I'm surprised Alaska's rating didn't change yet. Would be nice to get the 4 or more pickup without OH and FL (since those seats will be up again in 2028).
GA & NC are for sure lean D. NH & MI are not completely safe holds for Ds, though.
I know people will continue to have Platner reservations, but I think ME is lean D as well.
OH & AK are tossups, and IA probably is too. Though we will run stronger in the Gov race.
And I think Talarico has a real shot in TX.
Anything beyond the top 6 is gonna be real tough. Though if Trump continues to spiral (and I think he will), then NE, FL and beyond may come into play (SC?).
Good morning, my fellow North Americans. In anticipation of the byelections tonight that may give the Liberal Party a majority, please rise for the Canadian national anthem:
Polls close at 8:30 ET in all three ridings. For results, Elections Canada will post a tracker on their site here https://elections.ca/home.aspx if you want to see numbers refresh every 90 seconds. I'm sure there will be lots of livestreaming and other coverage, as I have mentioned before, one I like in particular is The Numbers with Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier, who have a stream scheduled tonight at https://www.youtube.com/live/6eRkn-BQlWI?si=Cur5oHdJEyvBMmC6
Yes, as you can tell by their names, it will be a bilingual stream so those of you brushing up on your conversational French in preparation of moving here will have a chance to practice.
It's been a good April so far in terms of elections - Chris Taylor was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and Viktor Orban was ousted in Hungary. The only thing we still need is for Virginia to ratify the new Democratic gerrymander, and then we'll have three from three for big elections in April.
And I was looking more carefully at the results from Hungary. 20 constituencies were won by TISZA with less than 50% of the vote (not counting the 13 that Fidesz won). Considering the gerrymandering of rural Hungary (which still contains 2/3 of the Hungarian population), and the county-level results, I estimate that TISZA would've had to win the popular vote by at least 2% in order to win a majority of seats. The electoral system still slightly favored Fidesz, it's just that TISZA won by such a large margin that it ultimately didn't matter.
It's possible Mejia could underperform slightly, given the highest she performed in polling was 53%, and centrists and conservatives aren't big fans of her progressivism.
Iowa: GBAO has Sand up 8 in the governor’s race and Hinson up only 3/4 in the Senate race. I think most of us expected Sand to do better than the Senate nominee, but not by double digits. I wonder if our Senate nominee gets a name rec/rally around the flag bump after the primary. Either way, ugly poll for Republicans all around in a R+11 electorate.
I would like to see some articles about what's happening in the districts and states that are not now in the running for election. Alabama's governor race, governor races in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Senate race in South Dakota with the independent candidate, etc. I think Ds will win many more offices than currently predicted. Democrats in the blue states and in those states where citizens can put issues on the ballot are missing the boat if they don't push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars which are needed to make up for Trump's cuts to food programs and other programs. This reform also results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices, thereby helping reduce the GOP dominance of local offices. It also helps prevent extremists from getting control of school boards.
CA Gov: Although Trump had endorsed Steve Hilton, the state Republican party, at its convention this past weekend, did not. Indeed, Chad Bianco received more votes, leading Hilton 49%-44%. 60% was needed for an endorsement.
Not sure if this counts, but on the topic of Cassidy placing third in the primary for the first time since 1944, attorney Mike Lee (the eventual winner) and businessman Tim Bridgewater *both* performed better than Sen. Bob Bennett at the 2010 Republican convention, denying Bennett a spot on the ballot.
@CookPolitical
Senate ratings changes:
#NCSen: Toss Up -> Lean D
#GASen: Toss Up -> Lean D
#OHSen: Lean R -> Toss Up
#NESen: Solid R -> Likely R
Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup - just short of 4 they need
Still early enough to expand that pickup to 4 or more.
I shouldn’t get greedy, but I’m betting we’ll get all 6, and maybe more
I think AK will be considered a toss-up by summertime. Maybe IA and TX too.
I'm surprised Alaska's rating didn't change yet. Would be nice to get the 4 or more pickup without OH and FL (since those seats will be up again in 2028).
Me, too.
GA & NC are for sure lean D. NH & MI are not completely safe holds for Ds, though.
I know people will continue to have Platner reservations, but I think ME is lean D as well.
OH & AK are tossups, and IA probably is too. Though we will run stronger in the Gov race.
And I think Talarico has a real shot in TX.
Anything beyond the top 6 is gonna be real tough. Though if Trump continues to spiral (and I think he will), then NE, FL and beyond may come into play (SC?).
Good morning, my fellow North Americans. In anticipation of the byelections tonight that may give the Liberal Party a majority, please rise for the Canadian national anthem:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPS9yam6M0s
(wipes a single tear)
Polls close at 8:30 ET in all three ridings. For results, Elections Canada will post a tracker on their site here https://elections.ca/home.aspx if you want to see numbers refresh every 90 seconds. I'm sure there will be lots of livestreaming and other coverage, as I have mentioned before, one I like in particular is The Numbers with Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier, who have a stream scheduled tonight at https://www.youtube.com/live/6eRkn-BQlWI?si=Cur5oHdJEyvBMmC6
Yes, as you can tell by their names, it will be a bilingual stream so those of you brushing up on your conversational French in preparation of moving here will have a chance to practice.
I thought the youtube link would take us to "Canada's Really Big" by The Arrogant Worms.
It's been a good April so far in terms of elections - Chris Taylor was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and Viktor Orban was ousted in Hungary. The only thing we still need is for Virginia to ratify the new Democratic gerrymander, and then we'll have three from three for big elections in April.
And I was looking more carefully at the results from Hungary. 20 constituencies were won by TISZA with less than 50% of the vote (not counting the 13 that Fidesz won). Considering the gerrymandering of rural Hungary (which still contains 2/3 of the Hungarian population), and the county-level results, I estimate that TISZA would've had to win the popular vote by at least 2% in order to win a majority of seats. The electoral system still slightly favored Fidesz, it's just that TISZA won by such a large margin that it ultimately didn't matter.
Don't forget Thursday's NJ 11 special election.
I'm not expecting a great deal of drama in that particular election, at least not for the general.
It's possible Mejia could underperform slightly, given the highest she performed in polling was 53%, and centrists and conservatives aren't big fans of her progressivism.
I believe Tisza won 93 of the 106 FPTP directly elected posts, though obviously not with a majority in some of them.
And 45 of the 93 party seats. The party seats is where the fix was in. Still more than Fidesz, and MHM win 7, I think. But less than half.
Still waiting to see Talarico and Peltola's hauls from Q1!
Peltola raised $8.9 million.
Did that just get announced or did I miss it?
I saw it today. Link to Politico is below.
Iowa: GBAO has Sand up 8 in the governor’s race and Hinson up only 3/4 in the Senate race. I think most of us expected Sand to do better than the Senate nominee, but not by double digits. I wonder if our Senate nominee gets a name rec/rally around the flag bump after the primary. Either way, ugly poll for Republicans all around in a R+11 electorate.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019d-8400-d182-a9fd-b63c76ae0000
Does anyone have any predictions/estimates for the Q1 fundraising in the target states (AK, TX, NE, OH, FL, NC, IA, ME)
AK Sen: Mary Peltola (D) raised $8.9 million in 1Q. Truly an amazing number.
Sullivan (R) raised $2.1 and has $7.5 million COH. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/13/senate-midterms-peltola-fundraising-sullivan-alaska-00868627
That is excellent, raised more than Sullivan has on hand in 1 quarter is just brilliant!
I would like to see some articles about what's happening in the districts and states that are not now in the running for election. Alabama's governor race, governor races in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Senate race in South Dakota with the independent candidate, etc. I think Ds will win many more offices than currently predicted. Democrats in the blue states and in those states where citizens can put issues on the ballot are missing the boat if they don't push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars which are needed to make up for Trump's cuts to food programs and other programs. This reform also results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices, thereby helping reduce the GOP dominance of local offices. It also helps prevent extremists from getting control of school boards.
CA Gov: Although Trump had endorsed Steve Hilton, the state Republican party, at its convention this past weekend, did not. Indeed, Chad Bianco received more votes, leading Hilton 49%-44%. 60% was needed for an endorsement.
Not sure if this counts, but on the topic of Cassidy placing third in the primary for the first time since 1944, attorney Mike Lee (the eventual winner) and businessman Tim Bridgewater *both* performed better than Sen. Bob Bennett at the 2010 Republican convention, denying Bennett a spot on the ballot.
Steyer now the front runner for Dems ????? Asking from Long Island
Probably him and Porter
Looks that way. Would like to see Becerra get a boost from all this. He's the candidate I'd vote for if I lived in California.
Bill Cassidy has to be hoping that Trump will dispatch J.D. Vance to Louisiana to campaign for Julie Letlow the way he did for Viktor Orban.
https://www.theverge.com/science/910326/iran-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-feedstock-food-crisis
Class 2 is the worst Senate class to make a farm crisis. GJ Trump.
Trump can solve any fertilizer shortage all by himself.
He's not psycologically capable of publicly taking a loss.
Winning!