5 Comments
User's avatar
⭠ Return to thread
LennyLiberal's avatar

The regional cross tabs mirror what I consider to be our path to victory in Pennsylvania: running up the score in Allegheny (67-31) while closing the gap in South Central PA (47-50) to compensate for slippage in Philly (77-20) and a clear loss in the West (39-56).

Kamala should also do much better than reported for the Philly suburbs (53-43), assuming that includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. She'll win the latter three by a minimum 15 (more likely a minimum 20, possibly 30+ in DelCo and MontCo) while winning Bucks by +/- 5.

Definitely still a toss-up for sure, but considering the EV trends and polling from non-partisan sources, I'd rather be us.

Expand full comment
Jonathan's avatar

I'm not convinced of any slippage in Philly(Imo running up the raw margin in philly is attainable)

Expand full comment
LennyLiberal's avatar

I hope you're right, and you very well could be. In 2020, Hispanic neighborhoods in North Philly shifted noticeably right; my worry is they'll continue to slip this election, too. The Philly early vote is also lagging other Dem counties. Fingers crossed for a strong showing on election day.

Expand full comment
Andrew's avatar

She should do better. That’s why Trump is going after his own territory so hard bc it’s his best way of countering suburban/exurban areas growing more tired of him.

Expand full comment
Jonathan's avatar

Agreed

Expand full comment