I'm surprised Alaska's rating didn't change yet. Would be nice to get the 4 or more pickup without OH and FL (since those seats will be up again in 2028).
GA & NC are for sure lean D. NH & MI are not completely safe holds for Ds, though.
I know people will continue to have Platner reservations, but I think ME is lean D as well.
OH & AK are tossups, and IA probably is too. Though we will run stronger in the Gov race.
And I think Talarico has a real shot in TX.
Anything beyond the top 6 is gonna be real tough. Though if Trump continues to spiral (and I think he will), then NE, FL and beyond may come into play (SC?).
Kelly Ayotte is just bitter that the student vote cost her her Senate seat in 2016.
But this will have only a minor impact on turnout, since most college students have driver's licenses that they use as a photo ID. And I highly doubt they would try to prohibit out-of-state driver's licenses from being used, since that would affect a lot more people than just college students.
I wouldn't call NH-Sen safe for us, but I'd be absolutely and utterly shocked if we didn't win it.
NH has one of the most elastic electorates in the country. The voters here shift even more strongly with national trends. We're all expecting a blue wave this year; if so, that should be bigger in NH than in most states.
If Sununu has decided to make his comeback bid in 2022 against Hassan then maybe things would have gone differently. Hard to see it happening in 2028 though.
Ratings people are reluctant to shift a race away while there is an incumbent. If Alaska was an open seat but all data was otherwise identical (fundraising, polling) I suspect it would be at tossup already.
Ohio has Brown as a known quantity which makes them more comfortable shifting towards us for similar reasons.
I think the other 3 reach seats aren't going to be shifted to tossup until summer, maybe not even fall.
Just when we got rid of Manchin and Sinema, now expect Fetterman to block every major priority if we get the majority. Pray that the floor falls enough for Republicans that we get to 52 as a safeguard; ME, NC, AK, OH, TX would be likeliest. What a crazy freshman class that would be
It won't be nearly as bad when Trump is still Pres becausexwe cannot pass anything anyway. He'll just veto. '26 to '28 is damage control.
Jan '29 is the soonest we can actually start to fix things. Unless Trump/Vance both die simultaneously after Dems retake the House, which seems unlikely.
100% agree. Here's where the parties differ.. if Schumer were to do that, my guess is he would eventually cave and allow a floor vote after the GOP propaganda machine whips up a frenzy in OH, AK, TX, NC (assuming we win those seats) saying HOW DARE YOU DENY US A VOTE!!?!?! Hyporcisy be damned.
McConnell amazingly was able to keep even Murkowski and Collins in line on that. Literally the biggest failure of the Obama presidency was not going nuclear over the Scalia vote (I assume becasue everyone thought Hillary would win). A SCOTUS pick, especially one that changes partisan makeup, is worth shutting the government down for and not passing a bill until the vote is held.
Garland would have been a much better Supreme Court Judge than what he ended up being. He was too deliberate and cautious to be the Attorney General in the moment he was thrust into. His deliberation on the other hand, probably would have been very valuable on the Court. So sad! Another Republican blow against America as a nation. There could not be a more Anti-American Party in recent years than the Republican Party! I hope Trump is their death Nell!
As much as I dislike Fetterman, I do not believe he’s going to block a lot of the Democratic Party’s agenda except if it has to do with specific things Trump and his administration is pushing for.
Also, Fetterman was very critical of Noem’s handling of ICE and called her incompetent as DHS Secretary.
I'm in NC so I am most familiar with that race. I am a bit surprised that it was in Toss Up territory and is only now rated Lean D. Especially after the enthusiasm gap in the primaries for the Senate race. Roy Cooper pretty much had a lock on the Senate nomination yet Democratic ballots outpaced GOP ones by ~200K in the March 3rd primary.
But I don't think we can take anything for granted!
Our local Invisible chapter is gearing up for a massive postcard campaign with Postcards to Swing States to get out the vote (GOTV) here in NC. PTSS will undoubtedly include many more statewide campaigns as well as additional campaigns in swing congressional districts.
Although details are not yet available, I feel pretty confident that in addition to NC the other states (GA, IA, ME, and MI) that participated in News Boosting postcard campaigns will be included. I'd also expect to see statewide campaigns for AK, AZ, FL, OH, PA and TX since there are potential senate and/or Governor race pick ups or retentions - plus several other states I'm probably forgetting. Sign ups to receive postcards start on May 1st. If you aren't already on their mailing list, you can sign up here: https://secure.everyaction.com/RW-1oZB460GUwERdJLkCwA2
I also suspect that the recently launched "Women for Roy" coalition will have a postcard writing initiative just like the "Women for Stein" coalition did in 2024 although no details are yet available.
Good morning, my fellow North Americans. In anticipation of the byelections tonight that may give the Liberal Party a majority, please rise for the Canadian national anthem:
Polls close at 8:30 ET in all three ridings. For results, Elections Canada will post a tracker on their site here https://elections.ca/home.aspx if you want to see numbers refresh every 90 seconds. I'm sure there will be lots of livestreaming and other coverage, as I have mentioned before, one I like in particular is The Numbers with Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier, who have a stream scheduled tonight at https://www.youtube.com/live/6eRkn-BQlWI?si=Cur5oHdJEyvBMmC6
Yes, as you can tell by their names, it will be a bilingual stream so those of you brushing up on your conversational French in preparation of moving here will have a chance to practice.
Follow-up for those who might be interested. The Liberal candidate in University-Rosedale is Dr. Danielle Martin, who publicly supported Bernie Sanders Medicare for All bill in 2017 and testified at a Senate hearing on healthcare in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danielle_Martin
The Liberals have won University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, and therefore we have a majority government.
Terrebonne is leaning towards the Bloc Quebecois for now, and I would love to see the Liberals hold on, but this was always a reach seat, kind of like the seats in Oklahoma or South Carolina that Democrats have won in wave elections but could not keep.
It's been a good April so far in terms of elections - Chris Taylor was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and Viktor Orban was ousted in Hungary. The only thing we still need is for Virginia to ratify the new Democratic gerrymander, and then we'll have three from three for big elections in April.
And I was looking more carefully at the results from Hungary. 20 constituencies were won by TISZA with less than 50% of the vote (not counting the 13 that Fidesz won). Considering the gerrymandering of rural Hungary (which still contains 2/3 of the Hungarian population), and the county-level results, I estimate that TISZA would've had to win the popular vote by at least 2% in order to win a majority of seats. The electoral system still slightly favored Fidesz, it's just that TISZA won by such a large margin that it ultimately didn't matter.
It's possible Mejia could underperform slightly, given the highest she performed in polling was 53%, and centrists and conservatives aren't big fans of her progressivism.
Iowa: GBAO has Sand up 8 in the governor’s race and Hinson up only 3/4 in the Senate race. I think most of us expected Sand to do better than the Senate nominee, but not by double digits. I wonder if our Senate nominee gets a name rec/rally around the flag bump after the primary. Either way, ugly poll for Republicans all around in a R+11 electorate.
Here are the exact numbers. Although it’s overall a good poll, still a wee bit concerning that Dems aren’t leading in the generic ballot. That means one house pickup and maaaaaybe 2. And the senate seat is an uphill climb to 50%.
IA-04 is so lopsidedly Republican that it is pretty easy to imagine an R+2 generic ballot in the state resulting in Dems winning 3/4 seats. Something like IA-01 being D+1, IA-02 being D+5, IA-03 being D+5, and IA-04 being R+20 gets you there.
Ds won the statewide House vote in 2018 solely because Steve King performed so horribly there (won by like 3 points) for a Republican. Had a normal Republican been running there and won by the normal 20 point R margin, Rs would have won the House popular vote that year in Iowa despite winning just 1/4 seats.
Dems -2 on the generic ballot would definitely give Dems 2 seats, and probably 3 with IA-4 being one of the more conservative districts in the Midwest. And with an R+11 electorate, I think this poll might be a bit rosy for Republicans if anything. The electorate wasn't nearly that Republican in 2018, the last midterm with Trump in office. Things are decidedly worse nationally for him than 2018, and I imagine a much smaller partisan edge than 11 this year.
If he wins the primary, he’ll easily raise enough money to get his message out there. I don’t think any Democratic Senate nominees are going to be lacking for funds this year, even if Elon might outspend them.
I hate to say this, but as a person that is wheelchair bound and has cerebral palsy myself, Republicans and moderates listen to Josh because of the wheelchair. People always quiet down and listen to me when I am speaking as well.
Zach Wahls is a known entity amongst the activists that are voting in the primary. I would argue that he is the best known Democrat in the state ever since that speech. I think he is more well known than our former Attorney General and State Treasurer. He was even more well known than Rob Sand before Rob Sand started running for Governor.
It's an uphill climb for Turek for sure but I think once the primary is like a month away, people will really start paying attention to Turek's record and message. I can see him eeke out a win against Wahls if he plays his cards right
It is difficult because I believe people a very famous name in Iowa politics asked Josh Tutek to get into this race, and said famous name (I won't confirm. nor deny) could get Turek a win in the primary, but he wants to be fair to Zach Wahls.
Wahls is painting Turek as an insider when Zach has been raising money from political activists and insiders (good people, but still insiders) for 15 years, Wahls lived in Washington DC and has a huge rolodex, but he acts like he never met a wealthy out of state donor.
I bet a fair bit of the difference is down to each race having ongoing primaries. The Republican number will probably come up for governor once there's a nominee and likewise for the Democrats in the Senate.
Agreed. Although I easily believe Sand is at 50 in the governor's race already, and probably the frontrunner there despite the state's red lean. If he was able to hold on in 2022 despite the red in-state wave, he obviously has a lot of appeal that most Democrats in the state lack.
Voters are also more willing to vote for candidates from the other party at the local level than they are at the federal level. That gives Sand another advantage.
I would like to see some articles about what's happening in the districts and states that are not now in the running for election. Alabama's governor race, governor races in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Senate race in South Dakota with the independent candidate, etc. I think Ds will win many more offices than currently predicted. Democrats in the blue states and in those states where citizens can put issues on the ballot are missing the boat if they don't push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars which are needed to make up for Trump's cuts to food programs and other programs. This reform also results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices, thereby helping reduce the GOP dominance of local offices. It also helps prevent extremists from getting control of school boards.
I'm curious about the independent Senate candidate in MT, the one that spooked Steve Daines into dropping his re-election bid minutes before filing closed.
Brian Bengs, who formerly ran against John Thune in the 2022 Senate race as a Democrat, in my view is the superior candidate even as an Independent. He’s a veteran and attorney. Pretty sharp in a recent interview and has pretty much the same agenda as most Democrats running.
Julian Beaudion is the Democratic Candidate but hasn’t exactly impressed me with his justification for running for the Senate. Bengs on the other hand is ready to roll and has fire in his belly. He didn’t do great back in 2022 but that mainly had to do with being a Democrat running for federal office in SD, not so much the campaign Bengs was running.
Bengs has mentioned in an interview with Chris Cillizza that he was a registered Independent before 2022.
I've mentioned it before, but Bengs preformed notably poorly, even compared to the 2020 Senate or Presidential elections. Can't compare him against the House race as no Democrat ran, but I strongly doubt he's a good candidate.
Keep in mind Senator John Thune is an entrenched Senator who is respected by senior establishment Democrats and has been in office since 2005.
Compared to Mitch McConnell, Thune is less divisive and unpopular last I checked. Running against Thune when Biden was still POTUS would have been a tough haul for any candidate.
2016 - Democratic Candidate Jay Williams got just 28% against Thune. Not far off from Bengs’ performance in 2022.
2020 - Democratic Candidate Dan Ahlers got 34% against Senator Mike Rounds.
2022 - Democratic Candidate Jamie Smith only got 35% of the votes against Kristi Noem when she was Governor.
Mike Rounds doesn’t have the stature Thune does so it remains to be seen how Bengs performs. With Beaudion as the Democratic Candidate though, that will complicate things.
With Bengs, I am mainly evaluating him in a qualitative sense.
CA Gov: Although Trump had endorsed Steve Hilton, the state Republican party, at its convention this past weekend, did not. Indeed, Chad Bianco received more votes, leading Hilton 49%-44%. 60% was needed for an endorsement.
I wasn't referring to Swalwell's impact, but to the two Republicans'. The theory was that Trump's endorsement of Hilton would cause him to rise at Bianco's expense, but at least in this very specific measurement, it doesn't seem to have.
Not sure if this counts, but on the topic of Cassidy placing third in the primary for the first time since 1944, attorney Mike Lee (the eventual winner) and businessman Tim Bridgewater *both* performed better than Sen. Bob Bennett at the 2010 Republican convention, denying Bennett a spot on the ballot.
He's a lawyer. He never should have been HHS Secretary. If he wanted to be governor I can't understand why he would go for a cabinet job that wouldn't serve that goal vs just staying at AG where he'd get significantly more facetime with CA voters. But he's still my choice and my former Rep. But if his numbers don't move, I'm voting for Porter.
I saw that. I didn't think it was combative at all. Stewart asked tough questions, as he should, and Mahan answered them well. He looked good to me. I thought a lot of Stewart's questions came from the cynical, comedic, govt-sucks-cant-yoy-do-better POV, which frankly is pretty true right now.
I think Mahan made himself look like a dweeb. It matters little to the actual race, but Stewart has always had that "cynical, comedic" vibe, and Mahan didn't get the memo.
Yes. Stewart played his normal self. Sometimes the only answer to pained cynical criticism of a bad system is to shrug agreement. I thought Mahan looked pretty good, and he shot to the top of my list because Swalwell has always seemed slimy to me and the Fang business was a big red flag. But I'm not from Cali and I don't spend as much time digging into various races every day as you do. Though tbh, Porter as a Senator, recreating Porter as a Cong, sounds pretty formidable, and Steyer has a track record of supporting important causes, so I'm ok w them too. However, Cali has real budget problems and Mahan seems to have a plan there, like Jerry Brown.
If you want someone who knows and can deal with the budget then vote for Betty Yee. She has about as much chance of being Governor as Mahan has. (Very little in both cases, actually...)
I think his supporters get off on watching him deny reality. It allows them to live in his fantasy world too. That’s what they mean when they say he’s a “fighter”
Peru: First round results show right candidate Keiko Fujimori in 1st with 17% followed by far-right Rafael Lopez Aliaga with 15% so not a great result for Peru. I'm sure whoever wins will be followed by an instant 9% approval rating and eventual impeachment for crimes.
Fujimori may end up being the more moderate candidate in the runoff, Christ. A sane centrist-type is in 3rd and will hopefully make the runoff, although the international vote leans extremely far-right and is barely in, and it's really hard to tell if the remaining vote favors the current 2nd or 3rd place candidates.
Wow. Sand is in a stronger position now than Fred Hubbell was polling wise against an incumbent in 2018, and this cycle may be a hitch bluer than that.
Posted upthread, but the result is so good we should post it twice.
I was optimistic about Sand winning before, but if he really is already at 50% in polling and winning by this much, he has a lot of potential to drag our Senate nominee across. I think Brenna Bird might be toast in the AG race if that happens considering how bad her internals numbers were a few months ago. Let’s hope DAGA invests in Nate Willems. A Governor Sand needs a Dem AG to be spared of the pain in the ass that Bird would be.
Fair points. I expect that as we get closer to the end of Q2 and throughout Q3 polling will tighten in the IA-SEN race. Obviously it will be more probable whoever becomes the Democratic Senate nominee.
@CookPolitical
Senate ratings changes:
#NCSen: Toss Up -> Lean D
#GASen: Toss Up -> Lean D
#OHSen: Lean R -> Toss Up
#NESen: Solid R -> Likely R
Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a 1 to 3 seat Democratic pickup - just short of 4 they need
Still early enough to expand that pickup to 4 or more.
I shouldn’t get greedy, but I’m betting we’ll get all 6, and maybe more
I agree...expecting 6...NC, ME, FL, TX, AK and either OH or IA (maybe both)
I think AK will be considered a toss-up by summertime. Maybe IA and TX too.
I'm surprised Alaska's rating didn't change yet. Would be nice to get the 4 or more pickup without OH and FL (since those seats will be up again in 2028).
Me, too.
GA & NC are for sure lean D. NH & MI are not completely safe holds for Ds, though.
I know people will continue to have Platner reservations, but I think ME is lean D as well.
OH & AK are tossups, and IA probably is too. Though we will run stronger in the Gov race.
And I think Talarico has a real shot in TX.
Anything beyond the top 6 is gonna be real tough. Though if Trump continues to spiral (and I think he will), then NE, FL and beyond may come into play (SC?).
Discussion of this topic is forbidden here...
The fact that NH Republicans implemented their version of the SAVE Act and eliminated college student ID cards for voting is alarming.
Kelly Ayotte is just bitter that the student vote cost her her Senate seat in 2016.
But this will have only a minor impact on turnout, since most college students have driver's licenses that they use as a photo ID. And I highly doubt they would try to prohibit out-of-state driver's licenses from being used, since that would affect a lot more people than just college students.
I wouldn't call NH-Sen safe for us, but I'd be absolutely and utterly shocked if we didn't win it.
NH has one of the most elastic electorates in the country. The voters here shift even more strongly with national trends. We're all expecting a blue wave this year; if so, that should be bigger in NH than in most states.
If Sununu has decided to make his comeback bid in 2022 against Hassan then maybe things would have gone differently. Hard to see it happening in 2028 though.
I think some prognosticators will move Texas to tossup if Paxton wins the runoff. I think it would be, perhaps even a slight Talarico advantage.
I would so love to have Lindsey Graham get booted out but I'm not going to get my hopes up. I will never understand hoe he got reelected 6 years ago!
Ratings people are reluctant to shift a race away while there is an incumbent. If Alaska was an open seat but all data was otherwise identical (fundraising, polling) I suspect it would be at tossup already.
Ohio has Brown as a known quantity which makes them more comfortable shifting towards us for similar reasons.
I think the other 3 reach seats aren't going to be shifted to tossup until summer, maybe not even fall.
Just when we got rid of Manchin and Sinema, now expect Fetterman to block every major priority if we get the majority. Pray that the floor falls enough for Republicans that we get to 52 as a safeguard; ME, NC, AK, OH, TX would be likeliest. What a crazy freshman class that would be
It won't be nearly as bad when Trump is still Pres becausexwe cannot pass anything anyway. He'll just veto. '26 to '28 is damage control.
Jan '29 is the soonest we can actually start to fix things. Unless Trump/Vance both die simultaneously after Dems retake the House, which seems unlikely.
I wouldn't put it past Fetterman to vote for a Trump SCOTUS nominee if it came down to it.
Hopefully Schumer will just pull a McConnell, and not even allow a floor vote. Garland would have been confirmed if there were hearings and a vote.
100% agree. Here's where the parties differ.. if Schumer were to do that, my guess is he would eventually cave and allow a floor vote after the GOP propaganda machine whips up a frenzy in OH, AK, TX, NC (assuming we win those seats) saying HOW DARE YOU DENY US A VOTE!!?!?! Hyporcisy be damned.
McConnell amazingly was able to keep even Murkowski and Collins in line on that. Literally the biggest failure of the Obama presidency was not going nuclear over the Scalia vote (I assume becasue everyone thought Hillary would win). A SCOTUS pick, especially one that changes partisan makeup, is worth shutting the government down for and not passing a bill until the vote is held.
Garland would have been a much better Supreme Court Judge than what he ended up being. He was too deliberate and cautious to be the Attorney General in the moment he was thrust into. His deliberation on the other hand, probably would have been very valuable on the Court. So sad! Another Republican blow against America as a nation. There could not be a more Anti-American Party in recent years than the Republican Party! I hope Trump is their death Nell!
I wouldn't put it past him to switch parties if Dems get 51 seats.
I would expect it/
Oh he definitely will.
He isn't alone there. A few Senate "moderates" do that.
As much as I dislike Fetterman, I do not believe he’s going to block a lot of the Democratic Party’s agenda except if it has to do with specific things Trump and his administration is pushing for.
Also, Fetterman was very critical of Noem’s handling of ICE and called her incompetent as DHS Secretary.
Cook Political Report should have moved the GA-SEN to Lean Democrat over a month ago.
Should’ve been moved once Brian Kemp declined to run
Yes, that’s specifically what I am referring to. Ossoff has been consistently leading in the polls for months now and not even by a narrow margin.
I'm in NC so I am most familiar with that race. I am a bit surprised that it was in Toss Up territory and is only now rated Lean D. Especially after the enthusiasm gap in the primaries for the Senate race. Roy Cooper pretty much had a lock on the Senate nomination yet Democratic ballots outpaced GOP ones by ~200K in the March 3rd primary.
But I don't think we can take anything for granted!
Our local Invisible chapter is gearing up for a massive postcard campaign with Postcards to Swing States to get out the vote (GOTV) here in NC. PTSS will undoubtedly include many more statewide campaigns as well as additional campaigns in swing congressional districts.
Although details are not yet available, I feel pretty confident that in addition to NC the other states (GA, IA, ME, and MI) that participated in News Boosting postcard campaigns will be included. I'd also expect to see statewide campaigns for AK, AZ, FL, OH, PA and TX since there are potential senate and/or Governor race pick ups or retentions - plus several other states I'm probably forgetting. Sign ups to receive postcards start on May 1st. If you aren't already on their mailing list, you can sign up here: https://secure.everyaction.com/RW-1oZB460GUwERdJLkCwA2
I also suspect that the recently launched "Women for Roy" coalition will have a postcard writing initiative just like the "Women for Stein" coalition did in 2024 although no details are yet available.
In NC too, and this hasn’t been a tossup since Cooper got in the race back in July. It’s extreme over caution.
I agree!
Where are you in NC?
Good morning, my fellow North Americans. In anticipation of the byelections tonight that may give the Liberal Party a majority, please rise for the Canadian national anthem:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPS9yam6M0s
(wipes a single tear)
Polls close at 8:30 ET in all three ridings. For results, Elections Canada will post a tracker on their site here https://elections.ca/home.aspx if you want to see numbers refresh every 90 seconds. I'm sure there will be lots of livestreaming and other coverage, as I have mentioned before, one I like in particular is The Numbers with Eric Grenier and Philippe Fournier, who have a stream scheduled tonight at https://www.youtube.com/live/6eRkn-BQlWI?si=Cur5oHdJEyvBMmC6
Yes, as you can tell by their names, it will be a bilingual stream so those of you brushing up on your conversational French in preparation of moving here will have a chance to practice.
I thought the youtube link would take us to "Canada's Really Big" by The Arrogant Worms.
Or a Gordon Lightfoot song
Follow-up for those who might be interested. The Liberal candidate in University-Rosedale is Dr. Danielle Martin, who publicly supported Bernie Sanders Medicare for All bill in 2017 and testified at a Senate hearing on healthcare in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danielle_Martin
I've seen enough.
The Liberals have won University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, and therefore we have a majority government.
Terrebonne is leaning towards the Bloc Quebecois for now, and I would love to see the Liberals hold on, but this was always a reach seat, kind of like the seats in Oklahoma or South Carolina that Democrats have won in wave elections but could not keep.
It's been a good April so far in terms of elections - Chris Taylor was elected to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and Viktor Orban was ousted in Hungary. The only thing we still need is for Virginia to ratify the new Democratic gerrymander, and then we'll have three from three for big elections in April.
And I was looking more carefully at the results from Hungary. 20 constituencies were won by TISZA with less than 50% of the vote (not counting the 13 that Fidesz won). Considering the gerrymandering of rural Hungary (which still contains 2/3 of the Hungarian population), and the county-level results, I estimate that TISZA would've had to win the popular vote by at least 2% in order to win a majority of seats. The electoral system still slightly favored Fidesz, it's just that TISZA won by such a large margin that it ultimately didn't matter.
Don't forget Thursday's NJ 11 special election.
I'm not expecting a great deal of drama in that particular election, at least not for the general.
It's possible Mejia could underperform slightly, given the highest she performed in polling was 53%, and centrists and conservatives aren't big fans of her progressivism.
I doubt it. Dem turnout so far is exceeding even 2025 pretty substantially. Per umichvoter on X.
I believe Tisza won 93 of the 106 FPTP directly elected posts, though obviously not with a majority in some of them.
And 45 of the 93 party seats. The party seats is where the fix was in. Still more than Fidesz, and MHM win 7, I think. But less than half.
HUNGARY – fun facts
– Voter turnout in Hungary’s election was 79.55%.
– Compared to the 2022 election, Fidesz/KDNP gained ground in four (4) municipalities, relative to the main opposition list.
– However, Tisza gained ground relative to Fidesz in 3,151 municipalities!
Given that Tisza is a brand new party, I assume the "gained" is relative to the opposition last election?
Correct.
Still waiting to see Talarico and Peltola's hauls from Q1!
Peltola raised $8.9 million.
Did that just get announced or did I miss it?
I saw it today. Link to Politico is below.
Being that the primary is over, I’d say Q2 would be even more important than in Q1 now that Talarico is the Senate nominee.
But I’m sure Talarico did quite well in Q1.
Well we are not due those numbers for a couple of months, so I'm trying to be a bit more realistic =P
Of course. I’m sure Talarico will have blown away fundraising in Q1.
We really can’t get enough of him and his candidacy. ;)
Iowa: GBAO has Sand up 8 in the governor’s race and Hinson up only 3/4 in the Senate race. I think most of us expected Sand to do better than the Senate nominee, but not by double digits. I wonder if our Senate nominee gets a name rec/rally around the flag bump after the primary. Either way, ugly poll for Republicans all around in a R+11 electorate.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019d-8400-d182-a9fd-b63c76ae0000
Here are the exact numbers. Although it’s overall a good poll, still a wee bit concerning that Dems aren’t leading in the generic ballot. That means one house pickup and maaaaaybe 2. And the senate seat is an uphill climb to 50%.
Iowa Governor 2026
🟦Rob Sand 50%
🟥Randy Feenstra 42%
——
US Senate Iowa 2026
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
🟦Josh Turek 43%
—
US Senate Iowa 2026
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
🟦Zach Wahls 44%
——
Generic cong ballot 2026 (Iowa)
🟥Republican 46%
🟦Democratic 44%
IA-04 is so lopsidedly Republican that it is pretty easy to imagine an R+2 generic ballot in the state resulting in Dems winning 3/4 seats. Something like IA-01 being D+1, IA-02 being D+5, IA-03 being D+5, and IA-04 being R+20 gets you there.
We have history of Republicans winning statewide while only carrying IA-04. Reynolds in 2018 and Bird in 2022, for example.
Ds won the statewide House vote in 2018 solely because Steve King performed so horribly there (won by like 3 points) for a Republican. Had a normal Republican been running there and won by the normal 20 point R margin, Rs would have won the House popular vote that year in Iowa despite winning just 1/4 seats.
That plus Loebsack being a strong overperformer.
Dems -2 on the generic ballot would definitely give Dems 2 seats, and probably 3 with IA-4 being one of the more conservative districts in the Midwest. And with an R+11 electorate, I think this poll might be a bit rosy for Republicans if anything. The electorate wasn't nearly that Republican in 2018, the last midterm with Trump in office. Things are decidedly worse nationally for him than 2018, and I imagine a much smaller partisan edge than 11 this year.
The more people that meet Josh Turek, the better he will do. The question is whether he has enough time to introduce himself.
If he wins the primary, he’ll easily raise enough money to get his message out there. I don’t think any Democratic Senate nominees are going to be lacking for funds this year, even if Elon might outspend them.
It seems like he is getting more attention and press. And also he's on the airwaves in Iowa. Idk of Wahls is though
I hate to say this, but as a person that is wheelchair bound and has cerebral palsy myself, Republicans and moderates listen to Josh because of the wheelchair. People always quiet down and listen to me when I am speaking as well.
Zach Wahls is a known entity amongst the activists that are voting in the primary. I would argue that he is the best known Democrat in the state ever since that speech. I think he is more well known than our former Attorney General and State Treasurer. He was even more well known than Rob Sand before Rob Sand started running for Governor.
Full disclosure: I am a Turek tsupporter.
It's an uphill climb for Turek for sure but I think once the primary is like a month away, people will really start paying attention to Turek's record and message. I can see him eeke out a win against Wahls if he plays his cards right
It is difficult because I believe people a very famous name in Iowa politics asked Josh Tutek to get into this race, and said famous name (I won't confirm. nor deny) could get Turek a win in the primary, but he wants to be fair to Zach Wahls.
Wahls is painting Turek as an insider when Zach has been raising money from political activists and insiders (good people, but still insiders) for 15 years, Wahls lived in Washington DC and has a huge rolodex, but he acts like he never met a wealthy out of state donor.
I bet a fair bit of the difference is down to each race having ongoing primaries. The Republican number will probably come up for governor once there's a nominee and likewise for the Democrats in the Senate.
Agreed. Although I easily believe Sand is at 50 in the governor's race already, and probably the frontrunner there despite the state's red lean. If he was able to hold on in 2022 despite the red in-state wave, he obviously has a lot of appeal that most Democrats in the state lack.
Voters are also more willing to vote for candidates from the other party at the local level than they are at the federal level. That gives Sand another advantage.
Does anyone have any predictions/estimates for the Q1 fundraising in the target states (AK, TX, NE, OH, FL, NC, IA, ME)
AK Sen: Mary Peltola (D) raised $8.9 million in 1Q. Truly an amazing number.
Sullivan (R) raised $2.1 and has $7.5 million COH. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/13/senate-midterms-peltola-fundraising-sullivan-alaska-00868627
That is excellent, raised more than Sullivan has on hand in 1 quarter is just brilliant!
So we know the following:
-Sullivan has gone down in the polls and was below 40% in one.
-He is behind in fundraising vs Peltola.
This isn’t looking good for Sullivan.
A Peltola press release states that “95.1% of the amount came from contributions $100 or less” and that as of 3/31, she has $5.6 million COH. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/04/13/election-2026-peltola-campaign-more-than-quadruples-sullivans-first-quarter-earnings/
Sounds like she is going to have more donors than voters!
I would like to see some articles about what's happening in the districts and states that are not now in the running for election. Alabama's governor race, governor races in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Senate race in South Dakota with the independent candidate, etc. I think Ds will win many more offices than currently predicted. Democrats in the blue states and in those states where citizens can put issues on the ballot are missing the boat if they don't push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform boosts voter turnout and saves millions of tax dollars which are needed to make up for Trump's cuts to food programs and other programs. This reform also results in more women and more minorities being elected to local offices, thereby helping reduce the GOP dominance of local offices. It also helps prevent extremists from getting control of school boards.
I'm curious about the independent Senate candidate in MT, the one that spooked Steve Daines into dropping his re-election bid minutes before filing closed.
I highly doubt Bodnar spooked Daines. I think he just wanted out.
I would love to see Bodnar win, but I think he'll split the Democratic vote and allow Daines' successor to win on a plurality.
Regarding SD-SEN:
Brian Bengs, who formerly ran against John Thune in the 2022 Senate race as a Democrat, in my view is the superior candidate even as an Independent. He’s a veteran and attorney. Pretty sharp in a recent interview and has pretty much the same agenda as most Democrats running.
Julian Beaudion is the Democratic Candidate but hasn’t exactly impressed me with his justification for running for the Senate. Bengs on the other hand is ready to roll and has fire in his belly. He didn’t do great back in 2022 but that mainly had to do with being a Democrat running for federal office in SD, not so much the campaign Bengs was running.
Bengs has mentioned in an interview with Chris Cillizza that he was a registered Independent before 2022.
https://bengsforsouthdakota.com/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tvWLZ21SZzc&pp=ygULQnJpYW4gYmVuZ3M%3D
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a69QEwG8z24&pp=ygULQnJpYW4gYmVuZ3M%3D
I've mentioned it before, but Bengs preformed notably poorly, even compared to the 2020 Senate or Presidential elections. Can't compare him against the House race as no Democrat ran, but I strongly doubt he's a good candidate.
Keep in mind Senator John Thune is an entrenched Senator who is respected by senior establishment Democrats and has been in office since 2005.
Compared to Mitch McConnell, Thune is less divisive and unpopular last I checked. Running against Thune when Biden was still POTUS would have been a tough haul for any candidate.
2016 - Democratic Candidate Jay Williams got just 28% against Thune. Not far off from Bengs’ performance in 2022.
2020 - Democratic Candidate Dan Ahlers got 34% against Senator Mike Rounds.
2022 - Democratic Candidate Jamie Smith only got 35% of the votes against Kristi Noem when she was Governor.
Mike Rounds doesn’t have the stature Thune does so it remains to be seen how Bengs performs. With Beaudion as the Democratic Candidate though, that will complicate things.
With Bengs, I am mainly evaluating him in a qualitative sense.
Hard pass on forcing local elections to line up with federal elections.
CA Gov: Although Trump had endorsed Steve Hilton, the state Republican party, at its convention this past weekend, did not. Indeed, Chad Bianco received more votes, leading Hilton 49%-44%. 60% was needed for an endorsement.
That is... odd. Hope it doesn't scramble the top 2 calculus
I just ran Paul Mitchell's simulator with Swalwell deleted. RvR chance is less than 4%. DvD chance is 13%.
I'm really waiting to see polls to see who gains from Swalwell's absence.
I wasn't referring to Swalwell's impact, but to the two Republicans'. The theory was that Trump's endorsement of Hilton would cause him to rise at Bianco's expense, but at least in this very specific measurement, it doesn't seem to have.
Not sure if this counts, but on the topic of Cassidy placing third in the primary for the first time since 1944, attorney Mike Lee (the eventual winner) and businessman Tim Bridgewater *both* performed better than Sen. Bob Bennett at the 2010 Republican convention, denying Bennett a spot on the ballot.
Steyer now the front runner for Dems ????? Asking from Long Island
Probably him and Porter
Looks that way. Would like to see Becerra get a boost from all this. He's the candidate I'd vote for if I lived in California.
What he lacks in charisma and vision he certainly has in experience, I'll give him that.
Weren't there stories about HHS being a mess under him?
He's a lawyer. He never should have been HHS Secretary. If he wanted to be governor I can't understand why he would go for a cabinet job that wouldn't serve that goal vs just staying at AG where he'd get significantly more facetime with CA voters. But he's still my choice and my former Rep. But if his numbers don't move, I'm voting for Porter.
I am seeing some movement to try to make Matt Mahan happen. Not sure if it'll be successful, but hey, weird things sometimes occur.
Jon Stewart would like a word...their interview was pretty combative
I saw that. I didn't think it was combative at all. Stewart asked tough questions, as he should, and Mahan answered them well. He looked good to me. I thought a lot of Stewart's questions came from the cynical, comedic, govt-sucks-cant-yoy-do-better POV, which frankly is pretty true right now.
I think Mahan made himself look like a dweeb. It matters little to the actual race, but Stewart has always had that "cynical, comedic" vibe, and Mahan didn't get the memo.
Yes. Stewart played his normal self. Sometimes the only answer to pained cynical criticism of a bad system is to shrug agreement. I thought Mahan looked pretty good, and he shot to the top of my list because Swalwell has always seemed slimy to me and the Fang business was a big red flag. But I'm not from Cali and I don't spend as much time digging into various races every day as you do. Though tbh, Porter as a Senator, recreating Porter as a Cong, sounds pretty formidable, and Steyer has a track record of supporting important causes, so I'm ok w them too. However, Cali has real budget problems and Mahan seems to have a plan there, like Jerry Brown.
Fair enough. I'm also an avid Daily Show watcher, so I'm a little biased to Stewart over any interviewee.
if mahan somehow was guranteed to be jerry brown 2010 -2018 redux, i'd fully be supportive if i lived there, but mahan seems more the pick of big tech
If you want someone who knows and can deal with the budget then vote for Betty Yee. She has about as much chance of being Governor as Mahan has. (Very little in both cases, actually...)
Well if you don't want an abusive boss or a billionaire, he's the third option.
From what I’ve read, labor doesn’t like him.
As San Jose Mayor, Mahan isn’t exactly a fighter for their cause. He is not anti-union but he’s also pro-union at the same time.
Bill Cassidy has to be hoping that Trump will dispatch J.D. Vance to Louisiana to campaign for Julie Letlow the way he did for Viktor Orban.
https://www.theverge.com/science/910326/iran-strait-hormuz-fertilizer-feedstock-food-crisis
Class 2 is the worst Senate class to make a farm crisis. GJ Trump.
Trump can solve any fertilizer shortage all by himself.
He's not psycologically capable of publicly taking a loss.
Unless he can spin a loss into a win.
I think his supporters get off on watching him deny reality. It allows them to live in his fantasy world too. That’s what they mean when they say he’s a “fighter”
It’s really painful to admit, but I think you hit the nail on the head.
This is a superb, spot-on (and extremely sad) comment.
You're right, we shouldn't underestimate Trump's ability to generate fertilizer by spewing BS ;-)
Winning!
I think this could definitely help us in Iowa and put Nebraska and Kansas in play.
3 days out, 50,605 voters have voted in the special election between Analilia Mejia (D) and Joe Hathaway (R)
Early voting (Day 7 of 9): 16,126 voters
Vote-by-mail: 34,479 voters
🔵 Democratic 62.1% / 31,434
🔴 Republican 24.3% / 12,307
⚪️ Unaffiliated 13.6% / 6,864
Peru: First round results show right candidate Keiko Fujimori in 1st with 17% followed by far-right Rafael Lopez Aliaga with 15% so not a great result for Peru. I'm sure whoever wins will be followed by an instant 9% approval rating and eventual impeachment for crimes.
What horrible alternatives.
Jesus Christ
I don't get how Peru can never coalesce around actual sane centrist candidates.
I agree but I would remove the word 'centrist'.
Yeah. A sane left-winger would be great!
Fujimori may end up being the more moderate candidate in the runoff, Christ. A sane centrist-type is in 3rd and will hopefully make the runoff, although the international vote leans extremely far-right and is barely in, and it's really hard to tell if the remaining vote favors the current 2nd or 3rd place candidates.
GABO poll | 3/10-3/16 LV
Iowa Governor 2026
🟦Rob Sand 50%
🟥Randy Feenstra 42%
——
US Senate Iowa 2026
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
🟦Josh Turek 43%
—
US Senate Iowa 2026
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
🟦Zach Wahls 44%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (Iowa)
🟥Republican 46%
🟦Democratic 44%
(Democratic pollster)
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2043668606991347906?s=46
Wow. Sand is in a stronger position now than Fred Hubbell was polling wise against an incumbent in 2018, and this cycle may be a hitch bluer than that.
Posted upthread, but the result is so good we should post it twice.
I was optimistic about Sand winning before, but if he really is already at 50% in polling and winning by this much, he has a lot of potential to drag our Senate nominee across. I think Brenna Bird might be toast in the AG race if that happens considering how bad her internals numbers were a few months ago. Let’s hope DAGA invests in Nate Willems. A Governor Sand needs a Dem AG to be spared of the pain in the ass that Bird would be.
Fair points. I expect that as we get closer to the end of Q2 and throughout Q3 polling will tighten in the IA-SEN race. Obviously it will be more probable whoever becomes the Democratic Senate nominee.