Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach (R), who unsuccessfully sued to force the state to stop allowing transgender people from changing their gender markers on their driver’s licenses (credit: Kris Kobach Facebook)
Leading Off
KS Redistricting
As Kansas Republicans take steps toward further gerrymandering their state’s congressional map, GOP leaders have hit on a new idea to woo reluctant lawmakers: promising they’ll have the chance to vote on anti-trans legislation in a proposed special session.
Last week, the Kansas Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by Republican Attorney General Kris Kobach in a long-running case regarding gender markers on driver’s licenses.
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Kobach had sued to block the practice in 2023, following the passage of a Republican-backed law seeking to redefine gender in terms of biological sex. That bill passed over a veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, but Kelly directed state agencies to keep allowing transgender individuals to make changes to their driver’s licenses and birth certificates—something permitted in almost every state.
Kobach initially won an injunction from a trial court. But earlier this year, the state Court of Appeals overturned that ruling, explaining in a 56-page decision that the attorney general had failed to demonstrate “irreparable harm.” As a result, Kansans were able to resume changing their gender markers—a decision that was affirmed last week when the state Supreme Court said it would not revisit the case.
Leaders in both chambers have sent letters to their caucuses saying (in one version from Senate President Ty Masterson) that Kobach “has urgently requested that the Legislature call a special session to address an issue that he considers even more important than redistricting”—namely, amending the law to once again prohibit anyone from changing their gender markers.
Masterson added that if lawmakers act, they would “prevent a flood of individuals seeking to change their driver’s license.” As the Reflector noted earlier this year, Kansas’ motor vehicles agency issued 9,316,937 driver’s licenses between 2011 and 2022. During that time, 380 residents sought to change their gender marker—just 0.004% of all licenses.
GOP leaders recently began circulating a petition to convene a special session, which requires the assent of two-thirds of the members of each house of the legislature. Republicans can afford only four defections in each chamber, and multiple lawmakers have said they don’t plan to sign.
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It appears that JD Vance’s latest mission to Indiana to push Republicans to redraw their map has yielded no more fruit than his first visit in August.
Politico’s Adam Wren says that his sources described the meetings in Indianapolis as “productive” but “had no immediate deliverable.” One anonymous pro-gerrymandering Republican told Wren, “I don’t feel like it’s a slam dunk yet, but I think we definitely made progress.”
The plan, though, seems to be to annoy holdouts into submission.
“I think they definitely get that we’re not going away,” the same source added.
Whether that proves to be an effective tactic remains to be seen. Wren summed up another source as saying that “Vance’s meetings with the House went better than with the Senate, which was still ‘pretty stiff.’”
GOP leaders in both chambers issued separate statements following the get-togethers that indicated a final answer would come “soon,” though Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray continued to express uncertainty.
“No decision’s been made,” he told reporters on Friday, and when asked if he had the votes to enact a new gerrymander, he said he was still “looking at that.”
MO Redistricting
As Missouri Democrats seek to qualify a veto referendum to pause or even repeal the state’s new congressional gerrymander, Politico’s Aaron Pellish reports that they aren’t getting much financial support from their national counterparts.
The DNC has offered some organizing assistance, and the DCCC commissioned a poll showing that mid-decade redistricting is unpopular, Pellish says. However, the group collecting signatures for the referendum, People Not Politicians, hasn’t received major monetary contributions from big D.C.-based organizations—though it would like to.
“To the extent that there are certainly talented people and resources that can come and invest in Missouri, that’s always welcomed and appreciated,” said Richard von Glahn, the committee’s executive director, “and I don’t want to come across that it’s not needed or wanted.”
People Not Politicians is also contending with another issue. Late last month, Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the group’s petition to place their measure on the ballot, saying they should not have filed it before Gov. Mike Kehoe signed the new map. Organizers immediately filed a lawsuit arguing that Hoskins doesn’t have the power to deny their petition on the grounds he cited.
Last week, the group said it had already obtained 50,000 signatures in its first three weeks; around 115,000 total are necessary. However, around 20,000 of those signatures were gathered before Kehoe approved the map, and their fate may depend on what the courts have to say.
NC Redistricting
North Carolina Republicans announced on Monday that they would revisit their state’s congressional map at a legislative session slated to begin next week.
In a statement, leaders pledge to draw “an additional Republican Congressional seat.” According to previous reports, they intend to target the 1st District in the northeastern corner of the state, which is currently held by Democrat Don Davis.
The GOP already made Davis’ district redder ahead of last year’s election when it passed a previous mid-decade gerrymander, though Davis narrowly hung on. Now, however, they’ll try to drive it even further to the right.
Democratic Gov. Josh Stein castigated Republicans in response.
“The General Assembly works for North Carolina, not Donald Trump,” he said in a press release. “The Republican leadership in the General Assembly has failed to pass a budget, failed to pay our teachers and law enforcement what they deserve, and failed to fully fund Medicaid. Now they are failing you, the voters. These shameless politicians are abusing their power to take away yours.”
Should the GOP-dominated legislature pass a new map, however, Stein would not be able to veto it due to a deliberate carve-out in North Carolina law that exempts redistricting plans from gubernatorial approval.
Former Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was reportedly being recruited to run for the Senate by Chuck Schumer, is saying no to the idea.
“After giving it careful consideration, we have decided that now is not the right time to re-enter public office,” Edwards said in a statement with his wife. Edwards was the last Democrat to win statewide office in Louisiana, but he’d still have been an underdog against Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces several primary opponents.
TX-Sen
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett downplayed the possibility that she might run for Senate in a new interview with CBS News Texas, which described a bid as “unlikely.”
“No, I’m focused on the congressional race, but we’ll see,” she said. “Right now, you have a Democratic primary that is heating up. Every time a poll comes out, somehow, I end up very near the top, if not the top. So again, I think that this is about what the people are asking for. We’ll see.”
A recent poll from a pair of Houston-area universities found Crockett leading a hypothetical Democratic primary with 31% of the vote. She also fared similarly to other actual and potential Democratic contenders in a general election against a variety of GOP opponents.
Crockett, though, seems more inclined to seek reelection to the House, saying previously that she could run in either the 30th District or the 33rd. Texas’ Dec. 8 candidate filing deadline is one of the earliest in the country, so she’ll need to decide fairly soon.
Governors
NJ-Gov, VA-Gov
With three weeks to go, Democrats hold a wide edge on the airwaves in both of this year’s gubernatorial elections.
According to data from AdImpact, New Jersey Democrats have an almost 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans, with $50 million in total ad spending and upcoming reservations, compared to $27 million for the GOP. The gap is slightly smaller but still considerable in Virginia, where Democrats have spent or reserved $43 million versus $28 million for Republicans.
OH-Gov
Former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who’s been considering a bid for governor, “has asked a small group of advisors to start working on putting together a campaign for him, but he has yet to make a decision,” a spokesperson tells the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
That aide, however, “didn’t offer any reasons why Ryan is making such a blatant move toward entering the race yet still hesitating to commit to running, nor did he say when Ryan will make a final decision,” the paper reports.
Back in August, Ryan, who is well-known for frequently flirting with bids for statewide office, gave himself a Sept. 30 deadline for making up his mind. When that day arrived, though, Ryan’s team distributed a statement saying he’d take “a few additional days” to decide whether to join former state health director Amy Acton in the Democratic primary.
Former race car driver Danica Patrick has confirmed earlier reports that she isn’t interested in a bid for Arizona’s newly open 1st District, telling the Charlie Kirk show, “I am not running for office.”
MD-01
Democrat Jake Day, a member of Gov. Wes Moore’s Cabinet who’s been considering a bid for Maryland’s lone GOP-held House seat, says he’s waiting on a potential remap to decide.
“I won’t be making any decision anytime soon,” Day told the Baltimore Banner in a new interview. “So much remains to be seen about the electoral map.”
Day, a former mayor of Salisbury, added that his internal polling showed he’d face a difficult race against Republican Rep. Andy Harris—which is as expected, given that the 1st District supported Donald Trump by a 57-40 margin last year and reelected Harris by an even wider 59-37 spread.
Unfortunately for Day, top Democrats haven’t moved forward with any plans to redraw the state’s congressional map, even as Republicans across the country barrel ahead in several states. Moore and legislative leaders keep expressing their openness to the idea, but none have actually called for action.
NY-12
New York City Councilman Erik Bottcher said last week that he was “seriously considering” a bid for retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler’s open 12th District—and apparently, he was serious indeed. Even though he still hasn’t declared his candidacy, Bottcher said that he raised $683,000 in the first 24 hours after announcing his potential campaign.
TX-32
Republican state Rep. Katrina Pierson, who previously punted when asked if she might run for Texas’ open 32nd District, now tells CBS News Texas that she’s “considering” a bid. After the GOP’s new gerrymander overhauled the district to make it more than 40 points redder, Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson said she’d run in the neighboring 33rd instead.
WI-07
State Senate President Mary Felzkowski, who’d been considering a bid for Wisconsin’s open 7th District, says she won’t seek the seat held by Rep. Tom Tiffany, a fellow Republican who’s running for governor.
However, former Marathon County GOP chair Kevin Hermening tells the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea that he’s looking at the race. Hermening, an investment advisor, was a 20-year-old member of the Marine Corps when he was assigned to protect the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. He was the youngest of the 52 Americans held hostage for 444 days until their release early in 1981.
The Republican Attorneys General Association has shipped another $2.5 million to the campaign of Republican Jason Miyares, whose bid for a second term as Virginia’s top law enforcement official has been buoyed by a series of negative stories about his Democratic opponent, Jay Jones.
In all, RAGA says it’s spent more than $8.5 million on next month’s election, helping to make this the lone Virginia race where the GOP has an edge on the airwaves. Data from AdImpact last week showed Democrats with a wide advantage in future ad reservations in the contests for governor and lieutenant governor, as well as the battle for control of the narrowly divided House of Delegates.
But in the election for attorney general, Miyares’ side had a $3.5 million to $1.6 million lead, which may have since grown.
Mayors & County Leaders
LA Mayor
Former investment banker Austin Beutner, who previously served as Los Angeles’ schools chief, announced a bid against Mayor Karen Bass on Monday.
“L.A. is adrift,” Beutner said in a launch video. “It seems every day our city is becoming a more expensive, less safe and more difficult place to live. The city has spent billions to solve problems that have just become bigger problems: homelessness, the cost of housing, the loss of jobs and opportunity.”
Beutner, a Democrat like Bass, was at one point an ally of the mayor’s and said he voted for her during her first campaign three years ago, when she defeated billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso. Caruso has mooted a rematch, but he’s also considering a run for governor.
Minneapolis, MN Mayor
Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who represents Minneapolis in Congress, has endorsed state Sen. Omar Fateh to be the city’s next mayor. Fateh is the leading challenger to incumbent Jacob Frey, who is seeking a third term in next month’s officially nonpartisan race. Both are Democrats, though Fateh, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is running to Frey’s left.
is using his massive list to give a boost to Mills during her launch, which begs the question: how much of her launch raise can be attributed to grassroots enthusiasm vs. just being an insider with connections?"
What happened to "officially neutral"? The establishment will need to be beaten again and again until they are no longer the establishment. It's the only solution. Someone or the other, maybe AOC or Tish James, will need to take out Schumer.
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1978099575161270721
"In a new CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly 60% of Americans say the Republican Party is “too extreme,” vs 46% who say the same about Democrats"
"The DSCC and Janet Mills have formed a joint fundraising committee together.
It is called “Maine Senate Victory 2026”
https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00923177/1919061/"
https://x.com/reesejgorman/status/1978101207253008393 of NOTUS
"Ooo interesting…
@Tim_Walz
is using his massive list to give a boost to Mills during her launch, which begs the question: how much of her launch raise can be attributed to grassroots enthusiasm vs. just being an insider with connections?"
https://x.com/bhaviklathia/status/1978143661549383804
What happened to "officially neutral"? The establishment will need to be beaten again and again until they are no longer the establishment. It's the only solution. Someone or the other, maybe AOC or Tish James, will need to take out Schumer.