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@CookPolitical

Senate ratings changes:

#NCSen: Toss Up -> Lean D

#GASen: Toss Up -> Lean D

#OHSen: Lean R -> Toss Up

#NESen: Solid R -> Likely R

Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup - just short of 4 they need

Kildere53's avatar

It's been a good April so far in terms of elections - Chris Taylor was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and Viktor Orban was ousted in Hungary. The only thing we still need is for Virginia to ratify the new Democratic gerrymander, and then we'll have three from three for big elections in April.

And I was looking more carefully at the results from Hungary. 20 constituencies were won by TISZA with less than 50% of the vote (not counting the 13 that Fidesz won). Considering the gerrymandering of rural Hungary (which still contains 2/3 of the Hungarian population), and the county-level results, I estimate that TISZA would've had to win the popular vote by at least 2% in order to win a majority of seats. The electoral system still slightly favored Fidesz, it's just that TISZA won by such a large margin that it ultimately didn't matter.

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