Morning Digest: Kansas Democrat may run for Senate if GOP gerrymanders her seat

Rep. Sharice Davids would be the most prominent Democrat to run in a state where Republicans haven't lost a Senate race in nearly a century

Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas (credit: Sharice Davids Facebook)

Leading Off

KS Redistricting, KS-Sen

The Republican supermajority in the Kansas legislature is getting ready to hold a special session to gerrymander Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids’ 3rd Congressional District, Punchbowl News reports. Davids, though, is now signaling that such a remap could motivate her to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

Punchbowl writes that if GOP mapmakers transform her light blue seat in the Kansas City suburbs into a heavily Republican bastion, Davids "could choose to challenge" Sen. Roger Marshall.

Morning Digest: Kansas Republicans want to gerrymander. They have a few problems.

While the congresswoman doesn’t appear to have publicly discussed the idea before, her team notably included this portion of Punchbowl’s article in their statement blasting Sunflower State Republicans’ machinations.

For the GOP to pass a new map in time for next year’s elections, two-thirds of the members of each chamber must vote to hold a special session. This would require near-unanimity among Republicans, who hold supermajorities in both the Senate and House—something that party leaders have not always been able to count on.

The GOP would again need two-thirds supermajorities to pass a new map over Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto. Marshall, though, questioned if they’d be able to pull this off.

"It’s, again, easier said than done," he told reporters on Monday. "Do they have enough for a veto-proof majority? … So I think it would be quite an accomplishment to get that done."

If Republicans approve a new map over Kelly’s opposition, though, they’d need to persuade the state Supreme Court to side with them in an all-but-certain lawsuit. The body greenlit the GOP’s previous attempt to gerrymander Davids’ 3rd District in 2022 in a closely divided 4-3 vote, but one of the justices who signed onto the majority opinion has since been replaced with a new Kelly appointee.

If Republicans ultimately implement a new map that leaves Davids without a winnable House seat, she’d face a challenging task if she decides to take on Marshall statewide.

Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, and the GOP hasn’t come close to losing control of either seat in over five decades: The last time a Republican failed to win by double digits was 1974, when Sen. Bob Dole held on 51-49 against an opponent who took advantage of voter outrage over the Watergate scandal.

Democrats hoped they’d finally break this long streak in 2020 when Marshall, who was a congressman at the time, competed against state Sen. Barbara Bollier, a longtime Republican who had recently switched parties. Marshall, though, prevailed 53-42 as Donald Trump was carrying the state by a wider 56-41 spread; Trump went on to win Kansas again by a comparable margin last year.

Davids, whose 3rd District favored Kamala Harris 51-47 in 2024, has never had to win on such red turf before, but she’s no stranger to tough elections.

Davids, who is a former MMA fighter, flipped a previous version of this seat during the 2018 blue wave by unseating GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, a victory that made her both the state’s first LGBTQ representative and one of the first two Native American women ever elected to Congress.

The Democrat decisively won in 2022 despite a previous Republican attempt to gerrymander her out of her seat, and major GOP groups didn’t spend a dollar against her last year.

Davids would also be the most prominent Democrat to oppose Marshall, a hardliner who voted against recognizing Joe Biden’s win hours after the Jan. 6 attack. The senator currently faces two notable Democratic foes: former Biden administration official Christy Davis and immigration attorney Anne Parelkar.

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Election Recaps

AZ-07

Democrat Adelita Grijalva easily won Tuesday’s special election in Arizona’s 7th District to succeed her late father, longtime Rep. Raul Grijalva, though her final margin of victory may not be known for at least a few days.

Grijalva posted a 69-30 lead Wednesday morning as the Associated Press estimated that 87% of the vote had been tallied. According to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried this Tucson-based district by a 60-38 margin.

Grijalva will be the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress.

Special Elections

Republican Jason Dickerson defeated Democrat Debra Shigley 61-39 in Tuesday’s runoff for Georgia’s 21st Senate District. Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried this Alpharetta-based district 67-33 last year, so Shigley’s showing represents an 11-point overperformance on Kamala Harris’ margin.

Senate

MA-Sen

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton is "seriously considering" opposing Sen. Ed Markey in next September’s Democratic primary, the Boston Globe reported on Tuesday.

The New York Times published a separate piece hours later saying that Moulton has been hiring people for his possible statewide effort, and that his "potential campaign kickoff is expected in early October."

Moulton, 46, very much did not rule anything out when the Globe asked him about his interest in challenging the 79-year-old incumbent.

"While I continue to look at the best options to represent Massachusetts moving forward, I have not yet made a decision about running for U.S. Senate," the congressman said.

Moulton’s public deliberations come a week after fellow Rep. Jake Auchincloss announced that he would not take on Markey next year. Politico also reported last week that there was "speculation" Moulton could run instead, though he avoided saying much before now.

Moulton, who infuriated progressives last year with his comments about transgender people, currently faces intraparty opposition in the 6th Congressional District from software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck, who is transgender.

Markey, for his part, has dismissed concerns that his age could hamper his ability to do his job. The incumbent, who declared last year that "[i]t’s not your age, it’s the age of your ideas," recently told the Globe that his battles against Donald Trump have made him "the most energized I’ve ever been."

Governors

AK-Gov

Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson filed paperwork with the state this week to seek an unidentified office next year, and KTUU reports there’s speculation he could soon become the latest Republican to join the already-packed governor’s race.

Bronson was narrowly elected in 2021 to lead Alaska’s largest city, and his three years in office were defined by decisions like shutting off the city’s water fluoridation program and getting into ugly fights with the Assembly’s progressive majority. (Anchorage is the rare major American city where terms last an odd number of years.)

Bronson lost reelection last year 54-46 against Suzanne LaFrance, a Democratic-backed independent, and he went on to take a post in Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s administration as head of Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport. Bronson resigned earlier in September after just seven months on the job, a departure that intensified talk that he could run to replace the termed-out governor.

CA-Gov

Former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon announced Tuesday that he was joining the busy contest to succeed termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, a fellow California Democrat. The candidate began his effort with a call to make the state "the undisputed leader on Bitcoin."

​​Calderon, who hails from an influential and controversial political family in Southern California—two of his uncles pled guilty on corruption charges in 2016—became the first millennial elected to the legislature in 2012. ​​Calderon was elevated to the majority leader post in 2016 but decided not to seek reelection in 2020.

The former assemblymember, who turns 40 next month, launched his new campaign by calling for "a ​​new generation of leadership." He further used his announcement video to call himself a Democrat who doesn’t "take marching orders from anyone."

Calderon had not previously shown any obvious interest in competing in an expensive gubernatorial contest where his rivals have enjoyed a months-long—or even years-long—head start. All the candidates will compete in the June 2 top-two primary, and the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to next November’s general election.

WI-Gov

Rep. Tom Tiffany on Tuesday became the most prominent Wisconsin Republican to announce a campaign to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in this perennial swing state.

Tiffany, a former state legislator from northwest Wisconsin who won his conservative U.S. House seat in a 2020 special election, has spent his five years in Congress as an ardent hardliner.

Tiffany joined the majority of his party in voting against recognizing Joe Biden’s win hours after the Jan. 6 riot. But the congressman, who belongs to the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, has also taken some stances even further to the right of most of his fellow Republicans.

In 2020, he was one of only 18 members to oppose a resolution condemning QAnon, a move he said he made in protest to a bill he saw as "purely political posturing." Tiffany was also one of 14 representatives to vote against establishing Juneteenth as a national holiday the following year.

The congressman’s biggest vulnerability, though, may be his longtime opposition to abortion rights. Tiffany, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel highlighted earlier this month, backed unsuccessful bills in 2022 and 2023 that would have banned abortion after just six weeks with few exceptions.

"If someone who’s got a clear record over the course of his legislative and congressional career, that could completely bring the issue back to the forefront of people’s minds if it appears Tom’s going to push for some sort of six-week ban," an unnamed high-level Republican told the paper.

More GOP sources predicted that Tiffany could cause problems for GOP candidates for the legislature at a time when Democrats are hoping to flip one or both chambers for the first time in over a decade, as well as for vulnerable members of the state’s delegation.

"They will be putting distance on that particular issue between them and Tom if he’s the nominee, just because it’s an untenable position for a lot of people in these really tight seats," one person told the Journal Sentinel.

Tiffany, for his part, tried to insulate himself from attacks over reproductive rights. He told conservative radio host Dan O’Donnell on Tuesday that he’d preserve the state’s current law, which allows abortions through the first 20 weeks of a pregnancy.

Tiffany faces wealthy businessman Bill Berrien and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann in next August’s primary. Democrats also have a busy primary ahead of what will be a closely watched general election.

Berrien began running ads back in July touting himself as an ardent Donald Trump ally, though he’s faced unwelcome scrutiny for his $30,000 donation to aid Nikki Haley’s effort to stop Trump in the 2024 GOP primary. Berrien drew unwanted headlines of a different sort this week after the Journal Sentinel reported he’d followed numerous sexually explicit online publications.

Schoemann, for his part, has focused on his primary foes’ backgrounds to make his case that Republicans need to try something different.

"No congressman has won the race for governor in Wisconsin since 1930," he recently told WISN. Schoemann went on to allude to wealthy businessman Tim Michels, who lost to Evers in 2022, saying, "The millionaire thing hasn’t worked for us lately. It’s not a winning formula, so let’s go with what works."

House

IA-02

State Rep. Shannon Lundgren announced Tuesday that she was entering the race to succeed Rep. Ashley Hinson, a fellow Iowa Republican who is leaving the 2nd District to run for the Senate.

Lundgren launched her campaign by highlighting how she backed Donald Trump in the summer of 2015, a time when few Republicans believed he had any chance to take the White House. Lundgren, who won a seat in the legislature the next year by flipping a Democratic-held seat, also touted how she "proudly stood with" Trump in last year’s presidential primary.

Lundgren joins former Rep. Rod Blum, state Sen. Charlie McClintock, and former state Rep. Joe Mitchell in next year’s primary. Democrats also have a competitive nomination contest in a constituency in northeastern Iowa that Trump carried 54-44 last year.

MI-13

A trio of prominent Democrats in the Detroit area announced Tuesday that they were backing state Rep. Donavan McKinney’s primary campaign against Rep. Shri Thanedar: Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and former Rep. Brenda Lawrence.

The group highlighted how Thanedar’s victory in 2022 left the city without a Black representative in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s, and that a victory for McKinney next year would restore African American representation to the Motor City. (Thanedar is Indian American, while Detroit’s other House member, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)

"There is something missing in Congress, not having Black leadership from Detroit," Gilchrist, who is competing in the competitive primary for governor, told the crowd at a news conference. "The thing about a hole is we can fill it."

Evans and Lawrence, who represented much of this constituency under the last map, likewise argued that Thanedar is doing a poor job serving Michigan’s 13th District.

McKinney, who already had Tlaib’s support, got some welcome news earlier this month when former state Sen. Adam Hollier dropped out of the primary and began running for secretary of state instead. Hollier’s departure leaves McKinney as Thanedar’s only serious opponent in this safely Democratic constituency.

McKinney and his allies hope this strong show of support will deter any other would-be candidates from running. If no one else gets in, the incumbent will need to win a majority of the primary vote in next August’s primary.

WI-07

Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany’s decision to run for governor sets off what could be a packed GOP primary to succeed him in Wisconsin’s conservative 7th District in the northwestern part of the state.

While this area was Democratic-leaning territory well into the early 21st century, Donald Trump last year carried this constituency 61-38, according to calculations by The Downballot—his strongest showing in any of the state’s eight congressional districts. The primary is set for next August, and whoever wins the Republican nomination should have little trouble in the general election.

WisPolitics writes that several Republicans have informed the publication that they’re considering running. The most prominent member of this group is state Senate President Mary Felzkowski, who previously talked about running for governor if Tiffany didn’t seek a promotion.

State Rep. Calvin Callahan, state Sen. Rob Stafsholt, and Paul Schecklman, who leads an economic development organization, have also told WisPolitics they’re considering running. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel separately reports that state Reps. Chanz Green and Duke Tucker haven’t ruled it out, nor has state Sen. Romaine Quinn.

Mayors & County Leaders

Boston, MA Mayor

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu will not have any opponent on the Nov. 4 ballot, city election officials said Monday.

Wu, who will be the first mayor to run without general election opposition since Thomas Menino in 1997, just weeks ago seemed destined for an expensive fall battle against Josh Kraft. But Kraft, a fellow Democrat who poured millions of his own money into his campaign, dropped out earlier this month after the incumbent demolished him 72-23 in the city’s nonpartisan primary.

While it originally looked like Domingos DaRosa, an activist who took third place with 3% of the vote, might replace Kraft in the general election, that’s not what happened. DaRosa needed to win at least 3,000 votes in the primary to be able to take Kraft’s spot on the ballot, and a recount confirmed he’d fallen over 500 votes short.

Miami, FL Mayor

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday endorsed former City Manager Emilio Gonzalez in the packed Nov. 4 election to succeed termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez, their fellow Republican.

DeSantis used his statement to praise Gonzalez for successfully suing after Suarez and the City Commission tried to reschedule Miami’s municipal elections for 2026—a move that would have allowed the mayor to remain in office an extra year. The Miami Herald writes that this episode damaged the already "strained relationship" between DeSantis and Suarez.

The governor sided with ​​Gonzalez, who previously led U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under George W. Bush, in a 13-person race that almost certainly will continue on to a Dec. 9 runoff.

The officially nonpartisan contest includes several other Republicans, a pair of notable Democrats, and independent Xavier Suarez, a former Miami-Dade County commissioner who is the current mayor’s father. The older Suarez, who served as mayor during two separate stints in the 1980s and 1990s, previously identified as a Democrat and Republican at different points in his career, but is no longer affiliated with any party.

Editor’s Note: In the previous Digest, we incorrectly stated that former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez is a Republican. Suarez is a former Republican who no longer has a party affiliation.