Rep. Wesley Hunt (right), Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas (credit: Wesley Hunt Facebook)
Leading Off
TX-Sen
Rep. Wesley Hunt announced Monday that he would oppose Sen. John Cornyn in Texas’ March 3 Republican primary—a decision that comes after Cornyn’s allies waged an aggressive effort to deter Hunt from running.
Cornyn already faced a difficult intraparty challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Hunt’s entry will make it tough for anyone to win the majority of the vote necessary to avert a May 26 primary runoff.
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Hunt, a 43-year-old Army veteran who would be the state’s first Black senator, began his campaign by positioning himself as an alternative to his two older primary rivals.
“As a young man who is giving his best years back to this country, who is giving my earning years back to this country, I’ve realized that we don’t need any more 70 and 80 year-olds in the Senate,” he tells the audience in his launch video. “It’s time for us young people to have a voice in the Senate, because the votes that I take are going to be very important because I’m still going to be around to see them come to fruition.”
Cornyn, 73, sees things differently.
“Wesley Hunt is a legend in his own mind,” an advisor to the senator said in a statement. “No one is happier this morning than the national Democrats who are watching Wesley continue his quixotic quest for relevancy, costing tens of millions of dollars that will endanger the Trump agenda from being passed.”
Cornyn’s well-funded backers at the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund were likewise angry that the two-term congressman decided to seek a promotion, with the former ominously promising “a full vetting of his record.”
Paxton, 62, was more welcoming.
“Primaries are good for our party and our voters, and Wesley and General Paxton both know that Texans deserve better than the failed, anti-Trump record of John Cornyn,” his team said in a statement.
Hunt, for his part, argued that he’s a stronger opponent for Cornyn than the scandal-ridden Paxton. The congressman told a radio show that the polling divide between Paxton and Cornyn—who’d trailed by double digits in earlier surveys but is now in a much closer race—had narrowed because Paxton was failing to get his message out.
“I can assure you if Ken were fighting back, there wouldn’t be a closing of the gap at all,” Hunt said, “but the fact of the matter is he’s not.”
Hunt’s entry ends more than half a year of behind-the-scenes maneuvering that’s alienated many of his fellow Republicans—possibly including the one he can least afford to piss off.
NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reported in July that Hunt had tried to pressure Cornyn to retire by spreading a rumor that Donald Trump might tap the senator to lead NASA. Hunt’s attempts to elbow Cornyn out while positioning himself as the best candidate to stop Paxton, though, did not have the desired effect.
“They’ve pissed off the White House because they’re so badgering,” a GOP operative told Gorman. “The way they’ve gone along operating is very arrogant and unsophisticated, and they’ve been told by multiple folks they need to pump the brakes.”
One unnamed member of the Lone Star State’s gigantic GOP House delegation also said of Hunt, “There’s 25 of us in the delegation, and I’d say he is the least liked out of everybody.”
Hunt and his allies, though, instead continued to air ads to raise his name recognition outside of his base in the Houston area. AdImpact reports that Hunt’s side has spent $5.5 million so far on commercials, including $100,000 devoted to West Palm Beach, Florida, and Washington, D.C. (One guess who those spots are aimed at.)
Hunt’s decision makes him the third Republican member of the House this year who’s contravened the wishes of GOP power brokers and opted to run statewide instead of staying put, following John James in Michigan and David Schweikert in Arizona.
Texas Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that a prolonged GOP fight, plus the prospect of Paxton as their opponent, will give them an opening in this longtime Republican bastion.
They have their own closely watched primary, though, between state Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Colin Allred, who was the Democratic nominee last year for Texas’ other Senate seat. Either would be the first Democrat to represent the state in the upper chamber since 1993. In addition, Allred, like Hunt, would also be the state’s first Black senator.
A new survey from Republican pollster co/efficient finds a 54-36 majority of California voters in favor of Proposition 50, the November ballot measure that would temporarily redraw the state’s congressional map to combat new GOP gerrymanders in Texas and elsewhere.
The poll, which was first obtained by Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick, obtains that result by asking respondents simply, “Do you support or oppose California’s constitutional amendment known as Proposition 50?”
Further approaches to the question, however, don’t meaningfully change the outcome. A lengthier version that mentions (among other things) that the measure “authorizes temporary changes to congressional district maps in response to Texas’ partisan redistricting” and notes that it “has a one-time cost to counties of up to a few million dollars statewide” yields a similar 56-39 margin in support.
After a battery of eight statements about the amendment—half positive and half negative, drawn from TV ads both sides are airing—opinions are still largely unchanged, with the proposition passing 57-40. (The pollster says its survey was “not sponsored by any candidate or a committee supporting a candidate,” though there are no candidates on the November statewide ballot.)
Other recent polling has generally shown support for the measure, which needs a simple majority to pass, somewhere in the 50s.
NE Redistricting
Republican Gov. Jim Pillen tells the Nebraska Examiner that he’s amenable to redrawing the state’s congressional map to gerrymander a vulnerable GOP-held seat, but he doesn’t sound especially engaged as yet.
“I’m open to all kinds of conversations,” Pillen said. “Obviously, a couple of states have done redistricting. It was done before I became governor, so that was off my radar. … I’ve just not paid attention to how all that works.”
It would take a two-thirds supermajority to overcome a filibuster, so Republicans—who hold exactly that proportion of seats in the state’s unicameral legislature—could not afford a single defection. One GOP lawmaker, though, has already expressed doubts. In addition, any new map could also face a veto referendum, just like in Missouri and Ohio.
UT Redistricting
Utah Republicans adopted a new congressional map on Monday that would turn two Republican-held seats into potentially competitive districts in the Salt Lake County area, but it’s not clear whether the judge overseeing a long-running dispute over the lines will sign off.
The plan, known as “Map C,” would split the county between two districts, down from its current three. The resulting 2nd District would have voted for Donald Trump by a 52-45 margin, a steep drop from his 59-39 win there last year. The 3rd, meanwhile, would have gone for Trump by an even narrower 50-48 spread, a similarly large shift compared to his previous 58-39 victory.
The approach could prove risky for Republicans, who have resisted creating a single, solidly blue district that would leave the state’s other three seats safely red. Plaintiffs, by contrast, propose doing just that. They submitted a pair of maps to the court, including one that would establish a compact district located entirely within Salt Lake County and another that would merge part of the county with neighboring Tooele County.
Trump, however, has long run behind other GOP candidates in Utah, so Republicans may be betting that the presidential numbers represent something of a low-water mark for them.
However, their proposal may not meet with the approval of Judge Dianna Gibson, who struck down the state’s previous map in August after finding that Republicans had violated the state Constitution when they sought to repeal a voter-backed ballot initiative aimed at cracking down on gerrymandering and passed skewed districts instead.
Gibson had ordered the state to pass a new map by Monday, but she may conclude that the GOP’s plan doesn’t comply with the initiative, known as Proposition 4, which mandates that districts be “geographically compact” and preserve “local communities of interest.”
Republicans, though, are hoping to perform an end-run around Gibson. In addition to their new map, they also passed a separate bill seeking to limit the tools she can use to evaluate whether the new lines are compliant with Proposition 4’s anti-gerrymandering rules.
That legislation creates new tests that all favor Republicans, but opponents are already pushing back. On Monday, following the passage of the new law, plaintiffs asked the court for permission to challenge the measure, arguing it would “impair the core reforms of Proposition 4” by “mandating the use of certain ‘tests’ ill-suited to Utah’s political realities.”
The parties have until Oct. 17 to file any objections to the proposed plans, with two days of hearings set to begin on Oct. 23.
Election Night
TN-07
Voters will choose nominees on Tuesday night for the Dec. 2 special election for Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District, a conservative seat that Democrats are eyeing for a possible upset.
Republicans have a busy primary that may have gotten upended on Friday when Donald Trump gave his endorsement to Matt Van Epps, a former member of Gov. Bill Lee’s cabinet and an Army National Guard veteran who flew combat missions as a helicopter pilot. Van Epps already had the backing of both Lee and former Rep. Mark Green, whose mysterious resignation earlier this year triggered the special election.
None of the candidates has stood out on the fundraising front, but Van Epps has been the beneficiary of almost $1.3 million in outside spending. Only one other contender has seen significant third-party expenditures, though not in a way he’d like: State Rep. Jody Barrett, who was endorsed by the House Freedom Caucus, has gotten hit with more than $1.1 million in negative messaging, led by the Club for Growth.
Others on the ballot include state Rep. Gino Bulso, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, businessman Mason Foley, and real estate developer Stewart Parks (a pardoned Jan. 6 convict). Keeping their hopes alive is the fact that Trump waited until very late in the game to endorse—after early voting had concluded.
On the Democratic side, by contrast, there’s no obvious frontrunner. The field includes three sitting members of the state House—Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie, and Bo Mitchell—as well as businessman Darden Copeland. All have raised roughly comparable sums in the lower six figures, though Dixie received $100,000 in outside support from an obscure group called United We Succeed.
The 7th District voted for Donald Trump by a daunting 60-38 margin last year, making it a huge lift for Democrats. But because the GOP added a slice of Nashville to the district when they drew their last gerrymander, Democrats hope the city will provide a large base of motivated voters eager to show up for what could otherwise be a lower-turnout affair.
GA-Sen: Mike Collins (R): $1.9 million raised, additional $1 million transferred from House account, $2.4 million cash on hand; Derek Dooley (R): $1.8 million raised, $1.7 million in cash on hand
MN-Sen: Angie Craig (D): $2.2 million raised, $3 million cash on hand
NC-Sen: Roy Cooper (D): $10.8 million raised (in 65 days)
AZ-01: Jonathan Treble (D): Approx. $390,000 raised, additional $308,000 self-funded
TN-05: Chaz Molder (D): $786,000 raised (in one month)
Senate
KY-Sen
Marine veteran Amy McGrath announced on Monday that she’d run for Kentucky’s open Senate seat, five years after losing in a blowout to its current occupant, Mitch McConnell.
The race will be McGrath’s third campaign for Congress. The former fighter pilot, who made a splashy entrance into politics in 2017 with a viral launch video touting her battle to fly planes in combat, nearly scored an upset the following year when she lost to Republican Rep. Andy Barr by a 51-48 margin in the conservative 6th District.
McGrath hoped to build on that showing the next cycle by setting her sights on an even bigger target. But while McConnell served as an ideal bogeyman for generating grassroots donations, McGrath’s monster fundraising prowess—she took in an eye-popping $94 million in all—did not translate into success at the ballot box: She wound up losing 58-38 in what was the second-largest win of McConnell’s long career.
McGrath joins a Democratic primary that includes state House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson, though Republicans remain the overwhelming favorites to hold McConnell’s seat despite hosting an already vicious primary. The GOP contest is currently a three-way affair between Rep. Andy Barr, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris.
Governors
CA-Gov
EMILYs List has endorsed former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in the packed top-two primary for governor of California.
The group, which noted that Porter would be the first woman elected to lead the nation’s largest state, issued its endorsement the week after former state Senate leader Toni Atkins dropped out of the race. One other prominent woman, former state Comptroller Betty Yee, is still running, but she’s struggled to gain traction in the polls.
VA-Gov, VA-LG, VA-AG
Democrat Abigail Spanberger posts a 52-42 advantage over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor of Virginia, according to a newly released poll from Christopher Newport University. Fellow Democrat Ghazala Hashmi enjoys a similar 48-39 edge over Republican John Reid for lieutenant governor.
The school also shows Democrat Jay Jones unseating Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares 49-43, but there’s a caveat. The poll was completed on Oct. 1, which was two days before the conservative National Review publicized texts Jones sent in 2022 joking about inflicting violence against then-state House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
House
CA-45
Former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo on Monday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign against Democratic Rep. Derek Tran in California’s 45th District, an Orange County-based constituency that Tran narrowly flipped last year.
Vo told Politico he’d continue his campaign even if California voters approve a new congressional map next month that makes the 45th a few points bluer. Kamala Harris narrowly carried the current incarnation of this seat 49-48, but she would have prevailed 51-47 here under the proposed new lines.
Two better-known local Republicans, though, have said they aren’t going to run. Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen’s team informed Politico last week that she’s decided not to take on Tran. Former Rep. Michelle Steel, whom Tran unseated last year, previously ruled out a rematch in July.
Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, by contrast, did file FEC paperwork in August for a potential campaign. He has yet to announce anything, however, more than a month later.
ME-02
State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who’d been weighing a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Jared Golden since May, kicked off his bid on Monday.
In his launch video, Dunlap went directly at the incumbent, who’s long cultivated a reputation as one of the most Trump-friendly Democrats in Congress.
“There’s bad and even worse: Jared Golden and Paul LePage,” says a narrator, as a photo of Golden is labeled “bad” and LePage gets branded “worse.” (LePage, the former two-term Republican governor of Maine, launched a campaign against Golden in May.)
“Golden voted against unemployment benefits, child tax credits, and more affordable healthcare,” the voiceover continues. “LePage opposed federal Medicaid funding. Golden even said he was ‘OK with’ Donald Trump becoming president again.” Dunlap then takes over, saying he’s “not okay with Donald Trump as president” and expressing his support for Medicare for all and universal child care.
Many Democrats have long voiced displeasure with Golden’s penchant for voting against Democratic priorities and giving cover to Trump, including an op-ed he wrote last year headlined, “Donald Trump is going to win the election and democracy will be just fine.”
But Golden has always faced a difficult task representing northern Maine’s rural 2nd District, which voted for Trump three times in a row, most recently by a 54-44 margin in 2024. Golden survived that election by just 2,700 votes—a spread of just 0.6%—following a recount.
That track record has Golden and his supporters warning that the more liberal Dunlap, who served as secretary of state before state lawmakers tapped him to serve as auditor several years ago, can’t win a general election.
“If Matt Dunlap thinks this district will choose him over Paul LePage, he’s got another thing coming,” said Golden in a statement. His campaign also issued a press release hammering Dunlap for featuring a photo of the city of Portland—which is in Maine’s other congressional district—as the backdrop on his campaign website. (It’s since been changed.)
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been more pointed. According to multiple outlets, including NOTUS, the committee “has warned both Dunlap and Maine Democratic leadership that if Golden isn’t the nominee, it could jeopardize national investment in the race and endanger the party’s chances of winning the majority.”
Golden and Dunlap will face off in a primary next June that will be decided by ranked-choice voting, though an instant runoff is only likely to come into play if a third candidate jumps in. LePage, meanwhile, has the GOP side to himself. The general election will also use ranked-choice voting.
NM-02
Marine veteran and retired police officer Greg Cunningham has announced that he’ll seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
Cunningham previously waged two unsuccessful bids for office, losing to Democratic state Rep. Joy Garratt 53-47 in 2022 and then 54-46 two years later. He’s now seeking to flip New Mexico’s 2nd District, which Donald Trump carried 50-48 last year.
Former public radio anchor Jami Floyd tells Politico she’s considering running as a “no-nonsense moderate and centrist” Democrat for New York’s safely blue 12th District. Floyd would join a busy field of candidates running to succeed Rep. Jerry Nadler, who is retiring after more than three decades in Congress.
Floyd resigned from the NPR affiliate WNYC in 2022 after she was accused of plagiarism. Floyd, who is Black, later sued her former employer for, among other things, allegedly engaging in racial discrimination. A settlement was reached last year.
NY-19
State Sen. Peter Oberacker on Monday became the first prominent Republican to launch a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York’s 19th District.
Oberacker, who represents just over a third of Riley’s constituents in the legislature, began his campaign with support from Haris Alic, a congressional staffer who had talked about running back in July. No other notable Republicans have publicly expressed interest in taking on Riley.
Calculations from The Downballot show that the 19th, which is based in the southeastern corner of upstate New York, favored Kamala Harris by a tight 50-49 spread. Last year, Riley unseated GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro 51-49, two years after falling just short in their first bout.
TX-21
Trey Trainor, a well-connected Republican attorney who just resigned his seat on the Federal Election Commission, announced Monday that he’d seek Texas’ open 21st District.
Trainor, the Texas Tribune writes, is a longtime force in state and national GOP politics going back to 2003, when he helped implement the infamous “DeLaymander.” Trainor went on to serve as general counsel to the Republican National Convention’s 2016 platform committee, and Donald Trump rewarded him with an appointment to the FEC.
Trainor joins a GOP field that includes businessman Jason Cahill and Mark Teixeira, a former Texas Rangers first baseman. The 21st District, which GOP Rep. Chip Roy is leaving behind to run for state attorney general, is conservative turf under both the current lines and the GOP’s new gerrymander.
TX-38
Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt’s decision to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the primary means there will be an open-seat race to succeed him in Texas’ 38th District, a conservative bastion located north of Houston. Donald Trump would have won here 60-38 under the new GOP gerrymander, which isn’t much different from his 59-39 showing under the current lines.
Multiple Republicans were quick to enter the March 3 primary following Hunts’ announcement, though one of them starts with some early advantages over the rest of the field.
Mortgage broker Jon Bonck, who had been opposing GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw for renomination in the 2nd District, said he would run in the 38th instead, and he quickly picked up an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz. Bonck also had over $400,000 in his campaign account at the end of June that he can use for his new effort. (Updated reports are due later this month.)
Former FAA official Shelly deZevallos and Barrett McNabb, a businessman and Army veteran, also launched their campaigns Monday, and other Republicans are sure to take a look at this race. A May 26 runoff will take place if no one clears 50% in the first round.
WI-07
Michael Alfonso, who is the son-in-law of Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, is considering running for the House seat that Duffy resigned from six years ago, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Alfonso has yet to say anything publicly about campaigning to replace Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is giving up Wisconsin’s safely red 7th District to run for governor. One local GOP chair, though, told the paper, “I think it’s just a matter of when he announces, which I would expect any week now.”
This party leader, who went unnamed, brought up the 25-year-old Alfonso’s age as one of the “things that he’s going to have to overcome.” However, the source added, “But you know if he gets the Trump endorsement—I’m sure the Duffys will put money behind him. So you know he’ll probably be a formidable candidate.”
Attorneys General
VA-AG
Republican Del. Carrie Coyner said Monday that Democrat Jay Jones told her in 2020 that “if a few” police officers died, law enforcement might “move on, not shooting people, not killing people.” Jones, who is running for attorney general, quickly denied he’d made such remarks.
Coyner told the Virginia Scope that those comments came during a discussion about repealing the legal doctrine of qualified immunity, a cause that Jones supported in the legislature. Coyner recounted that Jones’ words came in response to her fears that such a change would result in the deaths of police officers.
“I did not say this,” Jones said in a statement to the Scope. “I have never believed and do not believe that any harm should come to law enforcement, period.”
The story was published the same day that Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares launched what Axios reports is a $1.5 million ad buy focused on the 2022 text messages Jones sent to Coyner in which he joked about wanting to see violence inflicted on then-Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family.
“Jay Jones confirmed that he hoped an opponent’s children could die to advance his political agenda,” the narrator says. “Can you trust Jay Jones to protect your children?”
Secretaries of State
IN-SoS
Marine veteran Beau Bayh, who is the son of former Sen. Evan Bayh, announced Monday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales.
Bayh, who hails from one of the most prominent political families in the state—his late grandfather was former Sen. Birch Bayh—began his effort by highlighting the negative press surrounding Morales.
“The secretary of state’s office is a perfect example of what’s gone wrong,” Bayh, who is seeking the post that his father once held in the 1980s, told the Indianapolis Star. “The person serving that office has bought a luxury SUV that cost $90,000 with Hoosier taxpayer money. That is more than the average Hoosier makes in an entire year.”
“He loves paying his brother-in-law $100,000,” Bayh separately told reporters in comments shared by the Indiana Capital Chronicle. “He loves traveling the world on the taxpayer dime. I’m not going to let that happen.”
But while Bayh is hoping that Morales is weak enough to give him an opening in this conservative state, there’s no guarantee the incumbent will be Bayh’s opponent next year. Knox County Clerk David Shelton, who lost the GOP nomination to Morales in 2022, launched a bid for a rematch in April.
Indiana, unlike most states, chooses nominees for secretary of state through a party convention rather than through a traditional primary. In 2022, Morales wrested the GOP nod from incumbent Holli Sullivan after he called the 2020 presidential election a “scam” and pledged to “secure our elections.” (Shelton came in third.)
Democrats hoped that Morales’ extremism would give them an opening for an office they last won in 1990, but he prevailed 54-40 in the general election. Morales, though, ran well behind GOP Sen. Todd Young’s 59-38 margin of victory that same night.
Judges
WI Supreme Court
The Wisconsin Democratic Party endorsed Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor on Monday, cementing her status as the consensus liberal candidate in next year’s race for an open seat on the state Supreme Court.
Taylor previously earned the support of the court’s four other liberal members, as well as Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and EMILYs List. She’ll likely face off against conservative Judge Maria Lazar, a fellow member of the Court of Appeals, in the April election to replace retiring Justice Rebecca Bradley, another conservative. Lazar has not received any notable endorsements yet.
Editor’s note: Our last Digest incorrectly identified a candidate for governor of Colorado. The candidate is state Rep. Mark Baisley, not Brandi Bailey.
It is pretentious and erroneous for Ken Paxton to refer to himself as "General Paxton." In the phrase "attorney general," the word "general" is an adjective, not a noun. He is the general attorney for the state. Making his title sound like an exalted military position is an example of stolen valor.
VA GOV: Spanberger (D) vs Earle-Sears (R) - who would do a better job handling...
🔵 Healthcare: D+18
🔵 Transgender policy: D+13
🔵 Fed. workforce reduction: D+12
🔵 Threats to Democracy: D+10
🔵 Inflation: D+9
🔵 Fed. Workforce reduction: D+8
🔵 Immigration: D+6
🔵 Taxes: D+4
🔵 Crime: D+2
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1975301099247534200
It is pretentious and erroneous for Ken Paxton to refer to himself as "General Paxton." In the phrase "attorney general," the word "general" is an adjective, not a noun. He is the general attorney for the state. Making his title sound like an exalted military position is an example of stolen valor.