I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about being anti-choice.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
McAdams biggest boosters are NewDems and WelcomePAC, some of the primary drivers of the "pivot to the center" discourse in the party. Hardly suggest a candidate likely to tailor himself to a safely blue seat.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
Wow! I didn't read anything disrespectful in the remark. It would be more helpful for me, to hear what his more recent votes and remarks are. Some of us enjoy gathering information on candidates around the country, not just horse race information, although polling and horse race information helps me figure out what the locals are thinking in districts too. There should be room for both in a good comment section.
I do agree with your reaction to how the opposition will exploit this, however.
Precisely. I don't agree with someone being cancelled or having their livelihood ruined based on a stupid youthful action/posting/prank/whatever. That's a different matter from choosing someone to represent you with that history.
this is the proper reaction in the 21st century. we're rapidly entering an era where almost every candidate for elected office is going to have off-color remarks in their internet history. we should give them a chance to explain, take their explanation in context with current words and actions, and not cancel everyone that says a single thing wrong. we'll have no one left if we do that.
Blouin is by far the best candidate in this field and I would hate for another obnoxious round of left/lib self-flagellation to screw us out of a good member of Congress.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
I'm still hoping for Blouin as the more-left choice but think McAdams will adapt to the district if elected. The federal reps Utah has had this century (Matheson, McAdams) were both good at adapting their voting record to their ever-changing constituencies, and D-leaning voters tended to allow it. I also think if McAdams wins and doesn't act like he's representing a strongly Dem. district, there'll be a strong push to hold him accountable.
Along with UT-01 housing a large chunk of the non-Mormon Utah vote, I'd also add that many practicing Mormons in the blue areas of the SLC metro are culturally non-Mormon, in that they likely agree with the sentiment if not the tone of Blouin's old comments. For you sports-ball types, think of it as UoU fans vs. BYU fans.
And your questions are odd, since I have repeatedly mentioned my home state here on many occasions. Is this your first time ever on this site? If so, perhaps you should lurk a bit and get to know us before coming on here completely out of the blue and accusing us of being wrong.
As for my sources, they are previous comments posted here by several different people, which adds to my suspicion that this is your first time on this site.
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
Not like the gap between Maine and Massachusetts is all that big physically. NH has the shortest non-zero coastline in the US, and that's all that separates the two states.
The objective overwhelming data we have that Mills is barely polling competitively against Platner at this point, and I don't think even any indication of a trendline towards competitiveness like Mamdani and Stratton had. Lots of time before the primary, but it's facially obvious to most people that Platner has a commanding lead of support over the past several months in a row that does not really seem to have been dampened.
Unqualified man takes the lead over qualified woman, whom backers of unqualified man have labeled “establishment.” Remind anyone else of some recent presidential elections, 2016 and 2024 for instance?
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
McMorrow made her political splash through taking the fight to republicans. For me she is the best through temperament. She is the one most clearly fit for the zeitgeist of this moment in politics.
I'm not sure why anyone thinks even a controversial candidate like El-Sayed would lose in an environment where the generic ballot is cracking into double digits.
I don't like the guy, I hope he loses the nomination, but i think it's silly and absurd to suggest any democrat would be actively disfavored so much as to be an auto-lose in Michigan this year.
I agree - I think he'd be a slight favorite but there's no reason for us to be anything but an overwhelming favorite in a light-blue state in this political environment.
I like Stevens but I think it's probably time for her to drop out so that we don't wind up with Abdul-Sayed as our nominee and fumble away this race that should be in the bag for us in this environment.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
I am contributing to El Sayed as a Michigander, but would throw my support to McMorrow if she wins the Primary.. I would vote for Haley over Rogers any day! I went to the polling data on the first poll, here. I noticed it had a plus or minus of 4 points, which would account for the difference in the two polls everyone on the Democratic side is within 4 points of each other.
As this war drags on, and the Staits remain blocked, the Affordable Crisis is only going to become more of a plus factor, the more progressive on that issue becomes. I'm already there on this economic based election.If Trump and Republicans pass this proposed budget for next year, it will throw Michiganders even further to the left of center. Food prices alone haven't even begun their spike compared to what's coming up. Add to that, and a lot of Michigan farmers are being driven off their farms due to production costs skyrocketing. Michigan is primed to be very much a member of the Blue Tsunami! Centrist positions like Haley's might not fly so high by August Primary!
I personally want to go as Progressive as possible.
By the way, Farming is the second largest sector in Michigan after Auto manufacturing. It is even larger than the Tourist industry, which Trump is also devastating.
NYC wouldn't have elected a Muslim socialist as Mayor if he had had reasonably competent opposition. Brad Lander would have easily beaten Mamdani in a one-on-one race. Mamdani won because his opponents were a failed former governor and sexual predator, the extremely unpopular and corrupt incumbent mayor, and a Republican.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
He had the competition he did because the establishment considered the failed governor competent enough not to try to undermine him in any way, and the same goes for the unpopular mayor. Monied interests, who pride themselves on their intelligence and competence, spent more money trying to get Cuomo elected mayor of NYC than the RNC/RGA spent trying to get Winsome-Sears elected governor of Virginia.
Yes. By far. Lots of attacks on Muslims adter 9/11. Remember the Michigan Militia (OKC bombing) and KKK grand dragon used to be from here. I'm not in Michigan anymore, but grew up there.
As you allude to in your post, I think the relatively blueness of NYC vs. Michigan over-rode the Islamophobia. That said, the Democratic nominee just barely cracked 50% in the NYC mayoral election in a deep blue environment...that says something...
I don't the Islamophobia is Abdul's biggest problem. Its his rhetoric and past statements. I don't think that will play that well in vote rich areas like Macomb and Oakland counties
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
What a piece of absolute shit Fairfax turned out to be, he couldn’t just off himself but had to take his wife with him and in the same house as their kids…utterly disgusting and cowardly.
I'm trying to remember what the situation was with the election with him before. Was he just the loser in the prior gubernatorial general election? Or was there a (different, obviously) story at the time?
Multiple sexual assault allegations during his tenure as LG dating to his time in college years before. These coincided with Northam's blackface scandal, so some folks thought the reports might have come forward to reduce the likelihood of Fairfax becoming governor then.
Considering that California Prop 50 outperformed the polls last year - it won by 29% while polls showed it leading by only around 20% - do we expect the same thing to happen in Virginia?
The dynamics are different here and it’s one reason I’ve been worried about this amendment even with the massive amount of ad support and how much we’re beating the GOP in spending by. In CA’s redraw, Texas had already redrawn their districts, so it was a tangible, credible push back by California voters of Trump/Republican overreach that already was passed into law. That’s an easy vote for Independents to support.
In Virginia it’s more about what could happen with Florida’s redraw that hasn’t happened yet and other states that moved a seat or two from Democratic to Republican. Which doesn’t seem as egregious and needing a correction by ending the independent commission, even if it’s only temporary, to the average voter. It’s also after an election where an overwhelming majority of voters in the state decided to ban gerrymandering by creating that independent commission to draw seats.
This argument now relies solely on Democratic furor at Trump/GOP and in any other political environment I’d say it’s very likely to lose. Voters tend to really NOT like giving more power to politicians, regardless of which party does it. We’re losing Independents by the truckload. The fact we even have a majority support in polling for this amendment in the state is a minor miracle imo.
This should be an easy 60-40 No victory at any other point in time. But because of where we are, we might just be able to barely succeed in pulling this thing across the finish line. All we need is 50.0000000001%, anything above that is gravy.
I suppose there really wasn't any interest in trying to do redistricting in KY. At least, I never saw any hint of a suggestion that it was brought up during the legislative session that just ended -- not even by any of the hotheads that made noise about it before the session started.
I see - it appears to be a yearly position, with Hathaway being mayor in 2025. It's similar to the West Virginia Supreme Court, which rotates a chief justice by year.
CA-Gov (top 2 primary): I guess the Republican lockout is still an issue. Swalwell's support seems to have split multiple ways, with a lot going to Becerra.
I don't have any real opinion on Becerra, good or ill. But if he does well (or especially if he wins) after being in the bottom of the pack for so long it's going to make it so much harder for highly implausible candidates to drop out in the future.
The only realistic way that happens is if a third Republican starts rising. It is highly unlikely at this point but there are at least a couple who appear to have the capacity do some amount of self-funding.
With the Election Day deadline only about a month and a half away, our old friend Undecided (or Not Sure) is still leading the pack in the CA-Gov race.
The campaign is now more visible; now it is not just Tom Steyer ads. Yesterday I saw two online Becerra ads and have seem more of Mahan as well. The San Jose Mayor should change his name to "Meh-an" because his ads are boring and empty. Steyer's ads are about issues people care about, mostly around affordability and fairness. I am beginning to think that he will be the next Governor of California, for better or for worse. There are now attack ads against Steyer that are funded by the CA Association of Realtors. The argument in the ads is that he made investments in private prison companies that work with ICE. While that is concerning, there is a question about the timing of when he did those investments and the cynicism of the real estate lobby which doesn't care about the issue they attack him on, but wants to weaken him for other reasons.
I still think that Hilton vs Bianco is a sideshow and that they will fade compared to the rest of the field when more people make up their minds on the contest.
It is not entirely clear what the specific issues are, but maybe they see Steyer as a traitor to his class, potentially supporting higher taxes on the wealthy. I haven't taken a deep dive into Steyer's positions on issues compared to the other candidates yet.
Cheaper housing would mean more frequent turnover though. At least among the older generation no one ever moves because they're Prop 13ed into an absurdly low tax rate.
bloody hell, top two lockout seems far from averted if this is the general trend.
i hope Kamala Harris is serious about launching a write-in campaign. there's (supposedly) a poll currently being fielded in CA for just that purpose. we'll see. she'd be better than any of these losers.
Love to see it on Brunette getting an early start. Interestingly, she’s from a very red area of Wisconsin. Chris Taylor lost Clark County 56-44 last week.
Usually politicians get a hometown boost from wherever they live/work, so if she was nominated, her possibly cutting GOP margins in red/rural areas would mean Republicans have to win the suburbs by Walker margins again and have somewhat depressed Democratic turnout in Milwaukee and Madison to win statewide.
It’ll be interesting to see whether she actually manages to win Clark and/or if an overperformance there extends to other counties that vote Republican in adjacent counties or whether it’s entirely across the board. She could probably put together an entirely different winning Democratic coalition than newly-elected State Supreme Court Justice Chris Taylor had.
Yeah. It's like a mirror of the 2024 NC Supreme Court race. Jefferson Griffin lost the state by a hair but won 10 out of the 14 (gerrymandered) Congressional districts.
I am hoping all three Democratic candidates for the 2028 NC Supreme Court election do something similar a week after the November 2026 midterms.
Former NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook has already started raising money to unseat incumbent justice Tamara Barringer or Phil's nepo baby son Jr in 2028.
There's apparently now a push for national age verification thanks to Josh Gottheimer. Given the track record of how broadly this passed in California and Colorado, I am NOT confident that it won't succeed. This is the wrong way to go about protecting kids, if that's even the true reason, and is more surveillance state policy that enables bad actors, including Silicon Valley that has been strongly pushing for age verification. We REALLY need to go out and call out any candidates who dare support this bs, the same way that AI data centers deserve to be scrutinized and shut down.
Sadly too many Democrats seem on board with the Silicon Valley propaganda. The age verification law that passed in CA had unanimous support. This is NOT going to prevent or stop child abuse like the lawmakers seem to believe it will. It's going to be used to collect data and sell it to shady actors, potentially including our own trustworthy government....
The problem is that parents are pretty overwhelmed with all the tech options and sites, and ways to foil parental control, so age verification seems like a good option to help. The anti age verification side hasn't done a good job explaining why voting against this isn't just protecting pornhub.com, etc. (i.e. "Sure, proving your age invades privacy, but if you aren't online to watch porn, so what?")
KY-Sen: Pretty good debate with 4 Democratic candidates running to succeed Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell. Democrats aren't going to win here, but they do have a crowded primary.
Here's my opinion:
-Amy McGrath stumbled, not really being specific about her goals. One question asked of her was "why do you think you can win" and she basically said "I built a coalition once; I'll do it again" - except she didn't, and lost badly in 2020
-Dale Romans says he has a "degree in life" instead of a college education, and says he "won't be ashamed" to take corporate PAC money (in response to the latter, McGrath said "I agree with Dale")
-Pamela Stevenson is a fiery speaker but appears to be establishment-oriented like McGrath. Worth noting she is the only elected official running on the Democratic side.
-Charles Booker is the obvious progressive choice, and I thought he spoke the most eloquently. I liked his 2022 campaign, so I would probably support him here.
-Logan Forsythe, the other major Democrat running, wasn't invited.
MT-2: State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy (D) is out due to accusations of pedophilia (Windy Boy will be 68 this year; he is accused of inappropriately texting a teenager). Rep. Troy Downing (R) faces no major opposition in a seat Trump carried 63-34.
Well there goes Blouin, assuming Mormons are as politically powerful in Utah as they once were.
Not looking forward to Ben McAdams, he’s anti-abortion.
If McAdams wins, he will tailor his voting record to his district. His voting record will be a pro-choice one.
And if it isn't, then he'll probably lose his primary in 2028.
I hope so. I’m not confident.
I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about being anti-choice.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
McAdams biggest boosters are NewDems and WelcomePAC, some of the primary drivers of the "pivot to the center" discourse in the party. Hardly suggest a candidate likely to tailor himself to a safely blue seat.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
Perhaps you could look up his record and post your findings here? That would make a useful contribution to the discussion.
Wow! I didn't read anything disrespectful in the remark. It would be more helpful for me, to hear what his more recent votes and remarks are. Some of us enjoy gathering information on candidates around the country, not just horse race information, although polling and horse race information helps me figure out what the locals are thinking in districts too. There should be room for both in a good comment section.
I do agree with your reaction to how the opposition will exploit this, however.
of the prior comment and yours, there is only one that is rude and disrespectful and it's not hers.
Precisely. I don't agree with someone being cancelled or having their livelihood ruined based on a stupid youthful action/posting/prank/whatever. That's a different matter from choosing someone to represent you with that history.
I am of the age that Blouin was when the posts were made, and sometimes I regret what I say here because I feel I lack nuance. Agreed.
this is the proper reaction in the 21st century. we're rapidly entering an era where almost every candidate for elected office is going to have off-color remarks in their internet history. we should give them a chance to explain, take their explanation in context with current words and actions, and not cancel everyone that says a single thing wrong. we'll have no one left if we do that.
Blouin is by far the best candidate in this field and I would hate for another obnoxious round of left/lib self-flagellation to screw us out of a good member of Congress.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
I'm pretty sure the new blue district in Utah is majority non-Mormon, which is why it's a blue district in the first place.
SLC has lots of Mormons but to your point, for these days they are in the minority population.
I'm still hoping for Blouin as the more-left choice but think McAdams will adapt to the district if elected. The federal reps Utah has had this century (Matheson, McAdams) were both good at adapting their voting record to their ever-changing constituencies, and D-leaning voters tended to allow it. I also think if McAdams wins and doesn't act like he's representing a strongly Dem. district, there'll be a strong push to hold him accountable.
Along with UT-01 housing a large chunk of the non-Mormon Utah vote, I'd also add that many practicing Mormons in the blue areas of the SLC metro are culturally non-Mormon, in that they likely agree with the sentiment if not the tone of Blouin's old comments. For you sports-ball types, think of it as UoU fans vs. BYU fans.
Very good analysis, thanks. I get it now.
McAdams would be a great candidate for a swing seat if they’d drawn two. He’s negative value in terms of House votes out for a deep blue SLC seat.
Blouin's comments in UT-01 remind me of Graham Platner's comments, and they don't seem to be hurting him.
Although, Ben McAdams seems to be a stronger candidate than Janet Mills (who has run a surprisingly weak, low-key campaign IMO).
I'm in MA, and several of my friends over the state line don't agree with you. Perhaps you could say where you are and something about your sources?
Don't agree with me about what?
And your questions are odd, since I have repeatedly mentioned my home state here on many occasions. Is this your first time ever on this site? If so, perhaps you should lurk a bit and get to know us before coming on here completely out of the blue and accusing us of being wrong.
As for my sources, they are previous comments posted here by several different people, which adds to my suspicion that this is your first time on this site.
Your profile says next to nothing about where you live, and your comments confirm my first impressions.
You've clearly never read these comment sections before today.
Coming in here, completely new, and immediately accusing us of being wrong, without having learned anything about us, is extremely arrogant and rude.
But I have, often. It just that some names stand out and others don't.
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
Massachusetts doesn't border Maine? There's no "over the state line"
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
Missouri, not Alabama. Otherwise spot on.
Not like the gap between Maine and Massachusetts is all that big physically. NH has the shortest non-zero coastline in the US, and that's all that separates the two states.
Oops, you're right. But it doesn't take long to get through that bit of NH, as long as you don't go to the beach.
This is not an appropriate comment. Everyone here is entitled to opine about races across the country, regardless of where they live.
If you disagree with something someone says, explain why you object to the *comment*, not the *commenter*.
Across what Stateline? Vermont? New Hampshire? Rhode Island? Because Massachusetts doesn't have a border with Maine?
I believe that Stateline is in Nevada. I’ll see myself out now.
The objective overwhelming data we have that Mills is barely polling competitively against Platner at this point, and I don't think even any indication of a trendline towards competitiveness like Mamdani and Stratton had. Lots of time before the primary, but it's facially obvious to most people that Platner has a commanding lead of support over the past several months in a row that does not really seem to have been dampened.
Unqualified man takes the lead over qualified woman, whom backers of unqualified man have labeled “establishment.” Remind anyone else of some recent presidential elections, 2016 and 2024 for instance?
Extremely politically illiterate response, sorry.
Just a quick correction, Riebe called Blouin inflammatory, not herself😉
Thank you, I've corrected!
Awesome thanks!
Michigan Emerson:
McMorrow 24
El Sayed 24
Stevens 13
In the Republican Primary for Governor, 21% support Perry Johnson, 20% Rep. John James, and 10% Mike Cox. Thirty-nine percent are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-tied-for-lead-in-democratic-senate-primary/
I'd love Stevens to drop out. Either of the others would be just fine.
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
I keep saying that I think he would win now but not in even a slightly redder environment.
Agreed. El Sayed would probably lose, and Stevens would be a centrist. McMorrow seems the safest option for both electability and policy.
McMorrow made her political splash through taking the fight to republicans. For me she is the best through temperament. She is the one most clearly fit for the zeitgeist of this moment in politics.
I'm not sure why anyone thinks even a controversial candidate like El-Sayed would lose in an environment where the generic ballot is cracking into double digits.
I don't like the guy, I hope he loses the nomination, but i think it's silly and absurd to suggest any democrat would be actively disfavored so much as to be an auto-lose in Michigan this year.
I agree - I think he'd be a slight favorite but there's no reason for us to be anything but an overwhelming favorite in a light-blue state in this political environment.
I like Stevens but I think it's probably time for her to drop out so that we don't wind up with Abdul-Sayed as our nominee and fumble away this race that should be in the bag for us in this environment.
I like Abdul but I worry he’d lose the general due to Islamophobia. I’m backing Mallory for that reason — were this a bluer state I’d be 110% Abdul.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
Another reason I’m backing Mallory. She seems more independent than Haley, who is a corporate stooge.
McMorrow has some problems when it comes to being a "corporate stooge", but much less so than Stevens.
McMorrow will likely vote with progressives on most if not all issues. I'm not seeing a downside with her at all
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Spanberger isn't a Manchin/Sinema, but she's not exactly progressive. A lot of these actions are really annoying.
https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/virginia/virginia-va-abigail-spanberger-bills-guns-marijuana-labor/291-3d1bfd2a-395a-4ab4-99e5-90af8735944d
https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2026/04/14/virginia-spanberger-bill-amendments-guns-cannabis-paid-leave-unions-2026
they did say 'more progressive than she lets on', not 'she's progressive'.
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
Michigan has more Republicans. I worry Islamophobia would motivate higher GOP turnout.
I am contributing to El Sayed as a Michigander, but would throw my support to McMorrow if she wins the Primary.. I would vote for Haley over Rogers any day! I went to the polling data on the first poll, here. I noticed it had a plus or minus of 4 points, which would account for the difference in the two polls everyone on the Democratic side is within 4 points of each other.
As this war drags on, and the Staits remain blocked, the Affordable Crisis is only going to become more of a plus factor, the more progressive on that issue becomes. I'm already there on this economic based election.If Trump and Republicans pass this proposed budget for next year, it will throw Michiganders even further to the left of center. Food prices alone haven't even begun their spike compared to what's coming up. Add to that, and a lot of Michigan farmers are being driven off their farms due to production costs skyrocketing. Michigan is primed to be very much a member of the Blue Tsunami! Centrist positions like Haley's might not fly so high by August Primary!
I personally want to go as Progressive as possible.
By the way, Farming is the second largest sector in Michigan after Auto manufacturing. It is even larger than the Tourist industry, which Trump is also devastating.
NYC wouldn't have elected a Muslim socialist as Mayor if he had had reasonably competent opposition. Brad Lander would have easily beaten Mamdani in a one-on-one race. Mamdani won because his opponents were a failed former governor and sexual predator, the extremely unpopular and corrupt incumbent mayor, and a Republican.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
He had the competition he did because the establishment considered the failed governor competent enough not to try to undermine him in any way, and the same goes for the unpopular mayor. Monied interests, who pride themselves on their intelligence and competence, spent more money trying to get Cuomo elected mayor of NYC than the RNC/RGA spent trying to get Winsome-Sears elected governor of Virginia.
Yes. By far. Lots of attacks on Muslims adter 9/11. Remember the Michigan Militia (OKC bombing) and KKK grand dragon used to be from here. I'm not in Michigan anymore, but grew up there.
As you allude to in your post, I think the relatively blueness of NYC vs. Michigan over-rode the Islamophobia. That said, the Democratic nominee just barely cracked 50% in the NYC mayoral election in a deep blue environment...that says something...
It says that New York is not that liberal. New York previously elected Giuliani, Bloomberg and Adams. But it was leftist enough to elect Mamdani.
I don't the Islamophobia is Abdul's biggest problem. Its his rhetoric and past statements. I don't think that will play that well in vote rich areas like Macomb and Oakland counties
Holy shit: former Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax killed his wife and then himself last night.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/us/justin-fairfax-virginia-investigation
Even worse, their teenage children were home at the time. Just awful.
It is. Ugh.
Good god
That's horrible. What the fuck.
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/former-virginia-lt-gov-justin-fairfax-kills-wife-self-divorce-police-rcna33212
What a piece of absolute shit Fairfax turned out to be, he couldn’t just off himself but had to take his wife with him and in the same house as their kids…utterly disgusting and cowardly.
Right? Ugh.
I'm trying to remember what the situation was with the election with him before. Was he just the loser in the prior gubernatorial general election? Or was there a (different, obviously) story at the time?
Multiple sexual assault allegations during his tenure as LG dating to his time in college years before. These coincided with Northam's blackface scandal, so some folks thought the reports might have come forward to reduce the likelihood of Fairfax becoming governor then.
Quantus poll VA redistricting:
Yes 51
No 47
https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/2044748138712313919?s=20
Considering that California Prop 50 outperformed the polls last year - it won by 29% while polls showed it leading by only around 20% - do we expect the same thing to happen in Virginia?
I think so, yes.
I'm not so sure. And if it did, it wouldn't be 9% as in California.
The dynamics are different here and it’s one reason I’ve been worried about this amendment even with the massive amount of ad support and how much we’re beating the GOP in spending by. In CA’s redraw, Texas had already redrawn their districts, so it was a tangible, credible push back by California voters of Trump/Republican overreach that already was passed into law. That’s an easy vote for Independents to support.
In Virginia it’s more about what could happen with Florida’s redraw that hasn’t happened yet and other states that moved a seat or two from Democratic to Republican. Which doesn’t seem as egregious and needing a correction by ending the independent commission, even if it’s only temporary, to the average voter. It’s also after an election where an overwhelming majority of voters in the state decided to ban gerrymandering by creating that independent commission to draw seats.
This argument now relies solely on Democratic furor at Trump/GOP and in any other political environment I’d say it’s very likely to lose. Voters tend to really NOT like giving more power to politicians, regardless of which party does it. We’re losing Independents by the truckload. The fact we even have a majority support in polling for this amendment in the state is a minor miracle imo.
This should be an easy 60-40 No victory at any other point in time. But because of where we are, we might just be able to barely succeed in pulling this thing across the finish line. All we need is 50.0000000001%, anything above that is gravy.
In your UT-1 item above, you have Riebe calling Riebe "too inflammatory". Should the second Riebe be Nate Blouin?
Thank you, I've fixed!
I suppose there really wasn't any interest in trying to do redistricting in KY. At least, I never saw any hint of a suggestion that it was brought up during the legislative session that just ended -- not even by any of the hotheads that made noise about it before the session started.
Makes sense. A 6-0 map of Kentucky would require baconmandering Louisville, and there never seemed to be much appetite for that.
Small additions to the NJ-11 item:
-While Hathaway is on the Randolph council, he also holds the title of mayor.
-Sherill's unnamed 2025 Republican opponent was former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.
Hathaway is not the mayor anymore! The position rotates among the council, and Mark Forstenhausler is mayor until December. https://www.randolphnj.org/directory.aspx?eid=36
I see - it appears to be a yearly position, with Hathaway being mayor in 2025. It's similar to the West Virginia Supreme Court, which rotates a chief justice by year.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-april/
CA-Gov (top 2 primary): I guess the Republican lockout is still an issue. Swalwell's support seems to have split multiple ways, with a lot going to Becerra.
🟥 Steve Hilton: 17% (+4)
🟥 Chad Bianco: 14% (+3)
🟦 Tom Steyer: 14% (+4)
🟦 Xavier Becerra: 10% (+7)
🟦 Katie Porter: 10% (+2)
🟦 Matt Mahan: 5% (+2)
🟦 Antonio Villaraigosa: 3% (=)
🟦 Betty Yee: 1%
🟦 Tony Thurmond: 1%
⬜ Not sure: 23%
(+/- change vs 3-7/9)
Emerson (A) | 4/14-15 | 1,000 LV
I don't have any real opinion on Becerra, good or ill. But if he does well (or especially if he wins) after being in the bottom of the pack for so long it's going to make it so much harder for highly implausible candidates to drop out in the future.
It would be a twist if Becerra and Steyer made it to the general instead of Bianco or Hilton.
Unlikely, repugs are playing with about 40% of the vote, there's a good chance one of them gets to the mid 20's
The only realistic way that happens is if a third Republican starts rising. It is highly unlikely at this point but there are at least a couple who appear to have the capacity do some amount of self-funding.
Becerra’s had state government experience both as Attorney General and in the State Assembly. He might fit in just fine.
We may be seeing a real race emerging now since Swalwell dropped out.
Xmentum!
I hate to be dismissive, but I really do think the chances of the Dems being locked out is EXTREMELY small. Not zero, though.
Becerra getting most of the Swalwell vote makes it more likely atm.
Add up the D vote and it only gets to 44%. The Lion's share of those undecideds are D's and will likely push 1 (if not 2-3) of the Da ahead of Bianco.
With the Election Day deadline only about a month and a half away, our old friend Undecided (or Not Sure) is still leading the pack in the CA-Gov race.
The campaign is now more visible; now it is not just Tom Steyer ads. Yesterday I saw two online Becerra ads and have seem more of Mahan as well. The San Jose Mayor should change his name to "Meh-an" because his ads are boring and empty. Steyer's ads are about issues people care about, mostly around affordability and fairness. I am beginning to think that he will be the next Governor of California, for better or for worse. There are now attack ads against Steyer that are funded by the CA Association of Realtors. The argument in the ads is that he made investments in private prison companies that work with ICE. While that is concerning, there is a question about the timing of when he did those investments and the cynicism of the real estate lobby which doesn't care about the issue they attack him on, but wants to weaken him for other reasons.
I still think that Hilton vs Bianco is a sideshow and that they will fade compared to the rest of the field when more people make up their minds on the contest.
Why does the Real Estate industry dislike him?
It is not entirely clear what the specific issues are, but maybe they see Steyer as a traitor to his class, potentially supporting higher taxes on the wealthy. I haven't taken a deep dive into Steyer's positions on issues compared to the other candidates yet.
He wants to increase property taxes on commercial real estate and make housing cheaper. Lose-Lose for real estate interests.
Cheaper housing would mean more frequent turnover though. At least among the older generation no one ever moves because they're Prop 13ed into an absurdly low tax rate.
bloody hell, top two lockout seems far from averted if this is the general trend.
i hope Kamala Harris is serious about launching a write-in campaign. there's (supposedly) a poll currently being fielded in CA for just that purpose. we'll see. she'd be better than any of these losers.
Love to see it on Brunette getting an early start. Interestingly, she’s from a very red area of Wisconsin. Chris Taylor lost Clark County 56-44 last week.
Usually politicians get a hometown boost from wherever they live/work, so if she was nominated, her possibly cutting GOP margins in red/rural areas would mean Republicans have to win the suburbs by Walker margins again and have somewhat depressed Democratic turnout in Milwaukee and Madison to win statewide.
It’ll be interesting to see whether she actually manages to win Clark and/or if an overperformance there extends to other counties that vote Republican in adjacent counties or whether it’s entirely across the board. She could probably put together an entirely different winning Democratic coalition than newly-elected State Supreme Court Justice Chris Taylor had.
Yeah. It's like a mirror of the 2024 NC Supreme Court race. Jefferson Griffin lost the state by a hair but won 10 out of the 14 (gerrymandered) Congressional districts.
I am hoping all three Democratic candidates for the 2028 NC Supreme Court election do something similar a week after the November 2026 midterms.
Former NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook has already started raising money to unseat incumbent justice Tamara Barringer or Phil's nepo baby son Jr in 2028.
https://nitter.net/JudgeChrisBrook/status/2031385941282107505#m
#NJ11 voting update
10 AM, all three counties (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
Eday only
🔵 Democratic 5996
🔴 Republican 5671
⚪️ Unaffiliated 1846
Eday + early + mail
🔵 Democratic 41789
🔴 Republican 20350
⚪️ Unaffiliated 9728
imo, the ap calls it within an hour of the polls closing
Probably 30-40 min after polls close, maybe 10 min if it's a blowout.
12 PM, all three counties (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
Eday only
🔴 Republican 10452
🔵 Democratic 10302
⚪️ Unaffiliated 3326
Eday + early + mail
🔵 Democratic 46089
🔴 Republican 25129
⚪️ Unaffiliated 11207
How many Republicans do you think will be Mejia voters?
Not many.
There's apparently now a push for national age verification thanks to Josh Gottheimer. Given the track record of how broadly this passed in California and Colorado, I am NOT confident that it won't succeed. This is the wrong way to go about protecting kids, if that's even the true reason, and is more surveillance state policy that enables bad actors, including Silicon Valley that has been strongly pushing for age verification. We REALLY need to go out and call out any candidates who dare support this bs, the same way that AI data centers deserve to be scrutinized and shut down.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8250/text
Someone in 2028 primary Gottheimer stat.
I'm shocked he didn't get primaried this cycle, especially after his failed governor run
Sadly too many Democrats seem on board with the Silicon Valley propaganda. The age verification law that passed in CA had unanimous support. This is NOT going to prevent or stop child abuse like the lawmakers seem to believe it will. It's going to be used to collect data and sell it to shady actors, potentially including our own trustworthy government....
Primary them all then, not just Gottheimer.
The problem is that parents are pretty overwhelmed with all the tech options and sites, and ways to foil parental control, so age verification seems like a good option to help. The anti age verification side hasn't done a good job explaining why voting against this isn't just protecting pornhub.com, etc. (i.e. "Sure, proving your age invades privacy, but if you aren't online to watch porn, so what?")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO8995H5HPY
KY-Sen: Pretty good debate with 4 Democratic candidates running to succeed Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell. Democrats aren't going to win here, but they do have a crowded primary.
Here's my opinion:
-Amy McGrath stumbled, not really being specific about her goals. One question asked of her was "why do you think you can win" and she basically said "I built a coalition once; I'll do it again" - except she didn't, and lost badly in 2020
-Dale Romans says he has a "degree in life" instead of a college education, and says he "won't be ashamed" to take corporate PAC money (in response to the latter, McGrath said "I agree with Dale")
-Pamela Stevenson is a fiery speaker but appears to be establishment-oriented like McGrath. Worth noting she is the only elected official running on the Democratic side.
-Charles Booker is the obvious progressive choice, and I thought he spoke the most eloquently. I liked his 2022 campaign, so I would probably support him here.
-Logan Forsythe, the other major Democrat running, wasn't invited.
Stevenson's the only incumbent elected, while Booker was a state rep for one term at least.
I literally forgot that McGrath and Booker were both running again.
In terms of getting crossover vote for wave insurance, Romans is the only one not coded as insider, politician, or suit.
I’m interested to see what his quarterlies look like.
Booker is the only one in our lane, but our lane isn’t going to do well state wide in Kentucky.
https://www.montanarightnow.com/helena/democrat-jonathan-windy-boy-exits-race-for-montanas-2nd-congressional-district-amid-sexual-abuse-allegations/article_8693444c-f4a4-47f0-a2ba-8f465b271988.html
MT-2: State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy (D) is out due to accusations of pedophilia (Windy Boy will be 68 this year; he is accused of inappropriately texting a teenager). Rep. Troy Downing (R) faces no major opposition in a seat Trump carried 63-34.
Good god.