Morning Digest: Why a last-minute bailout in Missouri won't lead to ballot shenanigans

Sam Graves once benefited from just such a maneuver—and his colleagues changed the law

Republican Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri. (Credit: Sam Graves Facebook)

Leading Off

MO-06

Republican Rep. Sam Graves announced just days before Missouri’s filing deadline that he wouldn’t run for a 14th term, but his late-breaking retirement won’t engender any ballot shenanigans—thanks, ironically, to Graves himself.

That’s because the state automatically reopens filing in any races in which a candidate who had filed to run formally withdraws within two business days of the deadline, which is March 31 this year. The new deadline will fall on April 10.

Despite submitting paperwork last month to seek reelection in the safely red 6th Congressional District, Graves said Friday morning that he would call it a career after all and took his name off the ballot that afternoon. Election officials tell The Downballot that Graves’ departure falls within the window that triggers an extension for new candidates to jump into the race.

Most states, though, don’t allow for late entries if a candidate unexpectedly bails at the last minute—a gap that has long allowed incumbents to engineer their retirements to ensure that their chosen successor faces only minimal opposition.

Just this cycle alone, both Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia of Illinois and Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana abruptly withdrew from the ballot after tipping off their preferred replacement—and no one else—about their plans.

In a fitting twist, Graves was the beneficiary of just such a maneuver more than three decades ago when he was serving his first term in the Missouri House of Representatives.

On the day of the filing deadline in 1994, the Missouri Independent’s Jason Hancock recently recounted, Graves was standing in line right behind state Sen. Glen Klippenstein when Klippenstein unexpectedly informed election officials he was dropping his reelection campaign.

According to reporting at the time, Graves’ appearance was no fortuitous accident.

“The switch Klippenstein arranged was worthy of Missouri’s most seasoned, and sneaky, political strategists,” the Associated Press’ Scott Charton wrote of the move, which allowed Graves to claim the GOP nod without serious opposition.

Graves easily won the race to succeed Klippenstein, but his colleagues responded to the incident the following year by passing a law to reopen candidate filing in the event of a late withdrawal.

The new status quo, though, ended up helping none other than Graves win his first race for Congress in 2000.

Democratic Rep. Pat Danner, who had served the 6th District for four terms, had initially announced she would run again despite being diagnosed with breast cancer. But party leaders were caught off guard four months later when Danner ended her reelection campaign on the final day of filing, and her son, former state Sen. Steve Danner, said he’d run instead.

That maneuver reopened the filing period, an opportunity Graves took advantage of. Though he easily won the GOP primary, the general election was a far tougher affair, but Graves ultimately defeated the younger Danner 51-47.

That election marked the start of what would prove to be a new political era for the 6th District and in Missouri as a whole. While Bill Clinton had carried the district 46-42 in 1996, according to analyst Kiernan Park-Egan, George W. Bush won it 53-44 at the same time as Graves was securing his first term.

Thanks to that shift, Graves quickly became entrenched as voters turned against the Democratic Party up and down the ballot. The GOP’s gains in northern Missouri were soon matched in the rest of the state and turned this longtime bellwether into a conservative stronghold.

In 2008, though, Democrats decided to test just how permanent those shifts were. Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes decided to run against Graves, and both parties prepared for what promised to be a competitive battle.

It didn’t turn out that way, however. Graves fired off ads saying that Barnes’ decision to attend a fundraiser at Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home in California showed she believed in “San Francisco-style values.” The narrator summed up those values as, “Yes, to same sex marriage. Yes, to abortion. Yes, to amnesty for illegal immigrants.”

Graves won in a 59-37 landslide as John McCain was carrying his constituency by a smaller, but still sizable, 54-45 spread. The 6th District would only become more and more Republican over the ensuing years, and Graves, who now serves as chair of the influential House Transportation Committee, never again had to worry about Democratic opposition.

The winner of the Aug. 4 Republican primary should be similarly situated, even though no one’s sure what district lines will be used this year. (See our MO Ballot item below.) While the revamped 6th would get bluer under a new map passed by Republicans last year, it would remain hostile turf for Democrats. Under the old lines, it voted for Donald Trump by a 69-30 margin in 2024; the new version would have supported him 63-36.

The uncertainty isn’t stopping the GOP field from starting to take shape. Conservative radio host Chris Stigall said shortly after Graves’ announcement that he would step aside from his nationally syndicated show and run to replace him. Other local Republicans are also talking about getting in.

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The GOP gets walloped—in Florida

Redistricting Roundup

MO Ballot, MO Redistricting

A Missouri judge ruled on Friday that a new Republican-drawn congressional map had taken legal effect, rejecting arguments that the map should have been paused after opponents submitted signatures in December to place a referendum on the ballot.

Shortly after organizers filed those signatures, Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said that the map was “officially in effect.” In response, two voters who signed referendum petitions filed a lawsuit, with the backing of the Missouri ACLU, asking the courts to declare that the map had been suspended pending a vote later this year.

However, in an 18-page opinion, Cole County Circuit Judge Brian Stumpe found that the plaintiffs lacked standing to sue because they had “failed to demonstrate that they suffer a personal injury distinct from the public at large.”

Even though Stumpe’s conclusion was enough to end matters there, he also addressed the merits of plaintiffs’ arguments “in the interests of time and judicial economy.” There, however, they fared no better.

Opponents had argued that the act of filing signatures automatically suspended the map, but Stumpe disagreed, holding that a challenged law is only suspended after election officials verify that a sufficient number of valid signatures have been submitted.

That verification process could last until July, according to election officials, even though organizers said last week that data they obtained from the state shows that a sufficient number of signatures have passed muster to allow the referendum to go forward.

The ACLU said in a statement that it would immediately appeal, adding that Friday’s ruling “defies over a century of judicial precedent while rendering Missourians’ constitutional right to the referendum process second to the will of politicians.”

Governors

CA-Gov

Despite his extreme spending advantage, polls continue to show billionaire Tom Steyer bunched together with several other Democrats competing for a spot in the November general election for California’s open governorship.

New data from AdImpact finds Steyer has spent or reserved an eye-popping $90 million in airtime ahead of June’s top-two primary, an amount equal to 78% of all ad spending in the race. His nearest rival, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, has received $12 million in air support, thanks mostly to outside groups.

Rep. Eric Swalwell, meanwhile, has gotten $4.7 million in help, again, chiefly from third-party organizations. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is close behind at $4.4 million, though that’s been spread out over a much longer period of time, since he first went on the air in September. Former Rep. Katie Porter has barely registered so far, spending about $500,000 on online advertising.

Everyone else in this crowded field of contenders is even further behind, including the two leading Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton. According to AdImpact, neither has spent so much as $50,000 on ads.

Yet despite Steyer’s monster financial edge, few polls have shown him earning a ticket to the general election. Rather, he’s still jockeying with Swalwell and Porter, with other Democrats further back, while Bianco and Hilton are both in the running and have appeared in the top two slots together in some polling.

GA-Gov

Former Gov. Roy Barnes and former Atlanta Mayor and civil rights leader Andrew Young both endorsed Michael Thurmond’s bid for Georgia’s open governorship last week. Thurmond, the former chief executive officer of populous DeKalb County, is one of five notable Democrats seeking his party’s nomination.

House

CO-01

Longtime Rep. Diana DeGette averted a career-ending disaster on Friday when she narrowly secured a spot on the June 30 Democratic primary ballot at a party gathering.

Attorney Melat Kiros outpaced DeGette by a wide 67-33 margin among the 235 delegates who participated at the party’s district-level convention, known locally as an assembly. The incumbent, though, managed to finish just above the 30% she needed to continue her campaign for Colorado’s 1st Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat based in Denver.

Because DeGette chose not to collect signatures, which is the other way that candidates in the Centennial State can qualify for the ballot, her campaign would have ended if she’d fallen below 30% at Friday’s event.

A third Democrat, University of Colorado Regent Wanda James, skipped the assembly to gather signatures instead. Election officials haven’t verified whether James turned in the requisite 1,500 valid signatures ahead of the March 18 filing deadline, though the Colorado Sun writes that most candidates who submit signatures make the ballot.

There was considerably less suspense concerning the races for the state’s other seven congressional districts, or for the U.S. Senate or open governorship. All of the major Democratic candidates in each of those contests either successfully pursued the signature route or easily prevailed at the assembly.

Republicans will hold their statewide assembly on April 11.

FL-20

Following a public hearing on Thursday, a bipartisan panel of the House Ethics Committee found Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick guilty of 25 counts of misconduct, chief among them that she illegally funneled a $5 million overpayment in COVID-era funds from the state of Florida to her successful campaign for Congress in a 2022 special election.

The eight-member subcommittee announced its findings on Friday, adding that “the full Committee will hold a hearing to determine what, if any, sanction would be appropriate for the Committee to recommend” after the House returns from its recess on April 14. Cherfilus-McCormick could potentially be expelled, which would require a two-thirds vote.

In November, federal prosecutors indicted Cherfilus-McCormick on charges that she stole the COVID funds at the center of the House’s inquiry. She also faces multiple primary challengers in South Florida’s safely blue 20th District.

NY-21

Dylan Hewitt, who worked as a trade official during the Biden administration, announced Friday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for New York’s 21st Congressional District. Hewitt’s departure leaves dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as the only notable Democrat running to replace Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is not seeking reelection.

Donald Trump carried this constituency, which is based in the North Country and includes part of the Albany area, by a wide 60-39 spread. Democrats, though, hope that the nationwide backlash to Trump, as well as Gendebien’s strong fundraising and Republican infighting, will give them an opening.

PA-03

Democratic state Rep. Morgan Cephas, who failed to gain traction after trailing her rivals in fundraising, dropped her bid for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd Congressional District on Friday.

Cephas did not endorse any of the other candidates running for the deep-blue Philadelphia-based seat held by retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, but several notable names are still running.

The chief contenders appear to be state Sen. Sharif Street, a well-connected fixture of city politics and a former chair of the state Democratic Party, and physician Ala Stanford, who has Evans’ backing.

Also running is state Rep. Chris Rabb, the most left-leaning candidate in the race, though he experienced a major setback recently after he revealed that his former treasurer stole an undisclosed sum from his campaign.

Attorneys General & Secretaries of State

MI-AG, MI-SoS

Candidates aligned with Michigan’s Republican establishment effectively won their party’s nomination for attorney general and secretary of state at a GOP convention over the weekend.

Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd prevailed 63-37 over attorney Kevin Kijewski, who represented one of the phony electors who sought to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. Lloyd is campaigning to replace Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel, who cannot seek a third term.

The roughly 2,100 delegates likewise favored Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini over businesswoman Monica Yatooma, who has been more than willing to entertain Donald Trump’s lies about his defeat, by a 55-25 margin in the race for secretary of state. Forlini is hoping to succeed term-limited incumbent Jocelyn Benson, who is the Democratic frontrunner for governor.

Lloyd and Forlini will learn the identity of their respective opponents on April 19, when Democrats hold their endorsement convention.

While Benson is competing in a traditional primary on Aug. 4, party delegates in Michigan choose their nominees for attorney general, secretary of state, the state Supreme Court, and statewide education and university boards.

Though nominees for these posts won’t officially be designated until both parties hold further conventions in August, the endorsement convention allows Democrats and Republicans to unofficially select their preferred candidates and give them a head start in the general election.

Poll Pile

• ME-Gov (D): Impact Research for Troy Jackson:

  • Nirav Shah: 31, Troy Jackson: 18, Shenna Bellows: 17, Hannah Pingree: 16, Angus King III: 9.

• NV-Gov: Noble Predictive Insights:

  • Joe Lombardo (R-inc): 39, Aaron Ford (D): 38.

• SC-Gov (R): co/efficient:

  • Pamela Evette: 19, Nancy Mace: 18, Alan Wilson: 15, Ralph Norman: 13, Rom Reddy: 5, Josh Kimbrell: 1, undecided: 30. (Mid-March: Mace: 22, Evette: 21, Wilson: 19.)

  • The prior poll was conducted before Reddy joined the race.

  • Co/efficient says this survey was “[N]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.