Morning Digest: Responding to Texas, California Democrats release new map targeting GOP seats
The proposal, intended for a November vote, would also shore up several Democratic districts
Leading Off
CA Redistricting
California Democrats unveiled a new congressional map on Friday, aiming to counter a planned Republican gerrymander in Texas by making several GOP-held districts in the Golden State bluer while also shoring up a number of Democratic seats.
The plan was rolled out haphazardly on Friday evening, leaking to the public several hours before a committee in the state Assembly published an official version on its site.
For unclear reasons, the map was not drawn by California lawmakers. Rather, it was prepared by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats' official campaign arm based in Washington, D.C., according to a letter submitted to the legislature along with a presentation explaining the map.
That letter chastised Republicans in Texas and elsewhere for "doing the bidding of their DC party bosses." In a statement, the DCCC said its map was created "with collaborative input from stakeholders and legislators" but did not offer further details about its provenance. When asked for comment about why the plan originated with the committee, a spokesperson referred The Downballot back to that statement.
Lawmakers are set to take up the proposal this week, according to a schedule released by Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas. Committees in both chambers are set to hold hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday, with final votes to put the plan before voters in a November special election expected on Thursday.
Voters will be asked whether they want to temporarily replace California's current map, which was crafted by the state's independent redistricting commission in 2021, with this new plan. According to Gov. Gavin Newsom, the proposal will include a provision requiring California to stand down if Republican-run states like Texas back off their plans for mid-decade redistricting.
Just below, we outline the most important changes to the five Republican districts that Democrats are targeting. In each case, we've also included figures showing how each current district voted in the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections, as well as how the proposed new districts would have voted in those same elections.
To help our readers understand the new proposal, we've assembled links to several resources:
An interactive version of the new Democratic map on Dave's Redistricting App, as well as one of the current map
A chart with presidential election results by district for 2024 and 2020, both for the current map (as calculated by The Downballot) and the proposed map (as calculated by DRA, using 2020 data from VEST and 2024 data from Joshua Metcalf)
A table prepared by The Downballot showing how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district and vice-versa, plus a piece explaining how to read it
The data files from the California Assembly that were used to create the resources above
Once again, we are indebted to Jacob Hernandez, a member of The Downballot community who contributed extensively to this analysis.
CA-01: Doug LaMalfa (R)
Current map: 61-36 Donald Trump (2024), 58-39 Trump (2020)
New map: 54-42 Kamala Harris (2024), 58-40 Joe Biden (2020)
The deep-red 1st District in the northeastern corner of the state wasn't previously on any Democratic target lists, but under the new proposal, it would change shape—and partisanship—dramatically. The 1st would shed three heavily Republican counties in the north to the 2nd and give up red turf between Chico and Sacramento to the 4th. At the same time, it would grab parts of two very blue counties, Mendocino and Sonoma, including the city of Santa Rosa, chiefly drawing from the 2nd.
CA-03: Kevin Kiley (R)
Current map: 50-47 Trump (2024), 50-48 Trump (2020)
New map: 55-44 Harris (2024), 56-42 Biden (2020)
The 3rd, which sprawls from the Sacramento suburbs past Lake Tahoe and down to Death Valley, was a second-tier Democratic target for 2026, but it would rocket up the list under its proposed reconfiguration. The 3rd would grow much more compact by handing off some rural counties to the 1st and 5th. It would also swap parts of the Sacramento suburbs for bluer pieces of Sacramento County with the 6th, plus snatch up some deep-blue precincts in the city of Sacramento from the 7th.
CA-22: David Valadao (R)
Current map: 52-46 Trump (2024), 55-42 Biden (2020)
New map: 50-48 Trump (2024), 57-40 Biden (2020)
The perennially competitive 22nd District, based in the eastern Bakersfield area and the Central Valley, would get a bit bluer, but not as blue as it could. It would transfer some rural turf in Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties to the deep-red 20th District while picking up some swingier exurban areas in Fresno County that are currently in the 13th. What the proposal doesn't do, though, is take the Salinas Valley from the safely blue 18th District (held by Democrat Zoe Lofgren) and give it to the 22nd, even though the 18th could easily afford to part with it and thereby make the 22nd even bluer.
CA-41: Ken Calvert (R)
Current map: 52-46 Trump (2024), 50-49 Trump (2020)
New map: 57-43 Harris (2024), 62-36 Biden (2020)
The 41st, which includes the southern suburbs of Riverside as well as Palm Springs, was slated to host its third straight hotly contested election, but under this map, Republicans would have a very hard time holding it. The revamped district is entirely new, taking no turf at all from the current iteration of the 41st. Instead, it's drawn mostly from the existing 38th and 42nd districts and would be centered around the very blue Gateway Cities in southeast Los Angeles County, plus a small chunk of the northern reaches of Orange County.
CA-48: Darrell Issa (R)
Current map: 56-41 Trump (2024), 55-43 Trump (2020)
New map: 52-48 Harris (2024), 53-45 Biden (2020)
Like the 1st, which includes southern Riverside County and inland San Diego County, the 48th is a solidly red seat that Democrats weren't planning to seriously contest. But under the proposed map, it would become swingy territory by taking in blue areas around Palm Springs previously held by the 41st while offloading some of its reddest precincts in San Diego County to the 51st. It would also pull in blue turf around the North County cities of Escondido, San Marcos, and Vista that's currently in the 49th and 50th.
Unlike in Texas, where Republicans had already protected all of their incumbents thanks to a previous gerrymander, many California Democrats hold potentially competitive seats that could be vulnerable. Seven such districts would all be made bluer under the Democrats' proposed map: the 9th, 13th, 25th, 27th, 45th, 47th, and 49th.
One competitive GOP-held district, the Orange County-based 40th held by Young Kim, would also be made considerably redder, serving as a vote sink to help make surrounding districts bluer. It would transfer its bluest areas to the 47th, which Democrat Dave Min narrowly won last year, and absorb the reddest part of western Riverside County from the 41st.
To allow for all these transformations, quite a few Democratic districts would shed considerable chunks of blue turf, particularly the 2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th, 42nd, and 50th.
Jared Huffman's 2nd District along the state's northern coast would see the sharpest shift on a partisan basis among this group, dropping from a 71-26 margin for Harris to a 61-36 edge—a drop of 20 points. Just behind is Robert Garcia's 42nd District around Long Beach, which would get 18 points redder.
All would still have gone for Harris by double digits, but two other Democratic districts that would see smaller slippages would wind up with presidential margins in the high single digits: Ami Bera's 6th in Sacramento and Norma Torres' 35th around Pomona and Ontario.
Love The Downballot’s unique brand of election coverage? Upgrade today to unlock features available only to paid subscribers, including our new special guide tracking every redistricting development in every state.
Redistricting Roundup
CO Redistricting
Activists in Colorado have proposed a constitutional amendment that would grant political leaders emergency powers to suspend the state's independent redistricting commission and redraw congressional lines if other states engage in extreme partisan gerrymandering.
The measure, dubbed the Defensive Gerrymander Guard Act, would allow the governor or a majority in both houses of the legislature to invoke these new powers "if substantial evidence exists that one or more states have enacted congressional redistricting plans that result in severe partisan imbalance, voter disenfranchisement, or a significant deviation from proportional representation norms."
After making such a determination, the governor would then convene a special panel, which would draw new maps that incorporate a "proportional response to national redistricting imbalances."
The proposal was first put forth on a Reddit message board by a small group of Coloradans who told Colorado Newsline that they have not discussed their idea with Democratic lawmakers. One acknowledged the serious obstacles they face but said they'd already seen an outpouring of support.
"The amount of interest and encouragement we've gotten, even without much formal political or organizing experience, is honestly astounding," Jorge Rodriguez told the outlet. "We know this is going to be a long process."
Chief among those obstacles is obtaining a sufficient number of voter signatures to qualify for the ballot. Organizers would need to collect almost 125,000 signatures, including those of at least 2% of registered voters in each of Colorado's 35 state Senate districts. The amendment would then need to earn the backing of 55% of voters to become law.
MD Redistricting
Gov. Wes Moore discussed the possibility that he and fellow Democrats in the legislature might seek to redraw Maryland's congressional map in a new interview with WBAL, saying that "all options are on the table about how we respond" to mid-decade Republican gerrymandering.
That stance echoes earlier comments from Moore aides, but it appears to be the first time that the governor himself has spoken out on the issue. However, he still has not directly addressed a proposal by Democratic lawmakers to revisit Maryland's map if Republicans in Texas and elsewhere don't stand down.
IN Redistricting
Indiana Republicans have stubbornly refused Donald Trump's demands that they further gerrymander their congressional map—even rejecting a personal embassy by JD Vance—but Punchbowl now reports that Hoosier lawmakers have been invited to visit the White House on Aug. 26.
A spokesperson for the Senate GOP told the Indianapolis Star that redistricting "was not listed as a topic of discussion in the invitation," but rather that the purpose of the meeting was to "discuss President Trump's agenda." Trump, of course, has made mid-decade gerrymandering a centerpiece of his agenda.
Republican legislators, however, continue to come out in opposition to any redraw, with at least five on record so far. Politico reports, though, that many plan to attend the White House get-together.
NJ Redistricting
Democratic leaders in the New Jersey legislature declined to respond to a new inquiry from Politico's Matt Friedman about whether they might pursue a mid-decade redraw of their congressional map, though one prominent lawmaker says he's against the idea.
"I'm opposed to it. I know there's a lot of Democrats out there who say [the Republicans] playing by one set of rules, we're playing by the other," state Sen. Vin Gopal told Friedman. "I'm still in that group that believes in democracy, rule of law and fairness."
"I strongly believe that two wrongs don't make a right," he added. Few Democratic lawmakers anywhere in the country, however, have expressed opinions similar to Gopal's, with California Assemblyman Alex Lee a rare example.
TX Redistricting
As he had pledged, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott immediately called a new special session of the legislature on Friday after Republican leaders adjourned the previous session almost a week early in the face of an ongoing walkout by state House Democrats.
Late last week, quorum-busting Democrats signaled they would soon return home, saying they'd do so after the first special session was adjourned and after their counterparts in California had unveiled their new proposal to counter Texas' planned gerrymander.
Senate
TX-Sen
A new public poll is the first ever to show Texas Sen. John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton in next March's Republican primary, but even Cornyn's allies aren't acting like that's the case.
The survey, from Emerson College, finds Cornyn with a tiny 30-29 edge, with a 37% plurality undecided. Both candidates are well below the majority of the vote they'd need to avert a runoff.
A few days earlier, though, Punchbowl News reported that Cornyn's backers at the Senate Leadership Fund told donors the incumbent remained far behind Paxton. In a presentation, the super PAC said Paxton's lead had averaged 17 points in 13 polls released in the first six months of the year, which more or less corresponds with publicly available data.
Emerson also finds Paxton with a 46-41 advantage over former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in a hypothetical general election, which is only slightly smaller than the 45-38 lead Cornyn posts.
SLF, though, also strenuously disagrees with this finding. The group informed donors that, while Cornyn leads Allred by an average of 6 points, Paxton trails by 1.
It also predicted that Republicans could bear a more literal cost if primary voters opt for Paxton over the incumbent. SLF said that it would take between $200 million and $250 million to ensure Paxton wins the general election, compared to "just" $25 million to $70 million to aid Cornyn in a primary.
Allred, who was the Democratic nominee last year for Texas' other Senate seat, is currently his party's only well-known contender. Emerson shows him taking 58% as retired astronaut Terry Virts and two others barely register.
Several other Lone Star Democrats, however, have talked about running for Senate, and one rising star may make up his mind before too long.
State Rep. James Talarico, who was not included in Emerson's survey, is continuing to generate national attention as he contemplates whether to run for the Senate. Talarico, who left the state as part of an effort to deny Republicans the quorum they need to pass a new gerrymander, told the New York Times last week he'd decide after the walkout concludes.
Governors
MN-Gov
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is "privately wavering" about whether to seek a third term after previously sounding likely to run again, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Walz, the paper writes, was deeply affected by the murder of state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, in June. The two Minnesota elected officials were close both politically and personally, and Walz reportedly hoped Hortman could succeed him as governor.
MPR reported last month that Walz was "inclined to wait" until after the Minnesota State Fair ends on Sept. 1 to decide about another run. Should he opt out, a large number of Democrats would be eager to run in his stead.
OR-Gov
State House Minority Leader Christine Drazan is doing nothing to tamp down on speculation that she could pursue a rematch against Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, the Democrat who beat her in a close three-way race in 2022.
Drazan, writes Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss, recently disclosed that she'd paid a GOP pollster $55,000 for its services, which Jaquiss calls "the clearest sign yet" she's looking at running again. Drazan, when asked about this unreleased survey, said only that she was focused on the upcoming special session of the legislature and did not address next year's race.
Drazan, whose first stint as minority leader began in 2019, was one of the more prominent Republicans in the Beaver State when she decided to run to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown for an office the GOP last won in 1982.
She waged a serious campaign to break that long losing streak in a race that featured Kotek and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a conservative Democrat-turned-independent whom Democrats feared would disproportionately hurt her old party. Kotek, however, ultimately beat Drazan 47-44, with Johnson securing 9%.
Drazan, though, wasn't done with state politics: She successfully campaigned to return to the state House last year, and her caucus made her minority leader once again.
No major Republicans are currently challenging Kotek for reelection. Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell announced in April, but her candidacy has attracted little attention thus far.
VT-Gov
Republican Gov. Phil Scott has yet to say if he'll seek a sixth two-year term leading Vermont, and if his history is any guide, we won't get any announcement until well into next year.
Shaun Robinson of VT Digger notes that Scott "has made a habit in years past" of waiting to reveal his plans in even-numbered years after the legislature wraps up work, which usually happens in May. The governor stuck to this routine last year when he announced he'd run again just three weeks before the candidate filing deadline.
No prominent Democrats wound up challenging Scott, who has posted high approval ratings throughout his tenure, and he went on to turn back a little-known opponent in a 73-22 landslide even as Kamala Harris carried the state 64-32.
While other Republicans would almost certainly struggle to replicate Scott's massive crossover appeal, the party's bench isn't quite as bare as it was throughout most of his tenure.
Republican John Rodgers, who previously served in the state Senate as a Democrat, unexpectedly unseated Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman last year, a win that came as legislative Republicans ended Democratic supermajorities in both chambers.
Rodgers told Robinson last week that he plans to seek reelection, saying, "I'm excited about staying in the position and continuing my work." If Scott were to step aside, though, Rodgers would almost certainly get plenty of calls about running to replace him.
On the Democratic side, Robinson mentions Attorney General Charity Clark and Treasurer Mike Pieciak as possible candidates for governor. Clark said she would be on the ballot next year, but she didn't say what post she might seek. Pieciak's team, likewise, said he "certainly is thinking about his options for the next cycle, but has not made any decisions."
There's no indication, though, that Scott would face much of a challenge if he runs again. If he were to secure and serve out another term, Scott would replace Democrat Howard Dean as the longest-tenured governor in state history.
WI-Gov
A new poll shows Rep. Tom Tiffany with a huge lead in the Republican primary for governor of Wisconsin—a race he has yet to decide if he'll enter.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates finds Tiffany outpacing Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann 40-13, with wealthy businessman Bill Berrien at 10%. Neither the poll nor the accompanying writeup by the far-right Daily Caller mentioned a client, though the memo was quite friendly to Tiffany.
Fabrizio, which touted the congressman's "strong record," predicted Tiffany could easily win the nod if conservative voters learn more about him—or if Donald Trump endorses him. There was no mention, however, of any general election numbers.
Schoemann and Berrien began running for governor before Democratic incumbent Tony Evers announced last month that he would not seek a third term. Tiffany, for his part, has said he'll decide by late September if he'll join them.
House
TX-28
A federal judge on Thursday delayed Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar's trial on federal corruption charges, which was supposed to begin next month, until April 6—more than a month after Texas' congressional primaries.
The judge also agreed to a request from the Department of Justice to dismiss two of the 14 charges against Cuellar, which alleged he and his wife had improperly acted as foreign agents. Cuellar remains under indictment for allegedly accepting bribes to aid the government of Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank.
Cuellar, who has maintained his innocence, is defending Texas' 28th District, a longtime Democratic constituency in the Rio Grande Valley that has swung hard to the right in recent years. The GOP's proposed new gerrymander would extend Donald Trump's 2024 margin of victory from 53-46 to 55-44.
Mayors & County Leaders
New Orleans, LA Mayor
A federal grand jury indicted New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell on Friday, following a years-long corruption investigation. Cantrell, a Democrat who cannot seek reelection this year due to term limits, is the first New Orleans mayor to be criminally charged while in office.
Cantrell is accused of misusing city resources and lying to federal officials to carry on and conceal an affair with Jeffrey Vappie, a member of her protection unit who was separately charged last year. The indictment claims, among other things, that the couple "orchestrated out-of-state trips to maximize their opportunities to engage in personal activities."
Three prominent Democrats are running to replace Cantrell, who already sported poor approval numbers, in the Oct. 11 contest to lead this loyally blue city: City Council members Helena Moreno and Oliver Thomas, and state Sen. Royce Duplessis. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a Nov. 15 runoff.
Correction: This piece originally said that California Democrat Dave Min flipped the 47th Congressional District in 2024. He successfully defended the district, which had been held by fellow Democrat Katie Porter.
The new proposed California congressional district map is so much prettier than the current one!
One correction: Dave Min (CA-47) did not flip his district. It was previously held by Katie Porter (D-CA) who gave it up to run for Senator. The 2024 flip in Orange County was in CA-45, which went from Michelle Steel (R-CA) to Derek Tran (D).
Precisely the Morning Digest I was hoping to see!
Yes, I would have loved to hear more about the exact provenance of the map and the input considered by the mapmakers – such as why CA-22 wasn’t made more Blue at no meaningful risk to Zoe Lofgren’s CA-18. This seems a mistake, as far more could have been done to endanger David Valadao’s (R) reelection.
But as the Digest makes clear, eve nthe DownBallot was unable to extract clear answers. Perhaps we’ll find out a bit more in the coming days?