It seems like folks (especially younger folks) don't appreciate the effects of negative partisanship. Right now, voters are voting against Trump and Rs. Its not necessarily an endorsement of our candidates. I agree that 2030 and beyond invite plenty of negative consequences for some of our members.
There is still a ton of value in building a base that includes median voters.
In theory, sure, but in practice, we can predict that the U.S. will alternate wildly between Democrats and fucking destroy-everything fascists repeatedly. The really important election was 2024 (not to mention 2000, which was stolen, or 2016, or 1980 - Reagan wasn't a fascist, but he was certainly a racist and violently anti-gay, and he destroyed the nascent alternative energy programs in the U.S. and helped set us on the road to the fucking extreme April temperatures we're getting now in New York, etc.). Now, the Democrats must win this year and win a trifecta in 2028, and then -they must act fast, efficiently and radically, --assuming-- that they will be punished for being in office in 2030 and making sure to do things that can't be quickly undone-. Is that likely? Well, it fucking better be! And there are good signs of radicalization and a lessening of complacency and torpor among Democratic politicians, in response to the activism of voters. But planning to win again in 2030 is in my opinion a fool's errand. If they do win then after taking rapid, powerful action, it'll be a blessing, and they should work hard for it when the time comes, but they should do everything they can as quickly as possible under the assumption that they are likely to get slammed, no matter -what- they do!
In fairness things are WAY more unhinged this time around sans experienced hands to autopilot the country while Trump rage tweets (which he does way more frequently now after stewing in nothing but his resentments for four years)
Losing the house was realistic even without a wave. 2022 wasn't that far off of being a neutral year but it was enough for us to lose control. Republicans hold the majority by all of 3 seats right now; they could have had an otherwise great 2026 and still lost the speakership.
Hispanic/Latino voters are a pretty diverse group. I'd expect a huge Dem overperformance in CA, AZ, NV, NM, TX, and IL with Mexican-Americans. South Americans a little less so, and Caribbean voters even less.
That said, I am willing to bet big money that all of us Latino voters (who often vote on economic issues) are primed for a vote against Republicans. This will not be a vote for Democrats, it will be pure negative partisanship. Hopefully Dems will pull an Obama and work to meaningfully keep Latino voters in the fold
Tyson and these FL Rs are in denial. If 8-10% of Republican FL voters are voting for Democrats in Nov and a small sliver of MAGAs stay home, the environment is ripe for Democrats to flip.
Let’s not forget that Trump’s endorsements are no longer gold. Plus Byron Donalds’ skin color will likely put off some of the hardcore racist R voters too.
There aren't *too* many Hispanic-majority areas in Georgia other than some Atlanta suburbs (which also have substantial Black and Asian populations), right?
My favorite parts: Talarico at a 9x multiplier over Cornyn, and 6x Cornyn+Paxton combined. McMorrow a full $1m/50% ahead of Stevens. Peltola absolutely dominating in Alaska. Ossoff is a fundraising juggernaut.
Parts I dislike: Flanagan at nearly half of Craig's total. Turek and Wahls combined at less than Hinson. Moulton outraising Markey, although neither of them did all that great.
I think you might be a bit off with Cornyn and Paxton? I read elsewhere that Cornyn raised $1.9M in his official campaign account (and more in a joint fundraising committee) while Paxton raised $2.2M.
I think it's actually a more useful barometer for testing how a generic Democrat running for local statewide office would do. I kind of assume Stein will win reelection, so this is more establishing what his baseline would be.
Unqualified man takes the lead over qualified woman, whom backers of unqualified man have labeled “establishment.” Remind anyone else of some recent presidential elections, 2016 and 2024 for instance?
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
Not like the gap between Maine and Massachusetts is all that big physically. NH has the shortest non-zero coastline in the US, and that's all that separates the two states.
I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about being anti-choice.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
McAdams biggest boosters are NewDems and WelcomePAC, some of the primary drivers of the "pivot to the center" discourse in the party. Hardly suggest a candidate likely to tailor himself to a safely blue seat.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
Wow! I didn't read anything disrespectful in the remark. It would be more helpful for me, to hear what his more recent votes and remarks are. Some of us enjoy gathering information on candidates around the country, not just horse race information, although polling and horse race information helps me figure out what the locals are thinking in districts too. There should be room for both in a good comment section.
I do agree with your reaction to how the opposition will exploit this, however.
Precisely. I don't agree with someone being cancelled or having their livelihood ruined based on a stupid youthful action/posting/prank/whatever. That's a different matter from choosing someone to represent you with that history.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
I'm still hoping for Blouin as the more-left choice but think McAdams will adapt to the district if elected. The federal reps Utah has had this century (Matheson, McAdams) were both good at adapting their voting record to their ever-changing constituencies, and D-leaning voters tended to allow it. I also think if McAdams wins and doesn't act like he's representing a strongly Dem. district, there'll be a strong push to hold him accountable.
Along with UT-01 housing a large chunk of the non-Mormon Utah vote, I'd also add that many practicing Mormons in the blue areas of the SLC metro are culturally non-Mormon, in that they likely agree with the sentiment if not the tone of Blouin's old comments. For you sports-ball types, think of it as UoU fans vs. BYU fans.
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
I agree - I think he'd be a slight favorite but there's no reason for us to be anything but an overwhelming favorite in a light-blue state in this political environment.
McMorrow made her political splash through taking the fight to republicans. For me she is the best through temperament. She is the one most clearly fit for the zeitgeist of this moment in politics.
I like Stevens but I think it's probably time for her to drop out so that we don't wind up with Abdul-Sayed as our nominee and fumble away this race that should be in the bag for us in this environment.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
He had the competition he did because the establishment considered the failed governor competent enough not to try to undermine him in any way, and the same goes for the unpopular mayor. Monied interests, who pride themselves on their intelligence and competence, spent more money trying to get Cuomo elected mayor of NYC than the RNC/RGA spent trying to get Winsome-Sears elected governor of Virginia.
I am contributing to El Sayed as a Michigander, but would throw my support to McMorrow if she wins the Primary.. I would vote for Haley over Rogers any day! I went to the polling data on the first poll, here. I noticed it had a plus or minus of 4 points, which would account for the difference in the two polls everyone on the Democratic side is within 4 points of each other.
As this war drags on, and the Staits remain blocked, the Affordable Crisis is only going to become more of a plus factor, the more progressive on that issue becomes. I'm already there on this economic based election.If Trump and Republicans pass this proposed budget for next year, it will throw Michiganders even further to the left of center. Food prices alone haven't even begun their spike compared to what's coming up. Add to that, and a lot of Michigan farmers are being driven off their farms due to production costs skyrocketing. Michigan is primed to be very much a member of the Blue Tsunami! Centrist positions like Haley's might not fly so high by August Primary!
I personally want to go as Progressive as possible.
By the way, Farming is the second largest sector in Michigan after Auto manufacturing. It is even larger than the Tourist industry, which Trump is also devastating.
Yes. By far. Lots of attacks on Muslims adter 9/11. Remember the Michigan Militia (OKC bombing) and KKK grand dragon used to be from here. I'm not in Michigan anymore, but grew up there.
As you allude to in your post, I think the relatively blueness of NYC vs. Michigan over-rode the Islamophobia. That said, the Democratic nominee just barely cracked 50% in the NYC mayoral election in a deep blue environment...that says something...
I don't the Islamophobia is Abdul's biggest problem. Its his rhetoric and past statements. I don't think that will play that well in vote rich areas like Macomb and Oakland counties
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
What a piece of absolute shit Fairfax turned out to be, he couldn’t just off himself but had to take his wife with him and in the same house as their kids…utterly disgusting and cowardly.
I'm trying to remember what the situation was with the election with him before. Was he just the loser in the prior gubernatorial general election? Or was there a (different, obviously) story at the time?
Multiple sexual assault allegations during his tenure as LG dating to his time in college years before. These coincided with Northam's blackface scandal, so some folks thought the reports might have come forward to reduce the likelihood of Fairfax becoming governor then.
Wow, I was expecting 20 mins judging by how it was looking. Dems had a small lead in Wayne Township voting.
I would have gone ahead and called the race at 0% honestly
Lol. AP calls it at 16% 7 minutes in
When you talk about beyond 2028, that's when things get really doubtful.
It seems like folks (especially younger folks) don't appreciate the effects of negative partisanship. Right now, voters are voting against Trump and Rs. Its not necessarily an endorsement of our candidates. I agree that 2030 and beyond invite plenty of negative consequences for some of our members.
There is still a ton of value in building a base that includes median voters.
In theory, sure, but in practice, we can predict that the U.S. will alternate wildly between Democrats and fucking destroy-everything fascists repeatedly. The really important election was 2024 (not to mention 2000, which was stolen, or 2016, or 1980 - Reagan wasn't a fascist, but he was certainly a racist and violently anti-gay, and he destroyed the nascent alternative energy programs in the U.S. and helped set us on the road to the fucking extreme April temperatures we're getting now in New York, etc.). Now, the Democrats must win this year and win a trifecta in 2028, and then -they must act fast, efficiently and radically, --assuming-- that they will be punished for being in office in 2030 and making sure to do things that can't be quickly undone-. Is that likely? Well, it fucking better be! And there are good signs of radicalization and a lessening of complacency and torpor among Democratic politicians, in response to the activism of voters. But planning to win again in 2030 is in my opinion a fool's errand. If they do win then after taking rapid, powerful action, it'll be a blessing, and they should work hard for it when the time comes, but they should do everything they can as quickly as possible under the assumption that they are likely to get slammed, no matter -what- they do!
“Everything is made more difficult by the nonsense coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue”
Let me get this straight - The same shit happened in Trump’s first term and now you’re literally having to learn the hard way again?
You supported Trump in the first place you moron.
In fairness things are WAY more unhinged this time around sans experienced hands to autopilot the country while Trump rage tweets (which he does way more frequently now after stewing in nothing but his resentments for four years)
Milder chaos or more unhinged chaos, at this point it all boils down to this:
Win elections
Win elections
And
Win more elections
The GOP in GA and elsewhere can go to therapy as far as I’m concerned while Democrats wipe out as many GOP held seats as possible.
Losing the house was realistic even without a wave. 2022 wasn't that far off of being a neutral year but it was enough for us to lose control. Republicans hold the majority by all of 3 seats right now; they could have had an otherwise great 2026 and still lost the speakership.
Though admitting that is a different matter.
Hispanic/Latino voters are a pretty diverse group. I'd expect a huge Dem overperformance in CA, AZ, NV, NM, TX, and IL with Mexican-Americans. South Americans a little less so, and Caribbean voters even less.
That said, I am willing to bet big money that all of us Latino voters (who often vote on economic issues) are primed for a vote against Republicans. This will not be a vote for Democrats, it will be pure negative partisanship. Hopefully Dems will pull an Obama and work to meaningfully keep Latino voters in the fold
Tyson and these FL Rs are in denial. If 8-10% of Republican FL voters are voting for Democrats in Nov and a small sliver of MAGAs stay home, the environment is ripe for Democrats to flip.
Let’s not forget that Trump’s endorsements are no longer gold. Plus Byron Donalds’ skin color will likely put off some of the hardcore racist R voters too.
And Trump's poor numbers in Alaska.
There aren't *too* many Hispanic-majority areas in Georgia other than some Atlanta suburbs (which also have substantial Black and Asian populations), right?
Yet they are trying to carve up atlanta.
Georgia Republicans move to redraw political map of metro Atlanta
https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/03/georgia-republicans-move-to-redraw-political-map-of-metro-atlanta/
Georgia Republicans Are Working to Rig Elections So They Never Lose Again
https://newrepublic.com/article/161258/georgia-elections-voter-suppression-graham
Georgia Republicans move for huge election changes to stop losing in Atlanta
https://www.rawstory.com/georgia-republicans-2676632506/
This ''law'' would only apply to atlanta and no where else in the state.
I can see it being taken to court.
“Screaming from the wilderness”
Where exactly has this clown of a GA Republican lawmaker said this?
Grand Canyon?
Yosemite National Park?
No offense dude but your party sucks and it has ZERO to do with Hispanic voter outreach.
There is something called the “Little Grand Canyon” in southwest Georgia actually
Interesting. Perhaps I shall have to check it out if I am ever in GA.
My favorite parts: Talarico at a 9x multiplier over Cornyn, and 6x Cornyn+Paxton combined. McMorrow a full $1m/50% ahead of Stevens. Peltola absolutely dominating in Alaska. Ossoff is a fundraising juggernaut.
Parts I dislike: Flanagan at nearly half of Craig's total. Turek and Wahls combined at less than Hinson. Moulton outraising Markey, although neither of them did all that great.
I think you might be a bit off with Cornyn and Paxton? I read elsewhere that Cornyn raised $1.9M in his official campaign account (and more in a joint fundraising committee) while Paxton raised $2.2M.
I think he will have long coattails and get Justice Earls over the line (aka a big enough lead over Stevens to avoid a recount).
HPU is going by the voter makeup of the 2024 presidential election in NC, and this year will be several points bluer than that.
Agree...no way Cooper wins by 8 and doesn't bring Earls with him...
Idk why they wouldn't test Stein instead of Generic Democrat. There's not really any doubt he'll run again.
I think it's actually a more useful barometer for testing how a generic Democrat running for local statewide office would do. I kind of assume Stein will win reelection, so this is more establishing what his baseline would be.
I'm in MA, and several of my friends over the state line don't agree with you. Perhaps you could say where you are and something about your sources?
Unqualified man takes the lead over qualified woman, whom backers of unqualified man have labeled “establishment.” Remind anyone else of some recent presidential elections, 2016 and 2024 for instance?
Your profile says next to nothing about where you live, and your comments confirm my first impressions.
But I have, often. It just that some names stand out and others don't.
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
Massachusetts doesn't border Maine? There's no "over the state line"
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
Missouri, not Alabama. Otherwise spot on.
Not like the gap between Maine and Massachusetts is all that big physically. NH has the shortest non-zero coastline in the US, and that's all that separates the two states.
Oops, you're right. But it doesn't take long to get through that bit of NH, as long as you don't go to the beach.
This is not an appropriate comment. Everyone here is entitled to opine about races across the country, regardless of where they live.
If you disagree with something someone says, explain why you object to the *comment*, not the *commenter*.
Across what Stateline? Vermont? New Hampshire? Rhode Island? Because Massachusetts doesn't have a border with Maine?
I believe that Stateline is in Nevada. I’ll see myself out now.
Well there goes Blouin, assuming Mormons are as politically powerful in Utah as they once were.
Not looking forward to Ben McAdams, he’s anti-abortion.
I hope so. I’m not confident.
I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about being anti-choice.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
McAdams biggest boosters are NewDems and WelcomePAC, some of the primary drivers of the "pivot to the center" discourse in the party. Hardly suggest a candidate likely to tailor himself to a safely blue seat.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
Perhaps you could look up his record and post your findings here? That would make a useful contribution to the discussion.
Wow! I didn't read anything disrespectful in the remark. It would be more helpful for me, to hear what his more recent votes and remarks are. Some of us enjoy gathering information on candidates around the country, not just horse race information, although polling and horse race information helps me figure out what the locals are thinking in districts too. There should be room for both in a good comment section.
I do agree with your reaction to how the opposition will exploit this, however.
Precisely. I don't agree with someone being cancelled or having their livelihood ruined based on a stupid youthful action/posting/prank/whatever. That's a different matter from choosing someone to represent you with that history.
I am of the age that Blouin was when the posts were made, and sometimes I regret what I say here because I feel I lack nuance. Agreed.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
I'm pretty sure the new blue district in Utah is majority non-Mormon, which is why it's a blue district in the first place.
SLC has lots of Mormons but to your point, for these days they are in the minority population.
I'm still hoping for Blouin as the more-left choice but think McAdams will adapt to the district if elected. The federal reps Utah has had this century (Matheson, McAdams) were both good at adapting their voting record to their ever-changing constituencies, and D-leaning voters tended to allow it. I also think if McAdams wins and doesn't act like he's representing a strongly Dem. district, there'll be a strong push to hold him accountable.
Along with UT-01 housing a large chunk of the non-Mormon Utah vote, I'd also add that many practicing Mormons in the blue areas of the SLC metro are culturally non-Mormon, in that they likely agree with the sentiment if not the tone of Blouin's old comments. For you sports-ball types, think of it as UoU fans vs. BYU fans.
Very good analysis, thanks. I get it now.
McAdams would be a great candidate for a swing seat if they’d drawn two. He’s negative value in terms of House votes out for a deep blue SLC seat.
Just a quick correction, Riebe called Blouin inflammatory, not herself😉
Thank you, I've corrected!
Awesome thanks!
Michigan Emerson:
McMorrow 24
El Sayed 24
Stevens 13
In the Republican Primary for Governor, 21% support Perry Johnson, 20% Rep. John James, and 10% Mike Cox. Thirty-nine percent are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-tied-for-lead-in-democratic-senate-primary/
I'd love Stevens to drop out. Either of the others would be just fine.
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
I agree - I think he'd be a slight favorite but there's no reason for us to be anything but an overwhelming favorite in a light-blue state in this political environment.
I keep saying that I think he would win now but not in even a slightly redder environment.
Agreed. El Sayed would probably lose, and Stevens would be a centrist. McMorrow seems the safest option for both electability and policy.
McMorrow made her political splash through taking the fight to republicans. For me she is the best through temperament. She is the one most clearly fit for the zeitgeist of this moment in politics.
I like Stevens but I think it's probably time for her to drop out so that we don't wind up with Abdul-Sayed as our nominee and fumble away this race that should be in the bag for us in this environment.
I like Abdul but I worry he’d lose the general due to Islamophobia. I’m backing Mallory for that reason — were this a bluer state I’d be 110% Abdul.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
Another reason I’m backing Mallory. She seems more independent than Haley, who is a corporate stooge.
McMorrow has some problems when it comes to being a "corporate stooge", but much less so than Stevens.
McMorrow will likely vote with progressives on most if not all issues. I'm not seeing a downside with her at all
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
He had the competition he did because the establishment considered the failed governor competent enough not to try to undermine him in any way, and the same goes for the unpopular mayor. Monied interests, who pride themselves on their intelligence and competence, spent more money trying to get Cuomo elected mayor of NYC than the RNC/RGA spent trying to get Winsome-Sears elected governor of Virginia.
Michigan has more Republicans. I worry Islamophobia would motivate higher GOP turnout.
I am contributing to El Sayed as a Michigander, but would throw my support to McMorrow if she wins the Primary.. I would vote for Haley over Rogers any day! I went to the polling data on the first poll, here. I noticed it had a plus or minus of 4 points, which would account for the difference in the two polls everyone on the Democratic side is within 4 points of each other.
As this war drags on, and the Staits remain blocked, the Affordable Crisis is only going to become more of a plus factor, the more progressive on that issue becomes. I'm already there on this economic based election.If Trump and Republicans pass this proposed budget for next year, it will throw Michiganders even further to the left of center. Food prices alone haven't even begun their spike compared to what's coming up. Add to that, and a lot of Michigan farmers are being driven off their farms due to production costs skyrocketing. Michigan is primed to be very much a member of the Blue Tsunami! Centrist positions like Haley's might not fly so high by August Primary!
I personally want to go as Progressive as possible.
By the way, Farming is the second largest sector in Michigan after Auto manufacturing. It is even larger than the Tourist industry, which Trump is also devastating.
Yes. By far. Lots of attacks on Muslims adter 9/11. Remember the Michigan Militia (OKC bombing) and KKK grand dragon used to be from here. I'm not in Michigan anymore, but grew up there.
As you allude to in your post, I think the relatively blueness of NYC vs. Michigan over-rode the Islamophobia. That said, the Democratic nominee just barely cracked 50% in the NYC mayoral election in a deep blue environment...that says something...
It says that New York is not that liberal. New York previously elected Giuliani, Bloomberg and Adams. But it was leftist enough to elect Mamdani.
I don't the Islamophobia is Abdul's biggest problem. Its his rhetoric and past statements. I don't think that will play that well in vote rich areas like Macomb and Oakland counties
Holy shit: former Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax killed his wife and then himself last night.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/us/justin-fairfax-virginia-investigation
Even worse, their teenage children were home at the time. Just awful.
It is. Ugh.
Good god
That's horrible. What the fuck.
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/former-virginia-lt-gov-justin-fairfax-kills-wife-self-divorce-police-rcna33212
What a piece of absolute shit Fairfax turned out to be, he couldn’t just off himself but had to take his wife with him and in the same house as their kids…utterly disgusting and cowardly.
Right? Ugh.
I'm trying to remember what the situation was with the election with him before. Was he just the loser in the prior gubernatorial general election? Or was there a (different, obviously) story at the time?
Multiple sexual assault allegations during his tenure as LG dating to his time in college years before. These coincided with Northam's blackface scandal, so some folks thought the reports might have come forward to reduce the likelihood of Fairfax becoming governor then.
Quantus poll VA redistricting:
Yes 51
No 47
https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/2044748138712313919?s=20
I think so, yes.
I'm not so sure. And if it did, it wouldn't be 9% as in California.
In your UT-1 item above, you have Riebe calling Riebe "too inflammatory". Should the second Riebe be Nate Blouin?
Thank you, I've fixed!