Morning Digest, sponsored by Campaign Legal Center: Will a newcomer's bid help or hurt Texas' struggling GOP senator?

A poll argues John Cornyn is suddenly in better shape. Other data disagrees.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas (Credit: John Cornyn X account)

Leading Off

TX-Sen, TX-AG

Does Rep. Wesley Hunt’s recent entry into the GOP’s Senate primary help or hurt Sen. John Cornyn? A newly released poll from the incumbent’s allies argues that Hunt’s campaign benefits him, but a fresh survey from a pair of Texas schools shows the newcomer making little difference.

The pro-Cornyn poll, conducted in late September—before Hunt joined the race earlier this week—finds the senator leading his chief rival, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, by a 33-28 margin, with Hunt taking 21%. In a two-way race, however, Paxton surges to a 48-24 advantage over Cornyn.

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(The survey, first shared by Politico, was taken by Deep Root Analytics on behalf of Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC that has spent heavily on ads supporting Cornyn.)

By contrast, a new poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University sees Paxton with a 34-33 edge on Cornyn, while Hunt is back at 22. Remove Hunt from the equation, though, and the margin barely shifts: Cornyn leads Paxton 44-43. (Like the Republican poll, this survey was also in the field in late September before Hunt hopped in.)

Neither set of data, though, should offer much comfort for Cornyn and his supporters, because a plurality is not enough. Texas, like many Southern states, requires candidates to win a majority to earn their party’s nomination.

If that doesn’t happen in the March 3 primary, then the top two vote-getters will advance to a May 26 runoff. That probably wouldn’t be good news for Cornyn, though. A second round of voting would likely favor a challenger, whomever it might be, since voters who initially supported the third-place candidate have already made it known they’re ready to dump the incumbent.

Hunt has also been explicit in saying that he wants to see Cornyn lose.

“So if it’s me or if it’s Ken, I’m fine with that. Let’s battle that out. But I can tell you it’s not going to be John Cornyn,” he told Texas Monthly in a new interview.

When told he “sound[s] much more hostile to the idea” of Cornyn rather than Paxton winning, Hunt minced no words.

“Extraordinarily!” he replied. “Because we cannot have an establishment hack as our senator. We can’t have that. And that’s exactly what he has proven to be.”

And it’s not even clear whether Cornyn’s own campaign believes the arguments his own supporters are making with their poll. Following Hunt’s kickoff, a Cornyn spokesperson slammed Hunt by alluding to the widely shared belief on both sides that Paxton would jeopardize the GOP’s chances of winning next year’s race.

“No one is happier this morning than the national Democrats who are watching Wesley continue his quixotic quest for relevancy, costing tens of millions of dollars that will endanger the Trump agenda from being passed,” he complained. Paxton’s team, by contrast, welcomed Hunt, saying that primaries “are good for our party and our voters.”

The two universities also checked in on the Democratic primary, finding former Rep. Colin Allred leading state Rep. James Talarico 46-42. Allred’s standing, though, takes a major hit when two other potential candidates are added to the mix.

In that scenario, Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads with 31% of the vote, while Talarico and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke tie at 25 apiece. Allred, meanwhile, falls to last place with just 13%. Even if Crockett and O’Rourke don’t get in, the results suggest that Allred benefits from his superior name recognition in a one-on-one contest—and that many primary voters are looking for an alternative.

In addition, TSU and the University of Houston tested all three Republicans against all four Democrats in hypothetical general election matchups—a dozen in all. However, although the GOP leads in every case, every duel is fairly close, and the variance between candidates is relatively small.

In the closest race, Paxton leads Allred just 48-47, while the biggest gap shows up in Hunt’s 50-44 advantage on Talarico. All 12 pairings are summarized in the table below:

Finally, the schools ask about the GOP primary in the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general. In that contest, Rep. Chip Roy holds a wide 40-12 lead over state Sen. Joan Huffman, while former Justice Department official Aaron Reitz is at 8, and state Sen. Mayes Middleton takes just 3%.

The poll did not test the Democratic primary, which features former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski and state Sen. Nathan Johnson, or the general election.

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Why Virginia Dems think they can win big

Redistricting Roundup

LA Redistricting

Louisiana Republicans say they no longer plan to draw a new congressional map when they gather for a special session later this month but will instead seek to delay the state’s primary, NOLA.com’s Tyler Bridges reports.

In August, GOP leaders said they wanted to revisit the state’s districts in advance of a forthcoming Supreme Court ruling that could strike down the remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act. Such a ruling could allow Republicans to eliminate one or both of Louisiana’s two congressional districts that were created pursuant to the VRA to allow Black voters to elect their preferred candidates—in both cases, Black Democrats.

But barring a lightning-fast decision from the court, the outcome won’t be known by the time the special session is likely to wrap up in November—and the idea of prematurely mucking with congressional boundaries didn’t sit well with lawmakers.

According to Bridges, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry had wanted the legislature to prepare a new map that could take effect should the Supreme Court eviscerate the provision of the VRA at issue, known as Section 2. But lawmakers “pushed back,” says Bridges, telling the governor that the legislature “typically waits until a pending court case is settled before trying to address it through legislation.”

Instead, Republicans now say they want to push back the January candidate filing deadline and the April primary to give them more time to pass a new map if the court rules the way they want. One GOP official, though, tells Bridges that altering the calendar might not be so simple.

“It’s more involved than they can imagine,” said Secretary of State Nancy Landry (who is of no relation to the governor).

Election Night

New Orleans, LA Mayor

New Orleans City Council member Helena Moreno is the undisputed frontrunner going into Saturday’s election for mayor, but her two main rivals are hoping to force her into a runoff—and to be her opponent in it.

Moreno, fellow City Council member Oliver Thomas, and state Sen. Royce Duplessis are competing in an all-party election to replace termed-out incumbent LaToya Cantrell as leader of Louisiana’s largest city. (All four are Democrats.) Eight other names are on the ballot, but none are waging a serious effort.

The most recent poll of the race was a late September survey from the University of New Orleans that showed Moreno taking 49%, which is just shy of the majority she needs to avert a second round of voting on Nov. 15. The school found Duplessis edging out Thomas 15-13 for a second berth in a potential runoff.

Moreno, who was born in Mexico, would be the first Hispanic person to lead this majority-Black city, while both Duplessis and Thomas are Black. Moreno, though, has the support of some of the city’s most prominent Black elected officials.

There’s one well-known politician, though, whom no one wants to be associated with: the outgoing mayor. Cantrell was already unpopular even before she was indicted in August for allegedly misusing city resources and lying to federal officials to carry on and conceal an affair with a member of her protection unit.

Moreno may owe much of her lead to her history of opposing Cantrell during her eight years on the City Council, though that’s not the only reason she’s the favorite. Moreno was a local TV news anchor before she began her political career in 2008, and she enjoys a wide financial advantage over the rest of the field.

3Q Fundraising

• CO-Sen: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): $1.7 million raised, $3.6 million cash on hand

• GA-Sen: Buddy Carter (R): $1 million raised (has self-funded in past quarters), $3.9 million in cash on hand

• SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D): $1.59 million raised

• FL-Gov: Paul Renner (R): $3 million raised (in one month)

• SC-Gov: Alan Wilson (R): $1.3 million raised, $1 million cash on hand

• KY-06: Zach Dembo (D): $289,000 raised, $230,000 cash on hand; Ralph Alvarado (R): $376,000 raised

• NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc): $550,000 raised; Sandy Roberson (R): $252,000 raised, $2.4 million cash on hand

• NE-02: Brett Lindstrom (R): $430,000 raised, $410,000 cash on hand

• TX-09: Briscoe Cain (R): $425,000 raised (in five weeks)

• TX-35: Josh Cortez (R): $160,000 raised (in four weeks)

Governors

CA-Gov

Politico has released previously unseen footage from 2021 that shows former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter berating a staffer for being visible as she recorded a video.

“Get out of my fucking shot!” Porter exclaimed after a subordinate appeared behind her during the congresswoman’s conversation with Jennifer Granholm, who at the time was Joe Biden’s energy secretary.

The staffer proceeded to correct Porter on a comment she’d made to Granholm, to which Porter responded, “You also were in my shot before that. Stay out of my shot.”

Politico’s story was published one day after Porter, who leads in polls of next year’s race for California’s open governorship, attracted widespread attention on Tuesday evening after she repeatedly threatened to end an interview with a reporter she accused of adding “seven follow-ups to every single question you ask.”

“It’s no secret I hold myself and my staff to a high standard, and that was especially true as a member of Congress,” Porter told Politico in a statement. “I have sought to be more intentional in showing gratitude to my staff for their important work.”

Porter provided a similar response in 2023 for a Washington Post profile that, among other things, described her as a challenging boss. The piece, which ran during her unsuccessful Senate campaign, featured one former staffer saying Porter was “​​wildly unfit” to serve in the upper chamber even as she called her “one of the most brilliant people I’ve ever met.”

Porter had already earned unwanted scrutiny earlier this week after she expressed frustration when CBS News reporter Julie Watts asked her to explain her support for a November ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional map to the “40 percent of California voters, who you’ll need in order to win, who voted for Trump.”

Porter took issue with the premise that she might need support from the GOP minority in deep-blue California to prevail and said that Watts would “just circle around” rather than move on to other topics. The candidate said she was ending the interview early, though her team told the New York Times she continued answering questions for the remaining 20 minutes she’d allocated.

Porter’s intraparty opponents seized on these incidents to argue that she’s not suited to lead the nation’s largest state.

“As the last viable female candidate in this race, it matters to me that California’s first female governor be a trusted, respected leader we can all be proud of—not a viral embarrassment,” said former state Comptroller Betty Yee.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, likewise, purchased ad time in the state capital of Sacramento to air Porter’s three-minute confrontation with Watts.

VA-Gov

Public Policy Polling (D) for the Democratic Governors Association: Abigail Spanberger (D): 52, Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 43.

House

NY-08

Is New York City Council member Chi Osse interested in taking on Rep. Hakeem Jeffries in next year’s primary? We might have to consult the Magic 8 Ball.

After Axios reported that Osse, one of the most progressive members of the Council and an ally of Zohran Mamdani, was “privately discussing a run” against the top Democrat in the House, Osse suggested in a text message to the outlet that such a campaign was unlikely.

“All I have to say is that it would take a very dire situation in order for me to even consider spending the rest of my 20s in dc,” he wrote.

But 20 minutes later, the publication says, Osse followed up to say, “Just to be clear, I’m not running for Congress.”

Case closed, right? More like “outlook hazy, try again.” Peter Sterne, a reporter for City & State, was initially not sold, but now he thinks a bid could happen.

“Chi has said the same thing to me, down to the joke about not wanting to spend the rest of his 20s in DC.,” he initially wrote on social media in response to Axios’ story. “He’s certainly being pushed to run against Jeffries and is having conversations about it. But at this point, he’s not running.”

An hour later, though, Sterne had a different take.

“After a few more conversations with sources, I’m less confident that Chi definitely isn’t running,” he posted. “He’s been dismissive of the idea in the past, but it sounds like he is considering it more seriously now.”

Mayors & County Leaders

Miami, FL Mayor

Former City Manager Emilio Gonzalez picked up Sen. Rick Scott’s endorsement on Thursday ahead of next month’s 13-person contest for mayor of Miami.

Scott took sides just over two weeks after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis threw his support behind Gonzalez, who previously led U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under George W. Bush. Gonzalez is campaigning to succeed termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez, a fellow Republican.

The only other high-profile elected official who has issued an endorsement in the race is Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, who backed Democratic County Commissioner Eileen Higgins earlier this month.

Suarez, for his part, isn’t hiding that he has a favorite candidate—who just happens to be his dad. The mayor, though, recently told the Miami Herald that his father, former County Commissioner Xavier Suarez, “hasn’t really asked me to endorse him, and I don’t think he needs me necessarily to endorse him.”

“I get involved to the extent that my dad asks me to get involved,” the younger Suarez said, though he acknowledged, “Everybody knows he’s my father, and obviously I support him.”

That support included preparation for a recent debate, during which the incumbent says he advised his father not to bring up the 19th-century political thinker Alexis de Tocqueville in his opening statement. Xavier Suarez, who served as mayor during two separate stints in the 1980s and 1990s, referenced de Tocqueville anyway—something he now wishes he hadn’t done.

“He was right,” the elder Suarez, an independent who previously identified as a Democrat and a Republican at different points in his career, admitted.

The officially nonpartisan election will take place on Nov. 4, but candidates need to win a majority of the vote in order to avert a Dec. 9 runoff. There have been no recent public polls.

New York, NY Mayor

Quinnipiac: Zohran Mamdani (D): 46, Andrew Cuomo (I): 33, Curtis Sliwa (R): 15.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Hennepin County, MN Attorney

Attorney Anders Folk, who served as acting U.S. attorney for the state of Minnesota during the early months of the Biden administration, has entered the busy race to become the top prosecutor for Minnesota’s largest county. Folk is the fourth notable candidate running to replace retiring incumbent Mary Moriarty.

“I’m running for Hennepin County Attorney because our community deserves a prosecutor who understands the purpose and responsibilities of the office,” Folk said in his announcement. “The current County Attorney has lost sight of the office’s priorities.”

Folk joins three other candidates in August’s officially nonpartisan primary: state Rep. Cedrick Frazier, Ramsey County prosecutor Hao Nguyen, and attorney Matt Pelikan. The two candidates with the most votes will compete in the general election in November of next year.

The next attorney for Hennepin County, a solidly blue community that includes Minneapolis, is likely to be a Democrat.