who will fairly and impartially uphold our laws,” Brunette said in a statement.

Brunette launched her campaign just over a week after Judge Chris Taylor, a fellow progressive, won another Supreme Court seat in a 60-40 blowout, a result that expanded the body’s liberal majority from 4-3 to 5-2.

If Brunette wins next April’s officially nonpartisan election to succeed Justice Annette Ziegler—another conservative who announced last month that she would not seek a new 10-year term—that advantage would balloon to 6-1. Such an outcome would leave Brian Hagedorn as the only remaining member of the high court’s once-dominant right-wing bloc.

But Hagedorn, whose narrow 2019 victory made him the last conservative to win a race for the Supreme Court, has frustrated his erstwhile allies by occasionally siding against them. His most prominent moment in the spotlight came in 2020 when he cast the crucial vote that kept the court from considering Donald Trump’s lawsuit aimed at overturning his defeat in the state.

A progressive victory would also mean that the conservatives, who are already stuck in the minority until 2030 at the earliest, wouldn’t have a chance to regain control of the court until at least 2033.

That timeline could prove to be important for numerous issues, including redistricting. The Supreme Court, which may hear pending lawsuits concerning the state’s current congressional map, could be called on to step in if the governor and legislature can’t agree on new electoral boundaries after the 2030 census.

It’s an unfamiliar—and deeply unwelcome—situation for conservatives, who controlled this swing state’s highest court from 2008 until 2023. While liberal candidates prevailed in several contests during that era, conservatives kept their majority by coming out on top in some excruciatingly tight contests.

Conservative Justice David Prosser famously won reelection 50.2 to 49.8 in a nationally watched 2011 race that took place less than a month after Republican Gov. Scott Walker signed the union-busting Act 10. Hagedorn would score an almost identical victory eight years later in a close race to succeed a retiring liberal justice, an outcome that left conservatives with an imposing 5-2 majority.

Almost no one, however, anticipated the dramatic changes that elections for the Supreme Court—and soon enough, the court itself—would experience.

In the spring of 2020, progressive Jill Karofsky unseated conservative Justice Dan Kelly, whom Walker had appointed in 2016 after Prosser stepped down midway through his term, in a 55-45 landslide.

Fellow progressive Janet Protasiewicz then won by an identical margin in 2023 against Kelly in a hard-fought contest that gave liberals a majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in 16 years.

Two years later, Susan Crawford, another liberal judge, overcame massive spending from Elon Musk to win her race by that now-familiar 55-45 margin, an outcome that preserved progressives’ hard-earned 4-3 majority.

But after three straight double-digit blowouts, conservative donors responded by keeping their wallets firmly shut and all but conceded this year’s race to Taylor well before Election Day.

Taylor’s 20–point victory over conservative Judge Maria Lazar, though, left Wisconsin Republicans deeply frustrated, and more than a few asked whether state party chair Brian Schimming should remain in charge.

“Anybody who runs a business, or anybody who runs a sports team, knows that the quarterback needs to win games in order to stay the quarterback,” an unnamed GOP leader told Politico. “And if we’re looking at this like a business, like an operation, we need our leaders to supply the infrastructure for victory.”

The last four Supreme Court elections, though, don’t leave Republicans with much reason to be optimistic about 2027, no matter who leads them.

The dynamics that once helped conservatives like Prosser and Hagedorn pull off narrow victories have changed. Liberal candidates have been buoyed by strong turnout in off-year elections, a trend that’s continued to help Democrats nationwide.

Progressive judicial candidates running in the years since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have also successfully made their support for abortion rights a centerpiece of their campaigns.

Brunette, who emphasized “protecting your personal healthcare rights” as one of her key issues in her launch video, is currently the only notable candidate running to replace Ziegler.

And while she’s getting an early start, no conservative candidates have publicly expressed interest in trying to break their side’s painful losing streak.

Anyone who sits out this contest, though, could instead choose to run in the spring of 2028 when Justice Rebecca Dallet, who is part of the progressive majority, is up for a new 10-year term.

Wisconsin will host still one more Supreme Court race before the decade is out. Hagedorn, who may soon be the last remaining conservative on the bench, is up for reelection in 2029. It remains to be seen how aggressively liberals try to target him, but his apostasies could also draw a challenge from a more stridently right-wing opponent.

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The Downballot Podcast

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Democrats kicked Eric Swalwell to the curb lightning-quick, and it’s a very good thing he’s gone. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the brave women who came forward to accuse Swalwell of sexual assault and wound up ending his political career. We also assess the fallout from his departure—and how it differs so starkly compared to the way Republicans dealt with a miscreant of their own, Tony Gonzales.

The Davids then talk with Maryam Jazini, the senior director of litigation at Common Cause, about the Justice Department’s efforts to wrest confidential vote data from nearly every state. Jazini explains why the DOJ’s crusade is such a dangerous component of Donald Trump’s hopes of asserting federal control over our elections. But groups like Common Cause are fighting back—and winning in court.

P.S. The Downballot podcast is taking next week off, but to attend the live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast with Nir and G. Elliott Morris on April 23 in Washington, DC, please RSVP here!

Election Night

NJ-11

Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia is on track to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress when New Jersey’s 11th District hosts a rare Thursday election.

Mejia is the heavy favorite over her Republican opponent, Randolph City Councilman Joe Hathaway, whom she’s outraised 2-to-1. The race has seen limited outside spending, and Hathaway never responded to the only poll of the race, a Mejia internal that had her up 53-36.

The district’s political lean also favors Democrats. According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 11th District by a 53-45 margin in 2024, and Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent 57-42 last year, per the New Jersey Globe.

Mejia narrowly won the February special election primary over better-funded opponents in an upset, but she’s drawn no notable intra-party opposition in the race for a full term. Assuming she prevails in the regular primary in June, she’d face Hathaway again in November, as he’s once again the only Republican on the ballot.

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

A new poll finds a 51-45 majority of Virginia voters in favor of a constitutional amendment that would allow the state to adopt a new Democratic-drawn congressional map in time for this year’s elections. The survey, which was conducted by the political analysis website State Navigate, was released with just under a week to go before next Tuesday’s referendum.

The numbers are almost identical to the 52-47 majority for the “yes” side that Braun Research found at the end of March in its poll for the Washington Post and George Mason University.

The only publicly available survey that was conducted in the intervening time came from the Republican firm Neighborhood Research, which found “no” ahead by a slim 46-45 spread.

However, this poll simply asked respondents, “Will you (or did you) vote yes or no on the redistricting referendum?” Both State Navigate and Braun, by contrast, used the exact language that will appear on ballots on April 21.

Throughout the race, the Democratic campaign to pass the amendment has continued to decisively outspend the “no” side, though Republicans have narrowed the gulf somewhat in recent weeks.

CNN, citing data from AdImpact, reports that Democrats had outspent the GOP about $48 million to $17 million as of Monday. The “yes” side, by contrast, enjoyed a $33 million to $3 million advantage at the start of the month.

Conservatives have argued that the state’s Democratic-led government is trying to ram through a gerrymander just six years after Virginians overwhelmingly approved an amendment to establish an independent redistricting panel to draw the lines.

One spot from Virginians for Fair Maps, which is the main group on the “no” side, opens with old footage of Barack Obama saying, “Because of things like political gerrymandering, our parties have moved further and further apart, and it’s harder and harder to find common ground.”

The narrator jumps in, “That’s why two-thirds of Virginians voted to end partisan gerrymandering. But Richmond politicians want to shred our bipartisan process and draw maps for themselves again.”

Meanwhile, mailers from a different group led by former Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza have used photos of Ku Klux Klan members to urge Black voters to oppose the amendment—an effort that civil rights leaders have slammed.

The “yes” side, by contrast, argues that Virginia needs to push back on Donald Trump and his allies’ quest to gerrymander congressional districts across the country.

“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama says in a commercial he filmed this year for Virginians for Fair Elections. The former president urges viewers, “Help put our elections back on a level playing field and let voters decide, not politicians.”

Governors

CA-Gov

The California Teachers Association has endorsed billionaire Tom Steyer’s bid for governor, making it the first major player that had previously backed former Rep. Eric Swalwell to re-engage with the race following the ex-congressman’s abrupt departure following sexual assault allegations earlier this week.

On Friday evening, just hours after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported on the accusations, the CTA withdrew its support from Swalwell, as did every other union that had endorsed him.

MS-Gov

Former Mississippi House Speaker Philip Gunn announced Tuesday that he was joining next year’s race to succeed termed-out Gov. Tate Reeves, a fellow Republican.

Gunn became the first Republican to lead the lower chamber since Reconstruction after his party took control following the 2011 elections. During the ensuing years, he cemented his status as one of the most powerful people in state government.

Gunn, though, was one of the many Magnolia State Republicans who frequently clashed with Reeves over policy and personality. There was even speculation that Gunn could challenge the governor for renomination in 2023, though he ultimately decided not to seek any office that year.

Gunn joins state Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson, who began running for governor in June of last year, in the 2027 primary. Several other Republicans are also considering running to lead this conservative state.

Most of the prospective GOP field consists of current or recent officeholders, though Mississippi Today writes that former Rep. Gregg Harper is also considering a comeback. Harper, who was elected to Congress in 2008 and retired a decade later, does not appear to have said anything publicly about his interest.

House

CA-14

Political strategist Matt Ortega, one of several Democrats running to succeed former Rep. Eric Swalwell, says he won’t run in the Aug. 18 special election for the final months of Swalwell’s term. Candidates have until the April 23 filing deadline to decide.

FL-20

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who was set to go on trial on federal corruption charges next week, now won’t face trial until February, after a judge agreed to a joint request from the prosecution and defense to delay the proceedings.

Cherfilus-McCormick was indicted last year for allegedly using stolen taxpayer funds to finance her victorious 2021 primary campaign. Last month, a bipartisan panel of the House Ethics Committee found her guilty of 25 counts of misconduct related to the same affair.

The committee has scheduled a hearing for Tuesday to determine what sanctions to apply, which could include expulsion.

MA-06

Former congressional aide Rick Jakious said Wednesday that he was dropping out of the crowded contest to replace Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who was Jakious’ longtime boss.

Jakious’ departure leaves seven Democrats competing in the Sept. 1 primary for Massachusetts’ 6th District, a safely blue constituency that includes the region north of Boston known as the North Shore. Moulton opted to challenge Sen. Ed Markey for renomination rather than seek reelection.

MN-02

Republican Tyler Kistner said Wednesday that he was ending his third campaign for Minnesota’s open 2nd District because he would be deployed overseas as a member of the Marine Reserve. Kistner was the GOP nominee in both 2020 and 2022 against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, who is now running for the Senate.

State Sen. Eric Pratt is now the only notable Republican running to flip the 2nd, a constituency in the Twin Cities suburbs that backed Kamala Harris 52-46. Kistner, however, was anything but supportive of his now-former rival.

“We will not be endorsing Eric Pratt due to his history of bashing President Trump and extremely weak record in the legislature,” campaign strategist Billy Grant told the Minnesota Star Tribune.

Minnesota’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 2, which gives any hardliners a bit of time to decide whether to take on Pratt.

Three prominent Democrats are competing in the Aug. 11 primary: state Rep. Kaela Berg, state Sen. Matt Klein, and former state Sen. Matt Little.

NE-02

Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh is pushing back against attacks that his campaign for the House could jeopardize the status of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as a “blue dot” in the Electoral College with a new ad featuring two of his colleagues in the legislature.

“I fought to protect the blue dot. So have six of my Senate colleagues who are proudly supporting John Kavanaugh for Congress,” says Sen. Ashlei Spivey. “Don’t buy the lies from the MAGA Republicans about losing the blue dot or a woman’s right to choose.”

“These dark-money super PACs are just spreading MAGA Republican talking points,” continues Sen. George Dungan. “We know Nebraska Democrats will pick up additional seats this election, securing the blue dot.”

“That’s why we trust John Kavanaugh,” concludes Spivey, “and so should you.”

A third-party group supporting Cavanaugh’s chief rival in the Democratic primary for the open 2nd District, political strategist Denise Powell, recently began airing ads warning that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would be able to appoint a replacement for the senator should he win election to Congress in November.

That in turn could strengthen the hand of Republicans in the state Senate, who fell just short of overcoming a filibuster to pass legislation ending Nebraska’s system of awarding an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district last year. While the GOP occupies 33 of the Senate’s 49 seats in the unicameral legislature—the exact number needed to defeat a filibuster—two Republicans broke ranks to thwart the bill.

However, as Dungan notes, Democrats could make the matter moot by flipping enough seats to break the GOP’s supermajority, which would ensure they could maintain future filibusters without Republican support.

NJ-07

Republican Rep. Tom Kean hasn’t voted on Capitol Hill in a month due to an unspecified medical condition, and it’s not clear when he’ll return to work, the New Jersey Globe reports.

A spokesperson told the Globe, “He’s expected to be totally fine and back to a full schedule soon” but did not offer further information about what they called a “personal medical issue.” The outlet notes that after Kean first began missing votes last month, his office issued a similar statement.

Kean, 57, faces a difficult reelection campaign in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, where a large number of Democrats are vying to take him on.

PA-03

Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker endorsed state Sen. Sharif Street on Wednesday ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd Congressional District, which is one of the most Democratic constituencies in the nation.

Street, a former chair of the state Democratic Party, faces two intraparty opponents in the race to replace retiring Rep. Dwight Evans: physician Ala Stanford, who has Evans’ backing, and state Rep. Chris Rabb.

UT-01

Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin posted online comments insulting Mormons and joking about sexual assault more than a decade ago, according to archives unearthed by Punchbowl News.

Among other things, Blouin called the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-day Saints “a bunch of bigoted assholes” and said it’s “DEFINITELY just a front for the largest US drug cartel.” He also wrote that “slapping girl’s asses as you run by … shouldn’t land you in jail or anything by any means.”

In a statement, Blouin responded by saying his comments were “vulgar, stupid, and reflect a version of me in my early twenties that I’m ashamed of and have thankfully evolved past.” He added, “To the people I hurt with my words, I sincerely apologize.”

Blouin is one of the leading Democrats seeking Utah’s redrawn 1st District, which became solidly blue thanks to court-ordered redistricting last year. A few days before Punchbowl’s report, one of his former rivals, state Sen Kathleen Riebe, dropped out of the primary and endorsed the frontrunner, former Rep. Ben McAdams, calling Blouin “too inflammatory” and a “loose cannon.”

Poll Pile

• MA-Sen (D): Suffolk University for the Boston Globe:

  • Ed Markey (inc): 47, Seth Moulton: 30. (Nov.: 45-22 Markey)

• MI-Sen (D): Data for Progress for Zeteo and Drop Site News:

  • Haley Stevens: 23, Abdul El-Sayed: 22, Mallory McMorrow: 22, undecided: 33.

• MD-06 (D): Hart Research for April McClain Delaney:

  • April McClain Delaney (inc): 49, David Trone: 37.

  • The poll was in the field March 16-21.

• PA-03 (D): Public Policy Polling for 314 Action (pro-Stanford):

  • Ala Stanford: 28, Chris Rabb: 23, Sharif Street: 16.

The last Digest incorrectly stated how long it had been since a Republican last represented New York’s 4th Congressional District before Anthony D’Esposito won in 2022. D’Esposito was the district’s first Republican congressman in 26 years, not 16.