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Kildere53's avatar

Question: Will there be enough time after the elections next month for Democrats in Maryland to redraw their congressional map? Maybe a strong victory for Prop 50 in California might be what it takes to finally get them off their asses and pass an 8-0 map.

And we definitely need to start pressuring the DNC into giving more money to the group trying to repeal Missouri's map. It really seems like the DNC is completely asleep at the wheel here regarding redistricting.

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Paleo's avatar

The filing date is late February, so they need to move soon unless they decide to push back the filing date. Primary is not till June.

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Danielle's avatar

You did not mention Mallory Macmorrow in your Mi senate money on hand. I believe she is leading in fundraising.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

She already announced her haul, I think it was lower that El-Sayed or Stevens, sadly.

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PollJunkie's avatar

There wasn't much difference between their fundraising.

"Fundraising reports set to be filed this week in Michigan will show Stevens is set for a financial dogfight: She raised $1.9 million in the third quarter, compared to progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s $1.75 million and media-friendly state Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s $1.7 million."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-democratic-insurgency-is-heating-up_n_68ebdca5e4b0116aa07cc05b

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Ah ok I misremembered. Still lower but not drastically so.

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PollJunkie's avatar

McMorrow*

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David Nir's avatar

During the period between the end of each quarter and the FEC filing deadline (usually the 15th), campaigns selectively release piecemeal fundraising numbers, which we publish on a daily basis. As another commenter noted, we hit McMorrow a while back—she got her numbers out right after Sept. 30.

After the deadline, we'll publish comprehensive charts for all notable House and Senate candidates.

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Tigercourse's avatar

In Los Angeles, I wonder why Caruso has said no to a rematch. It seems he would do better now than 4 years ago. Maybe he realized being Mayor is a terrible job.

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WhisperBox's avatar

He hasn't said no to a rematch. He's openly considering both the mayoral and gubernatorial contests.

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Tigercourse's avatar

Oops. I misunderstood "mooted".

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Zero Cool's avatar

Frankly, I think Caruso is more suited for being Mayor than Governor simply because he’s more worked up with what’s going on directly in LA vs CA at large.

He couldn’t even beat Karen Bass last time around in the mayoral race when Biden was still POTUS and it wasn’t even a narrow margin of loss. Running for Governor will be even harder for Caruso.

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Mike Johnson's avatar

Considering what's happened in LA in recent months, a former Republican (who probably still has some GOP connections/allies) is likely to face a hostile electorate.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Rick Caruso is a typical local chamber of commerce type of a Republican but not one who would be quick to jump on the MAGA bandwagon. I do not think he’s anything more than your typical pro-business influencer locally in PA.

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Angelica's avatar

My guess is Tim Ryan is delaying announcing for campaign finance reasons- once you are officially a candidate you're subject to different rules than an "exploratory committee"

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MPC's avatar

I really really despise Phil Berger and the rest of the NC GOP ass kissers. This ploy to steal another Congressional seat (using 2020 census data mid-decade) will blow up in their face.

NC voters aren't stupid. And thanks to Anderson Clayton's efforts, we'll retain Justice Anita Earls on the NC Supreme Court next year, flip all three GOP seats up in 2028 and put Berger back in the minority -- where he belongs.

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John Carr's avatar

Every time NC redistricting comes up, I can’t help but want to scream at the Democrats who thought it was a good idea to not give the governor a veto over redistricting or not agree to create an independent redistricting commission in the late 2000s when Republicans offered it. This is almost ALL self inflicted.

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MPC's avatar

Yes.

It's so insane how the power-hungry pricks like Berger, Tim Moore and SCONC wannabe judge Sarah Stevens pushed for the independent redistricting commission while in the minority but changed their tune once they got control.

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stevk's avatar

100%

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michaelflutist's avatar

How and why do you think it will change any win/loss results in the Democrats' favor? Redistricting almost never boomerangs to the disadvantage of the gerrymanderer, unless it's poorly done and results in a dummymander.

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MPC's avatar
Oct 14Edited

The maps are going to be out of date (assuming the GOP firm uses the 2020 data). And considering how next year is a midterm with TACO in the Oval Office, the potential is there for a dummymander or for GOP turnout to implode.

Of course, the federal courts COULD intercede and slap down Berger and Hall's 2025 maps (like how Justice Myers did in the Griffin/Riggs case) -- but I'm not holding my breath.

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michaelflutist's avatar

How much possibility of a dummymander is there, really? What PVIs or Trump percentages from last year are we talking about?

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John Carr's avatar

With the exception of NC-11 ( at Trump + 9), every Republican held district is at least around Trump + 14, which is just too Republican for Dems to win in a regularly scheduled election. The upper limit for an opposition party these days seems to be around +10 for the opposition party’s presidential candidate in the last election.

There were a couple double digit Trump seats Dems won in 2018 (NY-22, OK-05, and NY-11), but polarization has gotten even stronger since then.

So in short, these NC seats are pretty much in the sweet spot for Republicans where there is enough cushion to survive even a big wave, but they don’t waste unneeded votes.

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Guy Cohen's avatar

I could see them do something to NC-11, like cracking Buncombe county between it and another district like NC-14.

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PollJunkie's avatar

"New: Janet Mills tells

@bridgetbhc

she only plans to serve one term if elected to the Senate. She'd be 79 when sworn in"

https://x.com/MZanona/status/1978060587901845793

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Then what's the point? This is only the correct move if she's the only candidate that can beat Collins, and polling is at best inconclusive.

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Paleo's avatar

It would probably help her in the general.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

If she makes it to the general, sure, but first she needs to make the argument that she's the only candidate who can beat Collins.

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michaelflutist's avatar

She only has to show she's more likely to win, not that she's the only one who has any chance to do so.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

That would be the less hyperbolic version of what I'm saying, yes lol :)

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

That's the read I have. And Maine is a state with an older population.

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PollJunkie's avatar

5 years older than the average national age doesn't necessarily mean that they want the oldest ever 79 yr old freshman.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Maybe they do.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Ok let's be serious. I *can* imagine someone saying "I'll vote for Mills or Collins, no one else", but no one's going to say "I want a octogenarian freshman Senator because we have a higher median age"

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stevk's avatar

But in many cases those two statements are equivalent. It's not hard to imagine someone who likes Collins and dislikes MAGA Republicans voting for Collins over an unknown oyster farmer or bar owner but being very willing to vote for a known quantity like Mills over Collins. I'd guess there are quite a few of those voters in an older state like Maine...

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stevk's avatar

I think this is precisely the point. Use her to dislodge Collins and then we can backfill her with a younger candidate next cycle.

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MPC's avatar

Sigh.

I just hope whoever wins the Dem primary is able to beat the perpetually concerned Collins on 11/3/2026.

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Mark's avatar

If Collins can't be beaten in this environment, we're gonna have a very disappointing November 3, 2026.

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MPC's avatar

I do think the ranked choice voting in Maine helps us next year.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Is an endorsement for Mayor of Minneapolis by Congresswoman Omar beneficial, harmful or indifferent in producing more votes for a candidate?

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I would say it probably falls in the "expected" column

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Mark's avatar

Indifferent. Pretty good bet that any voter who would be persuadable based on what Omar said was already planning to vote for Fateh.

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ehstronghold's avatar

Vivek Ramaswamy who's likely the next governor showed up to a TPUSA event in Montana last week where he faced multiple questions by those in attendance why he is a Hindu when Jesus Christ is the one true savior. As The Bulwark's Tim Miller noted yesterday when he talked about this likely won't trip up Ramaswamy since the average Ohio GOP voter who'll show up in the primary next year doesn't care about this, but it's still disturbing.

https://www.tiktok.com/@thedotvault/video/7558969424485567775

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Paleo's avatar

I would think it would be a problem for some Trump voters in Ohio in the general. But their loyalty to Trump may overcome their prejudice.

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Henrik's avatar

There is that small but not insignificant group on the right that dislikes JD Vance because Usha is Hindu after all

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Absentee Boater's avatar

It’s to be expected at this point. No one who would actually care about his faith will have any trouble pulling the lever next to the (R) candidate next year.

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Mike Johnson's avatar

We should ask Mitt Romney how true that is.

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Buckeye73's avatar

As someone who grew up in rural Ohio, I can say that the attitudes expressed in this video are depressingly common in rural and small town America. This is why we are getting killed in rural America and why it would be so difficult to gain ground there Of course, GOP members of minority groups that are the targets of GOP bigotry such as Vivek will not only take abuse like this, they will go back for a second helping.

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PollJunkie's avatar

🎯 you should have listened to his interview with Ann Coulter. He is pathetic.

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PollJunkie's avatar

What Vivek keeps saying about Hinduism is totally false. Although I was raised Hindu and no longer observe the religion, Hinduism is certainly not monotheistic nor does it have 330 million gods, and does not fall within the Judeo-Christian tradition/thought, despite his repeated claims on the campaign trail since 2023. He is just another conservative Hindu attempting to align himself with a radical Christian nationalist MAGA wing. In doing so, he is twisting the religion for political gain and his claims seem to stem from a cultural identity crisis—a desperate attempt to reconcile his heritage with the values of an illiberal political movement that fundamentally rejects it.

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Buckeye73's avatar

This reminds me of when Nikki Haley was called a raghead by a GOP state senator and stayed silent in fear of offending the racist Chuds who voted in GOP primaries when she first ran for governor of South Carolina.

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PollJunkie's avatar

She doesn't know why the South seceded, so this doesn't surprise me.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Hinduism is part of an entirely different tradition than Judaism, but I personally knew and used to be in a relationship with a monotheistic Hindu. The Arya Samaj sect is monotheistic.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Yeah, I know about the Arya Samaj, but Vivek is not a follower of that sect. It’s a small sect too. What he is deliberately conflating with monotheism is the henotheistic and monist philosophies of Hinduism.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Ok, I don't mean to contest your analysis of what he's doing.

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PollJunkie's avatar

I was not arguing, just saying.

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michaelflutist's avatar

You already got an OK from me; nothing is happening. :-)

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PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

Let’s not assume he’s going to win - Tim Ryan has a real shot.

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DM's avatar

My 99 year old Mom just voted yes on Prop 50. I wasn't sure we would get this yes vote, since a month ago she went on hospice, and was expected to live a few days to 2 weeks.

She commented that she figured this was her last vote, and as someone who grew up during WWII, she didn't expect to ever have to cast a vote against fascism.

I'm still waiting for my ballot to arrive.

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David Nir's avatar

That's incredible. Our hearts go out to you, your mother, and your family.

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DM's avatar

Thank you.

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stevk's avatar

99 years is quite a life...she must have some stories to tell...

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Mark's avatar

Great to hear. I hope she hangs in there long enough to see the outcome.

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Brad Warren's avatar

*hug*

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michaelflutist's avatar

No-one from that generation expected to have to fight fascism again. I hope it gives her - and you - some consolation that she was able to take this vote.

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PollJunkie's avatar

"The DSCC and Janet Mills have formed a joint fundraising committee together.

It is called “Maine Senate Victory 2026”

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00923177/1919061/"

https://x.com/reesejgorman/status/1978101207253008393 of NOTUS

"Ooo interesting…

@Tim_Walz

is using his massive list to give a boost to Mills during her launch, which begs the question: how much of her launch raise can be attributed to grassroots enthusiasm vs. just being an insider with connections?"

https://x.com/bhaviklathia/status/1978143661549383804

What happened to "officially neutral"? The establishment will need to be beaten again and again until they are no longer the establishment. It's the only solution. Someone or the other, maybe AOC or Tish James, will need to take out Schumer.

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Miguel Parreno's avatar

They're only "neutral" if they're progressives. If it's a centrist, they'll happily force them down the voters' throats.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Between this and Haley Stevens (though slightly less blatant in that case), they really have not learned the right lessons about candidate favoritism.

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alienalias's avatar

Just to distinguish entities, the DNC (which focuses on presidentials and supporting state parties in general) professes to be "officially neutral" much more than the DSCC, which actively intervenes a ton. A JFC is pretty wild to me though.

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Miguel Parreno's avatar

Well, hopefully Mainers will send Schumer a message. I'm going to donate $5 to Graham right now.

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Marliss Desens's avatar

As long as he doesn't turn out to be another John Fetterman. I get nervous about the media emphasis on "compelling story."

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Paleo's avatar

The DSCC should stay the hell out of it. Mills is not an incumbent and the last thing Democratic voters need is to have the loser Washington Democratic establishment trying to impose their choice on Maine primary voters.

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PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

If I get another fundraising text from Mills today, I might max out to Platner. I have got at least 10 today - just stop Janet.

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PollJunkie's avatar

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1978099575161270721

"In a new CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly 60% of Americans say the Republican Party is “too extreme,” vs 46% who say the same about Democrats"

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Mark's avatar

The spread wasn't as big, but I remember in last year's exit polls that voters said Trump was more extreme than Harris....and then they voted for the more extreme guy.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

That’s not true.

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Mark's avatar

Donald Trump: National exit polling from ABC News found that 55% of voters described Trump's views as "too extreme". CBS News also noted that more voters considered Trump's views to be extreme than Harris's.

Kamala Harris: The same ABC News poll showed that 46% of voters believed Harris's views were "too extreme"

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PollJunkie's avatar

"‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat

Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape."

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/14/private-chat-among-young-gop-club-members-00592146

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Alex Hupp's avatar

Absolutely vile. Unfortunately, I'd be shocked if any actual repercussions result from this - too many power players are either too scared or already share similar beliefs

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Guy Cohen's avatar

Stefanik has already condemned the chat, as has the NY GOP Senate leader.

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Alex Hupp's avatar

I'm sure they received a stern slap on the wrist

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PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

Plenty of pics of her with these scumbags and Lawler. Sean Casten is posting the pics on BlueSky

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PollJunkie's avatar

Bobby Walker, the current leader of the New York State Young Republicans, apologized but told Politico he thinks portions of texts "may have been altered, taken out of context, or otherwise manipulated" and that the "private exchanges were obtained and released in a way clearly intended to inflict harm."

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PollJunkie's avatar

This is far worse than anything said in a college group chat, and the guy who said it could become the AG of Virginia. I refuse to join the pearl clutching when powerful people call for political violence. - JD Vance

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michaelflutist's avatar

No-one should be surprised. Scared, though.

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Guy Cohen's avatar

We should not be scared. We beat bullies and bigots by standing up to them, not being afraid of them

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michaelflutist's avatar

You're Jewish, right? Gas chambers don't scare you?

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Guy Cohen's avatar

Of course, but that doesn’t mean we should live in fear. Rather that we should fight to stop it from being a reality.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Why did anyone think I was calling for not fighting? It's very frustrating. No-one remembers anything I said like yesterday?

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Guy Cohen's avatar

It’s just that by saying we should be scared implied powerlessness at the situation.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Being scared achieves nothing and just leads to frustration and despair. It's time to get angry.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I hope you don't mean to scold me for being scared of Nazis. One can be scared and angry at the same time.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

No nothing at all like that. I just grow exhausted of doomscrolling and doomposting and seeing to much despair online, when there are still very much resources and opportunities very much available for us. Fear is very much a real and valid emotion. But so are anger, hope and disgust. We should be trying to balance and leverage all of them more productively.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Naturally.

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MPC's avatar

Jay Jones needs to tie this scandal around AG Jason Miyares' neck and bludgeon him with it.

To hell with taking the high road.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

I don't think Miyares has anything to do with this group chat, so idk how effective that would be.

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MPC's avatar

He's said some of the same stuff back in 2021. Bring it back and tie it to this scandal.

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stevk's avatar

If there's one thing we've learned from the Republicans (other than the insanity of unilaterally disarming on redistricting) it's that a politician doesn't have to be directly connected to a scandal for us to tie it around their necks.

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Ben F.'s avatar

Right. The VA reps are absolutely convinced that Spanberger is directly responsible for Jones's own words. (I don't get it, except to say that they truly are under a delusional bubble such that they think Sears actually won that debate.)

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Buckeye73's avatar

The flagrant antisemitism expressed in these messages point to the fact that the GOP is getting just as split on the forbidden issue as the Democrats currently are. Younger GOP supporters are increasingly flagrant anti-Semitic Nationalists who are opposed to the Evangelical unwavering support for Israel. It's becoming a nasty fight where there really aren't any good guys in the emerging GOP Civil War over this issue.

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Amon Greycastle's avatar

Correct. Trump papers over the issue. But once he's out of the picture, this will become an ugly schism in the R base, and the anti-Semitic wing is ascendant.

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Buckeye73's avatar

This is true. The Evangelical wing is aging and shrinking.

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the lurking ecologist's avatar

Is that true? Seems like the evangelical wing is expanding on the Christian nationalist wave, which is growing and attracting young, mostly white men.

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PPTPW (NST4MSU)'s avatar

The Evangelical support is also based solely on their biblical interpretations - it’s not really in support of Jews but their own weird beliefs.

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michaelflutist's avatar

To a large degree.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Well, wanting Jews to mass convert or perish for the rapture is peak antisemitism.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Strictly speaking, it's anti-Judaism because it's based on religious animus and not racism, but I don't think there's any reason to believe that there aren't some evangelicals who have a sincere affection for Israel. They're not monolithic.

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Henrik's avatar

“I can’t wait for the evangelicals to be less influential in the GOP.”

*monkeys paw curls*

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Paleo's avatar

If you love Trump you’ll love Hitler. And vice versa.

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Buckeye73's avatar

When people show you who they are, believe them.

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Julius Zinn's avatar

Former Illinois state house speaker Mike Madigan, the longest serving legislative leader in American history, has reported to prison in West Virginia on bribery and wire fraud charges. This case interests me as I have personal connections in both Illinois and West Virginia

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PollJunkie's avatar

"A third of Americans believe Trump’s rise to power is part of God’s plan as he leans further into MAGA evangelicalism

President especially enjoys sweeping approval ratings and strong support from white evangelicals, who make up a significant part of his MAGA base, new polling shows"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-evangelical-voters-maga-b2842752.html

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MPC's avatar

While the other 2/3s of Americans strongly disapprove and see his actions as horrific and anti-American.

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PollJunkie's avatar

??No

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JanusIanitos's avatar

That 1/3 of the country with those views is a good proxy for the portion of the country that will support him no matter what. A bit over half of the conservative part of the electorate.

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Paleo's avatar

The electorate is 65% conservative?

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JanusIanitos's avatar

"A bit over" is an indication that it's a rough approximation because I didn't feel like calculating the percentage of ~0.5 that ~0.33 represents.

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Paleo's avatar

Very rough.

As of 2024, 37% of Americans identified as conservative, 34% as moderate, and 25% as liberal, according to an annual average compiled by Gallup.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Those moderates are not predominantly truly moderate. A bunch of them will consistently vote left and a different bunch will consistently vote right. And the remainder will lean towards one direction or another. I was accounting for that.

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alienalias's avatar

AZ has completed its certification of Grijalva's special election and and is transmitting it to the House clerk today, removing the last vestige of supposed obstacles to adding her to the rolls. The state AG is threatening a lawsuit.

https://mcusercontent.com/cc1fad182b6d6f8b1e352e206/files/1fb1e59b-bcdd-d322-4132-fc159cb2f13a/2025_10_14_Demand_Letter_to_Speaker_Johnson.pdf

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MPC's avatar

Mayes is such a badass. She shouldn't have to send a terse letter to Mike Johnson, but that's on him unwilling to do his fucking job.

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Brad Warren's avatar

I hope she's re-elected by a *lot* more than 280 votes statewide!

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Paleo's avatar

Grijalva should sue as well.

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alienalias's avatar

Would assume it would be a joint filing. Maybe Grijalva files in DC and Mayes files in state but I wouldn't know how that helps really.

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