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Paleo's avatar

The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls found Donald Trump with a six-point advantage in Arizona, and Kamala Harris with a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/times-siena-arizona-pennsylvania-polls.html

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DiesIrae's avatar

I'll take it.

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Jonathan's avatar

That's quite the spread but if I had to choose, I'm obviously choosing Pennsylvania; I'm still betting that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going to vote as a block(with closer to larger margin in this order; Wisc>Penn>Mich)

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DiesIrae's avatar

Another interesting thing here: Harris isn't outrunning Casey. Harris +4, Casey +4. Convergence at last...

(This is bullish for Harris IMO. Casey is an institution and if Harris is matching his numbers, that's a good sign).

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Six point lead for Trump ehh? Do you think Siena believes that poll is accurate?

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Jonathan's avatar

Seems awful bullish imo

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Mark's avatar

Siena has now found a double-digit spread in Florida and a six-point spread in Arizona. It could be that they're way off or it could be that Siena's model is picking up on a shift to Trump among Hispanics that other pollsters are not.

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Jonathan's avatar

It would almost have to be Hispanic men

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benamery21's avatar

Reading their methodology, it seems tailor-made for selecting a conservatively skewed Hispanic sample.

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DiesIrae's avatar

But their Hispanic sample is Harris +20. In this particular poll, it's the white vote that is causing a mid-size Trump lead.

(In their earlier Trump+5 in AZ, it was the Hispanic sample. Funny how they get the same topline with entirely different splits).

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benamery21's avatar

D+20 Hispanic vote is skewed right in AZ for a Presidential election. Santa Cruz County voted D+35 last time and it’s 1/7th Non-Hispanic White.

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mejdownballot's avatar

how so?

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DM's avatar

What isn't often acknowledged is that racism isn't limited to white people. In Phoenix, in areas that are Latino and Black, there is friction. I personally know some Latino neighbors in Arizona who voted for Biden who won't vote for Harris.

This isn't limited to Arizona by any means. In LA, the Kevin DeLeon controversy involved Latinos being anti black, but also anti other Latino groups.

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Jonathan's avatar

I am still not convinced that they vote for Trump(but I get your point)

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michaelflutist's avatar

The thing is, there were people saying similar things about Latino attitudes toward Obama, yet he got huge support from Latinos.

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DM's avatar

And Obama didn't win Arizona either time, although Arizona has become more Democratic since 2012, and in 2008 an Arizonan was in the race.

Biden only won my 10K votes

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michaelflutist's avatar

Correct. But the general point is the same.

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James Trout's avatar

Obama is male, Harris is female though.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Machismo could play a role. I again feel disconnected from how anyone can see a man who inherited 400 million dollars from daddy and has never stopped whining about how hard his life is for him to be "macho" but some people just really hate the idea of women and women of color running anything.

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Oceanblaze17's avatar

I wonder who the Trump-Gallego voters are.

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Jonathan's avatar

Me too; Hispanic men???

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Mark's avatar

Probably

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benamery21's avatar

While I’m sure Hispanic male Trump voters are probably more likely to vote for Gallego than white male Trump voters, given the relative proportions the demographics among Trump voters, I’d bet a fair amount that white male Trump voters voting for Gallego outnumber their Hispanic male counterparts. There are an order of magnitude more white Trump voters than Hispanic Trump voters in AZ.

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Jonathan's avatar

In raw numbers; likely

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S Kolb's avatar

beginning to think more and more that AZ will end up being irrelevant.

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Jonathan's avatar

Not the tipping point state certainly but honestly, I think Gallego will wipe the floor with Lake (can't wait to see her go into crazy mode; They Stole It Again!!!!!!!)

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benamery21's avatar

Only 2% of interviews were conducted in Spanish in AZ. That’s a lousy Hispanic sample.

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benamery21's avatar

Sorry, poorly worded, 19% of the sample was Hispanic in AZ, to take the survey in Spanish required answering a callback, if they wrote their methodology correctly, only 2% not 2 percentage points, of the Hispanic respondents were surveyed in Spanish. That’s 3 people.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Aside from the obvious response rate issue, projections already predict that as much as a quarter of the electorate in Arizona alone will be Hispanic. In terms of statistics, that means this poll and prolly others, undersampled Hispanic voters by as much as 4-5%. In a swing state with a sizable share of Hispanic voters that's a damn big deal. I hope they're not trying to "correct" this with some weighing bs like saying "Dems are expected to win less Hispanic and black voters each year" which has minimal basis and is purely speculation.

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benamery21's avatar

In AZ 6% of the population is native, and they're at 2% of this sample.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

There's a decent possibility that Arizona may be the new Nevada in terms of unpredictable polling. Hispanic voters comprise a whopping 30% of the electorate roughly on both states alone and it's already tricky enough as it is to reach out to younger voters for polling. Combine that with the difficulty of training and getting multilingual staff and outreach to many voters who may otherwise be unreachable. This is also often true with Asian voters who also make up a sizable, tho much smaller share of the electorate. If that wasn't enough Arizona also has a decent chunk of indigenous voters, who are often hard to reach and the language barriers there are even more challenging. Hard to say whether the pollsters are overcompensating for any MAGA effect or not. Still, just look at the AZ Governor race and see how wildly off the polls were, and mind you this was including many left leaning and reputable nonpartisan pollsters too.

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LennyLiberal's avatar

The regional cross tabs mirror what I consider to be our path to victory in Pennsylvania: running up the score in Allegheny (67-31) while closing the gap in South Central PA (47-50) to compensate for slippage in Philly (77-20) and a clear loss in the West (39-56).

Kamala should also do much better than reported for the Philly suburbs (53-43), assuming that includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. She'll win the latter three by a minimum 15 (more likely a minimum 20, possibly 30+ in DelCo and MontCo) while winning Bucks by +/- 5.

Definitely still a toss-up for sure, but considering the EV trends and polling from non-partisan sources, I'd rather be us.

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Jonathan's avatar

I'm not convinced of any slippage in Philly(Imo running up the raw margin in philly is attainable)

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LennyLiberal's avatar

I hope you're right, and you very well could be. In 2020, Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philly shifted noticeably right; my worry is they'll continue to slip this election, too. The Philly early vote is also lagging other Dem counties. Fingers crossed for a strong showing on election day.

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Andrew's avatar

She should do better. That’s why Trump is going after his own territory so hard bc it’s his best way of countering suburban/exurban areas growing more tired of him.

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Jonathan's avatar

Agreed

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