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benamery21's avatar

Only 2% of interviews were conducted in Spanish in AZ. That’s a lousy Hispanic sample.

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benamery21's avatar

Sorry, poorly worded, 19% of the sample was Hispanic in AZ, to take the survey in Spanish required answering a callback, if they wrote their methodology correctly, only 2% not 2 percentage points, of the Hispanic respondents were surveyed in Spanish. That’s 3 people.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Aside from the obvious response rate issue, projections already predict that as much as a quarter of the electorate in Arizona alone will be Hispanic. In terms of statistics, that means this poll and prolly others, undersampled Hispanic voters by as much as 4-5%. In a swing state with a sizable share of Hispanic voters that's a damn big deal. I hope they're not trying to "correct" this with some weighing bs like saying "Dems are expected to win less Hispanic and black voters each year" which has minimal basis and is purely speculation.

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benamery21's avatar

In AZ 6% of the population is native, and they're at 2% of this sample.

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