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Tim Nguyen's avatar

There's a decent possibility that Arizona may be the new Nevada in terms of unpredictable polling. Hispanic voters comprise a whopping 30% of the electorate roughly on both states alone and it's already tricky enough as it is to reach out to younger voters for polling. Combine that with the difficulty of training and getting multilingual staff and outreach to many voters who may otherwise be unreachable. This is also often true with Asian voters who also make up a sizable, tho much smaller share of the electorate. If that wasn't enough Arizona also has a decent chunk of indigenous voters, who are often hard to reach and the language barriers there are even more challenging. Hard to say whether the pollsters are overcompensating for any MAGA effect or not. Still, just look at the AZ Governor race and see how wildly off the polls were, and mind you this was including many left leaning and reputable nonpartisan pollsters too.

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