I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about an anti-choice agenda.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
And your questions are odd, since I have repeatedly mentioned my home state here on many occasions. Is this your first time ever on this site? If so, perhaps you should lurk a bit and get to know us before coming on here completely out of the blue and accusing us of being wrong.
As for my sources, they are previous comments posted here by several different people, which adds to my suspicion that this is your first time on this site.
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
NYC wouldn't have elected a Muslim socialist as Mayor if he had had reasonably competent opposition. Brad Lander would have easily beaten Mamdani in a one-on-one race. Mamdani won because his opponents were a failed former governor and sexual predator, the extremely unpopular and corrupt incumbent mayor, and a Republican.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
Considering that California Prop 50 outperformed the polls last year - it won by 29% while polls showed it leading by only around 20% - do we expect the same thing to happen in Virginia?
The dynamics are different here and it’s one reason I’ve been worried about this amendment even with the massive amount of ad support and how much we’re beating the GOP in spending by. In CA’s redraw, Texas had already redrawn their districts, so it was a tangible, credible push back by California voters of Trump/Republican overreach that already was passed into law. That’s an easy vote for Independents to support.
In Virginia it’s more about what could happen with Florida’s redraw that hasn’t happened yet and other states that moved a seat or two from Democratic to Republican. Which doesn’t seem as egregious and needing a correction by ending the independent commission, even if it’s only temporary, to the average voter. It’s also after an election where an overwhelming majority of voters in the state decided to ban gerrymandering by creating that independent commission to draw seats.
This argument now relies solely on Democratic furor at Trump/GOP and in any other political environment I’d say it’s very likely to lose. Voters tend to really NOT like giving more power to politicians, regardless of which party does it. We’re losing Independents by the truckload. The fact we even have a majority support in polling for this amendment in the state is a minor miracle imo.
This should be an easy 60-40 No victory at any other point in time. But because of where we are, we might just be able to barely succeed in pulling this thing across the finish line. All we need is 50.0000000001%, anything above that is gravy.
I suppose there really wasn't any interest in trying to do redistricting in KY. At least, I never saw any hint of a suggestion that it was brought up during the legislative session that just ended -- not even by any of the hotheads that made noise about it before the session started.
I see - it appears to be a yearly position, with Hathaway being mayor in 2025. It's similar to the West Virginia Supreme Court, which rotates a chief justice by year.
CA-Gov (top 2 primary): I guess the Republican lockout is still an issue. Swalwell's support seems to have split multiple ways, with a lot going to Becerra.
I don't have any real opinion on Becerra, good or ill. But if he does well (or especially if he wins) after being in the bottom of the pack for so long it's going to make it so much harder for highly implausible candidates to drop out in the future.
Love to see it on Brunette getting an early start. Interestingly, she’s from a very red area of Wisconsin. Chris Taylor lost Clark County 56-44 last week.
I am hoping all three Democratic candidates for the 2028 NC Supreme Court election do something similar a week after the November 2026 midterms.
Former NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook has already started raising money to unseat incumbent justice Tamara Barringer or Phil's nepo baby son Jr in 2028.
Well there goes Blouin, assuming Mormons are as politically powerful in Utah as they once were.
Not looking forward to Ben McAdams, he’s anti-abortion.
If McAdams wins, he will tailor his voting record to his district. His voting record will be a pro-choice one.
And if it isn't, then he'll probably lose his primary in 2028.
I hope so. I’m not confident.
I’m probably more confident than you are with McAdams potentially being pro-choice in UT-01.
When McAdams represented UT-04 after unseating Mia Love back in 2018, early on in office he was pressured by constituents to being more anti-choice whereas he made a more nuanced view about the issue to the extent where abortion would be applicable if it were a life threatening matter for the woman.
His record as Utah State Senator in District 2 also has been scrutinized as being anti-choice although it may have been as it relates to his constituents. I have though made the point months ago that McAdams doesn’t have an agenda where he’s preaching about an anti-choice agenda.
That said, for six years McAdams was Mayor of Salt Lake County, which does in fact include Salt Lake City. He may transition to representing UT-01 better than we’d expect given his familiarity with both.
I just posted this in yesterday's comments but I'll say again:
I would hope that people aren't judged based solely on what they posted online in their teens and 20s (Blouin is 36 and the posts were written "between 2009 and 2015" so he was 17 to 25).
I don't know. Sure, we don't forever condemn someone when that happens. But that doesn't mean we want to have them represent us. What has the record been since those remarks? If it's been exemplary, and in some fashion exculpatory (working well with groups they had spuriously denounced in their youth), that can be a different story. We don't have to be purists, no, but we can aim high in expecting those who represent us to represent our values consistently.
I can say with near 100% certainty that everyone, including all politicians, of all ages and all ideologies, has controversial thoughts in their teens and 20s, including thoughts that have no bearing on their actual beliefs as they mature. The only difference is that starting with my generation, people had the ability to post them online. It simply does not change my opinion of Blouin one bit.
Perhaps you could look up his record and post your findings here? That would make a useful contribution to the discussion.
Perhaps you could learn something about the culture and regulars here before being rude and disrespectful to everyone.
I am of the age that Blouin was when the posts were made, and sometimes I regret what I say here because I feel I lack nuance. Agreed.
FWIW it's my understanding that SLC (which makes up the bulk of UT-01) is fairly diverse and non-Mormon compared to the rest of the state so those anti-Mormon comments may not be such a big issue. I do think the Platner comparisons are valid because generally people seem tired of talking about things like old posts, but of course there is a limit.
I was thinking this too. How politically powerful is LDS in Salt Lake City/District 1?
Looking at the campaign websites for the Dem candidates (including withdrawn candidates), only Ben's mentions being Mormon on his about page, and it's only a single sentence discussing what he learned from his mission trip. Seems to indicate that being Mormon or having affiliations with LDS is no where close to being a prerequisite for office in that part of the state.
I'm pretty sure the new blue district in Utah is majority non-Mormon, which is why it's a blue district in the first place.
Blouin's comments in UT-01 remind me of Graham Platner's comments, and they don't seem to be hurting him.
Although, Ben McAdams seems to be a stronger candidate than Janet Mills (who has run a surprisingly weak, low-key campaign IMO).
I'm in MA, and several of my friends over the state line don't agree with you. Perhaps you could say where you are and something about your sources?
Don't agree with me about what?
And your questions are odd, since I have repeatedly mentioned my home state here on many occasions. Is this your first time ever on this site? If so, perhaps you should lurk a bit and get to know us before coming on here completely out of the blue and accusing us of being wrong.
As for my sources, they are previous comments posted here by several different people, which adds to my suspicion that this is your first time on this site.
Your profile says next to nothing about where you live, and your comments confirm my first impressions.
You've clearly never read these comment sections before today.
Coming in here, completely new, and immediately accusing us of being wrong, without having learned anything about us, is extremely arrogant and rude.
People can have opinions on candidates in states where we do not live.
I'm in NH, not ME, but at this point the data we have available makes it clear that Mills is not impressing the voters in Maine. She's won statewide in the past but all primary polling shows her getting crushed. For the general election Platner consistently polls better than Mills against Collins.
McAdams being stronger than her is not a huge lift.
I don't need to live in Maine to assess that. Neither does Kildere53.
Massachusetts doesn't border Maine? There's no "over the state line"
While it was in none of our lifetimes, Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
Maine broke off to become its own state in 1820. IIRC it was the free state admitted to balance the inclusion of Alabama, a slave state, which was admitted in 1819.
This is not an appropriate comment. Everyone here is entitled to opine about races across the country, regardless of where they live.
If you disagree with something someone says, explain why you object to the *comment*, not the *commenter*.
Just a quick correction, Riebe called Blouin inflammatory, not herself😉
Thank you, I've corrected!
Awesome thanks!
Michigan Emerson:
McMorrow 24
El Sayed 24
Stevens 13
In the Republican Primary for Governor, 21% support Perry Johnson, 20% Rep. John James, and 10% Mike Cox. Thirty-nine percent are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-tied-for-lead-in-democratic-senate-primary/
I'd love Stevens to drop out. Either of the others would be just fine.
I don't think El Sayed would win a general election, as much as may agree with him on the issues. Stevens dropping out would very likely benefit McMorrow.
I keep saying that I think he would win now but not in even a slightly redder environment.
Agreed. El Sayed would probably lose, and Stevens would be a centrist. McMorrow seems the safest option for both electability and policy.
I like Abdul but I worry he’d lose the general due to Islamophobia. I’m backing Mallory for that reason — were this a bluer state I’d be 110% Abdul.
Mallory is progressive but she's not in your face about it (she projects a moderate no-nonsense vibe). But she's no shirking violet and I can imagine her in Congress verbally eviscerating someone like Cruz or Hawley in a judicial confirmation hearing.
Another reason I’m backing Mallory. She seems more independent than Haley, who is a corporate stooge.
McMorrow has some problems when it comes to being a "corporate stooge", but much less so than Stevens.
She reminds me a bit of Spanberger from what I’ve seen from her. Strong willed, appears centrist on the outside but actually more progressive than she lets on
Is the state of Michigan more Islamophobic than the city of New York? Did you think we would elect a Muslim socialist as Mayor? Of course I realize New York is much more Democratic and socially liberal than Michigan, but my question is about Islamophobia.
Michigan has more Republicans. I worry Islamophobia would motivate higher GOP turnout.
NYC wouldn't have elected a Muslim socialist as Mayor if he had had reasonably competent opposition. Brad Lander would have easily beaten Mamdani in a one-on-one race. Mamdani won because his opponents were a failed former governor and sexual predator, the extremely unpopular and corrupt incumbent mayor, and a Republican.
I don't think there's a strong basis to say Lander would have beaten Mamdani one-on-one, considering that he did so poorly in the Democratic primary. Full disclosure: I like Lander very much and ranked him 1st in the primary, but he lacks charisma. And it's not like he's substantially to Mamdani's right.
It's an interesting hypothetical. It's not clear who would have won.
Mamdani overperformed his polling at both stages, had a lot of energy on his side, and is a great communicator. But the party establishment was not a fan of him.
Lander was more broadly appealing to the party's base, but didn't really excite any groups within the party.
Forced to guess I think Mamdani still might have won, but I'm not particularly confident.
Holy shit: former Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax killed his wife and then himself last night.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/us/justin-fairfax-virginia-investigation
Even worse, their teenage children were home at the time. Just awful.
It is. Ugh.
Good god
That's horrible. What the fuck.
Apparently they were looking into getting a divorce, and Justin was summoned to appear in court. He went down into the basement to kill her, then ran upstairs to his bedroom to kill himself. Their teenage son found them and alerted the authorities.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/former-virginia-lt-gov-justin-fairfax-kills-wife-self-divorce-police-rcna33212
Quantus poll VA redistricting:
Yes 51
No 47
https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/2044748138712313919?s=20
Considering that California Prop 50 outperformed the polls last year - it won by 29% while polls showed it leading by only around 20% - do we expect the same thing to happen in Virginia?
I think so, yes.
I'm not so sure. And if it did, it wouldn't be 9% as in California.
The dynamics are different here and it’s one reason I’ve been worried about this amendment even with the massive amount of ad support and how much we’re beating the GOP in spending by. In CA’s redraw, Texas had already redrawn their districts, so it was a tangible, credible push back by California voters of Trump/Republican overreach that already was passed into law. That’s an easy vote for Independents to support.
In Virginia it’s more about what could happen with Florida’s redraw that hasn’t happened yet and other states that moved a seat or two from Democratic to Republican. Which doesn’t seem as egregious and needing a correction by ending the independent commission, even if it’s only temporary, to the average voter. It’s also after an election where an overwhelming majority of voters in the state decided to ban gerrymandering by creating that independent commission to draw seats.
This argument now relies solely on Democratic furor at Trump/GOP and in any other political environment I’d say it’s very likely to lose. Voters tend to really NOT like giving more power to politicians, regardless of which party does it. We’re losing Independents by the truckload. The fact we even have a majority support in polling for this amendment in the state is a minor miracle imo.
This should be an easy 60-40 No victory at any other point in time. But because of where we are, we might just be able to barely succeed in pulling this thing across the finish line. All we need is 50.0000000001%, anything above that is gravy.
In your UT-1 item above, you have Riebe calling Riebe "too inflammatory". Should the second Riebe be Nate Blouin?
Thank you, I've fixed!
I suppose there really wasn't any interest in trying to do redistricting in KY. At least, I never saw any hint of a suggestion that it was brought up during the legislative session that just ended -- not even by any of the hotheads that made noise about it before the session started.
Makes sense. A 6-0 map of Kentucky would require baconmandering Louisville, and there never seemed to be much appetite for that.
Small additions to the NJ-11 item:
-While Hathaway is on the Randolph council, he also holds the title of mayor.
-Sherill's unnamed 2025 Republican opponent was former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.
Hathaway is not the mayor anymore! The position rotates among the council, and Mark Forstenhausler is mayor until December. https://www.randolphnj.org/directory.aspx?eid=36
I see - it appears to be a yearly position, with Hathaway being mayor in 2025. It's similar to the West Virginia Supreme Court, which rotates a chief justice by year.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-april/
CA-Gov (top 2 primary): I guess the Republican lockout is still an issue. Swalwell's support seems to have split multiple ways, with a lot going to Becerra.
🟥 Steve Hilton: 17% (+4)
🟥 Chad Bianco: 14% (+3)
🟦 Tom Steyer: 14% (+4)
🟦 Xavier Becerra: 10% (+7)
🟦 Katie Porter: 10% (+2)
🟦 Matt Mahan: 5% (+2)
🟦 Antonio Villaraigosa: 3% (=)
🟦 Betty Yee: 1%
🟦 Tony Thurmond: 1%
⬜ Not sure: 23%
(+/- change vs 3-7/9)
Emerson (A) | 4/14-15 | 1,000 LV
I don't have any real opinion on Becerra, good or ill. But if he does well (or especially if he wins) after being in the bottom of the pack for so long it's going to make it so much harder for highly implausible candidates to drop out in the future.
It would be a twist if Becerra and Steyer made it to the general instead of Bianco or Hilton.
Unlikely, repugs are playing with about 40% of the vote, there's a good chance one of them gets to the mid 20's
Love to see it on Brunette getting an early start. Interestingly, she’s from a very red area of Wisconsin. Chris Taylor lost Clark County 56-44 last week.
I am hoping all three Democratic candidates for the 2028 NC Supreme Court election do something similar a week after the November 2026 midterms.
Former NC Court of Appeals justice Chris Brook has already started raising money to unseat incumbent justice Tamara Barringer or Phil's nepo baby son Jr in 2028.
https://nitter.net/JudgeChrisBrook/status/2031385941282107505#m
#NJ11 voting update
10 AM, all three counties (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
Eday only
🔵 Democratic 5996
🔴 Republican 5671
⚪️ Unaffiliated 1846
Eday + early + mail
🔵 Democratic 41789
🔴 Republican 20350
⚪️ Unaffiliated 9728
imo, the ap calls it within an hour of the polls closing