Aside from the obvious response rate issue, projections already predict that as much as a quarter of the electorate in Arizona alone will be Hispanic. In terms of statistics, that means this poll and prolly others, undersampled Hispanic voters by as much as 4-5%. In a swing state with a sizable share of Hispanic voters that's a damn big …
Aside from the obvious response rate issue, projections already predict that as much as a quarter of the electorate in Arizona alone will be Hispanic. In terms of statistics, that means this poll and prolly others, undersampled Hispanic voters by as much as 4-5%. In a swing state with a sizable share of Hispanic voters that's a damn big deal. I hope they're not trying to "correct" this with some weighing bs like saying "Dems are expected to win less Hispanic and black voters each year" which has minimal basis and is purely speculation.
Aside from the obvious response rate issue, projections already predict that as much as a quarter of the electorate in Arizona alone will be Hispanic. In terms of statistics, that means this poll and prolly others, undersampled Hispanic voters by as much as 4-5%. In a swing state with a sizable share of Hispanic voters that's a damn big deal. I hope they're not trying to "correct" this with some weighing bs like saying "Dems are expected to win less Hispanic and black voters each year" which has minimal basis and is purely speculation.
In AZ 6% of the population is native, and they're at 2% of this sample.