Even if Trump were to declare victory/concede defeat today, and stopped all military action in the middle east, gas prices would remain like this for the rest of the year and beyond. And that's if we stopped today. We are not stopping anything, anytime soon. United Airlines is positioning for $175/barrel oil, and oil above $100/b through 2027. that's a year and a half of this....The economic cake is baked. $175/barrel oil is $6/gal gas. Serious damage that will take months to years to repair has been done to large parts of middle eastern energy infrastructure.
[[ In a letter to employees, United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.” ]]
I think gas price will be the thing that turns the voters from your 3rd point that haven't broken in a decade against trump, to break against him and the Rs, or at least sit out. That's because trump has done a great job insulating a lot of voters from the costs of a lot of his decisions for the last 6 years of him in office, but that's starting to fade. Gas price and equities being near all time highs (resulting in nice wealth appreciation for the upper 40% with accounts/assets) is what has given him a some breathing room. Any persistent downturn on either of these, many potential voters will be angered beyond salvaging.
My state house rep, an R, has a D opponent for the 1st time ever (10 yrs). He's never had a primary opponent either. 15 yr ago, a Dem held the seat.
The neighboring county commission seat also has a D running for the 1st time in eons. Unlike the state house seat, there have been primary races at the county level.
As a poll clerk, it'll be fun to have a busier election day than we've had recently.
The runoff for the Republican secretary of state primary is the only thing besides some state legislative races. It's a race between a conservative establishment candidate and a Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell backed candidate, no clue who is favored.
The VA firehouse primaries are particularly ridiculous. I remember when James Walkinshaw won one and a lot of progressives (and really anyone who backed a non-Walkinshaw candidate) were very upset due to the party-run nature of the primary.
In NY, special election nominees are outright chosen by the party. I wish there'd be actual primaries like most other states, but NY is probably too corrupt for that.
As a Hoosier I'm inclined to agree, though I'm not sure a primary electorate would have booted sexual assaulter Curtis Hill as AG. On the other hand, the convention was happy to ratify election denier Diego Morales as SoS (but so would primary voters I'm sure).
true story, ms. nuzzi was in my freshman philosophy class at fordham university in fall 2012. Seemingly completely normal person. I subsequently transferred and did not think of her again until the rfk jr stuff blew up. and never forget she also dated keith olbermann
It's past noon in EST time, so it looks like my theory that Jim Clyburn would abruptly renege on his promise not to run again and clear the path for his daughter didn't happen.
On the plus side, the VRA hasn't been killed (yet, although I don't personally know if they'll kill it) so the promised gerrymander that would wipe out all non-GOP seats cannot go through unless they pull shit with the primaries.
If we get that kind of turnout in November that the special elections in TX and FL did (where Dems flipped R+12 seats), a surprise flip of both Houses isn't out of the question -- esp when LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker if the state Senate is at 25 R - 25 D. You had at least 8-12% of Republicans crossing over and independent/unaffiliated voters going overwhelmingly for Democrats.
And the once-powerful Phil Berger only won his state Senate seat by 54% in a presidential year -- and lost his primary by 23 votes. He blew a lot of money earmarked for vulnerable races just to keep his seat... and failed.
NC GOP are in disarray, but the local media hasn't gotten wind of it yet.
Yeah, Cooper is getting the 50% he has been getting in almost every poll, they didn't seem to force undecideds (who will likely lean towards Whatley to some degree) to take a side. That said, I'm still guessing Cooper ends up no higher than 53%/54% -- he's well-liked, but NC is way more federally polarized than other similar southern states (GA, VA).
Yeah he routinely held a double digit lead in 2020 (sometimes approaching 20 points) and in the end won by just 52%-47%. I’m expecting a similar margin this time.
The outlier for this poll is nuts for sure. That would be a Stein/Spanberger level blowout and would almost certainly flip control of the gerrymandered GOP legislature in a D-leaning midterm.
Being basically dead even in rural areas is scary for Whatley. It feels like Rs have already just given up on this race. Also, pump those no-college and some college numbers, Roy!
Color me skeptical. The right wing org not just published its own and more recent poll of Cooper leading 7-8pt, but also this OLDER poll of a double digit lead.
That said, the changes to that district make it only somewhat more crazy (when the district lines take effect). St Charles County has a lot of nutters.
Not sure why Dems haven’t put a bipartisan commission for congressional districts on the ballot in Missouri like they have for the legislature. Would likely guarantee us a SL and KC seat and a swing SL seat.
There was a nonpartisan system put it place in 2018. It was overturned by the voters the next election because of deceptive ballot language by state politicians.
I don't think it's tenuous. Lawler is a top target in the House race this year (I live in his district, I know) and when things like this happen, it can be a sign of vulnerability.
EDIT: Especially in Rockland County, which is a bit more conservative than the Westchester half I live in, and where Lawler is from and most likely has a base in.
We're seeing a trend where he is deteriorating by double digits on all the traditional GOP strengths: immigration, national security, the border and crime, and the movement is noticeable across several polls, but he continues to have that 33-37% (essentially a third of America) permanently locked in in terms of general approval. How long can this trend continue? How much ground can he keep losing on specific issues while maintaining mid 30s approval? I don't understand how that works.
Presidents get into the 30's in approval when they start losing their own base; as Republicans started getting skeptical of the war in Iraq (among other controversies), George Bush slipped into a permanent downward spiral. With Iran, Epstein, and the bad economy (all of his MAGA strong points), the Trump cult is starting to marginally dwindle.. enough for him to go from the low 40's overall into the mid-to-high 30's.
goldwater got 39% during an economic boom time, in the wake of the killing of president kennedy, while promising to gut social security and was widely seen as a warmonger, 40% of this country stays forever crazy
I recall the effort to get comprehensive immigration reform was initiated during Bush’s 2nd term.
However, the approval ratings in 2006 were going down primarily because of the Iraq War and the efforts to privatize Social Security. Bush Jr was also a lame duck POTUS and the national security image he had that propelled him to win re-election in 2004 faded quickly after his re-election.
From what I recall, Bush could not convince enough members of Congress from his own party to support immigration reform legislation, although he did try to convince them behind closed doors.
Yes, I remember that. And this was years before Marco Rubio was in the Gang of Eight to follow through with another comprehensive immigration reform measure only for nothing to happen in the end.
Quite honestly, if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress back in 2005-2006 immigration reform would likely have been easier to manage. 2005-2006 was also a much better time to be a traditional conservative Republican than today.
Now those are flashing red emergency lights numbers that spell doomsday. Look at the Iran invasion numbers. They're not just bad. They are below 30%. Moreover, Trump's overall approval quite closely mirrors that and is dangerously close to sinking below 30%. With any luck, his numbers will further collapse long before the elections. Numbers below 30% are W Bush territory, who at his lowest of 25% approval was only beaten out by Nixon and Truman.
I did some quick googling, which showed 80%+ high school, 30% college. Both stats are below the U.S., which is surprising. But give us a few years...we're rapidly racing to the bottom.
The U.S. (and the Anglosphere as a whole) has a well above average number of degreed people, at least as that term is traditionally understood. The UK, Australia and Ireland are similar to the U.S. and Canada actually has more, though their definition of post secondary is somewhat more generous than the other four.
Germany is only like 33% as another example but has a very robust vocational post secondary apprenticeship and educational model. It’s the English speaking countries and to a somewhat lesser extent Scandinavia that are the big outliers on four year and graduate/postgrad degrees
Completion rates and graduation rates are not a reflection of graduate quality, or school quality. We've been coasting on "America has the best universities in the world" thing for decades now, and there are increasingly diminishing returns, and growing problems, and I don't think calling ourselves a nation of Einsteins is accurate, certainly not in a comparative context.
I.E, many new American graduates cannot complete basic tasks in a modern workplace, such as dealing with converting PDF files, or engaging in basic unguided problem solving, things college is supposed to prepare you for, to the extent that many employers are finding these "educated" students to be useless.
The university to career system is nothing like it was even 10 years ago, certainly not at the undergraduate level. As someone who was in a pre-PhD program post-covid at a modest state school I found the stipend and financial structure to be completely unworkable, and it is what turned me away for pursuing further.
Focusing on metrics such as what % of the population has finished our teach-to-the-test-since-birth, overstandardized, and utterly underfunded education system I don't think tells us whether we're really better of educationally than Italians. JD Vance went to Yale for pete's sake.
If we're a nation of geniuses and we put these clowns into office, the Italians, clearly half of them not finishing high-school, don't stand a prayer, and surely will have another Mussolini before long. /s
There is going to have to be a policy reckoning with the way college is done in this country. Accreditation, student loans, AI, all of it. Given the current economic situation, I'm not shocked candidates aren't rushing to take on yet another set of powerful institutions/financial interests.
This just highlights the growing inequality of Income Gap in the US as a whole. Which again highlights the American Business control of Taxation and Investment Strategy of Congress by The CEO Oligarchs and their Short Term Quarterly Profits mentality, not the long term investment in people that history has taught us, is How Great Nations are built and Maintained.
As a society, if it isn't already too late, we need to displace the thinking that Government should be run as a Business Model instead of a Society Builder. After all, if you look at the happiest combined with the wealthiest Countries today, they are the Democratic Socialist Countries in Europe, where poverty is non existing, and Millionaires are still thriving. We need to end the era of Trickle Down Economics in the Midterms and turn this Ship of State around.
"Poverty is nonexistent" is a great exaggeration, as is "democratic socialist". How many people reading know that medical insurance can be very expensive in Germany, for example? To be sure, it usually isn't for citizens, and needed medical care can't be denied by insurance companies, but health care is not free there. However, if you didn't exaggerate, I'd agree with you.
Is anyone else having an issue with the notifications from Substack? Any of the paid ones that I’m a part of do not give me notifications anymore. But all the other ones still do.
Somewhat reassuring that the GOP didn’t choose the two election deniers for Michigan AG and SoS. I’m sure the chosen candidates still have their issues but the further we can keep the 2020 conspiracy theorists away from any positions of power the better
He recently ran for a local position in the town but lost by a large margin IIRC.
What's their basis for this argument?
I suppose the third column is undecided?
If nothing else it demonstrates where the energy is. And you can’t win where you don’t compete
South Carolina. Holy shit. Dems are on fire this year.
Even if Trump were to declare victory/concede defeat today, and stopped all military action in the middle east, gas prices would remain like this for the rest of the year and beyond. And that's if we stopped today. We are not stopping anything, anytime soon. United Airlines is positioning for $175/barrel oil, and oil above $100/b through 2027. that's a year and a half of this....The economic cake is baked. $175/barrel oil is $6/gal gas. Serious damage that will take months to years to repair has been done to large parts of middle eastern energy infrastructure.
https://x.com/kpottermn/status/2035130879387808130
[[ In a letter to employees, United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.” ]]
I think gas price will be the thing that turns the voters from your 3rd point that haven't broken in a decade against trump, to break against him and the Rs, or at least sit out. That's because trump has done a great job insulating a lot of voters from the costs of a lot of his decisions for the last 6 years of him in office, but that's starting to fade. Gas price and equities being near all time highs (resulting in nice wealth appreciation for the upper 40% with accounts/assets) is what has given him a some breathing room. Any persistent downturn on either of these, many potential voters will be angered beyond salvaging.
agreed. Until the data tells us, its just speculating on trends.
My state house rep, an R, has a D opponent for the 1st time ever (10 yrs). He's never had a primary opponent either. 15 yr ago, a Dem held the seat.
The neighboring county commission seat also has a D running for the 1st time in eons. Unlike the state house seat, there have been primary races at the county level.
As a poll clerk, it'll be fun to have a busier election day than we've had recently.
The runoff for the Republican secretary of state primary is the only thing besides some state legislative races. It's a race between a conservative establishment candidate and a Michael Flynn and Mike Lindell backed candidate, no clue who is favored.
The VA firehouse primaries are particularly ridiculous. I remember when James Walkinshaw won one and a lot of progressives (and really anyone who backed a non-Walkinshaw candidate) were very upset due to the party-run nature of the primary.
In NY, special election nominees are outright chosen by the party. I wish there'd be actual primaries like most other states, but NY is probably too corrupt for that.
As a Hoosier I'm inclined to agree, though I'm not sure a primary electorate would have booted sexual assaulter Curtis Hill as AG. On the other hand, the convention was happy to ratify election denier Diego Morales as SoS (but so would primary voters I'm sure).
we desperately don't. :)
Off the bleachers and onto the hiking, ehrm, i mean, campaign trail, right Mr. Sanford?
Don't forget she had a thing with RFK Jr. too!
true story, ms. nuzzi was in my freshman philosophy class at fordham university in fall 2012. Seemingly completely normal person. I subsequently transferred and did not think of her again until the rfk jr stuff blew up. and never forget she also dated keith olbermann
Really insightful and eloquent post.
The stories Olbermann tells about her and RFK jr. on his podcast are really something
Filing deadline is today at noon.
It's past noon in EST time, so it looks like my theory that Jim Clyburn would abruptly renege on his promise not to run again and clear the path for his daughter didn't happen.
On the plus side, the VRA hasn't been killed (yet, although I don't personally know if they'll kill it) so the promised gerrymander that would wipe out all non-GOP seats cannot go through unless they pull shit with the primaries.
Maybe Elizabeth Colbert-Busch will run too and it'll be a reunion!
As crazy as it sounds, I’d rather have Mark Sanford representing SC-01 again than Nancy Mace if any Republican were to replace her.
But I’d obviously want a Democrat to win SC-01.
If we get that kind of turnout in November that the special elections in TX and FL did (where Dems flipped R+12 seats), a surprise flip of both Houses isn't out of the question -- esp when LG Rachel Hunt can be a tiebreaker if the state Senate is at 25 R - 25 D. You had at least 8-12% of Republicans crossing over and independent/unaffiliated voters going overwhelmingly for Democrats.
And the once-powerful Phil Berger only won his state Senate seat by 54% in a presidential year -- and lost his primary by 23 votes. He blew a lot of money earmarked for vulnerable races just to keep his seat... and failed.
NC GOP are in disarray, but the local media hasn't gotten wind of it yet.
I think this is a solid year for Ds in NC but this sample is screaming huge outlier.
It's likely undecideds are pretty R leaning and they weren't pushed in this poll. That being said, Cooper being at 50% is what is important here.
Yeah, Cooper is getting the 50% he has been getting in almost every poll, they didn't seem to force undecideds (who will likely lean towards Whatley to some degree) to take a side. That said, I'm still guessing Cooper ends up no higher than 53%/54% -- he's well-liked, but NC is way more federally polarized than other similar southern states (GA, VA).
Yeah he routinely held a double digit lead in 2020 (sometimes approaching 20 points) and in the end won by just 52%-47%. I’m expecting a similar margin this time.
The outlier for this poll is nuts for sure. That would be a Stein/Spanberger level blowout and would almost certainly flip control of the gerrymandered GOP legislature in a D-leaning midterm.
Being basically dead even in rural areas is scary for Whatley. It feels like Rs have already just given up on this race. Also, pump those no-college and some college numbers, Roy!
Color me skeptical. The right wing org not just published its own and more recent poll of Cooper leading 7-8pt, but also this OLDER poll of a double digit lead.
She is likely going to have a pretty easy race.
That said, the changes to that district make it only somewhat more crazy (when the district lines take effect). St Charles County has a lot of nutters.
2020 was the time to take her out
Not sure why Dems haven’t put a bipartisan commission for congressional districts on the ballot in Missouri like they have for the legislature. Would likely guarantee us a SL and KC seat and a swing SL seat.
There was a nonpartisan system put it place in 2018. It was overturned by the voters the next election because of deceptive ballot language by state politicians.
Please. You don't have to copy and paste someone else's full tweet. Especially if it has a tenuous connection to analysis of a downballot race.
I don't think it's tenuous. Lawler is a top target in the House race this year (I live in his district, I know) and when things like this happen, it can be a sign of vulnerability.
EDIT: Especially in Rockland County, which is a bit more conservative than the Westchester half I live in, and where Lawler is from and most likely has a base in.
I like what dragonfire5004 posts, I would never be on X myself so this is helpful and is germane to discussing downballot races.
I actually prefer people copy tweet texts so we don't have to give the site formerly known as Twitter any additional clicks.
Mike Lawler was DOA for re-election before this and he doesn’t seem to understand this.
Maybe he can work on establishing a Michael Jackson museum in NY so he as a longtime fan can learn the hard way that no one gives a shit.
We're seeing a trend where he is deteriorating by double digits on all the traditional GOP strengths: immigration, national security, the border and crime, and the movement is noticeable across several polls, but he continues to have that 33-37% (essentially a third of America) permanently locked in in terms of general approval. How long can this trend continue? How much ground can he keep losing on specific issues while maintaining mid 30s approval? I don't understand how that works.
Makes perfect sense. Thanks for your detailed response!
Presidents get into the 30's in approval when they start losing their own base; as Republicans started getting skeptical of the war in Iraq (among other controversies), George Bush slipped into a permanent downward spiral. With Iran, Epstein, and the bad economy (all of his MAGA strong points), the Trump cult is starting to marginally dwindle.. enough for him to go from the low 40's overall into the mid-to-high 30's.
goldwater got 39% during an economic boom time, in the wake of the killing of president kennedy, while promising to gut social security and was widely seen as a warmonger, 40% of this country stays forever crazy
And racist, which may have been more the point for most of those who voted for Goldwater.
I recall the effort to get comprehensive immigration reform was initiated during Bush’s 2nd term.
However, the approval ratings in 2006 were going down primarily because of the Iraq War and the efforts to privatize Social Security. Bush Jr was also a lame duck POTUS and the national security image he had that propelled him to win re-election in 2004 faded quickly after his re-election.
From what I recall, Bush could not convince enough members of Congress from his own party to support immigration reform legislation, although he did try to convince them behind closed doors.
Yes, I remember that. And this was years before Marco Rubio was in the Gang of Eight to follow through with another comprehensive immigration reform measure only for nothing to happen in the end.
Quite honestly, if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress back in 2005-2006 immigration reform would likely have been easier to manage. 2005-2006 was also a much better time to be a traditional conservative Republican than today.
Now those are flashing red emergency lights numbers that spell doomsday. Look at the Iran invasion numbers. They're not just bad. They are below 30%. Moreover, Trump's overall approval quite closely mirrors that and is dangerously close to sinking below 30%. With any luck, his numbers will further collapse long before the elections. Numbers below 30% are W Bush territory, who at his lowest of 25% approval was only beaten out by Nixon and Truman.
i hope i am wrong, but w never had the cult of personality that trump does, hence trump's numbers will never be in the 20's
I did some quick googling, which showed 80%+ high school, 30% college. Both stats are below the U.S., which is surprising. But give us a few years...we're rapidly racing to the bottom.
That, too, especially in Germany and countries in its economic and sociocultural periphery
This is true in Great Britain too.
The U.S. (and the Anglosphere as a whole) has a well above average number of degreed people, at least as that term is traditionally understood. The UK, Australia and Ireland are similar to the U.S. and Canada actually has more, though their definition of post secondary is somewhat more generous than the other four.
Germany is only like 33% as another example but has a very robust vocational post secondary apprenticeship and educational model. It’s the English speaking countries and to a somewhat lesser extent Scandinavia that are the big outliers on four year and graduate/postgrad degrees
Your comment struck a particular nerve.
Completion rates and graduation rates are not a reflection of graduate quality, or school quality. We've been coasting on "America has the best universities in the world" thing for decades now, and there are increasingly diminishing returns, and growing problems, and I don't think calling ourselves a nation of Einsteins is accurate, certainly not in a comparative context.
I.E, many new American graduates cannot complete basic tasks in a modern workplace, such as dealing with converting PDF files, or engaging in basic unguided problem solving, things college is supposed to prepare you for, to the extent that many employers are finding these "educated" students to be useless.
https://fortune.com/article/bosses-firing-gen-z-right-after-hiring-them-what-needs-to-change/
https://calibre.careers/editorial/insights/gen-z-hiring-challenges-xxv
https://www.forbes.com/sites/cherylrobinson/2025/04/15/many-college-degrees-are-now-useless-heres-whats-worth-your-money/
The university to career system is nothing like it was even 10 years ago, certainly not at the undergraduate level. As someone who was in a pre-PhD program post-covid at a modest state school I found the stipend and financial structure to be completely unworkable, and it is what turned me away for pursuing further.
Focusing on metrics such as what % of the population has finished our teach-to-the-test-since-birth, overstandardized, and utterly underfunded education system I don't think tells us whether we're really better of educationally than Italians. JD Vance went to Yale for pete's sake.
If we're a nation of geniuses and we put these clowns into office, the Italians, clearly half of them not finishing high-school, don't stand a prayer, and surely will have another Mussolini before long. /s
There is going to have to be a policy reckoning with the way college is done in this country. Accreditation, student loans, AI, all of it. Given the current economic situation, I'm not shocked candidates aren't rushing to take on yet another set of powerful institutions/financial interests.
This just highlights the growing inequality of Income Gap in the US as a whole. Which again highlights the American Business control of Taxation and Investment Strategy of Congress by The CEO Oligarchs and their Short Term Quarterly Profits mentality, not the long term investment in people that history has taught us, is How Great Nations are built and Maintained.
As a society, if it isn't already too late, we need to displace the thinking that Government should be run as a Business Model instead of a Society Builder. After all, if you look at the happiest combined with the wealthiest Countries today, they are the Democratic Socialist Countries in Europe, where poverty is non existing, and Millionaires are still thriving. We need to end the era of Trickle Down Economics in the Midterms and turn this Ship of State around.
"Poverty is nonexistent" is a great exaggeration, as is "democratic socialist". How many people reading know that medical insurance can be very expensive in Germany, for example? To be sure, it usually isn't for citizens, and needed medical care can't be denied by insurance companies, but health care is not free there. However, if you didn't exaggerate, I'd agree with you.
Aren't Germany and Switzerland outliers in Europe where customers have to pay out of pocket for health care?
Yes, I believe they are. They still have excellent social services in Germany, though, and I believe in Switzerland.
Italy is the 4th oldest population in the world and until the 1960's was still tracking students into work training at age 11.
!!!
Between 1961 and 1972 the percentage of Italian middle school students entering upper secondary school went from 18.5% to 43.1%.
MO-6: That 2008 ad of three people dancing continues to live rent-free in my head.
Is anyone else having an issue with the notifications from Substack? Any of the paid ones that I’m a part of do not give me notifications anymore. But all the other ones still do.
Somewhat reassuring that the GOP didn’t choose the two election deniers for Michigan AG and SoS. I’m sure the chosen candidates still have their issues but the further we can keep the 2020 conspiracy theorists away from any positions of power the better
Appears Michigan GOP is beginning to rebound from the Karami mess, where competing wings both claimed to control the state party/budget.
I swear my phone inserts typos, but it's probably really just my thumbs.
For an overview of Sam Graves's career as a Missouri congressman, see Jess Piper's recent Substack, The View from Rural Missouri
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQgLFffnDvflwlqCwgWWcnMxdfh
Jess Piper is fantastic. Very outspoken liberal not afraid to go deep into rural areas of Missouri where other Democrats wouldn't bother.
I met her in Edwardsville, IL several months ago, and she was fantastic at message delivery.
The correct link to Jess Piper's Substack post on Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO): https://jesspiper.substack.com/p/another-one