I was reading the Wikipedia article for the recent Italian judicial referendum, and the exit polls claim that only 16% of voters have a college degree, and that an astonishing 48% of voters haven't even graduated high school. That seems like an extremely low level of education for a developed, first-world country like Italy - it makes America look like a nation of Einsteins in comparison. Are Italians really that poorly educated?
I did some quick googling, which showed 80%+ high school, 30% college. Both stats are below the U.S., which is surprising. But give us a few years...we're rapidly racing to the bottom.
My vet graduated from vet school in Italy, and he indicated their required level of education is low (10 years), but college is more intense for professions and a lot of people go to trade schools. They have a high literacy rate. He also doesn't push end of life care that's not going to be effective, and he has Standard Poodles and Scottish Terriers which are my two breeds with several mutts mixed in.
Yeah, I think it's also that Europe generally has alternative postsecondary training and professional pathways outside the traditional higher education system.
The U.S. (and the Anglosphere as a whole) has a well above average number of degreed people, at least as that term is traditionally understood. The UK, Australia and Ireland are similar to the U.S. and Canada actually has more, though their definition of post secondary is somewhat more generous than the other four.
Germany is only like 33% as another example but has a very robust vocational post secondary apprenticeship and educational model. It’s the English speaking countries and to a somewhat lesser extent Scandinavia that are the big outliers on four year and graduate/postgrad degrees
Completion rates and graduation rates are not a reflection of graduate quality, or school quality. We've been coasting on "America has the best universities in the world" thing for decades now, and there are increasingly diminishing returns, and growing problems, and I don't think calling ourselves a nation of Einsteins is accurate, certainly not in a comparative context.
I.E, many new American graduates cannot complete basic tasks in a modern workplace, such as dealing with converting PDF files, or engaging in basic unguided problem solving, things college is supposed to prepare you for, to the extent that many employers are finding these "educated" students to be useless.
The university to career system is nothing like it was even 10 years ago, certainly not at the undergraduate level. As someone who was in a pre-PhD program post-covid at a modest state school I found the stipend and financial structure to be completely unworkable, and it is what turned me away for pursuing further.
Focusing on metrics such as what % of the population has finished our teach-to-the-test-since-birth, overstandardized, and utterly underfunded education system I don't think tells us whether we're really better of educationally than Italians. JD Vance went to Yale for pete's sake.
If we're a nation of geniuses and we put these clowns into office, the Italians, clearly half of them not finishing high-school, don't stand a prayer, and surely will have another Mussolini before long. /s
There is going to have to be a policy reckoning with the way college is done in this country. Accreditation, student loans, AI, all of it. Given the current economic situation, I'm not shocked candidates aren't rushing to take on yet another set of powerful institutions/financial interests.
This just highlights the growing inequality of Income Gap in the US as a whole. Which again highlights the American Business control of Taxation and Investment Strategy of Congress by The CEO Oligarchs and their Short Term Quarterly Profits mentality, not the long term investment in people that history has taught us, is How Great Nations are built and Maintained.
As a society, if it isn't already too late, we need to displace the thinking that Government should be run as a Business Model instead of a Society Builder. After all, if you look at the happiest combined with the wealthiest Countries today, they are the Democratic Socialist Countries in Europe, where poverty is non existing, and Millionaires are still thriving. We need to end the era of Trickle Down Economics in the Midterms and turn this Ship of State around.
"Poverty is nonexistent" is a great exaggeration, as is "democratic socialist". How many people reading know that medical insurance can be very expensive in Germany, for example? To be sure, it usually isn't for citizens, and needed medical care can't be denied by insurance companies, but health care is not free there. However, if you didn't exaggerate, I'd agree with you.
I believe most of the EU countries have some form of copay. French carry a private policy to cover what the government doesn't, but these private policies are cheap even compared with Medicare gap plans. Copays are also means tested.
I received medical care at a hospital in Brussels for a broken arm, and I never saw a bill. I arrived in Brussels with a broken arm from a piece of carry on luggage prior to leaving Dulles, but didn't figure out it was broken until underway. I have no idea how it was covered.
Is anyone else having an issue with the notifications from Substack? Any of the paid ones that I’m a part of do not give me notifications anymore. But all the other ones still do.
Somewhat reassuring that the GOP didn’t choose the two election deniers for Michigan AG and SoS. I’m sure the chosen candidates still have their issues but the further we can keep the 2020 conspiracy theorists away from any positions of power the better
We’re entering Bush territory in some polls as what was once Trump’s strongest issue: immigration approval, continues to converge closer to economic approval.
We're seeing a trend where he is deteriorating by double digits on all the traditional GOP strengths: immigration, national security, the border and crime, and the movement is noticeable across several polls, but he continues to have that 33-37% (essentially a third of America) permanently locked in in terms of general approval. How long can this trend continue? How much ground can he keep losing on specific issues while maintaining mid 30s approval? I don't understand how that works.
Presidents get into the 30's in approval when they start losing their own base; as Republicans started getting skeptical of the war in Iraq (among other controversies), George Bush slipped into a permanent downward spiral. With Iran, Epstein, and the bad economy (all of his MAGA strong points), the Trump cult is starting to marginally dwindle.. enough for him to go from the low 40's overall into the mid-to-high 30's.
goldwater got 39% during an economic boom time, in the wake of the killing of president kennedy, while promising to gut social security and was widely seen as a warmonger, 40% of this country stays forever crazy
I posit that there’s a lot of Trump supporters who see everything happening right now that have responded to it similarly to and who have responded in the past in the same way to Trump’s controversies by magically thinking it’s temporary that will change in a few months. They’ve been right more often than not. However, this locked in section of the electorate starts to break away the second that no longer is true.
They are disapproving on him currently for specific issues, but aren’t disapproving of him overall because they expect all these things they disapprove on to get better over time so they’ll get back to approving of him again on these same issues and overall. Look at any right winger/MAGA argument currently and it boils down to “It’s temporary, be patient, don’t panic, it’ll all work out, trust Trump”. Gas prices, war in Iran, deportations etc.
See the recent polling example on support for war in Iran depending on how long it goes for:
- Support for Iran strikes “mild disapproval -5/-10”
- Support for Iran war for weeks “strong disapproval -15”
- Support for Iran war for months “very strong disapproval -25/-30”
- Support for Iran war for 1 yr+ “overwhelming disapproval -40/-50”
- Support for ground troops in Iran war “between very strong and overwhelming disapproval -30/-50”
So if this is still the case in the fall those issue specific disapproval voters will be much closer in number to actual disapproval voters because things didn’t actually get better like they thought they would. These voters are holding their breath and sucking on copious amounts of copium right now hoping that everything gets fixed by November.
I recall the effort to get comprehensive immigration reform was initiated during Bush’s 2nd term.
However, the approval ratings in 2006 were going down primarily because of the Iraq War and the efforts to privatize Social Security. Bush Jr was also a lame duck POTUS and the national security image he had that propelled him to win re-election in 2004 faded quickly after his re-election.
From what I recall, Bush could not convince enough members of Congress from his own party to support immigration reform legislation, although he did try to convince them behind closed doors.
Yes, I remember that. And this was years before Marco Rubio was in the Gang of Eight to follow through with another comprehensive immigration reform measure only for nothing to happen in the end.
Quite honestly, if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress back in 2005-2006 immigration reform would likely have been easier to manage. 2005-2006 was also a much better time to be a traditional conservative Republican than today.
Now those are flashing red emergency lights numbers that spell doomsday. Look at the Iran invasion numbers. They're not just bad. They are below 30%. Moreover, Trump's overall approval quite closely mirrors that and is dangerously close to sinking below 30%. With any luck, his numbers will further collapse long before the elections. Numbers below 30% are W Bush territory, who at his lowest of 25% approval was only beaten out by Nixon and Truman.
It’s going to be good to no longer have this fake moderate MAGA voting rep in Congress after 2026. The one thing all Republicans can’t stand: Being held accountable for their actions. Disgusting.
I don't think it's tenuous. Lawler is a top target in the House race this year (I live in his district, I know) and when things like this happen, it can be a sign of vulnerability.
EDIT: Especially in Rockland County, which is a bit more conservative than the Westchester half I live in, and where Lawler is from and most likely has a base in.
If you refuse to accept the simple solution of ignoring posts you don’t like, you won’t be enjoying your time here very much. I’m not going to stop posting just because of what you want and because you don’t like it, sorry. Just like you seemingly refuse to stop commenting this exact same thing on posts that you dislike, ain’t freedom grand? Have a nice day 😊
I am actually kind of surprised Ann Wagner is running again lol. I do wonder if she feels like she's holding off getting a MAGA idiot from taking her seat, and maybe hoping they'll tamp down post-Trump.
That said, the changes to that district make it only somewhat more crazy (when the district lines take effect). St Charles County has a lot of nutters.
Yeah, I think she just really hates being in the House now and she's ofc openly stated she doesn't want more "crazy" constituents in the decennial redistricting round, esp after losing the Foreign Affairs chair under sexist Mike Johnson's steering committee and now looking at going back into the minority (after already being forced out of a glide path to the Senate by Josh Hawley back in 2018). And things like this (which, I can't find the clip but she was clearly so crushed to say it out loud when she said it during the roll call lmao):
Not sure why Dems haven’t put a bipartisan commission for congressional districts on the ballot in Missouri like they have for the legislature. Would likely guarantee us a SL and KC seat and a swing SL seat.
There was a nonpartisan system put it place in 2018. It was overturned by the voters the next election because of deceptive ballot language by state politicians.
Sounds like Democrats need to pass another ballot referendum in Missouri to remove the task of writing ballot language for referendums from elected officials.
The state Supreme Court could probably do a better job with it.
Just checked, and 63 NC House seats (out of 120) voted for Trump by less than 11% or for Harris.
Unfortunately, in the state Senate only 24 seats out of 50 did. There, we're definitely going to need to retake the NC Supreme Court and get better maps before we can win it.
If we get that kind of turnout in November that the special elections in TX and FL did (where Dems flipped R+12 seats), a surprise flip of both Houses isn't out of the question -- esp when LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker if the state Senate is at 25 R - 25 D. You had at least 8-12% of Republicans crossing over and independent/unaffiliated voters going overwhelmingly for Democrats.
And the once-powerful Phil Berger only won his state Senate seat by 54% in a presidential year -- and lost his primary by 23 votes. He blew a lot of money earmarked for vulnerable races just to keep his seat... and failed.
NC GOP are in disarray, but the local media hasn't gotten wind of it yet.
Agreed. I’m also still not convinced of a larger than 5 point victory for Cooper in the Senate race either. But even so, it can’t be as off an outlier as to show Democrats not leading in GCB legislature, or the Senate race. That hasn’t happened downballot in NC since 2018 I think? Hard to find any info on party vote by year for legislatures, so I’m entirely guessing here.
Side note: Would really be nice to start getting this legislative party vote by year data as a next step in election analysis. We already have some outlets issuing tv coverage for special elections and issuing election night results for municipal elections, so I’m hopeful that trend starts sooner rather than later. Would be an extremely useful tool to have.
Yeah, Cooper is getting the 50% he has been getting in almost every poll, they didn't seem to force undecideds (who will likely lean towards Whatley to some degree) to take a side. That said, I'm still guessing Cooper ends up no higher than 53%/54% -- he's well-liked, but NC is way more federally polarized than other similar southern states (GA, VA).
Yeah he routinely held a double digit lead in 2020 (sometimes approaching 20 points) and in the end won by just 52%-47%. I’m expecting a similar margin this time.
The outlier for this poll is nuts for sure. That would be a Stein/Spanberger level blowout and would almost certainly flip control of the gerrymandered GOP legislature in a D-leaning midterm.
Being basically dead even in rural areas is scary for Whatley. It feels like Rs have already just given up on this race. Also, pump those no-college and some college numbers, Roy!
Color me skeptical. The right wing org not just published its own and more recent poll of Cooper leading 7-8pt, but also this OLDER poll of a double digit lead.
NEW: The pro-Juliana Stratton super PAC waited until January to go up with ads.
The PAC's leader, Quentin Fulks, talks to us about how an anti-ICE posture, $25-an-hour min wage push and Pritzker's popularity fueled a well-timed surge by Election Day.
It's past noon in EST time, so it looks like my theory that Jim Clyburn would abruptly renege on his promise not to run again and clear the path for his daughter didn't happen.
On the plus side, the VRA hasn't been killed (yet, although I don't personally know if they'll kill it) so the promised gerrymander that would wipe out all non-GOP seats cannot go through unless they pull shit with the primaries.
true story, ms. nuzzi was in my freshman philosophy class at fordham university in fall 2012. Seemingly completely normal person. I subsequently transferred and did not think of her again until the rfk jr stuff blew up. and never forget she also dated keith olbermann
Tangentially related, I think we all need to somehow get our heads around the fact that every person we interact with in the real world is literally on their absolute best behaviour in social in person encounters. You never see a wife abuser punch the living daylights out of their wife in a public setting for everyone to see. No, they do it when they’re alone behind the eyes of the public.
We all hide the parts that may make us undesirable people in order for other people to like us. It’s why MAGA supporters say they don’t like either party and don’t do politics. Some people wear girdles who have gained weight, or put makeup on to hide skin blemishes, some people lie about how much they make, others refrain from saying slurs that come into their head.
All varying levels of hiding, but all nevertheless doing exactly that. Social desirability bias has had unintended negative side effects on society, where the truly crazy/evil people blend right in with any crowd because they seem “normal”, instead of actually getting weeded out of the population by being obviously undesirably crazy and toxic in front of other people.
This is why people are always “shocked” when someone they know does a terrible crime. We don’t actually truly know each other, even those we love and care about. We just have to assume what they’ve presented to us is who they actually are, because that’s our only choice instead of being alone.
Surgeon Adam Hamawy, who helped save the life of Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Iraq and more recently became an aid worker in the conflict we aren't allowed to discuss, has been endorsed by the Justice Democrats.
It appears that in addition to Hamawy, the Justice Dems also endorsed AOC's former chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti in CA-11 and State Rep. Chris Rabb in PA-03.
I know the Justice Dems did poorly in Illinois, but I personally am not writing them off yet until more primaries have happened. We don't know if their poor performance in IL was a fluke or not. Hence why I posted this.
Thoughts on Sue Altman? She was clearly a progressive in the 2024 NJ-07 race but I've seen some skepticism on left Bluesky towards her, as some feel she's an opportunist (I think. Don't remember exactly what was said).
One Trenton member of the legislature should replace another former Trenton member of the Legislature in the seat. That's why I hope Reynolds-Jackson wins.
i'm for altman just because national dems gave her no support to flip nj-7 in 24, and that was an eminently winnable race. any opponent of Norcross machine is a friend of mine
It appears Sticker Mule CEO and GOP candidate Anthony Constantino is using his campaign to promote his sticker business, which prompted an FEC complaint. Constantino responded to Politico saying this by calling one of their reporters a "dipshit" and "scumbag", and called him "the enemy of the people". He also leads an internal poll against Robert Smullen (his opponent) by 18 points, albeit with many undecided.
If this clown ends up being the nominee, might Blake Gendebien have a better shot? Constantino is clearly nuts.
Interesting article about a Dem runoff in this GOP-ified gerrymander. While Johnny Garcia, a centrist Bexar County Sherriff's Deputy, was the chosen pick of the national Dems, the progressive housing activist Maureen Galindo unexpectedly made the runoff on a tiny budget.
Whether or not Galindo can actually win either the runoff or a general, I don't know, but I figured it was worth posting.
It's so insider that states like MI and IN still have so many nominees chosen outright by state party conventions. I'm surprised this far into the century that they haven't been converted to standard primaries, or at least MN/CA/etc-style where they just represent an endorsement leading up to the primary.
The VA firehouse primaries are particularly ridiculous. I remember when James Walkinshaw won one and a lot of progressives (and really anyone who backed a non-Walkinshaw candidate) were very upset due to the party-run nature of the primary.
In NY, special election nominees are outright chosen by the party. I wish there'd be actual primaries like most other states, but NY is probably too corrupt for that.
As a Hoosier I'm inclined to agree, though I'm not sure a primary electorate would have booted sexual assaulter Curtis Hill as AG. On the other hand, the convention was happy to ratify election denier Diego Morales as SoS (but so would primary voters I'm sure).
Yeah, I'm not really sure how beneficially it changes the results. A "benevolent good" strong party backroom deal system would certainly not have produced Trump and candidates like Hill or Morales, but it also probably looks like what the DSCC looks like right now under Gillibrand and Schumer which is clearly out of touch. And some niche party conventions that just get taken over by extremists who support candidates outside the mainstream that get crushed by voters in a primary or general. And ofc voters at large are also prone to lowbar fearmongering and populism that lead to non-governing electeds. But it's at least odd that they still exist in this form for so many down-ballot but still statewide offices (but notably not top of the ticket offices like governor or senator, where people would notice).
The runoff for the Republican secretary of state primary is the only thing besides some state legislative races. It's a race between a conservative establishment candidate and a Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell backed candidate, no clue who is favored.
I was reading the Wikipedia article for the recent Italian judicial referendum, and the exit polls claim that only 16% of voters have a college degree, and that an astonishing 48% of voters haven't even graduated high school. That seems like an extremely low level of education for a developed, first-world country like Italy - it makes America look like a nation of Einsteins in comparison. Are Italians really that poorly educated?
I did some quick googling, which showed 80%+ high school, 30% college. Both stats are below the U.S., which is surprising. But give us a few years...we're rapidly racing to the bottom.
My vet graduated from vet school in Italy, and he indicated their required level of education is low (10 years), but college is more intense for professions and a lot of people go to trade schools. They have a high literacy rate. He also doesn't push end of life care that's not going to be effective, and he has Standard Poodles and Scottish Terriers which are my two breeds with several mutts mixed in.
Yeah, I think it's also that Europe generally has alternative postsecondary training and professional pathways outside the traditional higher education system.
That, too, especially in Germany and countries in its economic and sociocultural periphery
This is true in Great Britain too.
I was a Bremain dead ender, the UK is still Europe to me lol
I still am. Brexit was horrible at the time, it's still horrible now, and the UK should rejoin the EU ASAP.
The U.S. (and the Anglosphere as a whole) has a well above average number of degreed people, at least as that term is traditionally understood. The UK, Australia and Ireland are similar to the U.S. and Canada actually has more, though their definition of post secondary is somewhat more generous than the other four.
Germany is only like 33% as another example but has a very robust vocational post secondary apprenticeship and educational model. It’s the English speaking countries and to a somewhat lesser extent Scandinavia that are the big outliers on four year and graduate/postgrad degrees
Your comment struck a particular nerve.
Completion rates and graduation rates are not a reflection of graduate quality, or school quality. We've been coasting on "America has the best universities in the world" thing for decades now, and there are increasingly diminishing returns, and growing problems, and I don't think calling ourselves a nation of Einsteins is accurate, certainly not in a comparative context.
I.E, many new American graduates cannot complete basic tasks in a modern workplace, such as dealing with converting PDF files, or engaging in basic unguided problem solving, things college is supposed to prepare you for, to the extent that many employers are finding these "educated" students to be useless.
https://fortune.com/article/bosses-firing-gen-z-right-after-hiring-them-what-needs-to-change/
https://calibre.careers/editorial/insights/gen-z-hiring-challenges-xxv
https://www.forbes.com/sites/cherylrobinson/2025/04/15/many-college-degrees-are-now-useless-heres-whats-worth-your-money/
The university to career system is nothing like it was even 10 years ago, certainly not at the undergraduate level. As someone who was in a pre-PhD program post-covid at a modest state school I found the stipend and financial structure to be completely unworkable, and it is what turned me away for pursuing further.
Focusing on metrics such as what % of the population has finished our teach-to-the-test-since-birth, overstandardized, and utterly underfunded education system I don't think tells us whether we're really better of educationally than Italians. JD Vance went to Yale for pete's sake.
If we're a nation of geniuses and we put these clowns into office, the Italians, clearly half of them not finishing high-school, don't stand a prayer, and surely will have another Mussolini before long. /s
There is going to have to be a policy reckoning with the way college is done in this country. Accreditation, student loans, AI, all of it. Given the current economic situation, I'm not shocked candidates aren't rushing to take on yet another set of powerful institutions/financial interests.
This just highlights the growing inequality of Income Gap in the US as a whole. Which again highlights the American Business control of Taxation and Investment Strategy of Congress by The CEO Oligarchs and their Short Term Quarterly Profits mentality, not the long term investment in people that history has taught us, is How Great Nations are built and Maintained.
As a society, if it isn't already too late, we need to displace the thinking that Government should be run as a Business Model instead of a Society Builder. After all, if you look at the happiest combined with the wealthiest Countries today, they are the Democratic Socialist Countries in Europe, where poverty is non existing, and Millionaires are still thriving. We need to end the era of Trickle Down Economics in the Midterms and turn this Ship of State around.
"Poverty is nonexistent" is a great exaggeration, as is "democratic socialist". How many people reading know that medical insurance can be very expensive in Germany, for example? To be sure, it usually isn't for citizens, and needed medical care can't be denied by insurance companies, but health care is not free there. However, if you didn't exaggerate, I'd agree with you.
Aren't Germany and Switzerland outliers in Europe where customers have to pay out of pocket for health care?
Yes, I believe they are. They still have excellent social services in Germany, though, and I believe in Switzerland.
I believe most of the EU countries have some form of copay. French carry a private policy to cover what the government doesn't, but these private policies are cheap even compared with Medicare gap plans. Copays are also means tested.
I received medical care at a hospital in Brussels for a broken arm, and I never saw a bill. I arrived in Brussels with a broken arm from a piece of carry on luggage prior to leaving Dulles, but didn't figure out it was broken until underway. I have no idea how it was covered.
Italy is the 4th oldest population in the world and until the 1960's was still tracking students into work training at age 11.
!!!
Between 1961 and 1972 the percentage of Italian middle school students entering upper secondary school went from 18.5% to 43.1%.
MO-6: That 2008 ad of three people dancing continues to live rent-free in my head.
Is anyone else having an issue with the notifications from Substack? Any of the paid ones that I’m a part of do not give me notifications anymore. But all the other ones still do.
Somewhat reassuring that the GOP didn’t choose the two election deniers for Michigan AG and SoS. I’m sure the chosen candidates still have their issues but the further we can keep the 2020 conspiracy theorists away from any positions of power the better
Appears Michigan GOP is beginning to rebound from the Karami mess, where competing wings both claimed to control the state party/budget.
*Karamo
I swear my phone inserts typos, but it's probably really just my thumbs.
For an overview of Sam Graves's career as a Missouri congressman, see Jess Piper's recent Substack, The View from Rural Missouri
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQgLFffnDvflwlqCwgWWcnMxdfh
Jess Piper is fantastic. Very outspoken liberal not afraid to go deep into rural areas of Missouri where other Democrats wouldn't bother.
I met her in Edwardsville, IL several months ago, and she was fantastic at message delivery.
The correct link to Jess Piper's Substack post on Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO): https://jesspiper.substack.com/p/another-one
We’re entering Bush territory in some polls as what was once Trump’s strongest issue: immigration approval, continues to converge closer to economic approval.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2038608690324922511
🇺🇸 National Poll by UMass/Amherst
Pres. Trump
Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 62%
Trump's lowest approval in either term
——
Trump's net approval on key issues
🟤 Immigration: -25
🔴 Jobs: -31
🔴 Tariffs: -36
🔴 Inflation: -47
——
U.S. Military action against Iran
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 54%
YouGov | 3/20-25 | 1,000 A
https://umass.edu/news/article/president-trumps-approval-sinks-33-new-umass-poll
We're seeing a trend where he is deteriorating by double digits on all the traditional GOP strengths: immigration, national security, the border and crime, and the movement is noticeable across several polls, but he continues to have that 33-37% (essentially a third of America) permanently locked in in terms of general approval. How long can this trend continue? How much ground can he keep losing on specific issues while maintaining mid 30s approval? I don't understand how that works.
Presidents get into the 30's in approval when they start losing their own base; as Republicans started getting skeptical of the war in Iraq (among other controversies), George Bush slipped into a permanent downward spiral. With Iran, Epstein, and the bad economy (all of his MAGA strong points), the Trump cult is starting to marginally dwindle.. enough for him to go from the low 40's overall into the mid-to-high 30's.
goldwater got 39% during an economic boom time, in the wake of the killing of president kennedy, while promising to gut social security and was widely seen as a warmonger, 40% of this country stays forever crazy
And racist, which may have been more the point for most of those who voted for Goldwater.
I posit that there’s a lot of Trump supporters who see everything happening right now that have responded to it similarly to and who have responded in the past in the same way to Trump’s controversies by magically thinking it’s temporary that will change in a few months. They’ve been right more often than not. However, this locked in section of the electorate starts to break away the second that no longer is true.
They are disapproving on him currently for specific issues, but aren’t disapproving of him overall because they expect all these things they disapprove on to get better over time so they’ll get back to approving of him again on these same issues and overall. Look at any right winger/MAGA argument currently and it boils down to “It’s temporary, be patient, don’t panic, it’ll all work out, trust Trump”. Gas prices, war in Iran, deportations etc.
See the recent polling example on support for war in Iran depending on how long it goes for:
- Support for Iran strikes “mild disapproval -5/-10”
- Support for Iran war for weeks “strong disapproval -15”
- Support for Iran war for months “very strong disapproval -25/-30”
- Support for Iran war for 1 yr+ “overwhelming disapproval -40/-50”
- Support for ground troops in Iran war “between very strong and overwhelming disapproval -30/-50”
So if this is still the case in the fall those issue specific disapproval voters will be much closer in number to actual disapproval voters because things didn’t actually get better like they thought they would. These voters are holding their breath and sucking on copious amounts of copium right now hoping that everything gets fixed by November.
Makes perfect sense. Thanks for your detailed response!
I recall the effort to get comprehensive immigration reform was initiated during Bush’s 2nd term.
However, the approval ratings in 2006 were going down primarily because of the Iraq War and the efforts to privatize Social Security. Bush Jr was also a lame duck POTUS and the national security image he had that propelled him to win re-election in 2004 faded quickly after his re-election.
From what I recall, Bush could not convince enough members of Congress from his own party to support immigration reform legislation, although he did try to convince them behind closed doors.
Yes, I remember that. And this was years before Marco Rubio was in the Gang of Eight to follow through with another comprehensive immigration reform measure only for nothing to happen in the end.
Quite honestly, if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress back in 2005-2006 immigration reform would likely have been easier to manage. 2005-2006 was also a much better time to be a traditional conservative Republican than today.
Now those are flashing red emergency lights numbers that spell doomsday. Look at the Iran invasion numbers. They're not just bad. They are below 30%. Moreover, Trump's overall approval quite closely mirrors that and is dangerously close to sinking below 30%. With any luck, his numbers will further collapse long before the elections. Numbers below 30% are W Bush territory, who at his lowest of 25% approval was only beaten out by Nixon and Truman.
i hope i am wrong, but w never had the cult of personality that trump does, hence trump's numbers will never be in the 20's
It’s going to be good to no longer have this fake moderate MAGA voting rep in Congress after 2026. The one thing all Republicans can’t stand: Being held accountable for their actions. Disgusting.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2038461526550499831
🚨Republican Congressman Mike Lawler held a town hall in Rockland County, New York.
Veterans stood up and told him exactly what they thought of him and Trump.
Lawler had them removed. That made it worse. The crowd turned on him. He had to leave.
These are not protesters. These are veterans. People who served. Who buried friends. Who know what war costs because they paid it personally.
They looked a Republican congressman in the eye and said what they thought.
He called security.
Please. You don't have to copy and paste someone else's full tweet. Especially if it has a tenuous connection to analysis of a downballot race.
I don't think it's tenuous. Lawler is a top target in the House race this year (I live in his district, I know) and when things like this happen, it can be a sign of vulnerability.
EDIT: Especially in Rockland County, which is a bit more conservative than the Westchester half I live in, and where Lawler is from and most likely has a base in.
I like what dragonfire5004 posts, I would never be on X myself so this is helpful and is germane to discussing downballot races.
If you refuse to accept the simple solution of ignoring posts you don’t like, you won’t be enjoying your time here very much. I’m not going to stop posting just because of what you want and because you don’t like it, sorry. Just like you seemingly refuse to stop commenting this exact same thing on posts that you dislike, ain’t freedom grand? Have a nice day 😊
I actually prefer people copy tweet texts so we don't have to give the site formerly known as Twitter any additional clicks.
Mike Lawler was DOA for re-election before this and he doesn’t seem to understand this.
Maybe he can work on establishing a Michael Jackson museum in NY so he as a longtime fan can learn the hard way that no one gives a shit.
I am actually kind of surprised Ann Wagner is running again lol. I do wonder if she feels like she's holding off getting a MAGA idiot from taking her seat, and maybe hoping they'll tamp down post-Trump.
She is likely going to have a pretty easy race.
That said, the changes to that district make it only somewhat more crazy (when the district lines take effect). St Charles County has a lot of nutters.
Yeah, I think she just really hates being in the House now and she's ofc openly stated she doesn't want more "crazy" constituents in the decennial redistricting round, esp after losing the Foreign Affairs chair under sexist Mike Johnson's steering committee and now looking at going back into the minority (after already being forced out of a glide path to the Senate by Josh Hawley back in 2018). And things like this (which, I can't find the clip but she was clearly so crushed to say it out loud when she said it during the roll call lmao):
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1713942841381032006
2020 was the time to take her out
Not sure why Dems haven’t put a bipartisan commission for congressional districts on the ballot in Missouri like they have for the legislature. Would likely guarantee us a SL and KC seat and a swing SL seat.
There was a nonpartisan system put it place in 2018. It was overturned by the voters the next election because of deceptive ballot language by state politicians.
Sounds like Democrats need to pass another ballot referendum in Missouri to remove the task of writing ballot language for referendums from elected officials.
The state Supreme Court could probably do a better job with it.
New poll: D+11 GCB in NC legislature lol.
MPC: Would this margin flip the State House in your own backyard?
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2038622867911295469
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2038628119423209955
NORTH CAROLINA POLL - Senate
🟦 Roy Cooper: 50%
🟥 Michael Whatley: 32%
🟨 Shannon Bray: 4%
——
Generic Ballot (legislative)
🟦 DEM: 49%
🟥 GOP: 38%
——
NC SENATE (crosstabs)
🟦 Cooper: 50% (+18)
🟥 Whatley. 32%
🟨 Bray: 4%
——
🔴 GOP: Whatley +60
🔵 Dem: Cooper +84
🔵 Indie: Cooper +24
---
🔵 White: Cooper +7
🔵 Black: Cooper +69
🔵 Other: Cooper +20
---
🔴 Rural: Whatley +1
🔵 Suburban: Cooper +26
🔵 Urban: Cooper +35
---
🔴 No college: Whatley +18
🔴 Some college: Whatley +3
🔵 4 year grad: Cooper +24
🔵 Postgrad: Cooper +54
🔵 Male: Cooper +13
🔵 Female: Cooper +22
• Nexus Strategies for Healthier United
• 3/8-9 | 800 RV
https://carolinajournal.com/poll-cooper-holds-wide-early-lead-over-whatley-in-nc-senate-race/
Just checked, and 63 NC House seats (out of 120) voted for Trump by less than 11% or for Harris.
Unfortunately, in the state Senate only 24 seats out of 50 did. There, we're definitely going to need to retake the NC Supreme Court and get better maps before we can win it.
If we get that kind of turnout in November that the special elections in TX and FL did (where Dems flipped R+12 seats), a surprise flip of both Houses isn't out of the question -- esp when LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker if the state Senate is at 25 R - 25 D. You had at least 8-12% of Republicans crossing over and independent/unaffiliated voters going overwhelmingly for Democrats.
And the once-powerful Phil Berger only won his state Senate seat by 54% in a presidential year -- and lost his primary by 23 votes. He blew a lot of money earmarked for vulnerable races just to keep his seat... and failed.
NC GOP are in disarray, but the local media hasn't gotten wind of it yet.
I think this is a solid year for Ds in NC but this sample is screaming huge outlier.
Agreed. I’m also still not convinced of a larger than 5 point victory for Cooper in the Senate race either. But even so, it can’t be as off an outlier as to show Democrats not leading in GCB legislature, or the Senate race. That hasn’t happened downballot in NC since 2018 I think? Hard to find any info on party vote by year for legislatures, so I’m entirely guessing here.
Side note: Would really be nice to start getting this legislative party vote by year data as a next step in election analysis. We already have some outlets issuing tv coverage for special elections and issuing election night results for municipal elections, so I’m hopeful that trend starts sooner rather than later. Would be an extremely useful tool to have.
It's likely undecideds are pretty R leaning and they weren't pushed in this poll. That being said, Cooper being at 50% is what is important here.
Yeah, Cooper is getting the 50% he has been getting in almost every poll, they didn't seem to force undecideds (who will likely lean towards Whatley to some degree) to take a side. That said, I'm still guessing Cooper ends up no higher than 53%/54% -- he's well-liked, but NC is way more federally polarized than other similar southern states (GA, VA).
Yeah he routinely held a double digit lead in 2020 (sometimes approaching 20 points) and in the end won by just 52%-47%. I’m expecting a similar margin this time.
The outlier for this poll is nuts for sure. That would be a Stein/Spanberger level blowout and would almost certainly flip control of the gerrymandered GOP legislature in a D-leaning midterm.
Being basically dead even in rural areas is scary for Whatley. It feels like Rs have already just given up on this race. Also, pump those no-college and some college numbers, Roy!
Color me skeptical. The right wing org not just published its own and more recent poll of Cooper leading 7-8pt, but also this OLDER poll of a double digit lead.
How Juliana Stratton backloaded her ad campaign strategy and won in the Illinois Democratic primary for Senate:
https://x.com/natashakorecki/status/2038342968952717742
NEW: The pro-Juliana Stratton super PAC waited until January to go up with ads.
The PAC's leader, Quentin Fulks, talks to us about how an anti-ICE posture, $25-an-hour min wage push and Pritzker's popularity fueled a well-timed surge by Election Day.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democratic-senate-candidate-juliana-stratton-victory-illinois-senate-rcna265518
Blast from the past.
https://x.com/MaryCaitlinByrd/status/2038624279885984255
NEW: Mark Sanford is back, and he's running for his old Congressional seat.
This AM, Sanford filed to run for #SC01. He is again sounding the alarm on the national debt, saying it's time for him to "get off the bleachers."
https://postandcourier.com/politics/mark-sanford-sc-congress-republican/article_7b1c70f5-8320-4dbe-8ef7-dfe2a28043aa.html #SC01 #scpol #scnews #chsnews
Filing deadline is today at noon.
It's past noon in EST time, so it looks like my theory that Jim Clyburn would abruptly renege on his promise not to run again and clear the path for his daughter didn't happen.
On the plus side, the VRA hasn't been killed (yet, although I don't personally know if they'll kill it) so the promised gerrymander that would wipe out all non-GOP seats cannot go through unless they pull shit with the primaries.
Maybe Elizabeth Colbert-Busch will run too and it'll be a reunion!
Personally I’m waiting for Eugene Platt’s comeback tour.
Desperately need Olivia Nuzzi on the campaign trail.
we desperately don't. :)
Off the bleachers and onto the hiking, ehrm, i mean, campaign trail, right Mr. Sanford?
Don't forget she had a thing with RFK Jr. too!
true story, ms. nuzzi was in my freshman philosophy class at fordham university in fall 2012. Seemingly completely normal person. I subsequently transferred and did not think of her again until the rfk jr stuff blew up. and never forget she also dated keith olbermann
omg.
Tangentially related, I think we all need to somehow get our heads around the fact that every person we interact with in the real world is literally on their absolute best behaviour in social in person encounters. You never see a wife abuser punch the living daylights out of their wife in a public setting for everyone to see. No, they do it when they’re alone behind the eyes of the public.
We all hide the parts that may make us undesirable people in order for other people to like us. It’s why MAGA supporters say they don’t like either party and don’t do politics. Some people wear girdles who have gained weight, or put makeup on to hide skin blemishes, some people lie about how much they make, others refrain from saying slurs that come into their head.
All varying levels of hiding, but all nevertheless doing exactly that. Social desirability bias has had unintended negative side effects on society, where the truly crazy/evil people blend right in with any crowd because they seem “normal”, instead of actually getting weeded out of the population by being obviously undesirably crazy and toxic in front of other people.
This is why people are always “shocked” when someone they know does a terrible crime. We don’t actually truly know each other, even those we love and care about. We just have to assume what they’ve presented to us is who they actually are, because that’s our only choice instead of being alone.
Really insightful and eloquent post.
The stories Olbermann tells about her and RFK jr. on his podcast are really something
As crazy as it sounds, I’d rather have Mark Sanford representing SC-01 again than Nancy Mace if any Republican were to replace her.
But I’d obviously want a Democrat to win SC-01.
NJ-12:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/justice-democrats-add-hamawy-to-2026-slate/
Surgeon Adam Hamawy, who helped save the life of Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Iraq and more recently became an aid worker in the conflict we aren't allowed to discuss, has been endorsed by the Justice Democrats.
https://justicedemocrats.com/candidates/
It appears that in addition to Hamawy, the Justice Dems also endorsed AOC's former chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti in CA-11 and State Rep. Chris Rabb in PA-03.
I know the Justice Dems did poorly in Illinois, but I personally am not writing them off yet until more primaries have happened. We don't know if their poor performance in IL was a fluke or not. Hence why I posted this.
Hamawy and Reynolds-Jackson appear to be the progressives. Cohen, Mapp and probably Vaingankar are the moderates.
That's the impression I got.
Thoughts on Sue Altman? She was clearly a progressive in the 2024 NJ-07 race but I've seen some skepticism on left Bluesky towards her, as some feel she's an opportunist (I think. Don't remember exactly what was said).
One Trenton member of the legislature should replace another former Trenton member of the Legislature in the seat. That's why I hope Reynolds-Jackson wins.
I really like Hamawy myself, but I tend to favor very progressive candidates in deep-blue seats like this. I am a (borderline) socialist after all.
Agreed.
i'm for altman just because national dems gave her no support to flip nj-7 in 24, and that was an eminently winnable race. any opponent of Norcross machine is a friend of mine
NY-21:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/newyorkplaybook
It appears Sticker Mule CEO and GOP candidate Anthony Constantino is using his campaign to promote his sticker business, which prompted an FEC complaint. Constantino responded to Politico saying this by calling one of their reporters a "dipshit" and "scumbag", and called him "the enemy of the people". He also leads an internal poll against Robert Smullen (his opponent) by 18 points, albeit with many undecided.
If this clown ends up being the nominee, might Blake Gendebien have a better shot? Constantino is clearly nuts.
Sounds like the perfect Trump candidate.
TX-35:
https://sanantonioreport.org/housing-activist-maureen-galindo-tx35-congressional-candidate-runoff/
Interesting article about a Dem runoff in this GOP-ified gerrymander. While Johnny Garcia, a centrist Bexar County Sherriff's Deputy, was the chosen pick of the national Dems, the progressive housing activist Maureen Galindo unexpectedly made the runoff on a tiny budget.
Whether or not Galindo can actually win either the runoff or a general, I don't know, but I figured it was worth posting.
It's so insider that states like MI and IN still have so many nominees chosen outright by state party conventions. I'm surprised this far into the century that they haven't been converted to standard primaries, or at least MN/CA/etc-style where they just represent an endorsement leading up to the primary.
The VA firehouse primaries are particularly ridiculous. I remember when James Walkinshaw won one and a lot of progressives (and really anyone who backed a non-Walkinshaw candidate) were very upset due to the party-run nature of the primary.
In NY, special election nominees are outright chosen by the party. I wish there'd be actual primaries like most other states, but NY is probably too corrupt for that.
As a Hoosier I'm inclined to agree, though I'm not sure a primary electorate would have booted sexual assaulter Curtis Hill as AG. On the other hand, the convention was happy to ratify election denier Diego Morales as SoS (but so would primary voters I'm sure).
Yeah, I'm not really sure how beneficially it changes the results. A "benevolent good" strong party backroom deal system would certainly not have produced Trump and candidates like Hill or Morales, but it also probably looks like what the DSCC looks like right now under Gillibrand and Schumer which is clearly out of touch. And some niche party conventions that just get taken over by extremists who support candidates outside the mainstream that get crushed by voters in a primary or general. And ofc voters at large are also prone to lowbar fearmongering and populism that lead to non-governing electeds. But it's at least odd that they still exist in this form for so many down-ballot but still statewide offices (but notably not top of the ticket offices like governor or senator, where people would notice).
Is there anything interesting in the Arkansas runoffs happening tomorrow?
The runoff for the Republican secretary of state primary is the only thing besides some state legislative races. It's a race between a conservative establishment candidate and a Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell backed candidate, no clue who is favored.